TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point With Teresa Appleton
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
2 Sep, 2009
Thursday closed the day higher with the Russell 2000 (RUT) +1.16%, Nas 100 (NDX) +1.12%, Nas Composite (COMPX) +1.06, S&P 500 (SPX) +.90 and the Dow +.49% on the day. The rally came on very weak volume and didn't dress to impress with the gains. Rising on light volume after a big advance like we saw on Wednesday is suspect, especially into the job's data. The VIX closed at 23.19 just under the 200dma and 10% under the 10dma. The TRIN closed very bullish at .46. Gold closed up $4.70 to $1257.80 and oil up $1.11 up $75.02 a barrel.
The Nas Composite and Nas 100 closed into 50dma 2204.30 and 1830.28. The S&P 500 and the Dow closed over the 50dma after spending 14 days under the key moving average. With the turn in the last two days the market has left a higher low and is forming a right shoulder in an inverted head and shoulders pattern. The market has to return to the August highs to get to the neckline on the bullish pattern and we are only half way there. So plenty of time to form this shoulder and move around before the bulls can really take hold. Which means plenty can happen, but having said that to form a shoulder on light volume is fine. I expected a light volume digestive day and other than the fast the digestive was a slow lift it delivered. I would have preferred an inside day to digest Wednesday's move. Which leaves the market short term overbought going into the job's data.
After the bell there were rumors that the Obama economic team is looking at another stimulus package. I'm not sure if we'll hear more on that into Friday, but we'll be listening. If the job's data comes in worse than expected we are likely to see the market dip quickly. Once the 10:00 data is out the market could lighten up and get really quiet leading into the long weekend. Monday the markets are closed for Labor Day and that is usually a show stopper on folks stepping away early to start the weekend. Keep an eye on oil, if Hurricane Earl increases in intensity and a broader area is evacuated that could be the catalyst to drive the market higher once we settle off the job's data release.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Friday 8:30 NonFarm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings, 10:00 ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Friday pre market CPB and nothing after the bell.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
1 Sep, 2009
Wednesday closed the day up huge with the Russell 2000 (RUT) +3.80%, Nas 100 (NDX) +2.97%, Nas Composite (COMPX) +2.97%, S&P 500 (SPX) 2.95%, and the Dow +2.54%. Volume came in mixed with the NYSE lighter and the Nasdaq higher on the day. The late day grind killed the volume that was outpacing for the first half of the day. The TRIN closed very bullish at .26 and the VIX at 23.89. Gold closed down $2.50 to $1247.70 an ounce and oil up $1.99 to $73.91 a barrel.
The days lift took the market back to August 23rd levels and out of the range we spent the last six days in. The drop off the August 9th highs to the lows on August 27th had very little retracement, todays gain retraced at least 38.2% of those losses all in a single move. That leaves us with an expanded move that now needs a digestion day to catch our breath. That doesn't mean the market will deliver that much needed rest but we will certainly keep in mind things could be very digestive and a narrow range. That would also leave us with a quiet day ahead of the Job's data on Friday morning.
The futures indexes did not test the daily pivots. They did close outside of R3, which is very extended and unusual. That leaves us to look for some retracement early on and a move to retest the days high. Be very cautious if the market can't break Wednesday's high and holds range, that would be the first clue the market is holding range for a narrow day. ES has 1085.50 resistance and then into 1092.50. Support is 1069.25 to keep handy and in mind on any retracement, if that doesn't hold we could see 1061 yesterday's low test.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Revised NonFarm Productivity, 8:30 Revised Unit Labor Costs, 10:00 Pending Home Sales, 10:00 Factory Orders, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 NonFarm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings, 10:00 ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Thursday pre market DLM, MOV, SCMR, and after the bell COO, FNSR, HRB, SEAC, TTWO, ULTA. Friday pre market CPB and nothing after the bell.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
31 Aug, 2009
Tuesday closed the day split with modest wins and losses. The Russell 2000 (RUT) +.05%, Dow +.04%, and the S&P 500 (SPX) +.03% and the Nas 100 (NDX) -.26% and Nas Composite (COMPX) -.28% on the day. The day closed in the range the market has held for 6 days now. Each index closed the day with a spinning top, mid range very neutral. The TRIN closed at .82 and the VIX at 26.05. Gold closed up $11.20 to $1250.40 an ounce and oil down $2.78 to $71.92 a barrel.
With closing 6 days in range the key support is still below the broader markets and the market continues to wind in this spot for a move. The line in the sand support still holds with the Nas Composite over 2113.88 78.6%, NDX 1746.85 78.6%, SPX 1036.23 78.6% and 10036.70 61.8% on the Dow (charts below) after all testing and holding today. The market is still a possible inverted head and shoulders if we hold this support and keep this right shoulder forming to turn up. The other possibility that I outlined last night is still intact too with the bear flag. Leaving those two possibilities still on the table as long as the market chops in range.
With the volume increasing today, it was the last day of the month. We will look for that to continue into Wednesday and even pick up each day as we go into Friday's job's data. That doesn't mean the range will change Wednesday, but the market is wound for a move. With the 6 days of digestion keep in mind that the market likes to move on odd numbers, will that be 7 or hold us still? With the SOX breaking the years low, there is some real weakness in the semi's. Banks are also right on the years low 43.30 2/5/10 and that didn't help to keep the bulls around today either.
Into Wednesday economic data will once again be the focus and provide the market with a glimpse into what Job's are doing when we hear from ADP. With the neutral tone the market is holding we still don't have a lot of bias. The A/D and U/D were up and down, leaving us with little to work with as we move into Wednesday. Until we leave this range we remain unbiased for direction.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Wednesday 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts, 8:15 ADP NonFarm Employment Change, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI, 10:00 Construction Spending, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing Prices, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, Vehicle Sales all day. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Revised NonFarm Productivity, 8:30 Revised Unit Labor Costs, 10:00 Pending Home Sales, 10:00 Factory Orders, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 NonFarm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings, 10:00 ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Wednesday pre market HNZ, JOSB, JOYG, ZLC and after the bell HOV, MATK. Thursday pre market DLM, MOV, SCMR, and after the bell COO, FNSR, HRB, SEAC, TTWO, ULTA. Friday pre market CPB and nothing after the bell.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
30 Aug, 2009
Monday left the day weary and kept the indexes in the five day range. The indexed closed down with the NDX -1.09%, Dow -1.38%, SPX -1.47, COMPX -1.56 and the RUT -2.43%. The markets volume fell along with the indexes to come in about half of Friday's. That is terrible participation, but it is likely to be the lightest we see this week. The VIX closed at 27.21 on the days high and the TRIN at 3.62 very bearish. Gold closed up $1.50 to $1239.40 and oil down 47 cents to $74.75 a barrel.
The five day range is still holding the markets and the key support is just below the broader markets still. By holding range the market is still in the same formation Friday left. The Nas Composite holds over 2113.88 78.6%, NDX 1746.85 78.6%, SPX 1036.23 78.6% and 10036.70 61.8% on the Dow (charts below) after all testing and holding this past week. Those are key levels of support and still holds as the line in the sand for the bulls. If we hold here a very symmetrical shoulder could form for an inverted head and shoulders on the daily charts. The pattern triggered would signify a higher low and a bullish pattern by holding here and turning back up. However, the other possibility with this 5 day digestion which began with a gap down on the 24th could be a bear flag forming. Low level digestion after an impulsive opening
The futures indexes did test the daily and weekly pivots early in the day. It wasn't until the final hour that we broke the 10ish point range the ES has played in throughout the day. The final hour sell off expanded our range and left us on the lows at the close. The ES broke 1054 and now has 1042.75 support nearby. The NQ dropped 1775 and now we watch for 1754.75 to test. The TF fell through 605.70 and now 598.40 is nearing as a key level. The sell off's light volume leaves the market more neutral than we would be if there was volume on the drop. This light volume is due in part because summer is coming to an end and we are leading into a 3 day weekend.
Friday brings the big economic data, so I expect volume to increase throughout the week and we'll watch for the bear flag or the inverted head and shoulders, two complete opposites for the market. Leaving us at the line in the sand and very neutral. The range bound market will eventually move, but needs to do so with volume to mean anything and hold any weight for continuation.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Tuesday 9:00 S&P/CS Composite 20 HPI y/y, 9:45 Chicago PMI, 10:00 CB Consumer Confidence, 2:00 FOMC Meeting Minutes. Wednesday 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts, 8:15 ADP NonFarm Employment Change, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI, 10:00 Construction Spending, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing Prices, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, Vehicle Sales all day. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Revised NonFarm Productivity, 8:30 Revised Unit Labor Costs, 10:00 Pending Home Sales, 10:00 Factory Orders, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 NonFarm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings, 10:00 ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Tuesday pre market DG, ENER, ISLE and after the bell APSG, DAC. Wednesday pre market HNZ, JOSB, JOYG, ZLC and after the bell HOV, MATK. Thursday pre market DLM, MOV, SCMR, and after the bell COO, FNSR, HRB, SEAC, TTWO, ULTA. Friday pre market CPB and nothing after the bell.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
29 Aug, 2009
Friday closed the day green across the broader markets leaving the RUT +2.83%, Dow +1.65%, SPX +1.65%, COMPX +.164% and the NDX up +1.27% on the day. Volume closed higher on the day for the only accumulation day in the past week. The week did close modestly red on the broader markets. The TRIN closed at .53 bullish on the day and the VIX at 24.42. Oil closed up $18.3 at $75.19 on the day and gold closed up $4.80 to $1242.50 a barrel.
The daily and weekly index charts left nice support hammers on the day/week. The Nas Composite holds over 2113.88 78.6%, NDX 1746.85 78.6%, SPX 1036.23 78.6% and 10036.70 61.8% on the Dow (charts below) after all testing and holding this past week. Those are key levels of support and still holds as the line in the sand for the bulls. If we hold here a very symmetrical shoulder could form for an inverted head and shoulders on the daily charts. Would signify a higher low and a bullish pattern by holding here and turning back up.
The ES closed over 1060.50 38.2%, staying over it will be the key to higher ground for the ES now. Keeping over 1060.50 leads us to 1075 and onto 1085.50. Support is 1054 and 1042.75 as key areas. The NQ closed just over 38.2% 1789.25 by the skin of its teeth and now holding over will be key. The next steps up are 1817 and onto 1837. Support on the NQ is 1775 and 1754.75. The TF has 619 and onto 623.10 and 633. Support is 605.70 and 598.40 on the TF. A lot of data this week with Job's being the big carrot at the end of the week. The week will close out August and it will also lead the market into the last big weekend of summer. Labor day marks the end of summer and will hopefully bring participation back to normal levels in the market.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Monday 8:30 Core PCE Price Index, 8:30 Personal Spending, 8:30 Personal Income, 1:30 FOMC Member Bullard Speaks. Tuesday 9:00 S&P/CS Composite 20 HPI y/y, 9:45 Chicago PMI, 10:00 CB Consumer Confidence, 2:00 FOMC Meeting Minutes. Wednesday 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts, 8:15 ADP NonFarm Employment Change, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI, 10:00 Construction Spending, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing Prices, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, Vehicle Sales all day. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Revised NonFarm Productivity, 8:30 Revised Unit Labor Costs, 10:00 Pending Home Sales, 10:00 Factory Orders, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 NonFarm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings, 10:00 ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Monday pre market nothing and after the bell SEED, WINN. Tuesday pre market DG, ENER, ISLE and after the bell APSG, DAC. Wednesday pre market HNZ, JOSB, JOYG, ZLC and after the bell HOV, MATK. Thursday pre market DLM, MOV, SCMR, and after the bell COO, FNSR, HRB, SEAC, TTWO, ULTA. Friday pre market CPB and nothing after the bell.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
26 Aug, 2009
Thursday closed the day to the downside with the NDX off -1.22%, COMPX -1.06 %, RUT -.84%, SPX -.76 % and Dow -.73% on the day. The volume was down today making for another day of diminishing participation. The days drop erased most of yesterday's gains in a slow motion retracement. The TRIN closed at 1.80 bearish on the day and the VIX at 27.37. Gold closed flat on the day at $1241.30 and oil up 84 cents to $73.36 a barrel.
The day started out looking bullish and strong over Wednesday's high. But after that first hour the bulls started to walk away and let the market sink slowly. The first hours volume was light and didn't really impress the bulls with any strength to stay around. Breaking back through Wednesday's high and retracing into 78.6% fib support doesn't look great for the market. That leaves Wednesday as a one day wonder basically and now the volume is even lighter. We can expect Friday to just try to keep the support intact below us. The Nas composite fell into 2113.88 78.6% fib support, NDX 1764.13 70.7%, SPX 1045.56 70.7%, and the Dow 10036 61.8% fib support. I don't look at 70.7% as a key fib level, so the SPX and the NDX can still move onto 78.6% 1036.23 SPX and 1746.85 78.6% as key levels. If we drop there it is likely to accelerate to the downside and end Friday on a REAL red note, which would also end the week on a negative tone. Data isn't likely to be real upbeat, but Bernanke could stop the bleeding from negative data when he speaks at 10.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Friday 8:30 Prelim GDP, 8:30 Prelim GDP Price Index, 9:55 Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Revised UoM Inflation Expectations, 10:00 Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Friday pre market FRO, TIF and nothing after the bell.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Friday's pivot 1049.50, weekly pivot 1077. Intraday support: 1042, 1038-1037, 1030.50-1029.50 78.6% on daily, 1024.25 Resistance: 1049.50, 1053.75, 1056.50, 1060.50 38.2%, 1065.50 fills gap-1067.75, 1075, 1080.50
NQ (Nas 100 e-mini) Friday's pivot 1777.25, weekly pivot 1829.75. Support: 1765.25, 1758.50, 1750.50, 1747, 1744.75, 1736.50. Resistance: 1778.75, 1782.75, 1787, 1793, 1798, 1804.75, 1809.50 fills gap-1810.25, 1818, 1822.50-1824.75 TF (Russell 2000 e-mini) Friday's pivot 602.50, weekly pivot 614.40. Support: 596.10, 593.90, 592, 590.70, 589.70, 586.70, 584.80, 583.50, 581.60, 575.10. Resistance: 602.60, 604.30, 605.90, 607.20, 608.30, 611.20, 612.90, 615.20.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
25 Aug, 2009
Wednesday recovered Tuesday's losses and did so on light volume. Once again we miss the participation level for confirmation on a reversal despite the day leaving an engulfing candle. Dow closed +.19 %, SPX +.32%, COMPX +.83%, NDX +.87% and RUT +1.55% on the day. The TRIN closed at 1.14 near the days lows and the A/D and U/D closed on the days highs. The VIX moved from 28.92 highs to close at 26.70 just off the days low. Gold closed up $6.60 to $1240 and oil closed up 89 cents to $72.52 a barrel.
The day was really slow and didn't take hold until financials finally came in for some buying, late day seemed to be pushed by shorts doing some covering. After 5 days down it was time for a little upside, but remember it was on light volume. The support I outlined last night is still in place so keep it handy. The Nas composite fell into 2113.88 78.6% fib support, NDX 1764.13 70.7%, SPX 1045.56 70.7%, and the Dow 10036 61.8% fib support. I don't look at 70.7% as a key fib level, so the SPX and the NDX can still move onto 78.6% 1036.23 SPX and 1746.85 78.6% as key levels.
The ES closed over 1054.75 and we still have 1058 resistance to clear before the bulls can run. The NQ has 1795.50 and the TF 604.30 and onto 611.20 for a key area to clear. The futures did test the pivots today and tomorrow we look for the 1050 ES, 1782.50 NQ and TF 598.80 to test as well. I liked the run we had today but it was more of an oversold bounce because of the missing volume. Until we see a day with volume it is hard not to be suspect of the upside. Early strength tomorrow will be key to see buyers stay around, without it this maybe a one day wonder of a lift.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 Mortgage Delinquencies, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Prelim GDP, 8:30 Prelim GDP Price Index, 9:55 Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Revised UoM Inflation Expectations, 10:00 Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Thursday pre market DHT, FRED, PDCO and after the bell DLLR, JCG, NOVL, OVTI. Friday pre market FRO, TIF and nothing after the bell.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
24 Aug, 2009
Tuesday fell hard off the opening and ended the day just off the lows. The NDX closed off -1.82, COMPX -1.66, SPX -1.45, Dow -1.31 and RUT -1.17 on the day. The volume increased today which leaves a distribution day on the NYSE and Nasdaq. The TRIN closed at 2.21 bearish on the day and the VIX at 27.46 over last weeks highs. Gold closed up $3.70 to $1232.20 and oil down $1.47 to $71.3 a barrel.
The day left a gap overhead and a weak market took out last weeks lows. The Nas composite fell into 2113.88 78.6% fib support, NDX 1764.13 70.7%, SPX 1045.56 70.7%, and the Dow 10036 61.8% fib support. I don't look at 70.7% as a key fib level, so the SPX and the NDX can still move onto 78.6% 1036.23 SPX and 1746.85 78.6% as key levels. The Dow did blink below 10000, but that didn't seem to phase the market with a quick look and snapped back over. The daily charts all the key indexes closed under lower Bollinger band, but nothing else is oversold.
With the over 2 TRIN and the relentless selling we can look for some upside to retrace some of the losses. An early move up would give the market a quick breath and give us room to move. The TF look for 600.20-602.10 resistance, ES 1054.75 and onto 1058, NQ 1780.25 and to 1795.50 resistance. If we clear those levels a lot more upside is very likely to come in. A drop of Tuesday's low a drop under 1043.50 and onto 1038 would be key on the ES. NQ 1762.50 and onto 1745 support. We'll watch volume to continue to increase and to key off the economic data. Tuesday left the market weak off disappointing data on Existing Homes and now we have to look to Durable goods and New Home Sales. Because the market already dropped off existing homes the new homes would have to be really horrible to see that do additional damage. The market is ahead of that now and won't take it as badly if we come in light. A number in line or close would be a breath of fresh air for buyers.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Wednesday 8:30 Core Durable Goods Orders, 8:30 Durable Goods Orders, 10:00 New Home Sales, 10:00 HPI m/m, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 Mortgage Delinquencies, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Prelim GDP, 8:30 Prelim GDP Price Index, 9:55 Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Revised UoM Inflation Expectations, 10:00 Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Wednesday pre market AEO, ISLE, TOL and after the bell JDSU, SMTC, TIVO. Thursday pre market DHT, FRED, PDCO and after the bell DLLR, JCG, NOVL, OVTI. Friday pre market FRO, TIF and nothing after the bell.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
23 Aug, 2009
Monday closed the day down -1.32% on the RUT, NDX -.95%, COMPX -.92%, SPX -.40% and the Dow -.38%. The days volume was light coming in under Friday's on everything accept the NQ. The TRIN closed at 1.29 near the highs on the day and the VIX closed at 25.66 just over the 25.23 10dma. Gold closed the day down 20 cents to $1228.60 and oil down 73 cents to $73.11 a barrel.
The late day fall took hold and with the light volume it is very easy to push things to extremes quickly. That is likely to be the tone this week on and off anyway. Tuesday the economic data picks up and that is likely to help with volume and volatility. The drop brought the indexes to hold just over last weeks lows. Those lows are key support and a drop there would let the market see a much bigger fall into 10036.70 for the Dow, 2113.88 COMPX, 1783.60 NDX and onto 1746.85, the SPX 1056.11 and onto 1036.23. The momentum is still to the downside with the indicators still open to the downside, last weeks lows are the only wall in the way.
Futures did test daily and weekly pivots today, now the ES has 1050.50 support to watch, a break there leads us to look much deeper to 1029.5. The resistance we will need back over 1086.50 to look for any upside conviction. The NQ 1782 key support and resistance is 1846.50. The TF has 584.30 7/7 swing low and 626.30 resistance. I am looking for a weak start on the day and it won't take long to be oversold with the drop that ended the day. Then we'll look for a bounce to come in off a weak start on the day.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Tuesday 10:00 Existing Home Sales, 10:00 Richmond Manufacturing Index. Wednesday 8:30 Core Durable Goods Orders, 8:30 Durable Goods Orders, 10:00 New Home Sales, 10:00 HPI m/m, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 Mortgage Delinquencies, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Prelim GDP, 8:30 Prelim GDP Price Index, 9:55 Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Revised UoM Inflation Expectations, 10:00 Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Tuesday pre market BKS, BIG, MDT, and after the bell PSUN, RUE, PAY. Wednesday pre market AEO, ISLE, TOL and after the bell JDSU, SMTC, TIVO. Thursday pre market DHT, FRED, PDCO and after the bell DLLR, JCG, NOVL, OVTI. Friday pre market FRO, TIF and nothing after the bell.
NQ (Nas 100 e-mini) Tuesday's pivot 1819, weekly pivot 1829.75. Support: 1807, 1804, 1800, 1797.50, 1791, 1786.50, 1783. Resistance: 1819.25, 1826.75, 1833.50, 1840.25, 1845.50, 1850, 1856.50, 1859, 1866.25, 1873
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
21 Aug, 2009
Friday closed the day split with modest wins and losses on the day. The NDX and Nas Composite closed up and the SPX, RUT and Dow closed down. The week closed the same way with the split in the indexes. Volume was also split on the day with the NYSE higher and the Nasdaq slightly lower. It was a pretty lackluster day for options expiration and the last one of the summer. The TRIN closed at 1.69 bearish and the VIX 25.49 on the days lows still over the 23.36 200dma and 24.88 10dma. Gold closed down $5.40 to $1230 and oil down 98 cents to $73.45 an ounce.
The narrow range week and day was not normal for expiration week, but fairly normal for August. August just sets a try to get through the month and do so without a lot of damage on either side of the fence in the light volume. The upcoming week is full of economic data and very little to worry about for earnings. The SPX and the Dow hung onto 50% fib support off the July 1 lows to July 27th highs swing. The Nas Composite and Nas 100 continue to hold just over 61.8% fib support. The week's low is basically where we need to see the market hold over on each index to continue holding this support.
The ES has 1075.75, NQ 1829.5 and TF 612.5 38.2% resistance to clear to see any move higher. TF 604.10, NQ 1817.25, and ES 1065.50 support to look for. If we drop there we can look for last weeks lows to test (ES 1061.75, NQ 1800 and TF 599.90). Futures did test the weekly pivots and the daily everyday excluding Friday on the ES and TF, the NQ did test Friday. First thing we need to see is the range from Friday break to point the market in a direction to find volatility. Don't get excited if there is a lot of sitting and waiting this week, we could see August sit and not really do a lot for us. There will be opportunities, they will just be hit and miss throughout the week.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Monday 10:30 FOMC Member Hoenig Speaks. Tuesday 10:00 Existing Home Sales, 10:00 Richmond Manufacturing Index. Wednesday 8:30 Core Durable Goods Orders, 8:30 Durable Goods Orders, 10:00 New Home Sales, 10:00 HPI m/m, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 Mortgage Delinquencies, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Prelim GDP, 8:30 Prelim GDP Price Index, 9:55 Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Revised UoM Inflation Expectations, 10:00 Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Monday pre market SAFM, TUES and after the bell FMCN. Tuesday pre market BKS, BIG, MDT, and after the bell PSUN, RUE, PAY. Wednesday pre market AEO, ISLE, TOL and after the bell JDSU, SMTC, TIVO. Thursday pre market DHT, FRED, PDCO and after the bell DLLR, JCG, NOVL, OVTI. Friday pre market FRO, TIF and nothing after the bell.
TF (Russell 2000 e-mini) Monday's pivot 607, weekly pivot 614.40. Support: 606.70, 605.40, 604.10, 602.20, 599.90, 596.90, 594.10. Resistance: 612.50, 616.40, 620.40, 623.30, 625.90, 627.70, 631.20, 633, 636.60, 637.90.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
19 Aug, 2009
Thursday gave up the weeks gains and on heavier volume. The Russell 2000 fell -2.71 %, SPX -1.69%, Nas Composite -1.65%, Nas 100 -1.50% on the day. The distribution day brought in profit taking and sellers, the late day sell offs we,ve saw on Tuesday and Wednesday didn,t treat the market very well with follow through today. The VIX closed at 26.44 and the TRIN at 2.75 very bearish. Gold closed up $3.60 to $1235 an ounce and oil fell 99 cents to $74.43 a barrel.
With the TRIN closing well over 2 that sets the market up for an early bounce. After the bell HPQ and Dell reported earnings, both are currently trading lower. That maybe enough to push the market to move some in the globex but not a lot. A flat or down opening would set us up for a bounce, a higher close may limit the TRIN bounce and be short lived. With it being Friday of expiration we can look for the market to be digestive and a little lackluster to hold in the range the week already has in place.
The ES has 1068.75 support and then onto 1061 and 1053 for bigger targets below us. The NQ 1811.50, 1800 and 1782.50 support below us as key levels. The ES back over 1079.75 resistance to bounce into, if we can,t clear that our bounce is going to be short lived. The NQ 1830 and then 1842.25 for resistance overhead. Selling off on this heavier volume put the double tops we were looking at last night and they met the measured move on each index, it is about where we closed actually. So having seen that the projection we can look for the Thursday lows for support, any early weakness and off to a bounce.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Friday nothing due. Monday nothing due out. Tuesday 10:00 Existing Home Sales, 10:00 Richmond Manufacturing Index.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Friday pre market ANN, SJM, KIRK and nothing after the bell.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
17 Aug, 2009
Tuesday closed to the upside with the Russell 2000 +1.82%, Nas 100 +1.30%, Nas Composite +1.26%, S&P 500 +1.21% and the Dow +1.00% on the day. Volume came in as the market moved higher with a nice trend day gradually climbing for an accumulation day. The TRIN closed at .69 and the VIX at 24.33. Gold moved up $2.00 to $1228.20 an ounce and oil rallied to close at $75.77 +.53 a barrel.
The Dow closed over the 50dma and just under the 200dma and in the lower quadrant on the 8/11 fall. The Nas Composite filled the 8/11 gap and pierced the 50dma, still closing under that resistance. Nas 100 also filled the 8/11 gap and pierced both the 50dma and 200dma's, closing under both. S&P 500 filled the 8/11 gap, still closing in the lower quarter of the 8/11 range and just a step over the 50dma. The SPX has danced over and under this 50dma since mid July. Which means one day over does mean a bull rally. The move up did have the volume to support the move, but again one accumulation day doesn't guarantee continuation.
The weak close took the wind out of the sails on the bulls despite the strong market breadth. The ES needed to hold over 1089.25 and we closed just below, so that will be pivotal into Wednesday's open. Now 1089.25-1086.25 will be what we look to hold, otherwise this rally isn't likely to hold any of the gains. The NQ has 1845-1837.25 is the key area, the NQ dropped 1845 and now has 1837.25 support to hold or the rally is likely to give up all the gains. The TF 624.30 support and 619.60 needs to hold or look for lower ground. The day left a gap open and that isn't likely to stay open if we drop the supports outlined above. Taking out Tuesday's high would result in a bigger advance on the indexes.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Wednesday 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:00 CB Leading Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, 12:30 FOMC Member Bullard Speaks. Friday nothing due.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Wednesday pre market BJ, COCO, DE, STP, TGT and after the bell AMAT, BRCD, HOTT, LTD, NTAP, NTES, PETM. Thursday pre market PLCE, DKS, DLTR, GME, HNZ, ROST, SHLD, SPLS, WSM, and DELL, GPS, HPQ, INTU, MRVL, NDSN, CRM, WTSLA. Friday pre market ANN, SJM, KIRK and nothing after the bell.
TF (Russell 2000 e-mini) Wednesday's pivot 623.90, weekly pivot 624.70. Support: 619.60, 616.30, 614.50 fills gap-613, 610.50, 608.30, 605.70, 602.40, 598.20, 597.30. Resistance: 626.40, 627.90, 628.90, 630.20, 631.20, 634, 636.60, 637.90.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
16 Aug, 2009
Monday closed the day green across the broader markets on mixed volume. The NYSE came in lighter and the Nasdaq heavier than Friday. The recovery bounce on the indexes took us back to mid channel Thursday and Friday's action. The TRIN closed at 1.57 bearish and the VIX at 26.10 back to 10.5% off the 10dma. Gold closed up $9.40 to $1226 an ounce and oil down 15 cents to $75.24 a barrel.
Into Tuesday the market can look for early data to spark the volatility and bring in some volume for us. The volume should pick up as the market finds some reason to move. Data is a good reason and as we move into mid week of expiration. The Nas Composite and Nas 100 engulfed Friday's losses and the SPX and Dow left hammers for support. That is a bullish sign for the market if we get another up day to confirm the support in place. The Nasdaq Composite has 2155.29 61.8%, 1809.41 50%, SPX 1069.11 50% and Dow 10266.14 50dma and 10167.10 50% fib support just under each index. The Dow is still the only index sitting over a key moving average 50dma.
The ES has 1079.75 resistance clears we look for 1088 to test. The 1068.75 support stays in place the ES can still move higher. The NQ 1825.50 resistance and onto 1845 will be key for the NQ to get any upside movement. Support is at 1811.5-1807, staying over that line in the sand lets the market move higher.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Tuesday 8:30 Building Permits, 8:30 PPI, 8:30 Core PPI, 8:30 Housing Starts, 9:15 Capacity Utilization Rate, 9:15 Industrial Production. Wednesday 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:00 CB Leading Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, 12:30 FOMC Member Bullard Speaks. Friday nothing due.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Tuesday pre market ANF, HD, SKS, TJX, WMT and after the bell ADI, LZB. Wednesday pre market BJ, COCO, DE, STP, TGT and after the bell AMAT, BRCD, HOTT, LTD, NTAP, NTES, PETM. Thursday pre market PLCE, DKS, DLTR, GME, HNZ, ROST, SHLD, SPLS, WSM, and DELL, GPS, HPQ, INTU, MRVL, NDSN, CRM, WTSLA. Friday pre market ANN, SJM, KIRK and nothing after the bell.
NQ (Nas 100 e-mini) Tuesday's pivot 1818, weekly pivot 1847. Support: 1816.50, 1812.75- 1811.50, 1807, 1804, 1800, 1797.50, 1791, 1786.50, 1782.50. Resistance: 1825.50, 1833.25, 1838.25, 1841, 1845, 1852.25, 1859, 1866.50, 1873
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
15 Aug, 2009
Friday closed the day with a narrow range inside day in the red across the broader markets. The Dow closed off .16%, SPX -.40%, NDX -.72%, COMPX -.76% for a modest day on the broader markets. The volume fell off with the narrow range to hold the market very quiet. The week took back the last three weeks of gains. Pretty tight range for the last months so this isn't really saying a lot. The TRIN closed 1.18 slightly bearish and the TRIN at 26.24 about 12.5% off the 10dma. Gold closed the day down 70 cents to $1216.00 an ounce and oil down 34 cents to $75.40 a barrel.
The Nasdaq Composite has 2155.29 61.8%, 1809.41 50%, SPX 1069.11 50% and Dow 10266.14 50dma and 10167.10 50% fib support just under each index. The Dow is still the only index sitting over a key moving average 50dma. The CCI closed with divergence on the daily charts for the COMPX, SPX, NDX and Dow and the ADX is also very low down at 15. That low ADX tells us an impending move is coming and with the VIX more than 10% off the 10dma. I am looking for some quick movement to come into the market. The week has a lot of data, but also options expiration. Which usually brings in volatility and plenty of movement throughout the week.
Monday we'll look for a test of lower ground and for the market to find some upside. The ES still has a gap at 1064 from 7/21 to fill. Last week left 8/11 gap, 8/10 and 8/9 gaps open overhead. That leaves the market with some work overhead to clear up, but keep in mind the that can stay open for weeks/months. Breaking Friday's range should help to bring in volume and get the market moving early on.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Monday 8:30 Empire State Manufacturing Index, 9:00 TIC Long Term Purchases, 10:00 NAHB Housing Market Index. Tuesday 8:30 Building Permits, 8:30 PPI, 8:30 Core PPI, 8:30 Housing Starts, 9:15 Capacity Utilization Rate, 9:15 Industrial Production. Wednesday 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:00 CB Leading Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, 12:30 FOMC Member Bullard Speaks. Friday nothing due.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Monday pre market LOW, SYY and after the bell A, URBN. Tuesday pre market ANF, HD, SKS, TJX, WMT and after the bell ADI, LZB. Wednesday pre market BJ, COCO, DE, STP, TGT and after the bell AMAT, BRCD, HOTT, LTD, NTAP, NTES, PETM. Thursday pre market PLCE, DKS, DLTR, GME, HNZ, ROST, SHLD, SPLS, WSM, and DELL, GPS, HPQ, INTU, MRVL, NDSN, CRM, WTSLA. Friday pre market ANN, SJM, KIRK and nothing after the bell.
NQ (Nas 100 e-mini) Monday's pivot 1821, weekly pivot 1847. Support: 1812.75- 1811.50, 1806.25, 1797.50, 1786.50, 1782.50. Resistance: 1824, 1829.50, 1833.50, 1838.25, 1849, 1854, 1860.50-1862
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
12 Aug, 2009
Thursday closed the day red across the broader markets, the Nas Composite -.83%, NDX -.71, SPX -.53, RUT -.54 and the Dow -.56 closing on the days highs. Big gap down pressured the market early and a slow rise stepped in for most of the day to finish on the highs. Volume did not come in, which tells us the this drop was not viewed as a buying opportunity and shorts did not rush in to cover either. The TRIN closed bearish at 1.13 and the VIX at 25.73 12% off the 10dma. Gold rallied to close at $1216.50 +17.30 and oil fell $2.28 to $75.74 a barrel, levels we haven't seen for a month.
The SPX, NDX, COMPX all are back under the 200dma and 50dma, the Dow dropped the 200dma and now sits on the 50dma. The COMPX support 2155.29 61.8%, NDX 1809.41 50% and 1783.60 61.8%, SPX 1082.84 38.2% and 1069.11 50%, Dow 10297.60 38.2%-10265.18 50dma supports need to be watched. 61.8% is very critical to hold or this drop has a lot more fuel than the bulls want to see as we head into the second half of August, which is typically lighter volume. Lighter volume allows for fewer traders to push the market in the least resistant direction.
Thursday brought a bounce to work off Wednesday's drop. Now the market sits on support and we'll have to hold over the supports outlined above to see the buyers step in. Early upside could still come in for the market to test a bigger retracement. However, the bears still held on today and kept breadth negative throughout the day. The TF over 626.70, NQ 1819 and ES 1092 should be watched for. We clear those levels heavier buying could come in, but until then we look to sell into any strength.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Friday 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 Core Retail Sales, 8:30 Retail Sales, 8:30 CPI, 9:55 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, 10:00 Business Inventories, 11:30 FOMC Member Hoenig Speaks. Monday 8:30 Empire State Manufacturing Index, 9:00 TIC Long Term Purchases, 10:00 NAHB Housing Market Index. Tuesday 8:30 Building Permits, 8:30 PPI, 8:30 Core PPI, 8:30 Housing Starts, 9:15 Capacity Utilization Rate, 9:15 Industrial Production. Wednesday 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:00 CB Leading Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, 12:30 FOMC Member Bullard Speaks. Friday nothing due.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Friday pre market ADES, CTFO, JCP, and nothing after the bell. Monday pre market LOW, SYY and after the bell A, URBN.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Friday's pivot 1078.25, weekly pivot 1116.50. Intraday support: 1074.50, 1068.75, 1064.50, 1061, 1053 Resistance: 1083.50, 1087.25, 1092, 1097.50, 1101.50, 1105.25
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
11 Aug, 2009
Wednesday closed the day very red across the broader markets. The Nas Composite -3.00%, NDX -2.83%, SPX -2.81 %, Dow -2.49% and RUT –4.01, with a TRIN that closed at 5.24 the second highest TRIN in 2010. June 29th closed at 6.06, leaving 5.24 the 2nd highest and 7/16 at 4.96 to round out the top three TRINS on the year. The VIX is back over the 200dma and closed at 25.39. Gold closed up $1.70 to $1199.70 and oil down $2.23 to 78.02 a barrel.
June 29th the 6.06 TRIN did not bring much of a bounce on the 30th and even into July 1st, which has marked the intermediate low we've been lifting off. However, the opening on the 30th opened relatively flat so reflex snapback came in. The extreme close today with a gap down would likely be exhaustive and let the market bounce to work off the oversold conditions. That is the first scenario we look for. Flat opening some reflex lower is likely and a gap up would be the last thing we want to see and leave us flat footed most likely. I would look to sell into strength though, just very carefully.
With Cisco reporting earnings after the bell the market pushed lower in the globex session. CSCO closed at 23.68 and traded down to 21.91 off beating by 1 cent and pretty much in line revenues. Certainly did not blow the lid off anything and the conference call was pretty mixed outlook with Chambers thinking things are still slowing and presenting challenges. He doesn't usually promise a lot and likes to just deliver, so nothing was out of the ordinary to me.
Futures did not test the daily pivots and closed just under S3 on the NQ and TF, the ES was right on S3. The bounces were nonexistent and relentless selling throughout the day. The ES has 1081 support with 1068.75 as the next key area. The NQ 1834.25 support and 1811.50 support to follow. ES back over 1091 look for 1100.50 to test. The NQ back over 1856 and look for 1868.50 to test.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Import Prices, 10:00 FOMC Member Duke Speaks, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 Core Retail Sales, 8:30 Retail Sales, 8:30 CPI, 9:55 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, 10:00 Business Inventories, 11:30 FOMC Member Hoenig Speaks.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Thursday pre market EAT, KSS, PRGO, WEN and after the bell ADSK, BBI, JWN, NVDA, TRMA. Friday pre market ADES, CTFO, JCP, and nothing after the bell.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
10 Aug, 2009
Tuesday closed the day on the downside, but well off the days lows. Volume increased throughout the day almost doubling Monday's on futures and about 30% higher on the NYSE and Nasdaq. The Fed's announcement to use mortgage-bond proceeds to buy Treasuries, which theoretically will boost the economy. The TRIN closed at 1.38 and the VIX at 22.37 a barrel. Gold closed down $2.60 to $1200 and oil fell $1.23 to $80.25 a barrel.
Futures still did not take out last weeks highs 1127.75 highs need to open for a test into 1131.25, a break there we look for 1166.75 to test. Holding over 1110.50 will hold the bulls territory and help us push higher. A move under 1100.50 will leave us to look at 1093.50 sooner rather than later. The NQ over 1919.25 we look for an advance onto 1979.50. NQ holding 1884.75 lends a hand to the bulls to run to those higher levels, a drop of 1884.75 we look for 1864.50. The weekly pivots on the ES, NQ and TF did test today. Only the ES tested the daily pivot, leaving the NQ and TF no daily pivot on Monday and Tuesday.
Wednesday starts the day with economic data, which should provide us with some volatility. At 2:00 we will get a look at the Federal Budget and that will also be a market mover. The end of day rally recovered a lot of losses, however I am still skeptical and Tuesday's distribution day can lead the market lower. A weaker opening will not be surprising if the data comes in weak. A pick up of volume on the downside with the breadth Tuesday brought could really open the bears den. Until we take out last weeks high, I am still leaning lower.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Wednesday 8:30 Trade Balance, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 2:00 Federal Budget Balance. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Import Prices, 10:00 FOMC Member Duke Speaks, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 Core Retail Sales, 8:30 Retail Sales, 8:30 CPI, 9:55 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, 10:00 Business Inventories, 11:30 FOMC Member Hoenig Speaks.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Wednesday pre market CSC, M, and after the bell CSCO, PAAS, SLW, TK. Thursday pre market EAT, KSS, PRGO, WEN and after the bell ADSK, BBI, JWN, NVDA, TRMA. Friday pre market ADES, CTFO, JCP, and nothing after the bell.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
9 Aug, 2009
Monday closed the day green across the broader markets and on light volume. This is our August melt up on no volume action continuing. Which is very normal to see, the FOMC meeting Tuesday could help with that though and bring in a little more conviction to get us through August. The TRIN closed at 1.01 just slightly bearish and the VIX at 22.14, which left the day in a tiny range. Gold closed down $2.30 to $1203 and oil up 78 cents to $81.48 a barrel.
Into Tuesday the market is once again in a tiny range, but we did close the day on the highs and just over last weeks highs for the NDX and COMPX. The SPX and Dow closed just into last weeks highs. There isn't a lot of bet making ahead of the Fed's meeting, which is causing trade to stay very tentative. Plus it is August, we never expect a lot of anything in August. The good news is we are managing through August now and this too shall pass. The Fed is expected to leave its federal funds rate near zero, however another round of quantitative easing with the Fed buying Treasury Notes and securities for some additional liquidity into the system. That would likely excite the markets and let the bulls run.
Futures did not test the pivots today, that was hard to not scratch my head about. But that leaves us to look for the daily and weekly into Tuesday still to get a look. Last weeks 1127.75 highs need to open for a test into 1131.75, a break there we look for 1166.75 to test. Holding over 1098.25 will hold the bulls territory, 1093.25 drops the bears will be likely to come in and push us back to 1084.50 swing low and onto 1080.75. The NQ over 1919.25 we look for an advance onto 1979.50. NQ holding 1880 lends a hand to the bulls to run to those higher levels, a drop of 1880 we look for 1854.75.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Tuesday 8:30 Prelim Nonfarm Productivity, 8:30 Prelim Unit Labor Costs, 10:00 IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, 10:00 Wholesale Inventories, 2:15 FOMC Statement, 2:15 Federal Funds Rate. Wednesday 8:30 Trade Balance, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 2:00 Federal Budget Balance. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Import Prices, 10:00 FOMC Member Duke Speaks, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 Core Retail Sales, 8:30 Retail Sales, 8:30 CPI, 9:55 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, 10:00 Business Inventories, 11:30 FOMC Member Hoenig Speaks.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Tuesday pre market SMG, and after the bell CREE, URS, DIS. Wednesday pre market CSC, M, and after the bell CSCO, PAAS, SLW, TK. Thursday pre market EAT, KSS, PRGO, WEN and after the bell ADSK, BBI, JWN, NVDA, TRMA. Friday pre market ADES, CTFO, JCP, and nothing after the bell.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Tuesday's pivot 1123.50, weekly pivot 1116.50. Intraday support: 1117.75, 1112.50, 1108.50, 1103.75, 1100.50, 1098.25 gap fill. Resistance: 1126.75-1127.75, 1132, 1135.50, 1137.75-1138.25, 1144.50, 1149.25
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
2 Aug, 2009
Monday brought a nice rally day to the broader markets. In the last 10 weeks the market has had 5 consecutive down Monday's and now today markets the 5th consecutive up Monday. The volume was very light on this lift, which concerns me as usual. The VIX closed at 22.01 and the TRIN very bullish at .39. Gold closed down $1.80 to $1182.10 and oil up $2.39 to $81.34, back to levels we saw in May.
The Nasdaq Composite closed just under the July 27th swing high, the Nas 100 right into that swing high. The S&P 500 and the Dow closed just over the July 27th swing high and the Dow even closed over the June highs. The lift didn't quite put the daily charts into overbought territory. However, the intraday 65 minute chart did reach overbought territory and that leaves the market looking for a pullback. Another gap up would really exhaust the move, a gap down would work that off and let the bulls refuel.
The futures did not test daily or weekly pivots today. The ES is just under 6/21 highs 1129.5 and 1131.75 61.8% fib resistance. With the daily chart still grinding out an inverted head and shoulders that 1131.75 is a good spot to look at for the neckline. The measured move would be about 129 points over 1131.75 to 1260.75 new highs on the year. The NQ has 1900.75 7/27 highs, 1919.25 61.8% which is also a good spot for the neckline on the inverted head and shoulders. The NQ 221.25 measured move over 1919.25 to 2140.50 for the move. Those inverted head and shoulders have been in the making since early June so that would likely take months to develop. That neckline must first open that door for the patterns to trigger.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Tuesday 8:30 Core PCE Price Index, 8:30 Personal Spending, 8:30 Personal Income, 10:00 Pending Home Sales, 10:00 Factory Orders, Vehicle sales all day. Wednesday 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts, 8:15 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, 10:00 ISM Non Manufacturing PMI, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Non Farm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings, 3:00 Consumer Credit.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Tuesday pre market ADM, COH, DHI, DUK, MRO, MMC, MA, MGM, NYX, OSG, PFE, PG, THC, YRCW and after the bell APC, BBOX, CRA, ERTS, JCOM, NATL, PCLN, TRLG, UTI, WFMI, WMS, XL. Wednesday pre market AGU, CAM, LSE, DVN, GRMN, ICE, PHM, Q, and after the bell NDN, ALL, ATML, CECO, IPI, MUR, ONNN, PACR, PRU, SINA, RIG. Thursday pre market ATPG, BZH, BCRX, CAH, CBOE, CI, FTO, LIZ, ZEUS, OMG, OCR, and after the bell NILE, CF, CROX, EOG, HANS, MCHP. Friday pre market AES, AIG, DYN, and nothing after the bell.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Tuesday's pivot 1118.75., weekly pivot 1100.75. Intraday support: 1119, 1115.50, 1109, 1104.25, 1099.50-1098.25 gap fill. Resistance: 1124.50-1126.75, 1135.50, 1138.50, 1149.25
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
1 Aug, 2009
Friday left the market with a modest win on the NDX, COMPX, and SPX and a tiny loss on the Dow. All the broader indexes closed just off the highs after a very weak start in the deep red. Volume increased to close the month on the NYSE, Nasdaq and futures. The TRIN closed at 1.19 and the VIX at 23.50 on the days low, just on the 200dma. Gold closed up $13.20 to $1182.20 and oil up 69 cents to $79.05 a barrel.
The Nas Composite and S&P 500 sit just under the 200dma, NDX and Dow are still holding over that key moving average. The Nas composite, Nas 100 and S&P 500 closed just points below June's close and the Dow closed just points over June's close. July left the indexes with a spinning top and a much smaller range than June delivered. With the week ahead filled with economic data that will be the fuel for the market. We still have a lot of earnings flowing out as well.
Futures did test the weekly pivots last week but in the second half of the week. Daily tested everyday excluding Monday, so it was a good week for that. The ES over 1110.75 we look for 1118.75 last week high and under 1088.50 we look for 1077.75. The NQ over 1884.50 we look for 1900.75 and under 1847.5 we look for 1831.50 to test.
Historically the first day of August is red, the first 9 days of August are also historically weak. However, I think we see a strong start on the day because the market seemed to be finding buyers in any dip not sellers on each pop last week. The weak opening Friday's getting bought leaves me to look to see if the market can hold and climb from here. So we'll watch the levels above and let the market set the tone for us.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Monday 10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI, 10:00 Construction Spending, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing Prices, 10:15 Fed Chairman Bernanke to speak, 4:00 Geithner Speaks. Tuesday 8:30 Core PCE Price Index, 8:30 Personal Spending, 8:30 Personal Income, 10:00 Pending Home Sales, 10:00 Factory Orders, Vehicle sales all day. Wednesday 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts, 8:15 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, 10:00 ISM Non Manufacturing PMI, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Non Farm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings, 3:00 Consumer Credit.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Monday pre market AGN, CLX, NS, and after the bell MSTR, PFG, VRSN, VMC. Tuesday pre market ADM, COH, DHI, DUK, MRO, MMC, MA, MGM, NYX, OSG, PFE, PG, THC, YRCW and after the bell APC, BBOX, CRA, ERTS, JCOM, NATL, PCLN, TRLG, UTI, WFMI, WMS, XL. Wednesday pre market AGU, CAM, LSE, DVN, GRMN, ICE, PHM, Q, and after the bell NDN, ALL, ATML, CECO, IPI, MUR, ONNN, PACR, PRU, SINA, RIG. Thursday pre market ATPG, BZH, BCRX, CAH, CBOE, CI, FTO, LIZ, ZEUS, OMG, OCR, and after the bell NILE, CF, CROX, EOG, HANS, MCHP. Friday pre market AES, AIG, DYN, and nothing after the bell.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
28 July, 2009
Wednesday closed the day lower across the broader markets. Volume did come in lighter on the NYSE, Nasdaq and futures. The VIX closed at 24.25 and the TRIN at 1.30 bearish on the day. The U/D closed on the low of day while the A/D was off the lows, but still quite negative. Gold closed up $2.10 to $1160.10 and oil down 51 cents to $76.99.
Tuesday left the day with a hanging man, the market needed a lower close on Wednesday to confirm that. We did get that lower close to confirm a reversal bar, however one more element of confirmation is volume. Volume came in lighter which leaves us with a weaker reversal signal and not a true confirmation. The SPX dropped the 200dma with this fall and the COMPX is now sitting on top of it. This leaves us to wonder if we had a 2 day wonder over the key 200dma to get the bulls in and now leave them hanging here. Into Thursday volume needs to pick up to convince us of direction. A heavier volume drop would certainly be full of conviction to help see a reversal off Tuesday's high.
Into Thursday our day will start with economic data to create some volatility. Bad news is not what the bulls want to see right now. Earnings have been good overall and holding their own, but the market still has some nervousness with mixed economic data. Futures did test the daily pivots on Wednesday and now have support below us. The ES has 1092.75, NQ 1854.25 and the TF 644.10, dropping these levels would leave the market looking for significantly lower ground. A bounce back over 661.90 TF, NQ 1885.75 and the ES 1110.75 could let the bulls have a rally party. The volume will be key, heavier moving up or down will show the conviction and give the market the bias for continuation.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Advance GDP, 8:30 Advance GDP Index, 8:30 Employment Cost Index, 9:45 Chicago PMI, 9:55 Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Revised UoM Inflation Expectations.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Thursday pre market ADP, BG, CELG, CME, CL, SRAY, DPS, XOM, K, MOT, PTEN, POT, PDE, SNE, LUV, TSM, TNC, TYC, WM, WYNN, and after the bell AMGN, AMCC, CSTR, DSCM, FSLR, GPRO, KLAC, MXIM, MFE, MET, QSFT, RNWK, SUN, VSEA. Friday pre market CVX, CVH, FO, ITT, MRK, GAS, UPL, WY and nothing after the bell
NQ (Nas 100 e-mini) Thursday's pivot 1875.75, weekly pivot 1844.50. Support: 1865.25, 1860.50, 1856.-1854.25, 1846.75 Resistance: 1877.75, 1881.75, 1885.75, 1891.50, 1888.25
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
26 July, 2009
Monday brought the market dismal volume but a lift to continue Friday's move. The market closed on the highs after a slow climb up on very light volume. The range was tight and restricted throughout the day, no robust moves, just slow and narrow. The TRIN closed very bullish at .55 and the VIX at 22.73 just under the 200dma (23.38). The lowest close since May 3rd. Gold closed down $4.00 to $1183.80 and oil closed unchanged at $78.98 a barrel.
The ES cleared 1102.50 and moved up to 1111.75 closing on the highs of the day. Now we look to move onto 1127.50 the 6/21 day session high and 1129.50 globex high. Then we are a hop skip and a jump away from 1131.75 61.8% fib resistance. The NQ broke 1887.25 and move onto 1888.25 on the day. Now we look for a move to 1938.75 day session high on 6/21 and globex at 1941. No test of the daily or weekly pivots for any of the indexes. That is unusual and we look for those to test into Tuesday, however the weekly are going to be more of an effort to get that low.
The market does need a pullback off this slow lift and a gap up is likely to give us that entry on a pullback on the markets. A pullback would give us the fuel to continue onto the levels listed above. Without a pullback the volume will continue to disappear and leave us in a crawl with no real participation. This is end of month and that leaves us to look for volume to pick up into the weeks end. The market does have reason to pullback here with the divergence and overbought intraday conditions we closed with.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Tuesday 9:00 S&P/CS Composite, 10:00 Consumer Confidence, 10:00 Richmond Manufacturing Index. Wednesday 8:30 Core Durable Goods Orders, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 2:00 Beige Book. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Advance GDP, 8:30 Advance GDP Index, 8:30 Employment Cost Index, 9:45 Chicago PMI, 9:55 Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Revised UoM Inflation Expectations.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Tuesday pre market AKS, BP, CIT, DPZ, DD, ECL, LLL, LVLT, LXK, LMT, NDAQ, OXY, OXPS, SAP, TEVA, X, UA, VLO, and after the bell AET, BRCM, CEPH, DWA, IGT, MEE, NSC, PNRA, ULTI. Wednesday pre market BA, COP, GLW, GD, IACI, IP, LAZ, MHO, MSO, NEM, OSTK, PCAR, PFCB, SO, S, SU, WLP, and after the bell AEM, BMC, DRYS, ESRX, FARO, GG, HURN, LRCX, LOGI, LSI, MYL, OII, PMTC, PDLI, QLTY, RYL, TER, VAR, V, WLT, WCAA. Thursday pre market ADP, BG, CELG, CME, CL, SRAY, DPS, XOM, K, MOT, PTEN, POT, PDE, SNE, LUV, TSM, TNC, TYC, WM, WYNN, and after the bell AMGN, AMCC, CSTR, DSCM, FSLR, GPRO, KLAC, MXIM, MFE, MET, QSFT, RNWK, SUN, VSEA. Friday pre market CVX, CVH, FO, ITT, MRK, GAS, UPL, WY and nothing after the bell
NQ (Nas 100 e-mini) Tuesday's pivot 1880.50, weekly pivot 1844.50. Support: 1880.50, 1875.75, 1871.50, 1866.25, 1861, 1857, 1853.50, 1847.75. Resistance: 1888.25-1889.75, 1900.50, 1904.75, 1911.25, 1916.75, 1937.50-1938.75
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
25 July, 2009
Friday closed the day on the green side of the fence to make for 4 of the last 5 days booking gains on the broader markets. Volume was lower on the NYSE and futures and the Nasdaq had higher participation than Thursday. The TRIN closed at 1.04 slightly bearish on the day and the VIX at 23.47 on the lows of the day. Gold fell $6.50 to $1189.10 and oil down 32 cents to $78.98 a barrel.
The week put in the lows early on and finished on the highs, leaving only Wednesday as a down day for the market. Friday's lift took the market just over the prior weeks highs and all but the SPX are just over the 200dma. Stochastics, CCI, RSI and MACD are still moving higher. The weekly charts the markets held over 38.2% on the drop from the end of June. Last weeks move up after the prior weeks digestive range let the market stay in the range we've seen since mid May. That is still digestive but now the market needs to decide on direction to break the channel we've sat on. If the Dow stays over 10269.80 we can look for 10789.5, SPX stays over 1090.71 we can look for 1175.11, NDX stays over 1837.32 we can look for 1982.51, COMPX stays over 2242.26 we can look for 2433.81 longer term move to come in.
ES over 1102.50 we can look for 1127.50, NQ over 1887.25 we can look for 1938.75, TF over 656.50 we can look for 676.00 to test. If the ES drops 1082.25 we can look for 1071 and onto 1064 gap fill, TF drops 631.10 we are likely to see 619.20 and onto 610.70 gap fill. The NQ 1838 and onto 1816.75/1815.50 gap fill.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Monday 10:00 New Home Sales. Tuesday 9:00 S&P/CS Composite, 10:00 Consumer Confidence, 10:00 Richmond Manufacturing Index. Wednesday 8:30 Core Durable Goods Orders, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 2:00 Beige Book. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Advance GDP, 8:30 Advance GDP Index, 8:30 Employment Cost Index, 9:45 Chicago PMI, 9:55 Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Revised UoM Inflation Expectations.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Monday pre market RSH, SOHU and after the bell ADVS, CF, LM, MAS, UHS, VLTR, ZRAN. Tuesday pre market AKS, BP, CIT, DPZ, DD, ECL, LLL, LVLT, LXK, LMT, NDAQ, OXY, OXPS, SAP, TEVA, X, UA, VLO, and after the bell AET, BRCM, CEPH, DWA, IGT, MEE, NSC, PNRA, ULTI.
COMPX (Nasdaq Composite) closed +23.58 at 2269.47. Support: 2227.63, 2201.79, 2183.39. Resistance: 2298.21, 2341.11, 2354.16
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
20 July, 2009
Tuesday closed the day on the highs after a very weak opening. Volume moved with the advance and put in a heavier day over Monday's participation. The VIX closed on the days low at 23.93 (also the 200dma) and the TRIN closed at .80 bullish on the day. The A/D and U/D lines closed on the highs. Gold closed up $10.10 to $1992 and oil also rallied to close up 62 cents to $77.52 a barrel.
After the bell AAPL traded higher off earnings, VMW, SLM and BSX joined Apple in the earnings rally. Stocks trading lower off earnings were YHO, JNPR, STX, GILD. Futures had an initial reaction to Apple, but they've settled in now. Apple accounts for 20% of the weight on the Nasdaq 100 so it really does matter. As Apple goes so does the market is a little overstated, but certainly worth paying attention too. The markets lift recovered most of Friday's drop leaving us right back in last weeks range.
Into Wednesday the Nas 100 and Nas Composite is getting very close to the 200dma and 50dma. The SPX is nearing the 50dma, the Dow did test the 50dma today. The market has to continue into Wednesday, a sell off on good news out of AAPL would be a little painful to the market. The Fed Chairman testifies in the afternoon and that is going to be closely monitored and probably stall the market in the morning waiting on him to testify. Earnings are likely to provide an opening moving then we could see the market park and wait on Bernanke.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Wednesday 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 2:00 Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies,. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 9:30 Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies, 10:00 Existing Home Sales, , 10:00 CB Leading Index, 10:00 HPI m/m, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday nothing due out.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Wednesday pre market MO, BLK, KO, ETN, EMC, GENZ, MS, OSTK, TXT, UTX, LCC, USB, WFC and after the bell ADS, AMLN, BIDU, CA, EBAY, FFIV, ISIL, ISRG, NFLX, NVEC, QCOM, SBUX, XLNX. Thursday pre market MMM, ALK, T, CAT, CAL, CY, LLY, FITB, JBLU, KEY, NOK, NUE, OXPS, PENN, STJ, HOT, STI, TRAD, TRV, UNP, UPS, WSO, XRX, ZMH and after the bell AMZN, AXP, COF, CAKE, CMG, CYMI, DECK, ETFC, FLEX, HGSI, KLAC, LSCC, MSCC, MSFT, MOS, NCR, OSIP, PMCS, QLGC, RMBS, SNDK, STM, VASC. Friday pre market F, GAP, HON, MCD, R, SLB, TROW, TASR, VZ, and after the bell nothing due out.
COMPX (Nasdaq Composite) closed +24.26 at 2222.49. Support: 2184.31, 2160.83, 2137.35, 2103.92. Resistance: 2240.13dma-2256.95, 2281.15, 2298.21, 2341.11
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
13 July, 2009
Tuesday brought a strong day for the broader markets on heavier volume. A kick off of earnings season brought in participation for the accumulation day. The TRIN closed at .43 very bullish and the VIX tested and held the 200dma (23.44) with a close at 24.56. Gold closed the day up $15.10 to $1213.80 and oil up $2.20 to $77.15 a barrel. Broader participation left the market closing just off the highs.
The Nas Composite, Nas 100 and S&P 500 closed right into 38.2% resistance we've watched all week for a test of resistance. The 50dma and 200dma are all right in this same zone on those indexes. The Dow cleared 38.2% and the 50dma, leaving the 200dma just at the days close. Internets, banks and brokers were the top three sectors and the bottom were telecom, hardware and healthcare. Semi's fell in the middle of the pack on the day. Financials were barely outpaced by internets, which I believe helped hold the Nasdaq today and that late day pop helped balance the advance. The Nas 100 (NDX) was the weakest of the indexes with the Russell 2000 as the strongest. Strength led by financials and small caps is rarely sustainable, so we'll see if the strength holds into Wednesday.
After the bell Intel (INTC) reported earnings and rallied the stock as well as tech. Futures are up nicely in the afterhours thanks to the INTC's report. YUM Brands (YUM) reported and fell in the afterhours session. Now seeing the market hold the gains will be key into Wednesday. With the NDX, COMPX and SPX right into resistance the market may need to come off a strong opening to find some buyers on a retracement to sustain the rally. Gapping day after day starts to wear its welcome out after a few days. Leaving the market overbought and ready for retracement. Today closed the 6th consecutive day to the upside, that also wears on the market and hurts participation, everyone is afraid of buying a top as the market hits key resistance.
Futures did not test the daily pivots today. The weekly are still untested and today's advance left more room to fall for a test there. The range expansion today left for better action than we saw on Monday, but the ES and NQ were not on the same page for much of the day. That was the tech and financials split on the day keeping us on two pages. Now into Wednesday we will see a very awake tech market off the INTC report and financials will start to look to Thursday to hear from JPM. Which leaves us to look for rotation and some pullback early in the day off a big opening.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Wednesday 8:30 Core Retail Sales, 8:30 Retail Sales, 8:30 Import Prices, 10:00 Business Inventories, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 2:00 FOMC Meeting Minutes. Thursday 8:30 PPI, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Core PPI, 8:30 Empire State Manufacturing Index, 9:15 Industrial Production m/m, 10:00 Fed Chairman Nomination vote, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, Tentative Treasury Currency Report. Friday 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 CPI, 9:00 TIC Long Term Purchase, 9:55 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Wednesday pre market ASML, TXI and after the bell LSTR, MAR. Thursday pre market SCHW, FCS, JPM, MTG, NVS, PPG and after the bell AMD, GOOG, JBHT, PLCM, NCTY. Friday pre market BAC, C, GE, MAT, and nothing after the bell.
SPX (S&P 500) closed +16.59 at 1095.34. Support: 1083.71, 1065.44, 1044.41, 1029.45. Resistance: 1111.91 200dma-1115.36, 1131.23, 1140.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
11 July, 2009
Friday closed the day on the weeks highs with an inside bar on the week. The week did close higher and took back most of the prior weeks losses. Volume closed lighter on Friday leaving the week with two accumulation days and two light volume lifting days. The TRIN closed bullish at .75 and the VIX at 24.98 just over 24.44 200dma. Gold closed up $13.90 to $1210 and oil closed up 65 cents to $76.09 a barrel.
Weekly charts has the RSI turned up, CCI sitting back over -100 line but still negative, Stochastics flattening out and the MACD also flattening both are still pointed down. The lower Bollinger pierced and held for support on the week. On the daily charts on the broader markets CCI just closed over the 0 line, RSI is headed up, stochastics pointed up nicely and the MACD is crossed up. The Dow has 10242.20, SPX 1090.71, NDX 1837.32, and the COMPX 2242.26 for 38.2% resistance overhead. The advance off the July 1st lows is a nice move, but 38.2% resistance overhead is still going to challenge the bulls. With the volume dropping off Thursday and Friday we'll need to see that return to break the resistance with conviction. Otherwise this is nothing other than a bounce for the market off the July 1st lows.
Futures did test the weekly pivot last week and the daily for the ES traded 2 of the 4 days, the NQ and TF were 3 of the 4. The ES 1081 resistance is key to move higher and through that level onto 1101.5. The NQ has 1836 gap 6/28 and onto 1846.75 to watch for on any strength next week. Key support is 1062 for the ES and 1790 on the NQ. That leaves futures with a lot of room on both sides to move. Friday's range was narrow and the action was really to hold the weeks gains. Most of the day was in a tiny range that finally broke late day to broaden the range.
Monday could start slow unless news picks up. Economic data picks up after Monday's dead day and we kick off earnings season with AA on Monday afternoon. The market will start focusing on earnings to look for guidance into the next quarter. Which will give us some nice volatility. We'll also keep an eye on the 200dma for the VIX to offer support.
INDU (Dow) closed +59.04 at 10198.03. Support: 10137.20, 10097.30, 10068.90, 9977.36, 9928.26. Resistance: 10226, 10242.20 38.2%, 10311.80, 10365.23 200dma, 10436.20
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Monday nothing due out. Tuesday 8:30 Trade Balance, 10:00 IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, 2:00 Federal Budget Balance. Wednesday 8:30 Core Retail Sales, 8:30 Retail Sales, 8:30 Import Prices, 10:00 Business Inventories, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 2:00 FOMC Meeting Minutes. Thursday 8:30 PPI, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Core PPI, 8:30 Empire State Manufacturing Index, 9:15 Industrial Production m/m, 10:00 Fed Chairman Nomination vote, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, Tentative Treasury Currency Report. Friday 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 CPI, 9:00 TIC Long Term Purchase, 9:55 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Monday pre market APP, SHAW and after the close AA, NVLS. Tuesday pre market FAST, INFY and after the bell ADTN, INTC, YUM. Wednesday pre market ASML, TXI and after the bell LSTR, MAR. Thursday pre market SCHW, FCS, JPM, MTG, NVS, PPG and after the bell AMD, GOOG, JBHT, PLCM, NCTY. Friday pre market BAC, C, GE, MAT, and nothing after the bell.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
7 July, 2009
Wednesday brought another lift to the broader markets for a nice rally day. The bulls came out and stayed around to not give up ground today. The volume left another accumulation day on the NYSE and Nasdaq, futures the ES came in higher than Tuesday but the NQ and TF were slightly lighter. The TRIN closed very bullish at .34 and the VIX fell to 26.84. Gold lifted $2.90 to $1198 and oil was also up $2.09 to $74.07 a barrel.
The continuation of Tuesday's advance showed the bulls can come out and play. Wednesday was a much bigger day of participation and held the gains. Tuesday managed to eke out a gain but not as strong, seeing volume increase is also a sign of buyers and some short covering. Banks led the key sectors with the SOX as a close second in the advance. Showing we had tech and financial support on the advance. Intraday the lift did leave the market overbought on a shorter time frame (60, 13 and 5 minute). The daily is still fine, but an early pullback is likely to happen to let the market catch its breath and digest Wednesday's big move up.
Into Thursday the market will see economic data in the pre market. The week is light on data and a short one, so Thursday's will be the highlight of the week in that department. The ES cleared 1052.5 38.2% fib resistance, the NQ is not over 1790, which is what we need to see now. It took the Nasdaq awhile to get in gear and clear Tuesday's highs, but once it did we saw the Nasdaq pick up steam and increase the markets momentum. If the NQ gets over 1790 we look for 1818.50 and onto fill the gap at 1836 from 6/28. The ES stays over 1052.50 and onto 1066.75 and the gap at 1071. If the NQ cannot clear 1790 pulling back to 1754.5 and the ES to 1039.25.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, 11:00 Crude Oil Inventories, 3:00 Consumer Credit. Friday 10:00 Wholesale Inventories.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Thursday pre market COMS, HELE, ISCA and after the bell LWSN, NUHC. Friday pre market PSMT and nothing after the bell.
COMPX (Nasdaq Composite) closed +65.59 at 2159.47. Support: 2121.59, 2081.19, 2063.51-2061.14. Resistance: 2167.95, 2201.01, 2220.65 fills gap, 2234.07
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
5 July, 2009
Friday left the day modestly red across the broader markets. Volume fell off a cliff after the first hour and came in significantly lighter due to the oncoming three day weekend. The TRIN closed bearish at 1.78 and the VIX is sitting just over the 10dma with the 30.12 close. Oil ended the week at $72.14 off 8.5% on the week and gold lost 3.6% on the week closing at $1211.50 an ounce.
Friday had a narrow range inside day on the Nasdaq Composite, Nas 100 and S&P 500, the Dow traded to new lows on the week and bounced back to close within Thursday's range. It was the typical action heading into a long weekend for the broader markets. Tuesday is likely to have a slow start and then find some momentum into the shortened week. With the daily charts at single digits on the stochastics, RSI at 30 and the inside day from Friday the market is poised for a move. Last weeks major losses left the market sitting very negative and just over key supports. The SPX and Dow have the 50dma about to cross through the 200dma. The NDX and COMPX still have room before the lines start to converge.
The key support COMPX 2050.23, NDX 1667.82, SPX 1006.99, and the Dow 9396.61 is 38.2% support off the March 2009 lows to the April highs. Those levels let us slip the next leg down will be significantly lower. On the weekly charts the indexes sit on the lower BB, RSI is 38-39, CCI -118-125 and stochastics at 23-26 still leaving some room to fall into 38.2% supports. With the daily still oversold and the weekly getting close the market can look for some upside to give us some relief.
Futures did not test the weekly pivots last week and now the markets are likely to sit well under them on the opening Tuesday. The market has been very consistent with going to the weekly pivot for 4 weeks and missing that 5th week. Now with this week missing that was one on and one off. We'll see if we return to the 4 of 5 rotation that we've seen all year. The ES back over 1025, NQ 1740.25 and TF 603.20 would lead us to look for the weekly pivots ES 1033.50, NQ 1756.75 and TF 610.30.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Tuesday 10:00 ISM Non Manufacturing PMI. Wednesday nothing due out. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, 11:00 Crude Oil Inventories, 3:00 Consumer Credit. Friday 10:00 Wholesale Inventories.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Tuesday nothing due out. Wednesday pre market FDO and after the bell WDFC. Thursday pre market COMS, HELE, ISCA and after the bell LWSN, NUHC. Friday pre market PSMT and nothing after the bell.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
1 July, 2009
Thursday closed the day red across the broader markets on higher volume. Tuesday was very high volume and we dipped a little below that on Wednesday, Thursday came in the heaviest of the week (so far). The VIX closed with a big shooting star on the day at 32.86. The TRIN closed neutral at .93, with the late day bounce the TRIN came off significantly higher bearish levels. Gold closed down $38.10 to $1207.80 an ounce and oil closed down $2.68 to $72.95 a barrel.
Thursday's losses were trimmed with the late day lift. The market struggled with Wednesday's closing range all day and left the day to close modestly red. The bulls did come in and buying was very present in the participation off the lows. Now with Job's data Friday morning in the pre market we'll have to buckle our seatbelts. Economic data keeps dealing blows to the market with disappointments rolling out. The day left possible reversal candles and even with the late day big lift, the market is still oversold. Looking for early retracement is what I would be looking for if the Job's numbers were not due out. If they come close to consensus the market is likely to take that as a good thing and still see the upside. A big disappointment will take the air of the market.
With all the talk about the "Death Cross", I'm less bearish. Too many on that bus for me before we see some retracement. A death cross historically is unusual and happens maybe once a year for a market. That isn't always bearish, often it is a reflex lower and a snap back to mark a bottom. That happens as frequently as continuing lower. The 50dma crossing the 200dma is not necessarily death, despite the name. So keep a watch for that and we are another day or two down from that happening on the broader markets. The Dow is about 60 points away, SPX only 3 points, the NDX 56 points and Nas Composite 50 points.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Friday 8:30 Non Farm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings, 10:00 Factory Orders. Monday US Markets are closed. Tuesday 10:00 ISM Non Manufacturing PMI. Wednesday nothing due out. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, 11:00 Crude Oil Inventories, 3:00 Consumer Credit. Friday 10:00 Wholesale Inventories.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Friday nothing due out. Monday and Tuesday nothing due out. Wednesday pre market FDO and after the bell WDFC. Thursday pre market COMS, HELE, ISCA and after the bell LWSN, NUHC. Friday pre market PSMT and nothing after the bell.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
29 June, 2009
Tuesday closed the day very red for the broader markets on heavy volume. The days volume was very heavy and increased as the day progressed and continued lower. The TRIN closed at 6.06 the highest for the year, the next closest close was May 20th at 4.38. The VIX moved 17.68% on the day to close at 34.13, still under the 6/8/10 37.38 highs. Gold closed the day up $4.10 to $1242.70 an ounce and oil down $2.31 to $75.94 a barrel.
The day started with a gap down and continued to flush throughout the day. The market closed off the lows leaving the last hour to be the best bounce of the day. The daily candle pierced through the lower Bollinger band on each of the broader indexes. Leaving a small lower shadow for a hammer on daily chart for a support candle. Wednesday will have to trade higher to confirm that candle on the day. The big range on the day is likely to be very digestive into Wednesday. The stochastics on the daily indexes reached 10 or lower, leaving us oversold. RSI is nearing 30, CCI -180 area for each. That leaves the market exhausted. A gap lower would put us very oversold and exhausted looking for a bounce. A strong start maybe sold into early and then become narrow and digestive.
With the huge TRIN over 6 and the big move in the VIX, that also leaves us to look for some early upside to come in. Es back over 1046 and the NQ 1785 could lead to some exhaustive month end buying. On the weekly charts 38.2% support is nearing: the Nasdaq Composite 2050.23, Nas 100 1667.82, S&P 500 1006.99 and the Dow 9396.61 fib support is the big area below us. February lows are just over those levels to be watched: COMPX 2100.17, NDX 1712.89, and the Dow 9757.55 years low are under us. The SPX fell through the 1040.78 prior years lows, leaving it as the only index to retrace all the years gains. Look for an early bounce and for weakness to continue if economic data continues to disappoint.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Wednesday 8:15 ADP Non Farm Employment Change, 9:00 FOMC Member Duke Speaks, 9:45 Chicago PMI, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, Tentative Treasury Currency Report. Thursday 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI, 10:00 Pending Home Sales, 10:00 Construction Spending, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing Prices, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, All Day Total Vehicle Sales. Friday 8:30 Non Farm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings, 10:00 Factory Orders.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Wednesday pre market APP, AM, MON, and after the bell APOL, SCHN, XRTX. Thursday pre market STZ and FLOW. Friday nothing due out.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
22 June, 2009
Tuesday closed the day on the lows in the red and we had a pick up in volume for a distribution day. Monday's fall was on light volume, but Tuesday's had more participation. The VIX closed at 27.05 just under the 27.44 10dma and the TRIN very bearish at 3.82. Gold closed the day up 10 cents to $1240.80 and oil down 71 cents to $77.90 a barrel.
The Nasdaq Composite closed under 2264.49 38.2% and the SPX dropped 1096.68 38.2% support. The NDX held over 1869.81 38.2% and the Dow held 10274.60 38.2% support. The Dow and the SPX dropped the 200dma's with this drop. The market is still holding over the lows from last week which are getting a lot closer with today's drop. Monday's fall had a bounce late day to bring the market off the lows, Tuesday's drop didn't bring in a late day bounce. Showing no short covering and short term the indexes are oversold.
The ES fell under 1093.5, leaves us to see if the market remains under that key support and moves onto 1071.50 still well below us. The NQ has 1873.75 support then onto 1833.50 for big key levels. The TF fell through 648.20 38.2% support and now if the index stays below that key support we look for 631.10 support. The NQ did not drop 1873.75 38.2% support so the ES and TF could move back through that support to not confirm today's drop. Tuesday did test the daily pivots and bounced off them quickly.
Into Wednesday the market is not going to be in a hurry to bounce with no urgency in the bears to cover shorts. However, the TRIN did close over 2..well over at 3.82. That extreme move along with the oversold conditions we left at the close an early bounce to work some of this move off should be expected. Don't rule out continuation to the downside once the bounce is sold into. The Fed statement in the afternoon is probably going to give us the lunch doldrums and keep us in range until we see any statement change. I am not expecting a rate change, but we may have some indication of when the Chairman is thinking about changing rates.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Wednesday 10:00 New Home Sales, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 2:15 FOMC Statement, 2:15 Federal Funds Rate. Thursday 8:30 Core Durable Goods Orders, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Durable Goods Orders, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Final GDP, 9:55 Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Revised UoM Inflation Expectations.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Wednesday pre market RAD, SMTS and after the bell BBBY, DRI, NKE, PAYX. Thursday pre market DFS, LEN, MKC and after the bell FINL, HRB, ORCL, PALM, RIMM, SMSC. Friday pre market AZZ, KBH and nothing after the bell.
NDX (Nasdaq 100) closed -15.30 at 1880.54. Support: 18709-1869.81, 1834.01 200dma. Resistance: 1901.57, 1919.17 50dma, 1943.75, 1970.70.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
20 June, 2009
Friday delivered a very narrow range day, the narrowest since April 26th which was the peak of the 2010 move up. Although Friday did close modestly green the tiny range was on higher volume than the market had seen on Thursday. The market was stalling and playing tug of war for quadruple witching to go out with a whimper. The TRIN closed at 1.00 and the VIX at 23.95 about 18% off the 10dma (watch for 23.14 200dma). Gold closed up $6.80 to $1258.30 and oil up 39 cents to $77.18 a barrel.
Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday all closed in range and left the three possible reversal candles in range. The Nasdaq 100 sits into the 50dma while the Nas Composite, S&P 500 and the Dow sit just under 50dma. The week closed higher and broke the three week range by a very small move up. Tuesday's advance was the gain on the week, every other day was so narrow it just held the move. That leaves the market ready for a move and the bulls in the right seat. Having said that with the VIX so far off the 10dma and the TRIN over 1 4 of the last 5 days. An early pullback into 38.2% of the weeks range would be an orderly pullback. If the market holds that level the continuation is to the upside and we'll need the upper Bollinger to open up for a test of the 50dma's on the SPX and Dow.
Futures did not test the weekly pivot last week. The daily were hit and miss throughout the week too. A gap up could be exhaustive and then bring a pullback. I would rather see the pullback without a gap, but that still leaves the market in need of a pullback. The winding move the market had for three days is leaving us ready to move in a volatile way.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Monday nothing due out. Tuesday TBA Geithner Testifies on TARP, 10:00 Existing Home Sales, 10:00 HPI m/m, 10:00 Richmond Manufacturing Index. Wednesday 10:00 New Home Sales, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 2:15 FOMC Statement, 2:15 Federal Funds Rate. Thursday 8:30 Core Durable Goods Orders, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Durable Goods Orders, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Final GDP, 9:55 Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Revised UoM Inflation Expectations.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Monday nothing pre market and after the bell SONC, SCS. Tuesday pre market CCL, JEF, WAG and after the bell ADBE, JBL, RHT. Wednesday pre market RAD, SMTS and after the bell BBBY, DRI, NKE, PAYX. Thursday pre market DFS, LEN, MKC and after the bell FINL, HRB, ORCL, PALM, RIMM, SMSC. Friday pre market AZZ, KBH and nothing after the bell.
SPX (S&P 500) closed +1.47 at 1117.51. Support: 1110.19 200dma-1108.79, 1090.89, 1072.29. Resistance: 1130.29, 1139.15 50dma, 1151.41
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
15 June, 2009
Tuesday brought a nice rally across the broader markets on heavier volume than the markets saw on Monday. That leaves us with an accumulation day on the NYSE and Nasdaq, the first since May 21st for both indexes. We've had such split volume it has been one sided and unbalanced. The TRIN closed at .25 the lowest level on the year and the VIX at 25.87 about 17% off the 10dma. Gold closed up $11.50 to $1236 and oil up $1.82 to $76.94 a barrel.
The bullish day closed on the highs and had a nice bullish A/D and U/D lines. The Semi's, hardware and internets took the lead today and never looked back. Financials underperformed and did keep the SPX on a slower track. Overall the day was healthy across the board and with this low TRIN close we can expect some follow through. The Dow and SPX also cleared the 200dma, the first close over since May 19th. NDX, COMPX, SPX and the Dow all closed just over the 38.2% fib resistance we have been watching since Monday. Now the broader markets have to stay over that key level that is not support. A close back under those levels would not confirm this break and put the bears in charge. (38.2% Dow 10330.70, SPX 1109.17, NDX 1872.30 and COMPX 2291.32)
The early data is likely to set the days tone. After the big advance on Tuesday we can also look for digestion and a pullback. The market has been very range bound and is not trying to move out of range. Breaking Tuesday's highs will take the market higher and closer to the 50dma's overhead. Only the NQ gave the daily pivot a look, the ES and TF did not take a look at them. It is very unusual to not test the daily pivot and now the Es has missed it for two days. I will look for 1104 to get many tests for a rotational zone on the ES Wednesday.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Wednesday 8:30 Building Permits, 8:30 PPI, 8:30 Core PPI, 8:30 Housing Starts, 9:15 Capacity Utilization Rate, 9:15 Industrial Production, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 CPI, 8:30 Current Account, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:00 CB Leading Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday nothing due out.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Wednesday pre market APP, FDX, SMTS and after the bell IHS. Thursday pre market ATU, DFS, KR, PIR, SFD, WGO and after the bell INXI, SMOD. Friday nothing due out.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Wednesday's pivot 1104, weekly pivot 1070. Intraday support: 1103.75, 1101, 1094.75, 1090.25, 1085.50 fills gap. Resistance: 1113.50, 1117.75, 1121, 1124.25, 1135.25, 1141.75
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
13 June, 2009
Friday left a nice move to the upside for the bulls, but on lackluster volume once again. This volume has been decreasing throughout the week. Going into quadruple witching we should see volume increasing so keep that on watch for next week. The TRIN closed at 1.07 which is bearish, giving me some concern about the days lift on light volume. The VIX closed at 28.79 which is almost 12% off the 10dma. Gold closed up $7.80 to $1230 and oil down $1.70 to $73.78 a barrel.
The weekly chart left support hammers right in the same range the market has parked for three weeks. Holding over the May lows is key and with Thursday and Friday's advance the market was able to hold and leave another support candle. Indicators on the weekly indexes look to be flattening out, they have been pointed down so a flattening out is needed to turn up when we sit in range. Not seeing that sharp “V” turn when you the market is range bound is normal and expected. That requires patience to break and move up for that cross up on the stochastics, MACD, CCI and RSI.
Looking at the daily charts the CCI moved into positive territory on Friday, RSI is moving up, stochastics are pointed up and the MACD turned up. The Nas 100 and Nas Composite closed just over the 200dma on Friday. Monday will have to see continuation with another advance and increasing volume to confirm this move. Not selling off Friday was the first step, the second is seeing continuation. The first spot of resistance is the June 3rd gap left open on the broader markets and then onto 38.2% fib resistance. Dow gap 10255.28, 200dma 10313.29, 10330.70 38.2% and support to hold over is 9757.55. SPX gap 1105.67, 1107.95 200dma, 1109.17 38.2% resistance levels and support 1042.17. NDX 1872.30 38.2% and 1895.66 fills gap for resistance and the support to hold over is 1824.48 200dma and 1770.46. COMPX 2291.32 38.2% and gap fills 2303.03 for resistance and support will be 2139.46.
Monday could be a light day on the market, with no economic data and plenty of reason to digest the advance on Friday could leave us a little on the quiet side. I don't expect any big surprises at this point, but we've woke to some very unusual Monday's lately. So expect anything is now the way we start out week. Barring any world wide “issues” we'll look for a quiet start on Monday. A minor pullback and continuation to the upside is my bias from here. My son informed me that the USA keeping England to 1-1 is a very lucky event for the world, so we'll go with that and look for a move out of the three week range this week. (By the way my son is 11 and sees the world through a soccer ball, so take the view Monday it is round and bounces).
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Monday nothing due out. Tuesday 8:30 Empire State Manufacturing Index, 8:30 Import Prices, 9:00 TIC Long Term Purchases, TBA NAHB Housing Market Index. Wednesday 8:30 Building Permits, 8:30 PPI, 8:30 Core PPI, 8:30 Housing Starts, 9:15 Capacity Utilization Rate, 9:15 Industrial Production, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 CPI, 8:30 Current Account, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:00 CB Leading Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday nothing due out.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Monday pre market CHDX and after the bell LZB, MDZ, RENT. Tuesday pre market BBY, FDS and after the bell CLC. Wednesday pre market APP, FDX, SMTS and after the bell IHS. Thursday pre market ATU, DFS, KR, PIR, SFD, WGO and after the bell INXI, SMOD. Friday nothing due out.
SPX (S&P 500) closed +4.76 at 1091.60. Support: 1073.12, 1061.30, 1052.89, 1040.78 5/25 lows, 1023.13, 1006.99. Resistance: 1107.95 200dma-1109.17 38.2%, 1130.29, 1145.15
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
9 June, 2009
Wednesday brought a nice opening with some buying to continue Tuesday's advance, however mid lunch the market started to drift lower and accelerated the sell off to close red. The volume was slightly lighter than Tuesday's. The VIX closed at 33.73 and the TRIN at 1.29 bearish on the day. Gold closed down $15.40 to $1230.20 an ounce and oil up $2.39 to $74.38 a barrel.
Into Thursday we'll kick off the morning with early data and get onto Futures rollover as the market opens. We can expect volume to be split between the June (M) and September (U) contracts. That can create a little tug of war with volume being split for the first hour. Once through that first 30-60 minutes we can look for things to settle in and be fairly normal. The June volume will decrease and be insignificant to us after that first hour.
The reversal on Wednesday pulled the rug on the bulls. The market remains in range and just over Tuesday's lows. A break of Tuesday's lows leaves the market to look for the February lows. The ES did test the weekly pivot Wednesday, the NQ and TF did not. The ES back over 1061.50 and onto 1067.75 should be looked at as bullish. The NQ 1792.75 and onto 1804.50 resistance targets for early strength. The market returned to the sell into strength, we'll watch for that until we see the weeks high break. That would convince us that the bulls are around for longer than a bounce. Otherwise we look for the lows and onto February lows.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Thursday 8:30 Trade Balance, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, 2:00 Federal Budget Balance. Friday 8:30 Core Retail Sales, 8:30 Retail Sales, 9:55 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, 10:00 Business Inventories.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Thursday pre market APWR, DLM, LULU, SCHS and after the bell FNSR, INXI, NSM. Friday nothing due out.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Thursday's pivot 1061.50, weekly pivot 1077.75. Intraday support: 1052.75, 1049, 1047, 1041.25, 1038.50 5/25 lows, 1031.25, 1025.25, 1021.25-1020.25. Resistance: 1061.50, 1067.75, 1072, 1077.75, 1080.25, 1085.75, 1090.75, 1094.25
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
6 June, 2009
Friday closed the day in the red on slightly higher volume. The day sold off and became heavier throughout the day with very shallow bounces until the bell finally saved the day. The TRIN closed at 2.34 very bearish and the A/D along with U/D lines closed near the lows. The VIX closed at 35.48 just over the 10dma. Gold closed up $7.20 to $1217.20 and oil down $3.10 to $71.51 a barrel.
The Nasdaq Composite is under the 200dma, Nas 100 closed just over it leaving us stuck in the tug of war still. The SPX and Dow fought with the 200dma all week and still remain under that key moving average. The indexes sit just over the May 25th lows, that is the key support. Below that support moves us back to the February 5th lows. The market still has fear and the unknown keeps rocking the boat with some of the EU countries. The RSI and CCI turned down on each index, the stochastics are tipping down and the MACD is also trying to turn down. Follow through to the downside would allow the stochastics and MACD to turn down and open up. The market has set in this range for two weeks marking time.
Into next week we have a lot of economic data and a very wound up market. After two weeks in range it is time to see some movement. Until the market breaks there is no clear direction, but after Friday's close an early bounce onto Monday should be watched for. The ES back over 1077, NQ 1853 and TF 646.20 would open the door to the bulls camp. A break of the May 25th lows will likely head significantly lower. The NQ still has a gap open at 1791.50 because it lagged the ES and TF in this drop, they filled those gaps already. The semiconductors hold just over the 200dma which has helped the NQ to hold up better than the banks or brokers. We will watch for any change in tech and a drop to 340.38 200dam on the SOX. Banks are into the 200dma 47.82, brokers have been under for weeks. A weak start Monday and an early bounce is where we look.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Monday 3:00 Consumer Credit. Tuesday 8:25 FOMC Member Duke Speaks, 10:00 IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, 7pm FOMC Member Hoenig Speaks. Wednesday 10:00 Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies, 10:00 Wholesale Inventories, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 2:00 Beige Book, 4:00 Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks. Thursday 8:30 Trade Balance, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, 2:00 Federal Budget Balance. Friday 8:30 Core Retail Sales, 8:30 Retail Sales, 9:55 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, 10:00 Business Inventories.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Monday pre market GIII and after the bell CHP, FCEL, PBY, THO. Tuesday pre market DG, TLB and after the bell PLL, TUTR, TTWO. Wednesday pre market CIEN, TITN, MTN and after the bell MW, SHFL. Thursday pre market APWR, DLM, LULU, SCHS and after the bell FNSR, INXI, NSM. Friday nothing due out.
COMPX (Nasdaq Composite) closed -83.86 at 2219.17. Support: 2193.28, 2176.26, 2140.53, 2100.17. Resistance: 2248.65, 2287.10-2291.32, 2322.07-2337.91 50%, 2384.49-2388.12 50dma.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
2 June, 2009
Wednesday erased the last two days of losses on the broader markets. Volume came in mixed again today with the NYSE lighter and the Nasdaq higher than Tuesday's performance. Futures were all lighter than Tuesday's volume. The TRIN closed very bullish at .29 and the VIX at 30.17 on the lows of the day. Gold fell $4.30 to $1222.60 and oil up 28 cents to $72.86 a barrel.
The day took the build the steam slowly approach to moving up and putting in nice gains across the board with very healthy market breadth. The indexes still sit under 38.2% fib resistance that will be key resistance to watch for. Dow 10341.20, SPX 1109.17, and the COMPX 2291.32 are the levels to watch for. The NDX 1872.30 38.2% did clear by 7 points. Now the index will need to stay over that level. The CCI is into 0 line on the daily charts, RSI is rising, stochastics are all pointed up and the MACD tipped up with the rally today. The market has set in range for four days and now has the job's data nearing. Our first glimpse will come from ADP and that is likely to give the market reason to move out of the four day range.
With the big VIX move and the incredibly low TRIN close I will look for some retracement into Thursday. Then for the trend to the upside to continue, UNLESS the ADP report gives the market something to worry about. I am not expecting any big surprises from Job's this week and leading into Friday's job's numbers from the government we are likely to see an active final 90 minutes. I don't think the market wants to get ahead of itself but we did see a nice test and hold of support below us on the 25th. That lets the bulls have the floor if we can move out of the four day range.
ES over 1106.75 last weeks high needs to clear for the ES to get moving into 1121. The NQ came through 1874.25 and now we can look for 1894.75 overhead. A drop through 1079.5 would give the ES a look down into the 1061.25 gap still open. The NQ should hold over 1849.25 or look for 1830.75 to get another test. The TF has 663.30-667.70 resistance and support at 646.60 and onto 636.40 gap fill if that doesn't hold.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Wednesday 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts, 10:00 Pending Home Sales, All day Vehicle Sales. Thursday 8:15 ADP Non Farm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Revised Nonfarm, Productivity, 8:30 Revised Unit Labor Costs, 10:00 ISM Non Manufacturing PMI, 10:00 Factory Orders, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, 11:00 Crude Oil Inventories, 11:15 Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks, 12:15 FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks, 1:15 FOMC Member Hoenig Speaks. Friday 8:30 Non Farm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Wednesday pre market DAKT, MDCI, ROLL, UNFI and after the bell APSG, CWTR, HOV, JOSB. Thursday pre market JOYG, STP, UTIW and after the bell COO, DCP, MATK, TTWO, ULTA. Friday pre market BTH, MPR and after the bell nothing due out.
NQ (Nas 100 e-mini) Wednesday's pivot 1845, weekly pivot 1826.50. Support: 1860.75, 1855, 1849.25, 1845, 1841, 1832.25-1831.50. Resistance: 1881.50-1883.25, 1891, 1894.75, 1903-1905, 1907.25, 1915, 1925
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
1 June, 2009
Friday closed the day red across the broader markets, the week closed the NDX, COMPX, SPX green and the Dow red. Volume fell off on Friday, going into a three day weekend that was to be expected even though it was the last day of the month. The TRIN closed at 2.38 very bearish and the VIX at 32.07 about 10% under the 10dma. Gold closed the day down 20 cents to $1211.70 and oil down 63 cents to $73.92 a barrel.
The Nas Composite, S&P 500, and the Dow had inside down days on Friday. The Nas 100 traded through Thursday's highs, but closed within Thursday's range and red. The indexes still have a gap open overhead from May 19th and one open from May 26th below Friday's close. Both will provide magnets for the market and also look to for support/resistance. The daily charts on the broader indexes have the CCI just under 0 line resistance, MACD the lines are together and tilted up, stochastics are crossed up, RSI is pointed up on each. That opens the door for the upside, but not without some drag on the move. The SPX and Dow both sit just under the 200dma, while the NDX and COMPX sit over the 200dma.
The final hour sold the market off and that was more nervousness about holding through a three day weekend. The market doesn't know what can happen so looks for profits in the unknown. Uncertainty makes the market nervous and not knowing if another Greece, Portugal or Spain could happen is unnerving. Also the South Korea incident wasn't far from investors mind and just getting through May was enough for the week. Moving into Tuesday we can look for a higher move on the markets IF there aren't any incidents over the weekend. NDX 1872.30, COMPX 2291.32, SPX 1109.17, Dow 10341.20 resistance should be watched for on any strength. The weekly pivot is under Friday's close and will be a rotational point on futures. Shortened weeks tend to move in spurts and take a little effort to get moving on Tuesday morning. So be patient and look for some upside early Tuesday.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Tuesday 10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI, 10:00 Construction Spending, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing Prices. Wednesday 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts, 10:00 Pending Home Sales, All day Vehicle Sales. Thursday 8:15 ADP Non Farm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Revised Nonfarm, Productivity, 8:30 Revised Unit Labor Costs, 10:00 ISM Non Manufacturing PMI, 10:00 Factory Orders, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, 11:00 Crude Oil Inventories, 11:15 Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks, 12:15 FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks, 1:15 FOMC Member Hoenig Speaks. Friday 8:30 Non Farm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Tuesday pre market nothing due out and after the bell PSS, SNDA. Wednesday pre market DAKT, MDCI, ROLL, UNFI and after the bell APSG, CWTR, HOV, JOSB. Thursday pre market JOYG, STP, UTIW and after the bell COO, DCP, MATK, TTWO, ULTA. Friday pre market BTH, MPR and after the bell nothing due out.
NQ (Nas 100 e-mini) Tuesday's pivot 1851.25, weekly pivot 1826.50. Support: 1847.50, 1842.50, 1835.75, 1826.50, 1822.25, 1817.50, 1809.25, 1796.25, 1786.50. Resistance: 1855, 1859, 1862.50, 1867.75-1868.25 fills gap, 1873.75, 1881.50, 1894.75
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
24 May, 2009
Tuesday closed the market with a modest loss on the Nas Composite and Dow, the S&P 500 along with the Nas 100 closed green. Although the day looks modest for the loss and gain, the days range was very large and a big reversal day. Closing on the days highs after being blood red on a very weak opening is a big day. The TRIN closed at .47 very bullish and the VIX at 34.61 just over the 34.20 10dma. Gold closed the day up $3.80 to $1197.80 and oil fell $1.46 to $68.75 a barrel.
The weak opening left the day looking for buyers on a big dip. It took the market a few running starts to get moving and it did take the full day to fill the gaps. However, that does show the bulls stepped in and the accumulation day on the SPX and NDX do show participation and the COMPX and Dow just missed the green close. The daily candles are nice support candles and possible reversal candles. Keep in mind we had that on Friday and that didn't confirm, so we need an up day to follow this move to confirm and give the market some confidence. Today's shake was off more European concerns and South Korea, that market now can digest this and try to advance.
The weak opening brought the market to very oversold levels and the day could be an oversold bounce and not confirm. The volume was steady throughout the day and the drop of last weeks low and to snap back in range is a good sign that it is more than shorts covering. A gap up on Wednesday could lead to a gap and go move, don't be quick to fade the move. If it sets up for us to fade we will, but the buying could come in and hold the gains. The daily pivots on futures did not test, that leads us to look for the PP to be more of a magnet into Wednesday. That would require a drop back into Tuesdays range and not let the market run to the upside with a pullback.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Wednesday 8:30 Core Durable Goods Orders, 8:30 Durable Goods Orders, 10:00 New Home Sales, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 8:30 Prelim GDP, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Prelim GDP Price Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Core PCE Price Index, 8:30 Personal Income, 8:30 Personal Spending, 9:45 Chicago PMI, 9:55 Revised Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 UofM Inflation Expectations.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Wednesday pre market AEO, FRED, TOL, ZLC and after the bell DBRN, HOKU, NTAP, TTWO, PAY. Thursday pre market BIG, COST, HNZ, SNSS, TIF and after the bell ESL, JCG, OVTI, SEAC. Friday pre market FRO and after the bell NCTY.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Wednesday's pivot 1062, weekly pivot 1094.50. Intraday support: 1061, 1056.50, 1052.25, 1049, 1046.25, 1044.25, 1038.50. Resistance: 1077.50, 1082, 1085, 1089.50, 1093.75, 1098.75, 1104, 1110 fills gap-1111.75, 1118.25
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
24 May, 2009
Monday kicked the week off with a modest loss across the broader markets. The volume was about half of Friday's on the NYSE and Nasdaq, futures came in about half as well. The COMPX and NDX traded in a very narrow range and left both indexes right into the 200dma. The SPX is still 30 points off under the 200dma and the Dow is 199 points under. The TRIN closed at 1.86 bearish and the VIX at 38.32.
The market still sits over the May 6th lows and with the Nasdaq indexes performing better than the SPX and Dow left the day in a tug of war. The RSI sits at 33-34, getting close to dropping 30 and becoming oversold. CCI and stochastics are still dropping but the action today started to narrow the bearish opening on them. Financials took the brunt of the days losses and led the SPX to the biggest loss on the broader markets. The days weak close leaves the market with the bears door open. With the market unable to take out Friday's high and the accelerated drop the bears are still holding the cards.
The ES and TF did test the daily pivots, the NQ did test the weekly and no daily. The market can see only the NQ test the weekly and not get the ES/TF to that same level. It doesn't happen often that the markets are so split that we see that, but the NQ was the stronger index today and had the lift while the other two just had no spring to that 1094.50/ 660.40 levels. The 30 and 60 minute futures charts still have a possible inverted head and shoulders, but to see that hold means last weeks low cannot break. The neckline is at Thursday's high and that would lead into the gap overhead. A drop of the lows from the 21st is likely to open the door to a bigger fall and let the market become very oversold before we see a bounce. A weak opening watch for exhaustion to bounce us back into the gap, but not necessarily fill. We've seen some nice reversals off weak openings, but that isn't required with the new sell the bounce we are seeing come into the market.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Tuesday 9:00 S&P/CS Composite 20 HPI, 10:00 Consumer Confidence, 10:00 HPI, 10:00 Richmond Manufacturing Index, 11:15 FOMC Member Bullard Speaks, 8:30 pm Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks. Wednesday 8:30 Core Durable Goods Orders, 8:30 Durable Goods Orders, 10:00 New Home Sales, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 8:30 Prelim GDP, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Prelim GDP Price Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Core PCE Price Index, 8:30 Personal Income, 8:30 Personal Spending, 9:45 Chicago PMI, 9:55 Revised Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 UofM Inflation Expectations.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Tuesday pre market AZO, FLO, MDT, and after the bell DY, TIVO. Wednesday pre market AEO, FRED, TOL, ZLC and after the bell DBRN, HOKU, NTAP, TTWO, PAY. Thursday pre market BIG, COST, HNZ, SNSS, TIF and after the bell ESL, JCG, OVTI, SEAC. Friday pre market FRO and after the bell NCTY.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Tuesday's pivot 1076.50, weekly pivot 1094.50. Intraday support: 1066.75-1065.50, 1062, 1059.25, 1051.25. Resistance: 1077, 1081.50, 1084.50, 1088.50, 1092.75-1093.75, 1097.50, 1104, 1110 fills gap-1111.75, 1118.25
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
19 May, 2009
Wednesday closed the day in the red across the broader markets. Volume once again came in for a distribution day. That is two consecutive distribution day's and four in the last eight trading days. The TRIN closed very low at .53 and the VIX at 35.32 mid range. That TRIN is very low for the losses the market had and given the mid level close tells us the selling had some buying mixed in there. Gold closed down $20.60 to $1194 and oil up 46 cents to $69.87 a barrel.
Into Thursday with the neutral close the market had with the spinning tops giving the market a rest day. The indexes closed and tested the gap support that was left open from the 7th. The SPX also fell into the 200dma and held that support. Retesting that drop on the 6th and 7th and holding that support is good for the market. Now it could also be a digestive pause, but the support held on the first test and pulled off the lows nicely. With the low TRIN I am not overly bearish with this drop and a little suspect of what we'll see. With the SPX getting to the 200dma before the Nasdaq or Dow, the market could very well find some buyers.
The Senate did not get a vote to move forward with the FINREG, which I think is a good sign for financials. We'll see if they find some relief early Thursday. HPQ held up well despite the rest of the big cap tech stocks closing red. That too can lead to some positive catch up movement. Semiconductors did close green on the day which is also optimistic. Now don't think I'm buying with two hands, I'm just not shorting quickly into Thursday. The market is holding ground and it was a digestive day after a reversal day Monday, trend day Tuesday, we deserved that today with some zigzag action.
Early data Thursday will likely create some nice movement and a bracket of Wednesday's range will let the market look for continuation into the second half of the week. The ES needs to hold over 1100.25 and the NQ over 1848.50 to hold the support. The SPX at 200dma 1102.16 is also a line in the sand for the market. A drop there would likely accelerate the market to test the lows from the May 6th drop.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:00 CB Leading Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, Friday 7:00pm FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Thursday pre market PLCE, CSC, DLTR, GME, ROST, SPLS, TGT, TTC, WSM, and after the bell BRCD, DELL, GPS, INTU, MRVL, SHLD, SKIL, WTSLA. Friday pre market ANN, HIBB and nothing after the bell.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Thursday's pivot 1110.50, weekly pivot 1143.75. Intraday support: 106.25, 1103, 1100.25 61.8%-1098.75, 1090, 1081 78.6%. Resistance: 1117.50, 1123.25, 1126.75, 1135-1137, 1144, 1147.50-1148.50, 1150.50
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
17 May, 2009
Monday started the day very weak and until 12:00 it looked like the day would be blood red. At noon the market started to crawl off the lows and finished the day green across the broader markets. The volume fell off from Friday's and left the market a little lackluster even on the reversal. The TRIN closed neutral at .94 and the VIX with a big shooting star on the day closed at 30.84. Oil fell $1.53 to $70.08 a barrel and gold down 50 cents to $1227.30 an ounce.
With Fridays close and such extremes on the TRIN and VIX we looked for the early bounce, which just did not come in. It was the noon reversal that brought the market some buyers, that is unusual to see a 3 TRIN close and no bounce, but the overnight session took some the wind out of that sail and just never gave us that pop. Very disappointing because it is usually an easy trade and gives a lot of opportunity for positioning on the day. Instead of being easy the bus was hard to find at times and very choppy along the way. The daily candle on the broader markets is a nice hammer or doji depending on which you look at. That is possibly support and reversal candles in place for this market. I would feel better about them had the market brought in volume for those strong candles, but now we look for confirmation with a higher closing candle to follow.
The strong close didn't have the volume or power I would like to see for follow through into Tuesday morning. However, good news out of the economic data could help to see a stronger opening. The 50dma's are still over head and confirmation of Monday's support candle is needed with follow through into Tuesday. Futures did test the daily pivot and did not test the weekly. Which leaves those still overhead with the ES at 1143.75, NQ 1921.25 and TF 690.80.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Tuesday 8:30 Building Permits, 8:30 PPI, 8:30 Core PPI, 8:30 Housing Starts, 12:20 FOMC Member Pianalto Speaks. Wednesday 8:30 CPI, 8:30 Core CPI, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 12:00 ECB President Trichet Speaks, 2:00 FOMC Meeting Minutes. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:00 CB Leading Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, Friday 7:00pm FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Tuesday pre market ANF, DKS, HD, KIRK, SKS, TJX, WMT and after the bell ADI, DY, HPQ. Wednesday pre market BJ, DE, and after the bell AMAT, ADSK, HOTT, KONG, NTES, PETM, SNPS. Thursday pre market PLCE, CSC, DLTR, GME, ROST, SPLS, TGT, TTC, WSM, and after the bell BRCD, DELL, GPS, INTU, MRVL, SHLD, SKIL, WTSLA. Friday pre market ANN, HIBB and nothing after the bell.
COMPX (Nasdaq Composite) closed +7.38 at 2354.23. Support: 2339.35, 2310.02, 2280.69, 2265.64 fills gap. Resistance: 2384.63, 2420.98 50dma, 2432.87, 2460.48, 2535.28
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
13 May, 2009
Thursday closed the day red across the broader markets on split volume. The NYSE came in lighter than Wednesday and the Nasdaq was slightly heavier than Wednesday's participation. The ES and TF were lighter and the NQ was heavier. The TRIN closed at 1.90 on the days highs and the VIX closed at 26.68 on the days highs. Gold fell $10.10 to $1233 an ounce and oil fell $1.25 to $74.40 a barrel.
After breaking the 50dma yesterday we went into Thursday looking for confirmation, however that didn't come with this drop. The broader markets dropped below the 50dma and leaves the market under resistance. The day also engulfed yesterdays lift, another down day would confirm a reversal pattern and leave a higher low on the markets. That would leave the market looking for lower ground. The 50dma does leave a very good line in the sand for the upside, a break there would open the bulls door back up.
Futures watch 1930.50 for the NQ, ES 1150 and the TF 693.60 for support on any weakness into Friday. Friday is the biggest economic day of the week and some of the data can be market moving. That is likely to be where our volatility comes from into the final day of the week. With Thursday's action spending most of the day neutral and the late day drop accelerating, I will look for early weakness to find support and then a range to finish the day in. I thought the TRIN might get us over 2 for an early bounce but not quite there but that doesn't mean we won't see some nice retracement once we hit support under us.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover) Friday 8:30 Core Retail Sales, 8:30 Retail Sales, 9:15 Capacity Utilization Rate, 9:15 Industrial Production, 9:55 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, 10:00 Business Inventories.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Friday pre market JCP and nothing
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Friday's pivot 1160.75, weekly pivot 1121.75. Intraday support: 1154.75-1153.75, 1151.50 fills gap-1150, 1144.75-1144.25, 1136.50, 1127.50. Resistance: 1160.75, 1165, 1169.50, 1172.50-1173, 1182-1183.25-1185.50, 1188.25, 1193.50, 1198.50, 1200
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
10 May, 2009
Friday finished the day with an inside down day helping to digest Thursday's drop. The Nas Composite, Nas 100, S&P 500 and Dow held just over the 200dma after piercing that support on Thursday. Volume was lighter than Thursday's but still enough to see participation in the market and more than we had in the first half of the week. The TRIN closed at 2.37 bearish and the VIX 40.95, which was not an inside day. Gold closed up $15.70 to $1213 and oil down $2.00 to $75.11 a barrel.
Daily charts on the broader markets have the RSI at 28-29, stochastics turning up and the CCI coming off -200+. With Friday closing lower that leaves stochastics and the CCI with divergence and the RSI oversold. On the weekly charts this drop confirmed the prior weeks bearish engulfing candle. The drop also left the market back to the February 28th range. The slow crawl higher was erased in a few trading sessions. On the weekly charts the CCI is crossing the 0 line into negative territory for the first time since the first week of February. The RSI has fallen off the 76 level two weeks ago to 48. Stochastics came off the overbought conditions and crossed down along with the other indicators after the last two weeks of selling.
Now we know where we sit and can look forward to next week. Economic data is lighter this week and we are seeing more second tier stocks report earnings throughout the week. Friday's range although an inside bar was still very wide. That makes bracketing the inside bar difficult because we are well beyond our average daily range with the move on Thursday and Friday. Volume was also skewed with this big moves, which makes Monday harder to read. Greece is still hanging out there too and will keep us a little wary until there is some resolution with their debt. Outside of any big news event I expect to see upside retracement on Monday.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover) Monday nothing due out. Tuesday 10:00 IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, 10:00 Wholesale Inventories. Wednesday 8:30 Trade Balance, 10:15 FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 1:15 FOMC Member Bullard Speaks, 2:00 Federal Budget Balance. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Import Prices, 9:00 FOMC Member Kohn Speaks, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, 12:30 Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks. Friday 8:30 Core Retail Sales, 8:30 Retail Sales, 9:15 Capacity Utilization Rate, 9:15 Industrial Production, 9:55 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, 10:00 Business Inventories.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Monday pre market BRK.B, DF, NGS, PETS, TSN, TSN, USM and after the bell DENN, DOLE, IPAR, LM, PAAS, PCLN, TWTC, WINN. Tuesday pre market ABK, BPZ, NICE, and after the bell ERTS, SPWRA, TIE, DIS. Wednesday pre market M, XIDE, and after the bell CSCO, DRYS, WFMI. Thursday pre market CAE, KSS, SNE, URBN, WEN and after the bell ADPT, BBOX, CA, DDS, JWN, NVDA,VSAT. Friday pre market JCP and nothing
SPX (S&P 500) closed -17.27 at 1110.88. Support: 1095.74 200dma, 1082.01-1081.65, 1065.79. Resistance: 1142.80, 1160.97-1170.36, 1186.84
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
6 May, 2009
Thursday the market sold off all morning and the after session brought in a huge move with the markets literally jumping off a cliff and rebounding to recoup some of the losses. At 2:35 the market started on a fall that was one like falling off a cliff, the market did recoup those losses by the close on futures, but it was one wicked drop. We still closed very red and the ride down was one that triggered stops on any long folks were holding and definitely struck a nerve around the world. The cause is said to be a fat finger erroneous trade, but there is no fat or skinny finger pointing at exactly who or what at this point. The after hours did bring news out of the NYSE and Nasdaq about busting trades. Any trade on the NYSE and Nasdaq at 2:40-3:00 that traded more than 60% off will be canceled. Volume left a distribution day across the broader markets. The TRIN closed at 1.43 and the VIX at 32.80 the highest close since May 15th, 2009. Gold rallied $18.70 to $1193.70 and oil down $2.86 to $77.11 a barrel.
Into Friday the market is likely to be very jittery and slow to do a lot with conviction. If this was really an error, retracement of the move is likely to come in. This left the market with divergence, oversold conditions and about any extreme you can think of. Even if this last move of the day had not come in, the market was already blood red and heavy enough so that would have closed ugly even without the additional move off whatever really did cause it. I've seen a handful of trading errors in my career and it is always some HUGE order that stirs the pot that causes the problem, but in addition to those type of moves I've also seen fund usually a hedge fund of some sort liquidating and causing huge moves. This is by far the largest single day move though. So we can assume this is another odd event and move on from it.
I would expect some upside early on and for the market to have a hard time finding any momentum. So I'll look for a choppy trading day and for the Job's data that isn't likely to be front and center with this going on. Greece is still hanging over the market and until we see a vote on a bailout, which is suppose to come Friday we won't know where we stand. Keep in mind it could fail like the TARP in the US did the first time around. The market didn't like that as I recall, so that could deliver a rollercoaster. Once we have the upside move the market may sit and even chop lower. Usually these moves retest, that low is along way off so it won't happen in a day is my thought on that. But it is likely to happen over a period of time.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover) Friday 8:30 Non Farm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings, 3:00 Consumer Credit.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Friday pre market AES, CF, HUN, SUG, TTI and nothing after the bell.
SPX (S&P 500) closed -37.75 at 1128.15. Support: 1111.46, 1094.96 200dma, 1082.01. Resistance: 1142.80, 1160.97-1170.36, 1186.84
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
5 May, 2009
Wednesday closed the day red across the broader indexes. Volume came in mixed with the NYSE slightly heavier than yesterday and the Nasdaq was slightly lighter. Futures came in lighter too. The VIX closed at 24.91 after rejecting 26.22 78.6%. The TRIN stayed in a very narrow range to close at .96 neutral on the day. Gold closed up $5.80 to $1175 and oil fell $2.77 to $79.97 a barrel.
The Nasdaq Composite at 2402.29 closed just 5 points under the 50dma. The Nasdaq 100 closed at 1958.26 about 2 points over the 50dma. The S&P 500 closed at 1165.87 about 2.5 points under the 50dma. The Dow closed about 34 points over the 50dma. All indexes pierced the lower Bollinger band on daily charts and all have the CCI over -200, RSI 41- 44, MACD and stochastics are pointed down and still have some room to move. That CCI is oversold, the RSI is close and the piercing of the lower Bollinger along with the 50dma and 38.2% supports so close. The market is sitting very near key support at those 38.2% levels -- COMPX 2369.07, NDX 1927.05, SPX 1152.84 and Dow 10714.50.
Tuesday the market had a nice VIX/TRIN bounce early on to fill the gaps off the weak opening. Now the VIX has a big spinning top off 78.6% resistance, that along with the spinning tops we have on the broader markets leaves the market with indecision and nearby support. Unless the VIX can clear 26.22 a pullback should come in that would push the market higher. Greece is still headline news and oil sinking kept the bulls from taking hold of the market today. However, the expansion on Tuesday left us to look for a narrow range on Wednesday and that was delivered to us. Thursday and Friday the market has economic data to push it around and we'll continue to watch the Greece news unfold as the EU comes to a vote on aid.
Futures did not test the daily pivot, Tuesday didn't test either. That is unusual to not see the daily pivot for two days. Which leaves Thursday to be a key area and a magnet most likely. We will probably see a lot of rotation off the daily pivots ES 1164, NQ 1954.25 and TF 699.80. Es back over 1178.25, NQ 1981.5 and TF 712.60 would likely ignite the bulls, but rejection there will give us another leg down.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover) Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Prelim NonFarm Productivity, 8:30 Prelim Unit Labor Costs, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Non Farm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings, 3:00 Consumer Credit.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Thursday pre market ATPG, FNM, FTO, MGM, OMG, OHI, QLTI, SLE, SKYW, and after the bell ADPT, AIG, BEBE, NILE, CEC, HANS, KFT, MRX, NVDA, TS, WTW. Friday pre market AES, CF, HUN, SUG, TTI and nothing after the bell.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
2 May, 2009
Friday closed the day down, the week marked the biggest loss since the week of January 31. Nervousness over the global financial pressures sparked some profit taking. Volume was split again today with the NYSE higher and the Nasdaq lower on the day. Thursday the NYSE was lighter and Nas higher. We are just seeing some rotation and nothing real consistent in this drop. However, the semiconductors (SOX) lost 4.54% on the day putting the weight on the Nasdaq. The TRIN closed at 2.20 and the VIX at 22.05, 20% off the 10dma. Gold closed up $12.20 to $1181 and oil up 98 cents to $86.15 a barrel.
The weeks drop engulfed last week leaving a possible bearish engulfing pattern. CCI, RSI and Stochastics all closed down on the broader indexes. The drop also brought the weekly charts off the upper Bollinger band that we've been skating up for weeks. This was the biggest VIX move the market has seen since the week of January 31st. The Nas Composite, Nas 100, S&P 500 and Dow have all been trading on the years lows alternating days in a channel on the high but with no follow through on pullbacks. Friday marked the first close under the 10dma and 20dema since February on the indexes.
Nas Composite watch 2441.65-2416.19 support, Nas 100 1988.07-1968.68, SPX 1178.44-1167.20, and the Dow at 10932.70. With a drop like we saw on Friday the mid point on the day is now key resistance. Monday an early bounce is likely to come in with the TRIN over 2 and the VIX so extreme. That mid point is the key, if the market can't retrace beyond that point we'll look for continuation to the downside. The supports outlined above would provide a ledge for another move lower. If the Goldman probe continues and we keep seeing downgrades like Spain, Portugal, and Greece this week. This market may continue to show some nervousness and give us some correction. The week ahead will give us some insights into the Job's numbers. The market needs to see improvement and will look to Wednesday to start seeing that data released.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover) Monday 8:30 Core PCE Price Index, 8:30 Personal Spending, 8:30 Personal Income, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI, 10:00 Construction Spending, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing Prices, Total Vehicle Sales all day. Tuesday 10:00 Pending Home Sales, 10:00 Factory Orders. Wednesday 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts, 8:15 ADP Non Farm Employment Change, 10:00 ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Prelim NonFarm Productivity, 8:30 Prelim Unit Labor Costs, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Non Farm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings, 3:00 Consumer Credit.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Monday pre market DNDN, GAS, and after the bell APC, EOG, PFG, UTI, VOLC. Tuesday pre market ADM, BZH, BYD, COCO, CVS, DPZ, DUK, EE, HNT, MRO, MMC, MA, MRK, NYX, OSG, PFE, PNCL, SU, THC, TEVA, and after the bell ATML, CEPH, DLLR, ERTS, ESLR, IPI, JCOM, ONXX, TIE, TRLG, XL. Wednesday pre market AGU, DVN, GRMN, ICE, PHM, Q, TWX, UPL, WCG, XTO and after the bell BMC, CECO, ERES, GDP, JDSU, LVS, MCHP, MUR, NVEC, ONNN, PACR, PRU, QSFT, SMSI, RIG. Thursday pre market ATPG, FNM, FTO, MGM, OMG, OHI, QLTI, SLE, SKYW, and after the bell ADPT, AIG, BEBE, NILE, CEC, HANS, KFT, MRX, NVDA, TS, WTW. Friday pre market AES, CF, HUN, SUG, TTI and nothing after the bell.
COMPX (Nasdaq Composite) closed -50.73 at 2461.19. Support: 2441.65, 2416.19, 2394.59 50dma, 2369.07 38.2%. Resistance: 2518.29, 2535.28, 2549.94 6/1/8 swing high, 2617.29.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
30 Apr, 2009
Thursday closed the day on the highs and right back to the area we fell from on the Greece/Portugal news on Tuesday. The advance left the market with a lighter volume lift on the NYSE and heavier volume on the Nasdaq. The TRIN was high until the final hour and it fell off to close at .79. The VIX closed at 18.44 just off the 17.94 lows from Tuesday. Gold closed the day at $1166 down $5.80 and oil closed up $1.95 to $85.17 a barrel.
The action was a little choppy off the opening today, the market was at a tug of war with sellers and buyers. That was evident by the high TRIN throughout the first half of the day. After the bell CSTR, PWER, WYNN all traded up nicely off earnings, MFE, QLGC, MXIM, MET all traded lower off earnings. The big shocker for the market after the bell came with Goldman Sachs (GS), yep more BS with GS (sorry that was too easy). The fed's are now involved and looking into criminal wrong doing, not just the civil case that the market was already digesting. GS closed at $160.18 and barely a change after the initial drop and then rebound. Futures didn't hold as steady and showing some concern. We may see more as Europe opens with the Greece, Portugal and Spain problems leaving the market with wobbly legs and now this.
Going into a Friday with uncertainty is the last thing the market wants. I will look for some pressure early on the market. If there isn't any we look for the bulls to say…SEE none of it matters. I won't hold my breath awaiting that comment, but you all know what I am saying. We have shrugged off some really surprising stuff lately, so this may or may not be another blip on the screen. We are likely to find out early in the day just how much the market can shrug off. I think we see selling pressure and then find some range to finish the day in. I don't have a lot technically to base that off, the market is trending up and strong. Indicators are still headed up and if we clear Tuesdays highs that erases the week's drop and the ship sails north. So my thought it we see the pressure off the uncertainty.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover) Friday 8:30 GDP, 8:30 Advanced GDP Price Index, 8:30 Employment Cost Index, 9:45 Chicago PMI, 9:55 Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Revised UoM Inflation Expectations.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Friday pre market AGN, CVX, DHI, LPNT, NDAQ, VFC and nothing after the bell.
NQ (Nas 100 e-mini) Friday's pivot 2033.50, weekly pivot 2030.50. Support: 2032.25, 2028.75, 2022.75, 2016.50, 2010, 2006.75, 2001. Resistance: 2042.75, 2046.50, 2053, 2057.25, 2060.50
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
27 Apr, 2009
Tuesday brought in the turn around like we haven't seen since February 4th. The market was hit in the head with the Greek Tragedy, mid morning Sovereign debt was downgraded on Portugal and Greece. The market used the news as a catalyst to pullback. The fall pushed the VIX to 22.81, which was the largest percentage gain in a single day in over 18 months. Volume came in fast and furious, it is a game of musical chairs when the market starts to rollover. Gold picked up some safe haven action and closed up $8.20 to $1162.20 and oil closed down $1.76 to $82.44 a barrel. The Goldman Sachs hearings were ongoing throughout the day and just ended about an hour ago into the late evening. I think they will send Greece some money for a bailout with the distraction that provided the market with…that is a joke. The almost 11 hours of testimony was crazy, but I don't think the market learned anything to scare it into a drop. It was the downgrade off Greece that did it for the market and the 8 weeks of UP action.
Futures fell through support level after support level, even closed below S3 and that is a very rare occasion. The weekly pivots were tested and we fell through those. We finally got the pullback we need to see. Now as the ES sits on 1179.5 support the next key level is 1171 and onto 1167.75. The NQ watch the 1997.75 and then onto 1983.50. The TF has 716.90 and onto 709.30 levels to watch for below us. Early on I would expect some relief bounce to come in. For the ES look for 1189.5-1192.50, the NQ 2017.50-2021 and the TF 727.10-728.60 as we bounce early on.
The TRIN closed at 3.38 and the VIX is about 32% off the 10dma. That gives us every reason to look for a bounce early on. Now that doesn't mean we won't see the selling resume once we bounce or a weak opening and the market bounce and sit. It is a Fed day and the afternoon could be volatile. However, when we have a big range expansion following a NR7 day some digestion is usually needed. An opening move to retrace some of the losses and then sit in range would not be that surprising. Hearing from the Fed maybe another catalyst for the market though, so we will wait for that statement to see if any changes were made.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover) Wednesday 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 2:15 FOMC Statement, 2:15 Federal Funds Rate. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 GDP, 8:30 Advanced GDP Price Index, 8:30 Employment Cost Index, 9:45 Chicago PMI, 9:55 Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Revised UoM Inflation Expectations.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Wednesday pre markets APU, BCRX, GLW, DOW, GD, HES, IACI, JBLU, MSO, MHS, PFCB, SAP, SO, S, WLP, and after the bell BIDU, CRA, FSLR, GG, LSI, OII, RYL, SUNH, TSRA, VAR, V, XLNX. Thursday pre market AEP, BJS, BG, CAH, CELG, CME, COP, XOM, HP, HURN, IMAX, IP, K, MOT, MYL, GAS, NS, OMX, ZEUS, PTEN, POT, PG, HOT, TSM, WM, and after the bell AEM, HIG, KLAC, MXIM, MET, PDLI, QLGC, SUN, TSO. Friday pre market AGN, CVX, DHI, LPNT, NDAQ, VFC and nothing after the bell.
NDX (Nasdaq 100) closed -42.84 at 2006.25. Support: 2003.80, 1988.37, 1927.05 38.2%. Resistance: 2023.33, 2037.11, 2046.92, 2072.34, 2100, 2196.17, 2239.23 Oct highs.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
25 Apr, 2009
Friday closed the day/week on the highs. The week has some weak starts on the day and each day managed to shake it off and lift. The range wasn't huge, but still left the market sitting at new highs on the week for the year across the broader markets. Friday's volume came in lower than Thursday's and left the day a little lackluster. The TRIN closed at 1.23 on Friday and had a weeks average of 1.16. Gold closed the day up $10.40 to $1153.30 and oil up $1.42 to $85.12 a barrel.
On the weekly charts the Nas Composite closed at 2530.15 just over 2519.97 78.6% resistance. Another week over that key fib resistance would open the door to the 2861.51 October 2007 highs. The Nas 100 spent another week over 1982.68 78.6% confirming the prior weeks break. 2205.18 is the October 2007 on the Nas 100 for the next big level, but before we get to that level we have the May/June 2008 highs here at 2055.82. The market spent 5 weeks at that level and ended up falling. The RSI on the Nas Composite and Nas 100 closed the week at 76, the CCI is flat at 117ish, MACD is pointed up and stochastics are flat at 96. Both indexes are into the upper BB on the weekly and over extended.
The weekly on the SPX has an RSI at 72, stochastics at 94, MACD open to the upside, CCI flat at 114 with divergence on the week and into the upper Bollinger band. The SPX is into 1226.74 61.8% fib off the October 2007 highs to the March 2009 lows. While the Nasdaq indexes are well ahead of the SPX this is still a key level. The Dow is also lagging back and sits at 11246 61.8%. The Dow had divergence on the CCI for the week, RSI is at 72 and stochastics are at 95. These two indexes are also extended on the weekly chart with the Nasdaq.
Being extended isn't necessarily a sign of the top, it is just a sign the market is rising with some struggle. The intraday pullbacks kept working the shorter term intraday overbought conditions off. Which helps the market to keep lifting in small steps and will keep volatility low which is just off the 15.23 lows from 4/12/10. With a Fed meeting this week and a lot of other economic data due we should see similar action to what we had last week. Earnings will continue to roll out and be watched closely for forward guidance.
Futures closed Friday well over the upcoming weeks weekly pivots. A flat opening would be ideal on Monday but with the Greece news still hanging out there Sunday's globex session could change our view into Monday. As we sit now I will look for a pullback Monday and for the session to quiet down into Wednesday's Fed announcement. A test of the weekly pivots Monday would allow for a nice pullback and setup for another leg up. It is the final week for April and that should help volume to come in and stay steady throughout the week. Watch the 61.8% levels close on the SPX and Dow and the NDX needs to stay over 78.6% for this advance to continue.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover) Monday nothing due out, Tuesday 9:00 S&P/CS Composite 20 HPI, 10:00 Consumer Confidence, 10:00 Richmond Manufacturing Index. Wednesday 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 2:15 FOMC Statement, 2:15 Federal Funds Rate. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 GDP, 8:30 Advanced GDP Price Index, 8:30 Employment Cost Index, 9:45 Chicago PMI, 9:55 Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Revised UoM Inflation Expectations.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Monday pre market BLK, CAT, HUM, SOHU, TZOO, and after the bell ALB, AMP, BSX, ELX, RSH, TXN, VECO, WMS. Tuesday pre market MMM, BP, CIT, CMI, DD, F, LXK, MHP, NEM, ODP, OXPS, TLAB, TYC, X, UAUA, UA, UPS, LCC, VLO, and after the bell BRCM, DWA, NSC, PNRA, ULTI. Wednesday pre markets APU, BCRX, GLW, DOW, GD, HES, IACI, JBLU, MSO, MHS, PFCB, SAP, SO, S, WLP, and after the bell BIDU, CRA, FSLR, GG, LSI, OII, RYL, SUNH, TSRA, VAR, V, XLNX. Thursday pre market AEP, BJS, BG, CAH, CELG, CME, COP, XOM, HP, HURN, IMAX, IP, K, MOT, MYL, GAS, NS, OMX, ZEUS, PTEN, POT, PG, HOT, TSM, WM, and after the bell AEM, HIG, KLAC, MXIM, MET, PDLI, QLGC, SUN, TSO. Friday pre market AGN, CVX, DHI, LPNT, NDAQ, VFC and nothing after the bell.
SPX (S&P 500) closed +8.61 at 1217.28. Support: 1204.44, 1190.87, 1154.79 50dma- 1151.28. Resistance: 1228.74 61.8%, 1265.12, 1309.67.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
21 Apr, 2009
Wednesday another narrow range day that spent most of the day chopping around. The Nas Composite, Nas 100, and the Dow closed slightly green on the day on heavier volume than Tuesday delivered. The S&P 500 closed modestly red on heavier volume than Tuesday delivered. The TRIN closed bearish at 1.74 and the VIX at 16.32 which is about mid range on the day. Gold closed up $4.80 to $1144 and oil down 17 cents to $83.68 a barrel.
The market continues to sit under the years highs, although Apple did help to prop the market up today. Mixed results after the bell with SNDK, SBUX, NFLX up nicely and EBAY, QCOM, ISIL all selling off. Futures reacted mildly to the downside off the releases after the bell, unlike the huge reaction on AAPL yesterday. Market breadth did not support the upside move today with the TRIN at 1.74, that is certainly showing there was some profit taking going on. The U/D and A/D lines were neutral throughout the day.
Into Thursday the market has the first look at economic data this week. Earnings continue to rollout and the range is stuck digesting near the years highs. The Semi's were weak on the day and that should be closely watched into Thursday. The Nasdaq will struggle to get far without that participation. The ES continues to wrestle with 1204 and until that clears we won't be looking for the bulls. Through 1204 and onto 1211 and 1214.75 would be where the bulls head. Under 1185.5 and we look for 1179.5 and onto 1171 for support on the ES. The NQ under 2005.75 look for 1997 and 1985.75 is likely.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover) Thursday 8:30 PPI, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Core PPI, 10:00 Existing Home Sales, 10:00 HPI, 10:30 Natural Gas. Friday 8:30 Core Durable Goods Orders, 8:30 Durable Goods Orders, 10:00 New Home Sales. Saturday IMF meetings (Greece concerns likely to be a focus).
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Thursday pre market ALK, ABC, BG, CAL, CY, FITB, F, ESI, LLL, MAR, NOK, NUE, BTU, PENN, PEP, PNC, PFS, RS, LUV, SU, TASR, TRA, UNP, VZ, WSO, ZMH and after the bell AMZN, AXP, COF, CAKE, DECK, IGT, LSCC, MSCC, OSIP, PMCS, RMBS, STMP, STM. Friday pre market CMS, HON, IR, SLB, TRV, XRX and nothing after the bell.
SOX (semiconductor) closed -4.29 at 391.42. Support: 388.98, 385.03, 381.07. Resistance: 394.10, 395.88, 397.47, 398.58
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
19 Apr, 2009
Monday started the week with a modest win on the NDX, SPX and Dow, leaving the Nas Composite slightly red. The market reversed off the lows after three hours of selling to then close on the highs. Very nice turn, but with lighter participation than we saw on Friday. Friday was extremely heavy today was not bad, but lighter than Friday. The VIX closed at 17.34 and the TRIN at .59 very bullish on the day. The TRIN's flat reading throughout the day did show that a lot of shares were moving up on heavy volume while the down was on lighter to keep that TRIN on lighter volume. Also lack of selling and possibly some dip buying on some sector rotation. Gold closed the day down 90 cents to $1136 and oil down $1.79 to $81.45 a barrel.
IBM reported after the bell, the stock closed at $132.23 and traded down to $129.45 in the after- hours session. Tuesday morning is likely to focus on the Goldman Sachs (GS) report and the conference call which is likely to focus on the SEC charges. Monday afternoon we heard that the SEC has a split vote within their own agency on bringing charges against GS with a 4-3 vote. If they don't have a stronger consensus than that, there maybe little for GS to worry about putting his to rest quickly. Convincing experts shouldn't be that difficult within your own house if the evidence is that strong is my view of this. I'm not saying GS did nothing, but it sure is on thin ice for now with me. Which is also why the stock rebounded $8.00 off the day's lows. Not bad for a days rise, but still has losses off Fridays hit. With GS on Tuesday morning will be KO and JNJ both Dow components reporting.
The early fall on the market continued the weak move from Friday. However, the turn once the gap filled from the 13th and the GS news started to take hold. The weakness in tech outweighed the financial weakness, but both key sectors found support and turned up. Now the support the market came off has to hold or the bears get to see this move off the highs completed. We've seen a very resilient market and a market that only wants to move one direction. Last week started wiggling some both ways and now two days of movement. We won't send for the party hats yet, but maybe we get to see nice ranges and movement throughout this week. Tuesday I think we get some retracement on that late day lift and then the bulls have to come in or we'll see the lower levels.
The NQ, ES and TF opened weak and by days end traded into the green, even getting to the weekly pivots just before the close. With that checked off the list for the week we now have plenty to look forward too. The level I outlined last night for the ES at 1179.50 will still be the key level. We stayed just one tick off the support, a break there would let the ES trade down to 1171. The NQ dropped 1995.75 and onto 1985.75, now we have 1989.25 as the level to hold or we see 1973 and onto 1959.25. The TF 699.7 and onto 697.60 support should be watched. Now with the late day strong move back up the resistance overhead to watch will be 714.80 and onto 718.90 over that the bulls get to lift off. The ES 1204 and onto 1210.50 are the key levels. The NQ 2026.50 will be the line in the sand and onto 2037.75 resistance should be watched for.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover) Tuesday nothing due out. Wednesday 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 8:30 PPI, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Core PPI, 10:00 Existing Home Sales, 10:00 HPI, 10:30 Natural Gas. Friday 8:30 Core Durable Goods Orders, 8:30 Durable Goods Orders, 10:00 New Home Sales. Saturday IMF meetings (Greece concerns likely to be a focus).
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Tuesday pre market AKS, BK, BIIB, BJS, COH, KO, GS, HOG, JNJ, PCAR, STT, AMTD, UNH, USB, and after the bell AAPL, GILD, SYK, VMW, YHOO. Wednesday pre market MO, T, ATMI, BA, GENZ, KEY, MCD, MS, STJ, TIN, UTX, WFC and after the bell AFFX, AMGN, CMG, EBAY, FNF, ISIL, MEE, NFLX, NTGR, NE, NVLS, PLCM, QCOM, SNDK, SBUX, TER. Thursday pre market ALK, ABC, BG, CAL, CY, FITB, F, ESI, LLL, MAR, NOK, NUE, BTU, PENN, PEP, PNC, PFS, RS, LUV, SU, TASR, TRA, UNP, VZ, WSO, ZMH and after the bell AMZN, AXP, COF, CAKE, DECK, IGT, LSCC, MSCC, OSIP, PMCS, RMBS, STMP, STM. Friday pre market CMS, HON, IR, SLB, TRV, XRX and nothing after the bell.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Tuesday's pivot 1190.75, weekly pivot 1194.50. Intraday support: 1190, 1186-1185 swing low, 1183.25, 1179.50, 1175, 1171. Resistance: 1198.75, 1201.50, 1204, 1210.50, 1218.75
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
14 Apr, 2009
Wednesday left the day on new highs for the year and with a big advance. The volume came in heavier on the NYSE, Nasdaq and futures for the second consecutive accumulation day. The VIX closed at 15.59 just over the Monday lows (15.23) and the TRIN closed at .70 (very flat on the day). The A/D and U/D lines advanced throughout the day showing the lack of sellers but with an advance that started on a gap up and continued I would have looked for a .50's TRIN not this high. This tells us although there was a great deal of up volume that could also be profit taking up here. Gold closed the day up $5.70 to $1159.10 and oil up $1.79 to $85.84 on the day.
The semi's were up 4.3% on the day and banks trailed the advance but also up a hefty 3.39% for the top two sectors on the day. The SOX has big resistance at 403.52 overhead and banks at 57.25 where they closed. The Nas Composite has 78.6% 2519.97 resistance just overhead, the SPX 1228.74 61.8%, RUT 746.62 78.6% and the Dow 11245.90 nearing. The advance today left the market overbought on the daily charts and intraday. COMPX, SPX and RUT have the RSI over 80, stochastics over 95 and outside the upper BB on the daily charts. The Dow the RSI is 75, into upper BB and 92 stochastics, also overdone but not as much as the other indexes.
I would look for an early pullback into Thursday. With data in the pre market and into 10 the market is likely to be very volatile in the first hour. Wednesday's advance was a wider range than we've seen so we can also look to digest that move. Which means the market pulls back or can move sideways for a digestive narrow range day. After the first hour sets in we'll get a better view of just how narrow the day could be, end of day the market is likely to look to Google (GOOG) earnings that will be delivered after the bell Thursday. Friday morning has BAC and GE big caps reporting in the pre market which should also provide Thursday with volatility.
Futures did not test the daily pivots, because we just didn't dip low enough to see them. They also left a gap open with the gap and advance move that came on the day. 1198.75 ES support and 2010.50 for the NQ would be where we look for any pullback to test. Any lower than that and we'll likely see a deeper dip into Friday. With Intel (INTC) and JPM the market liked the good news they both released good news for the market, however we've seen that in prior quarters sell off over the days to follow. Keep that in mind and don't get caught up buying this high with no pullback.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Empire State Manufacturing Index, 9:00 TIC Long Term Purchases, 9:15 Capacity Utilization Rate, 9:15 Industrial Production, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, 12:15 FOMC Member Bullard Speaks, 1:00 NAHB Housing Market Index, tentative Treasury Currency Report. Friday 8:30 Building Permits, 8:30 Housing Starts, 9:55 Prelim UofM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Prelim UofM Inflation Expectations.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Thursday pre market SCHW, FCS, BTU, PPG, TITN and after the bell AMD, AMLN, BIIB, CBK, GOOG, ISRG, PLCM. Friday pre market BAC, GE, MAT and after the bell IEX.
SOX (semiconductor) closed +16.40 at 397.73. Support: 394.72, 393.64, 392.55, 391.00, 389.04 Resistance: 399.93, 400.21, 403.06
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
13 Apr, 2009
Tuesday closed the day with a modest win across the broader markets. Volume for the NYSE, Nasdaq and futures came in slightly heavier than Monday's to give the market an accumulation day. The TRIN left the bears looking over the bulls shoulder closing at 1.40 bearish on the day and the VIX snapped back within 5 cents of the 10dma to 16.20. The weak start on the market took the first half of the day to work off and get the market back to where it closed Monday, then a slow steady lift set in with the Nasdaq leadership. Gold closed down $14.40 to $1147.80 and oil fell 33 cents to $84.01 a barrel.
Good earnings out of CSX, INTC and LLTC after the bell all sending futures higher in the globex session. That is likely to hold for a gap into Wednesday. INTC is known for a sell the news kind of move, but don't get in a hurry to see that. It can take awhile and the gross margins are up which hasn't been the case every quarter for them to see improvements. Early data and we have JP Morgan into Wednesday's pre market which will also play into the markets tone. So INTC isn't alone on the pedestal for a catalyst into Wednesday.
The daily charts on the COMPX, NDX, SPX all have the RSI over 74, CCI is flat not rising with these tiny lifts everyday and stochastics over 95 on each as well as a piercing of the upper Bollinger band. The move is extended and has some room yet ..the RSI can move over 80, stochastics can move a little more and the CCI has plenty of room and we can crawl through the upper Bollinger or continue to slide up for longer than you can stay short in this advance. So my point is stay neutral and pick your spots still. The Dow has 70 RSI, and only 91 stochastics and no piercing of the upper Bollinger yet. Banks and hardware sectors left a red day and a possible bearish engulfing pattern. Brokers remain under 112.28 78.6% resistance, the SOX doesn't have a lot of anything in this area which leaves it open for the upside.
Into Wednesday unless the data derails the bull train we'll look for a gap up to fade. The initial impulse may carry us a little higher off the opening and we'll bracket the opening range to find an entry for either side. But my initial thought is we finished strong on the day, INTC pumped the bulls up and we'll need to exhaust the upside to start a fade on the morning. The ES tested the weekly pivot and that leaves the NQ and TF not testing it still. We do see that happen with one testing and not the others, but the week isn't over yet. If we do the normal several days of fading the INTC news we will get the NQ there.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Wednesday 8:30 Core Retail Sales, 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 Retail Sales, 8:30 CPI, 9:30 FOMC Member Pianalto Speaks, 10:00 Fed Bernanke Testifies, 10:00 Business Inventories, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 2:00 Beige Book. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Empire State Manufacturing Index, 9:00 TIC Long Term Purchases, 9:15 Capacity Utilization Rate, 9:15 Industrial Production, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, 12:15 FOMC Member Bullard Speaks, 1:00 NAHB Housing Market Index, tentative Treasury Currency Report. Friday 8:30 Building Permits, 8:30 Housing Starts, 9:55 Prelim UofM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Prelim UofM Inflation Expectations.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Wednesday pre market ASML, JPM, PGR and after the bell JBHT, YUM. Thursday pre market SCHW, FCS, BTU, PPG, TITN and after the bell AMD, AMLN, BIIB, CBK, GOOG, ISRG, PLCM. Friday pre market BAC, GE, MAT and after the bell IEX.
BKX (Banks) closed -.62 at 55.35. Support: 54.35, 53.22, 52.42, 51.40. Resistance: 56.41-56.88, 57.93, 59.71
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
11 Apr, 2009
Friday left the day green across the broader markets with light volume. The week closed with a gain, although coming into Friday we were pretty even on the week and the last two hours advance marked the gains on the week. The TRIN closed at .79 bullish on the day and left the week with the lowest average weekly TRIN on the year at .73. The VIX closed at 16.14 about 5% below the 10dma. Gold closed up $9.10 to $1162 and oil down 54 cents to $84.85 a barrel.
The Dow has 11132.26 and onto 11245.90 for key resistance overhead after hitting 11000 on Friday and closing just below that key psychological area on the index. Nasdaq composite has 2519.97 resistance to watch for overhead and 2383.77 and onto 2318.91 support. The Nas 100 closed just over 1982.68 a very key spot off the October 2007 highs to the March 2009 lows. Holding over that level coming into Monday would let the NDX look for 2239.23 resistance overhead. NDX support 1943.97 and onto 1880.91 38.2% areas should be watched for. The SPX has 1228.74 61.8% resistance and 1165.77 onto 1137.30 38.2% supports to watch for. Each of the daily charts are into the upper Bollinger and each RSI is 72-74 on the COMPX, NDX, SPX with only the Dow under 70 at 69.43. Those over 70 readings over 70 are concern for being overbought we but can continue onto 80 with little pause. With each index at new highs on the year the bulls still have hold of the action.
The week ahead will have a lot of data and earnings season gets underway. After the strength in the final hours Friday and leadership from hardware and sox we can look for this lift to continue. The COMPX is so close to 2500, NDX knocks at 2000, SPX 1200 and Dow 11000 the market will want that look at those round key psychological numbers. Now the focus points us into earnings and will it be a sell the news or fuel the fire move to come. A good size gap will likely bring in a lot of volume and could help to see a pullback develop with exhaustion. With no weekly pivot tested last week and the prior three weeks did we can look for those levels on futures early in the week. The market has been very consistent with 3 or 4 weeks hitting the pivot and missing a week throughout 2010. That would pull us in to get that test this week and should be on watch.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Monday 2:00 Federal Budget Balance. Tuesday 8:30 Trade Balance, 8:30 Import Prices, 10:00 IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, 10:45 FOMC Member Tarullo Speaks. Wednesday 8:30 Core Retail Sales, 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 Retail Sales, 8:30 CPI, 9:30 FOMC Member Pianalto Speaks, 10:00 Fed Bernanke Testifies, 10:00 Business Inventories, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 2:00 Beige Book. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Empire State Manufacturing Index, 9:00 TIC Long Term Purchases, 9:15 Capacity Utilization Rate, 9:15 Industrial Production, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, 12:15 FOMC Member Bullard Speaks, 1:00 NAHB Housing Market Index, tentative Treasury Currency Report. Friday 8:30 Building Permits, 8:30 Housing Starts, 9:55 Prelim UofM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Prelim UofM Inflation Expectations.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Monday nothing pre market and after the bell AA. Tuesday pre market FAST, INFY and after the bell CSX, INTC, LLTC, TLB. Wednesday pre market ASML, JPM, PGR and after the bell JBHT, YUM. Thursday pre market SCHW, FCS, BTU, PPG, TITN and after the bell AMD, AMLN, BIIB, CBK, GOOG, ISRG, PLCM. Friday pre market BAC, GE, MAT and after the bell IEX.
NDX (Nasdaq 100) closed +13.70 at 1994.43. Support: 1975.19, 1954.78, 1886.91 38.2% Resistance: 2006.11, 2011.57, 2033.35, 2048.62, 2239.23 Oct highs.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
7 Apr, 2009
Wednesday brought a down day to the broader markets leaving a modest loss on higher volume. Last week Wednesday was a down day and also a distribution like today. Distribution days have been few and far between, because down days are a rarity lately. The TRIN closed at .88 near the highs on the day so that doesn't show a big elephant of pressure sitting on the market. The VIX closed at 16.62 still sucking the wind out of our volatility. Gold rallied $17.00 to close at $1153 and oil down 96 cents to $85.88 a barrel.
The Nas Composite traded a down inside day, while the NDX, SPX and Dow all traded down outside days. This isn't significant in a single day, but a follow through day would put a retracement in play for the broader markets. Today's action did crawl up and did the late day belly flop, no pullback in this market has had follow through since mid February for a few days and then January was a more significant pullback. The buyers won't let go of this easily and the hunt for 2K on the NDX, 1200 on SPX and 11,000 on the Dow dreams won't go away easily.
The ES did not test Tuesday's high and ended the day over 1177 support. A break of 1177 we look for 1165.75 and that puts us within striking distance of 1162.25 weekly pivot. Back over 1185 is likely to ignite the buyers for new highs on the week and move onto 1195.50. The NQ has 1963.25 key support with 1958 below that and then 1950.25 with 1948 weekly pivot. Back over 1981.25 look for 1988.75 to test. The split between the NQ and ES played again today off the opening, it took forever to get everyone on the same page. So be persistent and patient with this market and we will eventually get everyone on the same page off the opening hour.
Brokers, hardware and semi's were the strong sectors and certainly a force on the day. Brokers have 122.28 key resistance nearing, hardware broke the triangle it has been forming since January 20th on Monday. Now key resistance is 309.15 just overhead on the HWI. Sox closed the day with divergence and still struggling at Mondays high. Things are still wobbly up here and we know that but don't trade as a top picker. We'll trade what we see into Thursday and be optimistic that the action will start to move both direction and continue to build on volume. Wednesday's volume on the NYSE and Nasdaq was the best in the last 12 trading days. Futures had the best in the past four days. With early data and the most notable release of the week we should see some nice volatility early on.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 10:00 Wholesale Inventories
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Thursday pre market ISCA, PIR and after the bell SMSC, NCTY. Friday pre market BTH, STZ and nothing after the bell.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
5 Apr, 2009
Monday closed the day higher with very light volume. The volume left a lot to be desired, but should pick up as the week progresses. Monday's after three day weekends can often be a little light and we are still getting April underway. The broader markets left new closing highs on the year, the Dow came within 12 points of the 11, 000. The TRIN closed bullish at .62, the entire day was flat and range bound on the TRIN. The VIX closed at 17.02 on the low of day, still on the 10dma. Gold moved higher to $1133.40 up $7.30 and oil moved up $1.75 to close at $86.62 a barrel.
These light volume advances have become the norm with this lift and a year ago I would have been suspect of it holding up. The last 24 trading days have only seen 4 accumulation days, leaving volume as a missing component more often than not. Certainly not something we would have seen hold up but we are in that melt up mode. Divergence, overbought, light volume and even bad news hasn't knocked the market off the bull road. Leaving us to not put so much on volume to help determine strength of the move…for now! That doesn't mean I believe we can continue to melt up on light volume, but it does mean volume alone will help us to find a top.
The first two hours were impulsive to the upside and put in the range for the day. The remainder of the day chopped sideways and could leave us with a bull flag. The 65 minute charts on NDX, COMPX, SPX, Dow are all the same pattern and have 93 stochastics that are flat and plenty of room on the RSI and CCI to move out of the flag. We are on the upper bollingers, but that is normal with so much chop it comes to us. The daily charts the upper Bollinger is very close on the Dow, Nasdaq indexes and the SPX is there already. RSI is 71-74 on each, we get over 80 overbought conditions are going to be a bigger problem.
Futures did not test the weekly or daily pivots on Monday. The gap and go day didn't let us drop into them. The ES over 1187.25 and into 1195 is still possible if we come out of the bull flag we left on the intraday (60 minute) chart. The NQ 1982.25 would be resistance to watch for and onto 1994. A drop under 1173.25 would push the Es much lower into 1162.25 weekly pivot and 78.6% fib support. The NQ 1984.25 support is key any lower and we look for 1948.75-1948 (weekly pivot) to get a test.
NQ (Nas 100 e-mini) Tuesday's pivot 1969.50, weekly pivot 1948. Support: 1964.25, 1959.75, 1955.25, 1952 fills gap-1951.75, 1948.75 Resistance: 1977.25, 1982.25, 1987.25, 1994, 2000
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Tuesday 2:00 FOMC Meeting Minutes. Wednesday 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 3:00 Consumer Credit. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 10:00 Wholesale Inventories
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Tuesday nothing due out. Wednesday pre market FDO, MON and after the bell BBBY, LWSN, PBY, SCHN, WDFC. Thursday pre market ISCA, PIR and after the bell SMSC, NCTY. Friday pre market BTH, STZ and nothing after the bell.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
4 Apr, 2009
Thursday closed the week out with a gain across the broader markets. Volume was lighter on the NYSE and Nasdaq leaving the market pretty quiet. Wednesday's distribution day didn't get follow through but the bulls didn't get an accumulation day to run the market on either. The TRIN closed very bullish at .47 the only day of last week to close under 1.00. That tells us that the selling pressure was absent and there wasn't any profit taking either. The VIX closed at 17.47 on the 10dma and has the 20dema working down to the 10dma now. Gold closed up $13.20 to $1126.50 and oil up $1.06 to $84.82 a barrel.
Nasdaq 100 and Nasdaq Composite held the swing lows from March 26th while the S&P 500 held over the gap fill from March31st (1169.43) and the Dow fell into 3/31 gap and held to bounce. The Dow came close to the March 25th highs and was unable to break out. The S&P 500 did break over the 1180.69 3/25 highs, but snapped back under quickly and we may see a double top, a break of 1161.48 would confirm that. The Nasdaq 100 and Nasdaq Composite closed the day with divergence and the week did too although it booked a small gain. The week was an inside week on the Nasdaq indexes. The SPX and Dow traded modestly higher on the week and just outside the prior weeks range still in a very narrow range on the week.
Although the bulls are holding well and very resilient to even bad news that we shrugged off mid week they are tiring and holding a small range. That is digestive and keeps the market winding for a move to come. Historically the S&P 500 traded lower after Easter 16 of 20 until 2004 and then the trend changed to 5 of the last 6 to the upside. We usually stumble out of the gate after three day weekends for a slow start. 11,000 will be key resistance on the Dow to clear, SPX 1228.74, Nas Composite 2473.20 and onto 2519.97, Nas 100 1982.68 and the Russell 2000 706.07. A pullback to even the March lows would be very shallow because March just crawled up with tiny ranges leaving a lot of green days but narrow ranges.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Monday 10:00 ISM Non Manufacturing PMI, 10:00 Pending Home Sales. Tuesday 2:00 FOMC Meeting Minutes. Wednesday 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 3:00 Consumer Credit. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 10:00 Wholesale Inventories
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Monday nothing due out. Tuesday nothing due out. Wednesday pre market FDO, MON and after the bell BBBY, LWSN, PBY, SCHN, WDFC. Thursday pre market ISCA, PIR and after the bell SMSC, NCTY. Friday pre market BTH, STZ and nothing after the bell.
SPX (S&P 500) closed +8.67 at 1178.10. Support: 1170.52, 1163.79-1158.99, 1144.98. Resistance: 1179.27, 1195.91, 1228.74.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
31 Mar, 2009
Wednesday closed the day slightly red across the broader indexes. Volume picked up today for a distribution day, although still a narrow range day. The TRIN closed at 1.13 for the third consecutive day over 1.00 for a bearish tone. The VIX closed at 17.59 which was mid range on the day. Gold rallied $8.60 to close at $1114.30 and oil up $1.39 to $83.76 a barrel. After the bell RIMM traded lower on earnings, MU up and BGP up. RIMM could pressure the Nasdaq into Thursday. Also keep in mind we are heading into a three day weekend and Friday will have the Job's data. We could see a nervous Thursday.
Each index sits on the 10dma in the very slow motion tiny range action we are seeing pull off the highs from March 25th. Banks traded lower for the three days and today had a move back up retracing Tuesday's losses. Leaving banks to hold onto the 10ma's with the broader markets, brokers and hardware are in a small channel just under the 10dma and 20dema, the semi's sit in a tiny range on the 20dema. Last night I pointed out a triangle on the 65 minute charts. The NDX, COMPX, Dow all broke the lower trendline in the final hour of trading today leaving only the SPX just on the trendline. Triangles do often have a fake break so be cautious but we'll look for continuation of the move.
The futures did test the daily pivots and the weekly on the ES and TF. Which leaves only the NQ to test the weekly at 1948 well below us. Futures sold off on disappointing ADP data but managed to rebound today and then drop in the final hour. This is one crazy market and staying range bound. We closed within yesterdays range and had a big end of day bounce, due to end of month/quarter is likely to be the logic for that. Look for a retest of the days lows, but we still need the weeks lows and a move into 1156.50 in the ES, NQ to 1940 and TF 670 to be a decent pullback. A move through the highs is likely to continue, so don't try to top pick. That wouldn't be really prudent at this point with these shallow drops and the market holding up this well even on disappointing news. Early data Thursday will help to set the tone and bring in the volatility. It is the first day of a new month/quarter and leading to a 3 day weekend. Unless the market gets underway early on to ignite some panic, I would expect the day to try to hold range and restart on Monday.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Thursday 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI, 10:00 Construction Spending, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing Prices, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, Vehicle Sales all day. Friday US markets are closed for Good Friday (globex trading is open until 9:15est). 8:30 Non Farm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Thursday pre market AZZ, KMX, SCHN, SCHL and after the bell MU, PBY. Friday nothing due out US markets are closed.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
30 Mar, 2009
Tuesday marked a modestly green day across the broader markets. Volume came in just under Mondays on the NYSE and on the Nasdaq outpaced Monday's. Monday was light with that very narrow range and today really wasn't a lot better, but futures were slightly higher. The VIX closed on the 10dma at 17.13 and the TRIN bearish again today at 1.44. That leaves us with two closes over 1.00 and on up days. That does tell us there is some profit taking up here with a TRIN that high and with quarter end and the gains the market has seen that isn't unreasonable. Gold closed down $5.70 to $1104.60 and oil up 20 cents to $82.37 a barrel.
The day traded an up outside day following the digestive tone on Monday. 65 minute index charts are in a tight triangle, futures 60 minute also show a triangle. Very digestive and winding for a move is what a triangle does for the market. The VIX showing low volatility, a low ADX and the RSI flat just over 70 on each index and the flat MACD all support the winding for a move. Until the market can break last weeks range we won't have clear indication of direction. The bulls are resilient and every time the door is open for the bears they don't capitalize on it. Which still leaves us to think the upside can come in and get another leg up.
The ES continues to hug the 1169 area, we get in that area and just get stuck. The daily pivot was 1168.25 and kept us very tight as well. Wednesday the pivot is 1169, I for one will be happy to rotate off that level and not look back. We've been in this range since Friday and seen plenty of chop here. Futures still have not tested the weekly pivots below us. Into Wednesday the economic data picks up. The early ADP data will give the market more information on what to expect for Friday's Job's release when the market is closed.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Wednesday 8:15 ADP Non Farm Employment Change, 9:45 Chicago PMI, 10:00 Factory Orders, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI, 10:00 Construction Spending, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing Prices, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, Vehicle Sales all day. Friday US markets are closed for Good Friday (globex trading is open until 9:15est). 8:30 Non Farm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Wednesday pre market DG, OSTK, RAD, and after the bell BLUD, MOS, RIMM, XRTX. Thursday pre market AZZ, KMX, SCHN, SCHL and after the bell MU, PBY. Friday nothing due out US markets are closed.
NQ (Nas 100 e-mini) Wednesday's pivot 1963.25, weekly pivot 1948. Support: 1959.50, 1955.50-1955, 1951.75, 1949, 1946.25, 1940.5, 1935.5, 1931.25, 1928.25 Resistance: 1966.75-1968.50, 1972-1974.25, 1982
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
28 Mar, 2009
Friday closed the day split with the Nas 100 (NDX), S&P 500 (SPX), Dow all modestly green and the Nas Composite slightly red. The week posted a nice gain and left shooting star candles on the week. Volume came in lighter on futures, the NYSE and Nasdaq Friday leaving this as a hit and miss week for volume. The VIX closed at 17.77 and the TRIN at .69 bullish on the day. Gold fell $8.00 to $1100.90 and oil down 51 cents to $80.02 a barrel.
The weekly charts have the upper Bollinger piercing on each broader index and RSI at 66-69 on each broader market. The Nasdaq 100 has retraced further than the other indexes off the October 2007 highs to the March 2009 sitting just under 1982.68 78.6% resistance. That coupled with the reversal candle left on Thursday and tried to step off that on Friday still leaves me looking for a some pullback in this market. The move off the banks swing high/multi-year high also gives us reason to look for some retracement. Any pressure off banks will put some on the SPX.
A lower close on Monday will confirm the reversal in progress from Thursday. It is a shortened week and a nervous market coming off the highs put in last week. An early pullback this week to close out March and position for April will take some pressure off the market before we kick off earnings. A big concern this week will be the job's report on Friday with the markets closed. There will be a globex trading session so futures will be open, which will take some nervousness out. But with no equities and a very short session there will be plenty of volatility to watch for.
We were watching for 1156.60 to test on the ES and that was the low of the day. Now we have to look for retest into 1169 and any rejection there is likely to lead us down to 1151.75. The NQ 1940.50 support came in and now a bounce up to 1961 is likely. Any rejection there lets us look for that deeper pullback into 1931.25 support.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Monday 8:30 Core PCE Price Index, 8:30 Personal Spending, 8:30 Personal Income, 10:00 Treasury Sec Geithner Speaks. Tuesday 9:00 S&P CS Composite 20 HPI, 10:00 CB Consumer Confidence. Wednesday 8:15 ADP Non Farm Employment Change, 9:45 Chicago PMI, 10:00 Factory Orders, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI, 10:00 Construction Spending, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing Prices, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, Vehicle Sales all day. Friday US markets are closed for Good Friday but there is data which is VERY unusual so this maybe rescheduled 8:30 Non Farm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Monday pre market APOL, and after the bell NCTY. Tuesday pre market CIE, LDK and after the bell EXFO, ZZ, TISI. Wednesday pre market DG, OSTK, RAD, and after the bell BLUD, MOS, RIMM, XRTX. Thursday pre market AZZ, KMX, SCHN, SCHL and after the bell MU, PBY. Friday nothing due out US markets are closed.
BKX (Banks) closed -.13 at 52.30. Support: 51.76, 51.19, 50.50, 49.84 Resistance: 52.68, 53.14-53.46, 54.13
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
24 Mar, 2009
Wednesday closed the day with a narrow inside range down day across the broader markets. Volume once again was split with the NYSE slightly higher than Tuesday and the Nasdaq slightly lighter. Futures were mixed with the ES and NQ higher leaving the TF odd man out with lighter volume. The TRIN closed bullish at .68 and remained flat throughout the day. The VIX closed at 17.55 just off the 17.92 highs. Gold couldn't find a bounce and fell $14.70 to $1089 an ounce and oil down $1.30 to $80.61 a barrel.
The inside day was very digestive and let the bears have a little pullback to work off some of the lift the market has seen with no pullbacks. The day's range will be where we look for direction into Thursday. Wednesday delivered disappointing economic data and held up better than it would have months ago on bad data. Which leaves me to think the bears aren't going to get out of control easily and this uptrend has a tight hold on pullbacks. Indicators are still flat and with no real conviction until we see that low break don't get overly bearish.
Thursday brings additional data to the market and could be a market mover early on to set the days tone. Futures look for 1156.50 to test on the ES with a move under 1161. Back over 1166.75 look for the gap at 1169.5 and onto new highs on the week for the ES Banks helped to prop the ES up today keep an eye on 52.48 as resistance then a move onto 54.14, a break under 51.46 the 10dma should help to push lower for a pullback. That would likely weight the ES for a move to 1156.5 and onto 1152.5.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Final GDP, 8:30 Final GDP Price Index, 9:55 Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Revised UoM Inflation Expectations.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Thursday pre market BBY, CAG, LULU, SCHL, GASS, TXI, UTIW and after the bell CAN, FINL, ORCL, PBY, TBIX, WTSLA. Friday nothing due out.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
23 Mar, 2009
Tuesday left the broader markets on the highs for another green day. Volume was mixed with the NYSE slightly higher than Monday and the Nasdaq slightly lighter than Monday. Futures all came in lighter on the day. The indexes although all closed green saw the Russell 2000 and the Dow outpace the advance of the Nasdaq and S&P 500. The VIX closed at 16.35 just over the 16.17 3/19 lows and our next support will be 15.82 from May 2008 levels. The TRIN was flat all day and closed at .74 right in the range it spent the day at. While the A/D and U/D lines meandered around until 2:20 when the momentum finally picked up to advance us into a move that found buyers. Gold closed up $6.30 to $1105.80 and oil up 31 cents to $81.91 a barrel.
While most of the day sat in a tiny range there was very little conviction and finally the indexes ticked through the highs after 3 prior attempts failed. That has been our story a lot lately, no conviction and creep mode then finally we move. That leaves intraday charts with a huge amount of divergence and overbought conditions quickly making it even more difficult to find anything to do with calculated risk. As the market continues to climb the RSI on the daily chart is now 75 on each index. Once we move over 70 we become cautious about overbought conditions squeezing the market too far, but we can move well over 80 before that really takes hold. So that alone is not a good indicator to gauge overbought/oversold conditions. Stochastics are still not overbought, CCI is not and the MACD is managing to push higher with these advances. At this point saying volume is hit and miss is a broken record and we know lately that hasn't stopped anything.
Futures gave the weekly and daily pivots a good test on Monday but Tuesday they did not test the daily. The strong push in the late day left the ES under the 1175.75 key area and that is where we look to go now that we are over 1165. The NQ 1964.25 was within reach and the NQ stalled a few points before hitting that resistance. 1972.50 and onto 1975.25 beyond that. If we open up on Wednesday that may exhaust this move and come off, a flat opening would be the worst thing for us. Another slow move creeping higher would likely take hold of the day off a flat opening. A nice gap down would create a buying opportunity for us too. So anything but flat is ideal for Wednesday. With early data it isn't likely we open flat so look for early volatility.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Wednesday 8:30 Core Durable Goods Orders, 8:30 Durable Goods Orders, 10:00 New Home Sales, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Final GDP, 8:30 Final GDP Price Index, 9:55 Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Revised UoM Inflation Expectations.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Wednesday pre market CMC, GIS, LEN, RBN and after the bell PAYX, CKR, RHT. Thursday pre market BBY, CAG, LULU, SCHL, GASS, TXI, UTIW and after the bell CAN, FINL, ORCL, PBY, TBIX, WTSLA. Friday nothing due out.
SOX (semiconductor) closed +8.22 at 372.47. Support: 370.37, 369.89, 368.03, 366.71. Resistance: 373.89, 374.34, 375.96
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
21 Mar, 2009
Friday closed the day red across the broader markets erasing Wednesday and Thursdays gains. The Dow closed strongest to be followed by the SPX then the NDX, COMPX and RUT followed. The week did post a gain and the month is still moving higher. Volume on Friday was heavier than Thursday, futures were also higher. The VIX closed at 16.97 and the TRIN at 1.34. Gold fell $2060 to $1106.90 and oil dropped $1.52 to $80.68 a barrel. The A/D and U/D Lines trended lower all day Friday and closed just off the lows.
On the daily SPX, NDX, COMPX, Dow and RUT the stochastics are starting to turn down, RSI falling to 70-69, MACD the lines are together, CCI falling. One down day pulled us off the overbought conditions and off the upper Bollinger band on those daily charts. The moving averages are still in bullish order and we sit over 10dma by a small margin on each index, another down day would put us right on those 10dma's. We haven't closed a day under the 10dma since Feb 23 with this slow crawl up.
On the weekly charts the October 2007 highs to the March 2009 lows the Dow has retraced over 50% of the losses and sits 200 points under 61.8% (11245). The Nas Composite is just under 2393.88 70.7%, Nas 100 1982.68 78.6% is the next big resistance level, and the SPX has moved to new highs nicely but still under 1228.74 61.8% resistance. All are into the upper Bollinger band on the weekly, stochastics are into 90, CCI over 100 and the RSI is up to mid 60's. The moving averages 10ma, 20ema and 50ma are in bullish order but the 200ma is still out of order.
Early Monday look for the market to have some shake out off the healthcare bill. They were suppose to vote Sunday and we'll see if that takes place and the impact if they do or don't. The market started to bounce very late day after finding some support and being short term oversold. The S&P 500 rebalancing let the SPX see the biggest late day move. There will be shake out from that too. With no data on Monday we could see a very slow opening and digest Friday's fall. We did see the range open some, but not enough to get overly excited about a pullback. Every small dip has been bought and until we see Friday's low break I would expect to see dip buyers again come in.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Monday nothing due out. Tuesday 10:00 Existing Home Sales, 10:00 HPI m/m, 10:00 Richmond Manufacturing Index. Wednesday 8:30 Core Durable Goods Orders, 8:30 Durable Goods Orders, 10:00 New Home Sales, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Final GDP, 8:30 Final GDP Price Index, 9:55 Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Revised UoM Inflation Expectations.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Monday pre market BPZ, TIF, WAG, WSM and after the bell PVH. Tuesday pre market KBH, SCS and after the bell ADBE, DRI, JBL, SONC. Wednesday pre market CMC, GIS, LEN, RBN and after the bell PAYX, CKR, RHT. Thursday pre market BBY, CAG, LULU, SCHL, GASS, TXI, UTIW and after the bell CAN, FINL, ORCL, PBY, TBIX, WTSLA. Friday nothing due out.
COMPX (Nasdaq Composite) closed -16.87 at 2374.41. Support: 2323.16, 2285.52 38.2%, 2259.61 50dma-2250.13, 2214.74. Resistance: 2393.88, 2473.20 8/18 swing high, 2519.97
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
17 Mar, 2009
Wednesday closed the day green across the broader markets on increased volume. An accumulation day is good to see for this advance, remember quadruple witching is Friday. We expect volume to climb as positions settle ahead of expiration. Although the market closed green, the close wasn't on the highs, all indexes finished about mid range. The TRIN closed bearish at 1.21 and the VIX after hitting new yearly lows (16.52) closed at 16.91, just over the January intraday low of 16.86. Gold closed up $2.30 to $1124.80 and oil up $1.23 to $82.93 a barrel.
The Nasdaq Composite, Nas 100, S&P 500 and Dow left shooting star candlesticks on the day, which if confirmed are reversal candles. Each index pierced into the upper Bollinger band, each still have a RSI over 70, stochastics mid 90's and CCI over 100 line support. The days volume hit a big spike as we put in the high on the day, that can sometimes be a sign of fatigue and present a pullback opportunity. The gap and go move also left a gap to fill below us, which will provide support and could keep the bears at bay. Breaking the support will provide the pullback we are looking for and certainly make for a nice pick up in volatility.
With the VIX hitting the January lows, we could double bottom there. The VIX has an inverse relationship to the market. A double bottom coupled with the shooting star on the indexes is reason to be skeptic of further upside until we see a pullback. However, that is pretty obvious and we've seen stronger signs than this and never confirm anything. So we'll just be neutral until we see how the first hour rolls out.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Thursday 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 CPI, 8:30 Current Account, 9:30 FOMC Member Hoenig Speaks, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:00 CB Leading, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, 12:30 FOMC Member Duke Speaks. Friday nothing due out
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Thursday pre market BKS, FDX, GME, LDK, ROST, WGO and after the bell COMS, PALM. Friday pre market PERY and nothing after the bell.
SPX (S&P 500) closed +6.75 at 1166.21. Support: 1137.82, 1121.96, 1114.49 50dma. Resistance: 1175.64, 1228.74.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
16 Mar, 2009
Tuesday the market moved higher on heavier volume. Monday's volume was anemic and Tuesday managed to move slightly higher with marginally more participation. However, the market is still well below average volume. The S&P 500 moved to a 17 month high, Nasdaq to a 18 month high after the Fed said it would keep interest rates low for an extended time. There was no surprise change in the statement and financials liked what they heard. The VIX closed at 17.69 and the TRIN very low at .53. Gold rallied to close at $1122.30 +16.90 and oil up $1.90 to $81.70 a barrel.
The leadership in financials is not where we look for leadership, but we got it from those sectors today. The Semi's (SOX) was very strong and held up well but they left the hardware as the weakest sector which left the Nasdaq under pacing the SPX on the day. A strong A/D and U/D line with the low TRIN helped to support the move with higher volume today. Which leaves me less weary of the lift and if the Nasdaq had been the index leading I would have no problems with today at all. The daily charts on the NDX, SPX, and the Dow all have the upper Bollinger nearing, RSI 72-75, stochastics flat in the mid 90's and the CCI just over 100. Intraday and daily charts are nearing overbought levels, but there is still some room to move.
Good data on Wednesday just maybe the fuel the bulls need to come out strong Wednesday morning. Any disappointment could start opening the profit takers gates and let us pullback. Futures did not test the daily pivots, Wednesday's are not far off Tuesday's close so they should be seen with little effort Wednesday as a rotational level. I would expect another quiet night session and even for this tight range to continue. The slow move up each day is not full of momentum, but the bulls are holding the trend. The market is seeing overbought conditions and divergence persist each day while the bulls continue on. Which is not normally something we see for extended periods but as the market takes these baby steps up there is no way to second guess it until the pullback comes in. A pullback would likely correct most of the lacking momentum and put things in an orderly pattern. Finding that pullback maybe a long wait though, so we just have to go with it.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Wednesday 8:30 PPI, 8:30 Core PPI, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 CPI, 8:30 Current Account, 9:30 FOMC Member Hoenig Speaks, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:00 CB Leading, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, 12:30 FOMC Member Duke Speaks. Friday nothing due out
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Wednesday pre market GIS, SMTS and after bell MLHR, HIS, NKE. Thursday pre market BKS, FDX, GME, LDK, ROST, WGO and after the bell COMS, PALM. Friday pre market PERY and nothing after the bell.
SOX (semiconductor) closed +9.44 at 359.87. Support: 355.66, 354.20, 352.74, 351.64, 348.75. Resistance: 361.27, 363.55, 366.62 1/11 gap, 370.91
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
15 Mar, 2009
Monday closed the day split with the Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 slightly red and the S&P 500 along with the Dow modestly green. Overall the day was a narrow range that looked like it would be heavy early on and once again buyers stepped in and turned the market around. The VIX closed at 18.00 and the TRIN at 1.03, which is still bearish but was well off the days range it sat in at 1.35. Gold closed up $3.90 to $1105.0 and oil down $1.48 to $79.76.
The Nasdaq Composite (COMPX) and Nas 100 dropped through Friday's low, but snapped back to close within Friday's range. The hanging man candle left on Friday was confirmed with the modestly lower close today, but the volume was not there. Volume has been the elephant in the room on most every possible pattern developing for the bulls or the bears in the past three months, so this isn't a new problem. Follow through on the pattern would result in a pullback though. The S&P 500 (SPX) closed just 52 cents higher than Friday's high and like the Nasdaq indexes it dropped Friday's low only to snapback in range. The Dow close very near Friday's high and left a long lower shadow on that candlestick to form a hanging man. It will need a down day Tuesday to confirm that candlestick as a reversal bar. As a side note, hanging men candles are the least reliable reversal candles. So don't assume the Nas follows through off this or the Dow can confirm it.
Futures finally straightening up and flying right, a daily and weekly pivot test today. The range was limited and much tighter than we'd like to see but it is only Monday. A Monday ahead of FOMC meeting the range is often small. The next meeting doesn't take place until May 16th so we have a nice two month break and that is when we could start seeing more action out of the Fed. Tuesday will kick off the day with data and likely quiet down ahead of the Fed announcement. Not a lot of change is expected in the statement but there is likely to be some change in the wording. The market is looking to summer for any real change and there maybe hints of that timeline in the 2:15 release.
The close was a strong one and with a lag in AAPL and GOOG today the Nasdaq underpaced the other indexes. Look for the Nasdaq to shake off that weakness tomorrow early or for the rest of the market to look at the Nasdaq for leadership. Tread lightly with any gap up that the SPX and Dow are ahead of the Nasdaq, like the SPX and Dow over Friday's highs and the Nas lagging, would likely not hold up and we'll see the market drop.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Tuesday 8:30 Building Permits, 8:30 Housing Starts, 8:30 Import Prices, 2:15 FOMC Statement, 2:15 Federal Funds Rate. Wednesday 8:30 PPI, 8:30 Core PPI, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 CPI, 8:30 Current Account, 9:30 FOMC Member Hoenig Speaks, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:00 CB Leading, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, 12:30 FOMC Member Duke Speaks. Friday nothing due out
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Tuesday pre market ARIA, DSW, and after the bell DFS, SGK. Wednesday pre market GIS, SMTS and after bell MLHR, HIS, NKE. Thursday pre market BKS, FDX, GME, LDK, ROST, WGO and after the bell COMS, PALM. Friday pre market PERY and nothing after the bell.
COMPX (Nasdaq Composite) closed -5.45 at 2362.21. Support: 2337.07, 2308.46, 2270.81 38.2%, 2252.70 50dma, 2205.64. Resistance: 2387.78, 2393.88, 2473.20 8/18 swing high, 2519.97
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
14 Mar, 2009
Friday left the market with a split close, the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 closed slightly red on the day. The Nas 100 and the Dow closed marginally green on the day. All the broader markets showed a gain on the week and closed very near the highs for the week. The weeks range was not huge and resulted in a lot of light volume small steps up throughout the week. The TRIN closed bearish at .154 and the VIX at 17.58. Gold closed down $1.20 to $1107.00 and crude fell 84 cents to $81.27 a barrel.
The Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 daily charts left a hanging man candle, Stochastics lines are together sitting flat, RSI turned dwon to 75 and the CCI is 110 just over 100 line support. The SPX tipped a new closing high on the year, but could still double top with that January high. The Stochastics sit flat at 95, CCI at 109, RSI 70, and the daily candlestick left indecision with the spinning top. The Dow left a spinning top on the day, still below the January highs by about 100 points. Stochastics sit flat at 92, CCI at 111 and the RSI at 66. The COMPX, NDX and SPX weekly charts are all piercing into the upper Bollinger band, the Dow is still below.
Daily charts don't tell us a lot, every lift in this market hasn't come from anything orderly, it is just a market on the run. The market continues to look stuck and ready to pullback and never gets the job done. Futures did not test the weekly pivot for the third time in four weeks. That along with disappearing volatility and volume has left us sitting a lot of the time. The week ahead will likely not be the same action and with a FOMC meeting we have some possibility of volatility really increasing. Financial reform bill from Senator Dodd is supposed to be out this week, that also could provide a lot of opportunity. Next week is also quadruple witching week.
Futures should trade down to the weekly pivots Monday. They aren't far off Friday's close because of the narrow range last week it won't make for a lot of challenge. I do think we'll see those level as a ledge in the market and a rotational point. ES 1141.75, NQ 1910.75 and TF 670.90 are the weekly levels. The ES and NQ that would also be under Friday's low, that would likely provide the market with an orderly pullback and then some digestion.
COMPX (Nasdaq Composite) closed -.80 at 2367.66. Support: 2337.07, 2308.46, 2270.81 38.2%, 2251.28 50dma, 2205.64. Resistance: 2387.78, 2393.88, 2473.20 8/18 swing high, 2519.97
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Monday 8:30 Empire State Manufacturing Index, 9:00 TIC Long Term Purchases, 9:15 Capacity Utilization Rate, 9:15 Industrial Production, 1:00 NAHB Housing Market Index. Tuesday 8:30 Building Permits, 8:30 Housing Starts, 8:30 Import Prices, 2:15 FOMC Statement, 2:15 Federal Funds Rate. Wednesday 8:30 PPI, 8:30 Core PPI, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 CPI, 8:30 Current Account, 9:30 FOMC Member Hoenig Speaks, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:00 CB Leading, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, 12:30 FOMC Member Duke Speaks. Friday nothing due out
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Monday pre market BPZ, OSTK and after the bell ESC, SQNM. Tuesday pre market ARIA, DSW, and after the bell DFS, SGK. Wednesday pre market GIS, SMTS and after bell MLHR, HIS, NKE. Thursday pre market BKS, FDX, GME, LDK, ROST, WGO and after the bell COMS, PALM. Friday pre market PERY and nothing after the bell.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
11 Mar, 2009
Thursday closed the day higher making 10 of the last 11 days with higher closes for the broader markets. The volume was incredibly light today so once again we lift on light volume. The participation is just not hitting on all cylinders for this market still. The Nasdaq continues to march higher with new 52 week highs, the SPX had a new closing high on the year, but not all time high. The TRIN closed at .47 very bullish and the VIX at 18.06 on the lows. Gold closed unchanged at $1108.10 on the day and oil up 2 cents to $82.11.
The market is still overbought despite the attempt to pullback the bears were still not able to get the market moving. Friday will start the day with early data and likely provide an early move off the opening. The first hour will be used to find a range for us and then we'll bracket it, any break of that hour is likely to be the direction of the day. After two weeks of a huge advance the day may sit in range and do little or make people nervous enough to take some off the table.
Futures did not test the weekly pivot last week and so far they have not this week, at this point it would result in a huge fall to see that happen on Friday. I am not expecting that much of a drop, so that will leave us with two weeks outside the norm. Unusual to say the least, making new highs brings in hysteria and we see unusual things. I don't expect the narrow ranges to continue and then the market accelerate like we've seen this week. So bare with the conditions and don't overtrade in the meantime.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Friday 8:30 Core Retail Sales, 8:30 Retail Sales, 9:55 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, 10:00 Business Inventories. Monday 8:30 Empire State Manufacturing Index, 9:00 TIC Long Term Purchases, 9:15 Capacity Utilization Rate, 9:15 Industrial Production, 1:00 NAHB Housing Market Index. Tuesday 8:30 Building Permits, 8:30 Housing Starts, 8:30 Import Prices, 2:15 FOMC Statement, 2:15 Federal Funds Rate. Wednesday 8:30 PPI, 8:30 Core PPI, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 CPI, 8:30 Current Account, 9:30 FOMC Member Hoenig Speaks, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:00 CB Leading, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, 12:30 FOMC Member Duke Speaks. Friday nothing due out
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Friday pre market ANN, KIRK, PEI and nothing after the bell. Monday pre market BPZ, OSTK and after the bell ESC, SQNM. Tuesday pre market ARIA, DSW, and after the bell DFS, SGK. Wednesday pre market GIS, SMTS and after bell MLHR, HIS, NKE. Thursday pre market BKS, FDX, GME, LDK, ROST, WGO and after the bell COMS, PALM. Friday pre market PERY and nothing after the bell.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Friday's pivot 1142.25, weekly pivot 1126.50. Intraday support: 1141.50, 1138.50, 1134, 1132.75, 1129.25, 1121 38.2%, 1117.50 fills gap, 1113, 1105.25, 1098.50 fills gap, 1094. Resistance: 1148.25, 1151, 1154, 1159.50, 1166.25, 1170.75, 1175.75
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
9 Mar, 2009
Tuesday closed the day green and on heavier volume, following Monday's anemic volume and range it didn't take much to outpace. The VIX closed at 17.92 and the TRIN at .74 bullish on the day. The day stalled out at 1:30 and started to tip off the highs slowly. Gold closed down $2.20 to $1121.80 and oil closed off 38 cents to $81.49 a barrel.
The close was mid range and left a shooting star candlestick on the day for each index. The Nas Composite and Nas 100 left stochastics at 95 and the lines coming together, CCI fell off today despite the higher close and the RSI at 71. The Nas 100 hit new highs on the year and the Nas Composite is still making new highs on the year. Positive move for each index and with volume, however that daily candle and the overbought condition has to bring in some cautiousness for further upside. The SPX stochastics are starting to turn down and closed at 94, RSI is 66 so not as high as the Nasdaq and the CCI dropped on the day into 139. The Dow has a 92 stochastics starting to turn down, RSI 62 and CCI falling again despite the higher close so divergence there. The Dow and SPX aren't piercing the upper Bollinger band like the Nasdaq indexes.
Looking at some key sectors the internets (INX) is very overbought, telecom (XTC) not as overbought as the INX but certainly should be watched at this level. Banks and brokers are into price resistance, but not overbought. The SOX remains in the range its been stuck in for six days. Hardware is also into price resistance and stuck under the 50dma. So some room still but not necessarily a lot of room and Internets really bother me at this level. Few stocks, AAPL (Apple) is over extended and into fib extension resistance. Google (GOOG) is into 38.2% retracement resistance and the 50dma. The daily is bothersome at this level and a pullback into 535 area would be healthy.
Into Wednesday I will look for the possible 5 minute and 13 minute inverted cup and handle to continue to form. The day ran out of time so we are starting the handle, keep posted for this into Wednesday. That is a bearish pattern if it triggers which would have to be early Wednesday to finish and trigger. Futures still have not seen the weekly pivot and after missing it last week we are on watch this week for that lower level to test. Those levels would come very close to the inverted cup and handle measured move.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Wednesday 10:00 Wholesale Inventories, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 2:00 Federal Budget Balance. Thursday 8:30 Trade Balance, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Core Retail Sales, 8:30 Retail Sales, 9:55 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, 10:00 Business Inventories.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Wednesday pre market AEO, PLCE, QLTI, and after the bell BLDP, FCEL, GYMB, HOTT, IPAR, JAS, MW, SMTC, WES. Thursday pre market ARIA, IMAX, NGPC, NPSP, GASS, and after the bell GG, NABI, NSM, PSUN, SEAC, SHFL, ZUMZ. Friday pre market ANN, KIRK, PEI and nothing after the bell.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
7 Mar, 2009
Friday closed the day green across the board on heavier volume. A nice accumulation day for the broader markets. The VIX closed at 17.42 getting closer to the 16.86 the January 11th lows and the lowest level since May 2008. The TRIN closed at .42 very bullish along with a very bullish A/D and U/D lines. Gold closed up $4.40 to $1137.50 and oil up $1.29 to $81.50 a barrel.
The Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 moved to new highs for the year, the Nas 100, S&P 500 and Dow remain under the January highs. The daily charts are into the upper Bollinger Band, Stochastics are 91-95, RSI are 63-69, CCI all over 150 and the MACD pointed up. With the move the market saw on Friday with the gap up we are short term over extended. That doesn't mean the market won't remain over extended for awhile. However, it does mean the market will struggle to move up and will need a great deal of participation to keep pushing higher without a pullback.
Futures did not test the weekly pivot, they did the prior week and missed the week before that. That is very unusual, normally we wouldn't see the market miss the weekly pivot more than once in 6-7 weeks. The daily has also been very hit and miss this past week with only 2 days of the last 5 testing the daily pivot. That is outside of the normal and the low volume we've seen is really making the market on edge. Monday I'd like to see a pullback and if that is on lighter volume it will help the bulls to retest the highs and see if the NDX, SPX and Dow catch up to the Nas Composite and Russell 2000.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Monday nothing due out. Tuesday 10:00 IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism. Wednesday 10:00 Wholesale Inventories, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 2:00 Federal Budget Balance. Thursday 8:30 Trade Balance, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Core Retail Sales, 8:30 Retail Sales, 9:55 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, 10:00 Business Inventories.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Monday pre market BPZ, and after the bell NCTY, TIVO. Tuesday pre market DKS, KR, NXG and after the bell JCG. Wednesday pre market AEO, PLCE, QLTI, and after the bell BLDP, FCEL, GYMB, HOTT, IPAR, JAS, MW, SMTC, WES. Thursday pre market ARIA, IMAX, NGPC, NPSP, GASS, and after the bell GG, NABI, NSM, PSUN, SEAC, SHFL, ZUMZ. Friday pre market ANN, KIRK, PEI and nothing after the bell.
COMPX (Nasdaq Composite) closed +34.04 at 2326.35. Support: 2277.60, 2247.48-2240.37 38.2%, 2226.04, 2186.83. Resistance: 2347.41, 2387.78, 2393.88, 2473.20 8/18 swing high, 2519.97
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
1 Mar, 2009
Wednesday closed the day mixed on light volume. The Nasdaq Composite and the Dow were modestly red while the Nas 100 and S&P 500 were slightly green on the day. The highlight of the day was the Russell 2000 index that made new highs on the year. The narrow range day left another lackluster daily candle with a long upper shadow to make the bulls weary. Futures volume came in mixed today with the ES higher and the NQ along with the TF lighter on the day. The TRIN closed just off the highs at .98 and the VIX at 18.82. Gold closed up $6.10 to $1143.50 and oil up $1.19 to $80.87 a barrel.
Tuesday left possible reversal candles, Wednesday left another to watch for confirmation. The market still holds under 78.6% resistance and had the door open for two days to break out and move with market breadth charging higher today and again unable to advance. Buyers disappear and profit takers step in by afternoon with action like that. The MACD and RSI indicators on the daily charts for the indexes have flattened off and let the market sit sideways with no volatility to be found. Banks, Brokers, Hardware, Internets, and the SOX closed red, healthcare and telecom stayed green into the bell.
The resistance over the markets is becoming a brick wall, but any catalyst can gap us over this level like we saw on Monday. So don't let the wall fool you, participation is still suspect and that should pick up the closer we get to the Job's data. If it doesn't I think that is a red flag for the bulls. Assuming Friday's data comes in-line with what we saw off ADP the market should not be fearful and hold its ground.
Futures still have the key resistance overhead, the ES rejected 1125 after two tests. The C leg of the ABC pattern I mentioned last night is still intact and possibly setting up. Often with reversal patterns a retest of the high or a lower high is needed. The ES retested the NQ left a slightly lower high, the TF voided it by breaking out to new highs. However that isn't unusual in that is will go with the overall market direction eventually after running around on its own. 38.2% on the ES is 1109.5, NQ 1831 and the TF 624.90 for support on any retracement. We did test the daily pivot and moved around it, but still no weekly pivot test.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Revised Nonfarm Productivity, 8:30 Revised Unit Labor Costs, 10:00 Pending Home Sales, 10:00 Factory Orders, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 NonFarm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings. 3:00 Consumer Credit.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Thursday pre market ARIA, ATPG, BABY, OSTK, STP, URBN, WEN and after the bell COO, DDS, BOOM, IDSY, MRVL, SMTC, SPWRA. Friday pre market SOLF and after the bell LMIA.
SPX (S&P 500) closed +.48 at 1118.79. Support: 1110.52, 1101.18, 1094.64 38.2%, 1075.50. Resistance: 1119.41, 1127.78 78.6%, 1150.45 1/19 swing high.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
1 Mar, 2009
Monday closed the day on the highs, the market opened strong and continued higher throughout the day. Volume was split on the day with the NYSE lighter than Friday and the Nasdaq slightly higher than Friday. Futures were split with the ES and TF lower and NQ higher. The TRIN closed at .83 in the bulls territory, it took awhile to see the TRIN fall out of the bears zone, which didn't tell us the rally was broad based. By day's end things were better but that is still not as low of a number as I would expect on a trend day up. Showing we were seeing the bulls buy but also seeing sellers. The VIX showed us a new swing low closing at 19.26 dropping the February 22nd low of 19.59. Gold closed down 60 cents to $1118.30 and oil down 96 cents to $78.70 a barrel.
The Nasdaq Composite moved through 2239.90 61.8% resistance and now has 2277.89 78.6% fib resistance left to clear before looking for the January highs. The Nas 100 has 1857.99 resistance before the January 1897.49 highs to watch for. S&P 500 moved over 1109.98 resistance and now we can look for 1127.78 overhead. The Dow just edged over 10388 61.8% and now needs to stay over that level to work toward 10538.40. Moving through 61.8% is a bullish move on the indexes, now we have to stay over that level to continue onward to 78.6%. I said last week we would probably gap and go over the resistance, futures did but the cash indexes required some work to get over the hump. A confirmation day to close higher is still needed to keep moving forward. The volume was hit and miss the TRIN remained higher than I thought it should to be real bullish. Which leaves me to walk into Tuesday with cautious optimism for continuation.
Futures moved higher and over 1107 for the ES, 633.80 for the TF and 1827.75 for the NQ. Futures did not test the daily or weekly pivots today. Which leaves us to still look for that to come this week. The daily will be easy to hit into Tuesday, but the weekly is well below us and would require a much deeper pullback. The ES onto 1125 is the next key level now that we've cleared 1107 and the NQ has 1860 and TF 648.90.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Tuesday Vehicle Sales all day. Wednesday 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts, 8:15 ADP Non Farm Employment Change, 10:00 ISM Non Manufacturing PMI, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 2:00 Beige Book. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Revised Nonfarm Productivity, 8:30 Revised Unit Labor Costs, 10:00 Pending Home Sales, 10:00 Factory Orders, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 NonFarm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings. 3:00 Consumer Credit.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Tuesday pre market AZO, SPLS, UNFI and after the bell BGFV, EGLE, HOV, PDLI, PAY. Wednesday pre market BIG, BJ, COST, JOYG, and after the bell CRA, FL, NGS, PETM, SIA, VM, VOLC. Thursday pre market ARIA, ATPG, BABY, OSTK, STP, URBN, WEN and after the bell COO, DDS, BOOM, IDSY, MRVL, SMTC, SPWRA. Friday pre market SOLF and after the bell LMIA.
SPX (S&P 500) closed +11.22 at 1115.71. Support: 1104.62, 1088.75, 1071.86, 1059.82. Resistance: 1119.41, 1127.78, 1150.45 1/19 swing high.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
23 Feb, 2009
Tuesday delivered a blow to the market after a disappointing Consumer Confidence number, the worst in 10 months. Volume came in mixed with the NYSE higher and the Nasdaq lower, futures were all slightly lighter than Monday's. The TRIN closed at 2.64 very bearish and the VIX at 21.37. Gold closed the day lower by $10.10 to $1103 and oil was down $1.47 to $78.84 a barrel. Big red across the markets with little relief after the data hit.
Keep in mind the narrow range on Monday let the market digest last weeks action which moved us right into 61.8% resistance. The market had to go or come off that level and possibly try again. The data was really a surprise and the catalyst we needed to move off of yesterdays narrow day. The expansion came in fast and furious before pausing on support and rotating around for some retracement. The fall did give the market a nice range and the over 2 TRIN leaves us looking for an early bounce. Each of the indexes fell back under the 50dma, which all converge in the 61.8% fib resistance zone, leaving that as the line in the sand over us still. Under us we still have the February 5th swing low as support.
Futures managed to test the weekly pivots today and we saw the daily as well. After last week being absent of those key levels we knew this week would deliver and it definitely made for a bulls eye target under us today. Wednesday we should see heavier volume come in, some institutions have to get things settled 3 days before month end leaving Wednesday as the key day, others can run right to the end of the month. Which is why futures and equities alike should see volumes increase Wednesday through Friday.
Watch for an early bounce, a gap down would be very exhaustive and give the markets an early snap. If we gap up it is more likely to dance around and leave us hanging around before we see a nice move. Until we take out last weeks high we look for weakness to come in off bounces. Plenty of data into 10 and Fed Chairman Bernanke along with Treasury Secretary Geithner speaking could provide us with a nice bit of volatility. Let's hope no huge shockers off the data, the market can only take so much surprise in one week.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Wednesday tentative 10:00 Fed Chairman Bernanke testifies, 10:00 New Home Sales, 10:00 Treasury Sec Geithner Speaks, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 8:30 Core Durable Goods Orders, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Durable Goods Orders, 10:00 HPI m/m, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Prelim GDP, 8:30 Prelim GDP Price Index, 9:45 Chicago PMI, 9:55 Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Revised UoM Inflation Expectations, 10:00 Existing Home Sales.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Wednesday pre market DLTR, FSRV, GRMN, SKS, TJX, TOL, UNFI and after the bell ESRX, GDP, NTES, CRM, SMSI, JAVA Thursday pre market ABK, CSE, FTO, ITWO, MYL, NEM, ZEUS, OMG, ZLC and after the bell DECK, DRYS, ERES, GPS, TIE. Friday pre market BIOS, FRO, GAS, TTI and after the bell AES.
COMPX (Nasdaq Composite) closed -28.59 at 2213.44. Support: 2192.64, 2174.99, 2132.19. Resistance: 2234.12, 2260.03, 2277.89, 2290.33
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
18 Feb, 2009
Thursday finished the day on the highs for another day of gains across the broader markets. Volume on the NYSE and Nasdaq came in lighter than Wednesday's action, but futures were modestly higher on the day. The VIX closed at 20.63 and the TRIN at .75 bullish on the day. Gold fell $1.10 to $1119 an ounce and oil closed up $1.73 to $79.06 a barrel. The bullish day received a big surprise after the bell. About 4:30pm eastern the Fed surprised the markets with a rate change. Futures reacted with a drop into the days lows, as I type comments we sit under yesterdays low.
Fed raises discount rate to 0.75% from 0.50%-- Bloomberg Reiterates that it will leave the main rate at low levels for an 'extended period' Federal Reserve says shortening typical maximum maturity for primary credit loans to overnight, effective March 18 - Reuters -Update-
SAYS RAISES MINIMUM BID RATE FOR TERM AUCTION FACILITY TO 0.5 PERCENT. SAYS CHANGES DO NOT SIGNAL ANY CHANGE IN OUTLOOK FOR ECONOMY OR MONETARY POLICY. SAYS CHANGES INTENDED AS A FURTHER NORMALIZATION OF LENDING FACILITIES. CHANGES NOT EXPECTED TO LEAD TO TIGHTER FINANCIAL CONDITIONS FOR HOUSEHOLDS, BUSINESSES. OUTLOOK FOR ECONOMY, POLICY REMAINS ABOUT AS IT WAS AT JANUARY FOMC MEETING.
So with this looming over the market we can expect a weak globex session and for that weakness to make for a large gap in the morning. Markets don't like surprises and this was a pretty big one. The market was short term overbought and now we'll open (assuming the markets continue this drift lower tonight) with oversold conditions. Usually we see the market try to digest and shake off part of the losses with such a big move in the afterhours. The week will definitely get a haircut if the market can't shrug off part of the losses we are currently seeing in the globex session for futures.
Look for 1081 ES support and 1781 on the NQ as key levels to test early on. Futures have not seen the weekly pivots, but that would be really extreme at this point to expect to see. Anything is possible but that would be a panic exit to see that low on the markets. Friday is also option expiration for February options, which usually leads to higher volume and some tug of war once the market is in range after that first 90 minutes. This news may help us not sit in such tight ranges, so keep a quick hand and eye ready off the opening.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Friday 8:00 FOMC Member Dudley Speaks, 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 CPI. Monday nothing due out. Tuesday 9:00 S&P Composite 20 HPI, 10:00 Consumer Confidence, 10:00 Richmond Manufacturing Index, 5:00 FOMC Member Bullard Speaks. Wednesday tentative Fed Chairman Bernanke testifies, 10:00 New Home Sales, 10:00 Treasury Sec Geithner Speaks, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 8:30 Core Durable Goods Orders, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Durable Goods Orders, 10:00 HPI m/m, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Prelim GDP, 8:30 Prelim GDP Price Index, 9:45 Chicago PMI, 9:55 Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Revised UoM Inflation Expectations, 10:00 Existing Home Sales.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Friday pre market JCP, PCG, SHPGY and nothing after the bell. Monday pre market LOW, OIS, and after the bell BRCD, JWN, RSH, XNPT. Tuesday pre market BKS, HD, HURN, IDA, ISLE, LIZ, M, MDT, SHLD, TGT, and after the bell ADSK, DWA, ONXX, OSIP, WYNN. Wednesday pre market DLTR, FSRV, GRMN, SKS, TJX, TOL, UNFI and after the bell ESRX, GDP, NTES, CRM, SMSI, JAVA Thursday pre market ABK, CSE, FTO, ITWO, MYL, NEM, ZEUS, OMG, ZLC and after the bell DECK, DRYS, ERES, GPS, TIE. Friday pre market BIOS, FRO, GAS, TTI and after the bell AES.
NQ (Nas 100 e-mini) Friday's pivot 1817, weekly pivot 1765.75. Support: 1797.75, 1789.5, 1781 38.2%, 1776.50, 1773.50, 1767.50. Resistance: 1821.50, 1825-1827.75, 1841.50, 1844.50, 1859.50
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
15 Feb, 2009
Friday split the close with the Nasdaq 100 and Nasdaq Composite green and the S&P 500 and Dow closed red. The week closed up after four losing weeks, however the win was modest and an inside week. Leaving us with a very narrow range and now we will go into a shortened week. The volume was higher on Friday for an accumulation day on the Nas and distribution on the SPX and Dow. The NYSE volume was huge, a lot of which was due to the Berkshire B shares add to the S&P 500 index brought in huge levels of participation. The VIX closed at 22.73 and the TRIN bearish at 1.45. Gold closed down $5.90 to $1088.80 and oil down $12.4 to $74.04 on the day.
The indexes are sitting just below key resistance. Nas Composite 2186.54 with the 50dma at 2227.39, Nas 100 1783.41-1818.50 50dma, SPX 1084.97-1108.72 50dma, Dow 10176.90 and Russell 200 617.43 50dma. Those resistance levels along with the CCI just at 0 line resistance, stochastics are turned up, MACD lines are coming up, RSI moving up, leaving only the moving averages to turn and see the shorter term 10dma and 20dema get into bullish order. Aside from the moving averages the doors are opening slowly for the bulls, but now the resistance we sit into will have to open both doors to get this upside any continuation.
The NQ (Nasdaq 100 futures) closed right into the swing high from 2/3, that is very similar on many of the cash indexes too. This is key off that ABC pattern we started watching for early last week. We've held the lows and came off slowly and now over the prior swing high to turn the trend with some power is what we need to see. The market is taking baby steps so far and with Friday's close up on the highs, that provided for a strong finish also right into the key 1783.5 38.2% on the weekly NQ chart. Futures high level close and the resistance over us is likely to need a pullback. Rejection of these resistance points would be very bearish leaving this week to make some decisions for us. The weekly pivot is below Friday's close and that would be a healthy pullback off the lift and let the pullback buyers get in the market.
This week along with being shortened is also option expiration week for February options. Historical trends have meant very little in the past year but I like to point out what has happened in the past regardless of those trends being hit and miss. Tuesday has been bullish and the rest of the week bearish in February expiration week.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Monday US Markets are closed. Tuesday 8:30 Empire State Manufacturing Index, 9:00 TIC Long Term Purchases, 12:00 FOMC Member Hoenig Speaks, 1:00 NAHB Housing Market Index. Wednesday 8:30 Building Permits, 8:30 Housing Starts, 8:30 Import Prices, 9:15 Capacity Utilization Rate, 9:15 Industrial Production, 2:00 FOMC Meeting Minutes. Thursday 8:30 PPI, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Core PPI, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:00 CB Leading Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, 11:00 Crude Oil Inventories, 6:00 pm FOMC Member Duke Speaks. Friday 8:00 FOMC Member Dudley Speaks, 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 CPI
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Monday US Markets closed. Tuesday pre market ANF, KFT, MRK, Q, TEVA, and after the bell LZB, PACR, VCLK, WFMI, WINN. Wednesday pre market DE, DVN, ENZN, GENZ, MSO, NICE, PFCB, XTO and after the bell AEM, ADI, AMAT, CECO, CHK, FARO, HPQ, LVS, NTAP, NVDA, PCLN. Thursday pre market APA, GT, ITWO, INCY, MGM, POOL, PDE, TRA, TTC, WMT, and after the bell DELL, FSLR, INTU, JCOM, WMGI. Friday pre market JCP, PCG, SHPGY and nothing after the bell.
NQ (Nas 100 e-mini) Tuesday's pivot 1773.75, weekly pivot 1765.75. Support: 1755.75, 1747, 1738.50, 1732, 1726.25, 1722.50, 1718.50-1717, 1710.75, 1707, 1702.25. Resistance: 1783.50 38.2% (daily)-1785.50 fills gap-1786.50 swing high, 1803.25-1805.50, 1809 fills gap, 1816.75 50dma, 1821.50, 1825
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
11 Feb, 2009
Thursday another day playing around then the bulls stepped in and rallied the markets. A nice lift looked promising to test the big resistance overhead, but the final 90 minutes paused under that key level to close green. The NYSE, Nasdaq and futures all closed with slightly higher volume than the markets saw on Wednesday. Although the days volume was enough for an accumulation day it was still below average, indicating the market is missing mutual fund and institutional volume. So far the week is alternating up and down days, but as we sit now the week has some gains over last week and Friday will determine if we break that four week losing streak. The TRIN closed at .84 bullish and the VIX at 23.96. Gold closed up $18.90 to $1095.20 and oil up 76 cents to $75.28 a barrel.
The indexes fell shy of the 38.2% retracements at 2186.54 for the Nas Composite, 1783.41 Nas 100, 1084.97 SPX and Dow 10176.90. The drop off the January 11th highs to our lows last week leave that retracement as key, an orderly bounce would reject that level or let us over and see the upside continue after a correction. A test of that level early Friday is likely to just leave the market to chop. Expecting a lot leading into a three day weekend is not usually what we would look for. Volume is likely to fall off after the first 90 minutes and leave us with some dull chop.
Since the week has been lighter volume because weather we may see some spiky action after the opening. Data is due out and some data that didn't come out Wednesday and Thursday should come out on Friday. That will help our volatility and keep some participation around for us. Short term the market is overbought, a gap up would be exhaustive and likely pull the market back in. We need volume to break the resistance outlined above, leaving that for next week would be better than breaking on light volume.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): some data is being moved around due to weather in D.C Friday 9:55 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations. Crude and Nat Gas inventories were moved to Friday.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Friday pre market IR, PAS, UPL and nothing after the bell.
NQ (Nas 100 e-mini) Friday's pivot 1763.50, weekly pivot 1749. Support: 1762.75, 1757.75, 1752.75, 1744.75, 1736.75, 1730.50, 1725.25, 1721.50, 1718.50-1717, 1710.75, 1707, 1702.25. Resistance: 1781.50, 1785.50 fills gap-1786.50, 1803.25, 1809 fills gap, 1821.50, 1825
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
7 Feb, 2009
Tuesday brought in a slightly larger range than Monday and a green close across the broader markets. The volume on the NYSE, Nasdaq and futures came in slightly heavier than Monday. The reversal off the lows helped to increase volatility and volume, that lift came in when some talks about Greece getting financial backing from Germany hit the wires, there is also talk of what will come for Portugal, Ireland and Spain. Those countries are significantly larger economies than Greece and are said to be on shaky ground too. They haven't come forward looking for help from the EU or Germany, but there is speculation that given Greece's short fall that the others could follow. The TRIN closed at .50 bullish and the VIX at 26.00. Gold closed up $5.80 to $1072 and oil up $1.86 to $73.75 a barrel.
Friday left a possible reversal candle, which is still holding as support despite Monday coming in red and with light volume. Tuesday's move up engulfed Monday's weak day and had participation, leaving us to still look for a multistep reversal. Tuesday's action was a good start, but another day up will need to come in and move us off this level. The 50dma's are still overhead with 38.2% and testing that will be needed to determine if we are bouncing to resume a deeper pullback or reversing after the correction off the highs.
I know I've outlined the 38.2% levels each night but until we break through Friday's low that is still in-line for the bulls to get us up too. So keep it handy until we get that test and either clear it or reject it. (Support levels on the Nas Composite 2097.37, Nas 100 1705.49, SPX 1043.06, and the Dow 9714.22 should be watched to hold this week. A move back over 2186.54 for the Nas Composite, 1783.41 Nas 100, 1084.97 SPX and Dow 10176.90 will help build the upside momentum and bring in a multiday lift for the market.) Last night I was optimistically bullish, I am still on the same fence. Data picks up in the pre market Wednesday and will likely help to set the tone for the day.
After the bell BIDU and DIS came in nicely and both traded higher. The INX was one of the weaker sectors on the day, so now with BIDU behind us it can find some lift and help the Nasdaq along. Disney (DIS) will help the Dow and S&P 500 out with its strong after hours move. Futures left another gap below us on the ES and NQ unfilled. The ES needs over 1081.50 and the NQ 1781.50 to see any rally step in with conviction. 1054.5 support for the ES and NQ at 1732.25 need to hold on any pullback or the upside isn't likely to get any multi day rally going. The NQ on the chart below I labeled an A, B, C legs for a possible ABC pattern, which is a reversal pattern. The pattern can pullback, it just has to hold the prior low off C, Friday's low at 1710.75 to hold up and move the market. 1781.5 resistance into 1786.50 will be key to trigger a strong move off this reversal pattern.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Wednesday 8:30 Trade Balance, Bernanke testifies before House Financial panel, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 2:00 Federal Budget Balance. Thursday 8:30 Core Retail Sales, 8:30 Retail Sales, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 Business Inventories, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 9:55 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Wednesday pre market CSC, DF, ICE, MMC, PFCB, S, and after the bell BSX, PACR, PRU. Thursday pre market ECL, EXPE, FLIR, PTEN, PEP, and after the bell NILE, CEPH, CAKE, CMG, LVS, MFE, NVDA, PNRA, VARI. Friday pre market IR, PAS, UPL and nothing after the bell.
NQ (Nas 100 e-mini) Wednesday's pivot 1752.25, weekly pivot 1749. Support: 1745.50, 1739, 1732.25, 1727.25, 1722.75, 1719.75-1718.50-1717, 1710.75, 1707, 1702.25. Resistance: 1757, 1763.75, 1769.75, 1773.25, 1781.50, 1785.50 fills gap-1786.50, 1803.25, 1809 fills gap, 1821.50, 1825
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
7 Feb, 2009
Friday followed Thursday's weakness and sold off early in the day, by late afternoon the market was reversing and managed to close modestly green. The cash indexes (NDX, SPX, RUT) while all modestly green did not see futures get over the line by the 4:15 bell. The ES and TF closed slightly red, but overall the reversal was powerful. The markets volume was up on the day leaving an accumulation day for the NYSE and Nasdaq. The VIX closed at 26.11 and the TRIN .61 bullish on the day. Gold closed down $9.50 to $1053.20 an ounce and oil down $1.95 to $71.19 a barrel.
The day closed just over support with a nice support hammer. The weekly charts also left a hammer on the week, to confirm these reversal candles the market has to close higher. Which would likely bring in nice multiday lift. The pullback off the mid January highs has been 10% on the SPX, NDX, and the Nas Composite, the Dow is off 8%. That is a healthy corrective orderly pullback for the markets. That coupled with the hammers and over 38.2% supports will likely provide us with an upside move. If this candle and support fails to hold the market a significantly deeper drop is coming out way. My bias moving into Monday will be for a lift, look for a slow start Monday. With no economic data and starting a new week after last weeks big drop the move maybe slow.
Support levels on the Nas Composite 2097.37, Nas 100 1705.49, SPX 1043.06, and the Dow 9714.22 should be watched to hold this week. A move back over 2186.54 for the Nas Composite, 1783.41 Nas 100, 1084.97 SPX and Dow 10176.90 will help build the upside momentum and bring in a multiday lift for the market.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Monday nothing due out, Tuesday 10:00 IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, 10:00 Wholesale Inventories. Wednesday 8:30 Trade Balance, Bernanke testifies before House Financial panel, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 2:00 Federal Budget Balance. Thursday 8:30 Core Retail Sales, 8:30 Retail Sales, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 Business Inventories, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 9:55 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Monday pre market NDAQ, OMC and after the bell ATML, ERTS, ESLR, VECO, VMC. Tuesday pre market AGU, BIIB, BJS, KO, CVH, NYX, TIN, and after the bell BIDU, ULTI, DIS, XL. Wednesday pre market CSC, DF, ICE, MMC, PFCB, S, and after the bell BSX, PACR, PRU. Thursday pre market ECL, EXPE, FLIR, PTEN, PEP, and after the bell NILE, CEPH, CAKE, CMG, LVS, MFE, NVDA, PNRA, VARI. Friday pre market IR, PAS, UPL and nothing after the bell.
INDU (Dow) closed +10.05 at 10012.23. Support: 9981.03, 9899.58, 9842.88, 9767.89. Resistance: 10075, 10131.60, 10176.90 38.2%, 10212.20, 10282.50, 10388.10, 10416.19
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
2 Feb, 2009
Wednesday brought us a split finish on the market on light volume. The Nasdaq 100 (NDX) and Nas Composite (COMPX) closed the day green while the S&P 500 (SPX) and the Dow closed red. Futures volume along with the NYSE and Nasdaq fell off today despite the tech participation the market found today. The TRIN closed at 1.70 bearish on the days high and the VIX closed at 21.60. Gold fell $6.00 to $1112 an ounce and oil fell 25 cents to $76.98 a barrel.
Hardware sector (HWI) and Internet (INX) sectors moved back into the 50dma a key resistance point for two sectors that have a large impact on the Nasdaq index. The SOX, Telecomm (XTC), Brokers (XBD) all still remain under the 50dma's. Along with those key sectors we still have all the indexes (Dow, SPX, NDX, RUT, COMPX) under the 50dma's but closing in on that key moving average. Moving averages are important because they are widely watched and can trigger programs and even just the simple bear bull barometer thinking.
Fibonacci resistance at 38.2% is overhead at 10381.80 for the Dow, 1103.14 SPX (closed right into that resistance), 2211.37 COMPX, and the NDX at 1796.47. The day was a narrow range across the broader markets, but it was also an inside day for the SPX and Dow. An outside up day on the Nas 100 and Nas Composite, showing the strength in half the market and lacking in the other half. Yesterday I mentioned stochastics and the MACD for a cross up if we saw some upside today. Well the upside did close the MACD up and now the lines are converging for a cross up and stochastics even on the red indexes crossed up nicely. The RSI is turned up and the CCI is working closer to 0 line but still in negative territory. Technically speaking the market looks better with the Nasdaq's advance today, but that TRIN along with the A/D and U/D lines concern me about that lift. It is a little suspect and when you see an advance with a bearish TRIN tone. That shows the advancing shares are being sold..which can be profit taking on long positions and it can be selling to enter a short position. Remember when you short you are selling the shares and you buy to cover it when you exit.
Leaving us a little weary into Thursday and I looked over earnings that came after the bell, most saw a nice reaction to the upside. Visa (V), Cisco (CSCO), Broadcom (BRCM) all up, YUM was lower with STLD also losing a little ground. Futures didn't have a lot of reaction to even CSCO, which is the tone we've seen over the past week. I will still look for 38.2% to clear overhead for any upside lift to bring in participation. Until we clear that key level the market is trying to line up. The S&P was outpacing and well ahead of the Nasdaq after Tuesday and Wednesday chopped and churned the S&P for an inside day to let the Nasdaq advance. I call this an attempt to play catch up and get on the same page. That is a good sign, but Thursday and Friday the volume needs to increase and clear 38.2% or we'll see the downside come in heavier than last weeks drop.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Prelim Nonfarm Productivity, 8:30 Prelim Unit Labor Costs, 10:00 Factory Orders, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 NonFarm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings, G7 Meetings, 3:00 Consumer Credit m/m. Saturday G7 meetings continue.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Thursday pre market BCRX, BG, CI, CLX, CME, ITWO, K, MA, MF, PENN, PAS, SLE, SNE, HOT, and after the bell ATVI, MCHP, SUN, VARI. Friday pre market AET, BZH, BRKS, BZH, TSN, WY, YRCW and nothing after the bell.
COMPX (Nasdaq Composite) closed +.85 at 2190.91. Support: 2161.04, 2147.35 fills gap-2139.64 61.8%, 2088.90, 2024.27. Resistance: 2211.37-2228.87 50dma, 2286.49, 2326.28
SPX (S&P 500) closed -6.04 at 1097.28. Support: 1089, 1064.65, 1055.14, 1029.38. Resistance: 1113.34 50dma, 1134.07 78.6%, 1150.45.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
1 Feb, 2009
Tuesday closed the market green on heavier volume for an accumulation day. Futures volume was a little lighter on the NQ and TF, but the ES was heavier. Again today the Nasdaq lagged the S&P 500 and the Dow. The TRIN closed at .65 bullish and the VIX at 21.48. Gold closed up $13.20 to $1118.20 an ounce and oil up $2.74 to $77.17 a barrel. The advance in commodities lifted the S&P 500 to outperform the Nasdaq, because we did have tech outperforming the financials today.
Daily charts on the COMPX, NDX, SPX and Dow are moving back up toward the 50dma, stochastics have flattened off, MACD is still open to the downside, RSI up to 42-46 and the CCI is over -100 working back up to 0 line. Another up day and the stochastics would cross up and likely to retest the 50dma. 38.2% is also overhead at 10381.80 for the Dow, 1103.14 SPX (closed right into that resistance), 2211.37 COMPX, and the NDX at 1796.47. All but the SPX have some room to move before hitting 38.2% and the 50dma is in the same area. The market did this to us last week (Wednesday) with and accumulation day and left us with two big days down to follow. So that leaves us to be cautiously optimistic about this advance and continuation.
Wednesday the day starts with early employment data and they continue into 10. The market will start to think about Friday's Job's data with us hearing from ADP Wednesday. ADP use to be really off from the Governments data, but lately they've been fairly inline and reliable. So discounting the data isn't something we see any longer. Just take that with a grain of salt as we get into the data releases. With the Nasdaq lagging and the SPX into resistance, something has to give on Wednesday. Nasdaq has to step up or we'll see selling step in and kill the rally. The SPX can't lead day after day, so we have a small red flag out and watchful for the Nasdaq to catch up and test 38.2% resistance. Until then the upside is suspect and even the volume will have some work to continue.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Wednesday 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts, 8:15 ADP Non Farm Employment Change, 10:00 ISM Non Manufacturing PMI, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Prelim Nonfarm Productivity, 8:30 Prelim Unit Labor Costs, 10:00 Factory Orders, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 NonFarm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings, G7 Meetings, 3:00 Consumer Credit m/m. Saturday G7 meetings continue.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Wednesday pre market ATMI, CMCSA, HNT, IP, ITG, NOV, PFE, RL, R, SGP, SLAB, TWX, TZOO, and after the bell NDN, AFFX, AKAM, BBBB, CELL, BRCM, CSCO, ONNN, OHB, SSTI, SPF, STLD, THQI, V, YUM. Thursday pre market BCRX, BG, CI, CLX, CME, ITWO, K, MA, MF, PENN, PAS, SLE, SNE, HOT, and after the bell ATVI, MCHP, SUN, VARI. Friday pre market AET, BZH, BRKS, BZH, TSN, WY, YRCW and nothing after the bell.
COMPX (Nasdaq Composite) closed +18.86 at 2190.06. Support: 2161.23, 2140.34-2139.64, 2088.90, 2024.27. Resistance: 2211.37-2228.19 50dma, 2286.49, 2326.28
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
1 Feb, 2009
Monday marked a modest gain on the day after suffering two big down days. The inside up day brought very light volume, for a digestive tone and a day that stopped the bleeding. The VIX closed on the 10dma at 22.59 and the TRIN at .46 bullish. Gold closed up $21.50 to $1105.30 an ounce and oil up $1.54 to $74.13 a barrel. Much larger ranges on commodities than the broader markets had.
Digestive days are just that ..digestive. The start of a new month came in slowly and will likely step up the volatility Tuesday and throughout the week. Bracketing the days range will be easy because it was so narrow for a move outside and expanding. The same support levels I outlined last night are still in place. Nas Composite 2113.99 and into 2088.90 should be on watch for good support. Nas 100 is on the November 27th swing low and has 1704.88 just below as support. S&P 500 had Nov. 27th and December 9th swing lows and broke that support, look for 1055.14 support. The Dow also has support at 9899.58 after breaking the prior swing lows. If those levels don't hold this correction may accelerate deeper than the bulls can stomach.
The ES and TF did test the daily and weekly pivot, the NQ did not test the weekly today. That is still overhead at 1764.75 and we'll look for that on any strength to test. Futures narrow range left us in a tiny range all day, that should break early Tuesday and get us moving. The Nasdaq has to step in if the bulls want any advance to be successful, it lagged terribly on Monday. Tech was underperforming which is our key into Tuesday. No tech will lead us lower, tech steps in and brings the bulls we'll retrace last week's losses. 1097.25 ES, 1795 NQ and 617 TF resistance is key to any higher ground and a bigger upside move.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Tuesday 10:00 Pending Home Sales, Vehicle Sales all day. Wednesday 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts, 8:15 ADP Non Farm Employment Change, 10:00 ISM Non Manufacturing PMI, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Prelim Nonfarm Productivity, 8:30 Prelim Unit Labor Costs, 10:00 Factory Orders, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 NonFarm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings, G7 Meetings, 3:00 Consumer Credit m/m. Saturday G7 meetings continue.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Tuesday pre market ADM, BP, COCO, CMI, DOW, DHI, HSY, KFT, LXK, MAN, MRO, SU, UTI, UPS, and after the bell ACE, AFL, JDSU, MEE, MET, NWSA, QSFT, RENT, SSD, TSO, VASC, VRSN. Wednesday pre market ATMI, CMCSA, HNT, IP, ITG, NOV, PFE, RL, R, SGP, SLAB, TWX, TZOO, and after the bell NDN, AFFX, AKAM, BBBB, CELL, BRCM, CSCO, ONNN, OHB, SSTI, SPF, STLD, THQI, V, YUM. Thursday pre market BCRX, BG, CI, CLX, CME, ITWO, K, MA, MF, PENN, PAS, SLE, SNE, HOT, and after the bell ATVI, MCHP, SUN, VARI. Friday pre market AET, BZH, BRKS, BZH, TSN, WY, YRCW and nothing after the bell.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Tuesday's pivot 1083, weekly pivot 1079.50. Intraday support: 1078.75, 1074.25, 1070.75-1070.50 fills gap, 1065.50, 1062.25, 1058 70%, 1052.50, 1048 78.6%. Resistance: 1087.50, 1093, 1097.25 38.2%, 1106.75, 1116.25, 1123.50, 1129.75, 1134.25, 1138.25, 1145.75 fills gap.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
28 Jan, 2009
Friday closed the day red across the broader markets, leaving a red week and January closed with a loss. The volume on the NYSE and Nasdaq came in heavier than Thursday's to leave a distribution day. Futures were slightly lighter than Thursday's. The TRIN closed at 1.15 bearish on the NYSE and the Nasdaq at 2.05. The A/D and U/D lines closed on the lows on the NYSE and Nasdaq. The VIX closed at 24.62 still about 8.5% off the 10dma. Gold closed $1.60 to $1083.20 and oil down 76 cents to $72.88 a barrel.
Daily charts on the Nas Composite, Nas 100, S&P 500, Dow are through the lower Bollinger, stochastics at 11, RSI 33, MACD still moving lower and the ma's are converging. The week broke the 50dma on each index week and confirmed that move. A correction is healthy for the market, remember December the market did a lot of gap and go moves on light volume. Corrective moves clear up that light volume rise and fill the open gaps. The market has been straight up since November 27th so that swing low is the support we look for now.
Nas Composite 2113.99 and into 2088.90 should be on watch for good support. Nas 100 is on the November 27th swing low and has 1704.88 just below as support. S&P 500 had Nov. 27th and December 9th swing lows and broke that support, look for 1055.14 support. The Dow also has support at 9899.58 after breaking the prior swing lows. If those levels don't hold this correction may accelerate deeper than the bulls can stomach. The market has been a pretty one sided and now we get to see another side.
Monday look for an early bounce, a gap down could be the exhaustive move we need to see. Don't let that scare you off if we start weak, Friday's strong move lower throughout the day left us short term oversold and a bounce off continuation would work well for the market. Monday is also the first day of a new week and month, the last three months have had an up day for the first day. A gap up on Monday is likely to stall the market and leave us in a choppy range. The week is full of data and earnings, so look for the volatility we had last week to continue this week. Friday will holds the big card off Job's data, so the week is likely to focus forward this week into that release.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Monday 8:30 Core PCE Price Index, 8:30 Personal Spending, 8:30 Personal Income, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI, 10:00 Construction Spending, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing Prices. Tuesday 10:00 Pending Home Sales, Vehicle Sales all day. Wednesday 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts, 8:15 ADP Non Farm Employment Change, 10:00 ISM Non Manufacturing PMI, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Prelim Nonfarm Productivity, 8:30 Prelim Unit Labor Costs, 10:00 Factory Orders, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 NonFarm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings, G7 Meetings, 3:00 Consumer Credit m/m. Saturday G7 meetings continue.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Monday pre market XOM, HUM, SOHU, and after the bell APC, TUP. Tuesday pre market ADM, BP, COCO, CMI, DOW, DHI, HSY, KFT, LXK, MAN, MRO, SU, UTI, UPS, and after the bell ACE, AFL, JDSU, MEE, MET, NWSA, QSFT, RENT, SSD, TSO, VASC, VRSN. Wednesday pre market ATMI, CMCSA, HNT, IP, ITG, NOV, PFE, RL, R, SGP, SLAB, TWX, TZOO, and after the bell NDN, AFFX, AKAM, BBBB, CELL, BRCM, CSCO, ONNN, OHB, SSTI, SPF, STLD, THQI, V, YUM. Thursday pre market BCRX, BG, CI, CLX, CME, ITWO, K, MA, MF, PENN, PAS, SLE, SNE, HOT, and after the bell ATVI, MCHP, SUN, VARI. Friday pre market AET, BZH, BRKS, BZH, TSN, WY, YRCW and nothing after the bell.
SPX (S&P 500) closed -10.66 at 1073.87. Support: 1064.65, 1055.14, 1029.38. Resistance: 1101.71, 1113.85 50dma, 1133.57.
INDU (Dow) closed -53.13 at 10067.33. Support: 9981.03, 9899.58, 9842.88. Resistance: 10136, 10192.90, 10233.50, 10312.90
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
28 Jan, 2009
Thursday left the day red across the broader markets on mixed volume. The NYSE had lighter volume while the Nasdaq and futures were heavier volume. The Nasdaq closed as the weakest index with that distribution day. The VIX closed at 23.73 (8% off 10dma) and the TRIN closed bullish at .76. The A/D and U/D lines sat negative throughout the day and closed on or near the lows. Gold closed down $10.00 to $1074.50 and oil down 3 cents to $73.64 a barrel.
After the bell earnings came in strong and left MSFT up, JNPR up, AMZN up (after first dropping), KLAC down, MXIM up, RMBS down, PMCS up. The market still has that sell the news mentality going on and we can't seem to shake it. However, seeing MSFT and AMZN trading up could alter that tone in the morning. Closing on the lows and starting to come out of this bear flag that we've been watching this week on the daily charts are letting this market see a deeper correction.
The NQ dropped 1786.50 and didn't quite get to our 1756.75 target, we sat just 2.5 points off that support. With the weight on the NQ the ES lost ground and held just over 1075.25 support on the close. Banks held green on the day and brokers closed better than the tech sector's but wasn't able to close green. A weak open on Friday maybe what we need to exhaust the weeks fall and let some retracement come in on the final trading day of the month. At this point the week will close red, but a big reversal would change that, the range has been very narrow and digestive this week. Volume should stay healthy with it being the last day of the month and all the data we have into 10:00.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Friday 8:30 Advance GDP, 8:30 Advance GDP Price Index, 8:30 Employment Cost Index, 9:45 Chicago PMI, 9:55 Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Revised UoM Inflation Expectations. Monday 8:30 Core PCE Price Index, 8:30 Personal Spending, 8:30 Personal Income, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI, 10:00 Construction Spending, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing Prices. Tuesday 10:00 Pending Home Sales, Vehicle Sales all day. Wednesday 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts, 8:15 ADP Non Farm Employment Change, 10:00 ISM Non Manufacturing PMI, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Prelim Nonfarm Productivity, 8:30 Prelim Unit Labor Costs, 10:00 Factory Orders, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 NonFarm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings, G7 Meetings, 3:00 Consumer Credit m/m. Saturday G7 meetings continue.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Friday pre market CVX, FO, HON, MAT, NS, and nothing after the bell. Monday pre market XOM, HUM, SOHU, and after the bell APC, TUP. Tuesday pre market ADM, BP, COCO, CMI, DOW, DHI, HSY, KFT, LXK, MAN, MRO, SU, UTI, UPS, and after the bell ACE, AFL, JDSU, MEE, MET, NWSA, QSFT, RENT, SSD, TSO, VASC, VRSN. Wednesday pre market ATMI, CMCSA, HNT, IP, ITG, NOV, PFE, RL, R, SGP, SLAB, TWX, TZOO, and after the bell NDN, AFFX, AKAM, BBBB, CELL, BRCM, CSCO, ONNN, OHB, SSTI, SPF, STLD, THQI, V, YUM. Thursday pre market BCRX, BG, CI, CLX, CME, ITWO, K, MA, MF, PENN, PAS, SLE, SNE, HOT, and after the bell ATVI, MCHP, SUN, VARI. Friday pre market AET, BZH, BRKS, BZH, TSN, WY, YRCW and nothing after the bell.
NQ (Nas 100 e-mini) Friday's pivot 1778, weekly pivot 1827.50. Support: 1768.50, 1757.50-1756.75, 1742.25, 1739.75, 1734, 1731.75. Resistance: 1783, 1790.50, 1797.75, 1808.25, 1811.75 38.2%, 1827.75, 1843.75, 1855.75, 1866.50, 1874
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
27 Jan, 2009
Wednesday delivered a nice day for the bulls despite the slow choppy market we experienced for three hours. Volume was heavier on the NYSE and Nasdaq, leaving an accumulation day. On the 13th we had a mixed day of volume for a partial accumulation day and the 7th was also a partial day leaving the only other accumulation days this year on the 4th with today's win. It is really unusual given the number of up days we've had to have so little participation in the market. Seeing this participation today, we need it to continue or it's a one and done deal. The TRIN closed at .71 bullish and the VIX at 23.14 about 8.3% off the 10dma. Gold closed down $13.80 to $1084.50 and oil down $1.07 to $73.64.
If you've read all week you know I was alarmed on Monday with that VIX off the 10dma by 21%, now we are 8.3% off that is a huge move in a short period of time. We like to be around that 10% mark, so this side maybe overdone a little now. I expect that volatility to continue for us though as we close the month out. The TRIN along with the U/D and A/D have been in line all week with the action we've seen which is certainly better and that is due in part to the volume increase we've seen.
Last night I discussed three days for a flag, we put in that third day today. That doesn't mean we will move, a flag can be 3-7 bars, that would be 3-7 days on a daily chart. Technically it can be more than that, but for me I think that gets too long in the tooth to like it for a primary pattern to watch. It may become an undertone for me then, but not a primary. The market still sets under the 50dma on each index leaving us still under a key resistance and with a possible bearish pattern forming. Through the weeks low would trigger this pattern for another leg down. The move into -100 line on the CCI came for us today, rejection there is likely to be the first hint of the flag to trigger the pattern and put things in motion.
For the upside a move back through 38.2% of this drop would certainly put that flag to rest and make this consolidation a floor of support to pivot off of and continue the upside. The market still sets over the prior swing lows which keeps the uptrend still intact. Which leaves us to not write the bulls off and todays accumulation day has the opportunity to swing that upside door open.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Thursday 8:30 Core Durable Goods Orders, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Durable Goods Orders, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Advance GDP, 8:30 Advance GDP Price Index, 8:30 Employment Cost Index, 9:45 Chicago PMI, 9:55 Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Revised UoM Inflation Expectations.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Thursday pre market MMM, ALK, MO, T, CP, CAH, CL, LLY, F, JBHT, JBLU, LLL, LMT, MOT, NOK, OXY, OSTK, POT, PG, TYC, UA, LCC, ZMH, and after the bell AMZN, AMCC, CA, DLLR, JNPR, KLAC, LSCC, MXIM, MSFT, PMCS, RMBS, SNDK, VSEA, YRCW. Friday pre market CVX, FO, HON, MAT, NS, and nothing after the bell.
SPX (S&P 500) closed +5.33 at 1097.50. Support: 1089.56, 1064.65, 1055.14, 1029.38. Resistance: 1113, 1127.10, 1137.14, 1150.45.
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