TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point With Teresa Appleton
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
19 Nov, 2009
Thursday brought a distribution day across the broader markets off a weak start that only got worse as the day continued. Volume came in heavier on the NYSE and Nasdaq, but futures were by far higher, even more than Monday's accumulation day. The TRIN closed at 1.71 and the VIX at 22.67. A late day bounce trimmed the losses on the market and brought the TRIN and VIX off higher levels too. Gold closed up $1.00 to $1142.60 and oil down $2.08 to $77.50 a barrel.
The drop came following the three days forming the reversal off the highs, it also brought all the indicators down. The CCI is just over 0, stochastics turned down, RSI fell off, MACD is touching and could cross down now with any further downside. Making for a bearish start on a pullback, however one day does not turn a bull market. Until the market drops the prior swing low and retraces further the word reversal can't really be used. A pullback is good and this is a start for a retracement. The 50dma's are just under us and the 10dma and 20dema are just pulling in, watch for the shorter term ma's to start coming through the longer term. On the 65 minute a swing low from 11/12 is holding as support on the COMPX, NDX, SPX and the Dow. That support could allow for a right shoulder to form for a head and shoulders pattern or continue to hold and push the market back up. Dip buyers step in every time the market shows weakness so we won't rule that out until we see the bears maintain control.
Futures did test the weekly pivots, ES used 1086.5 weekly pivot as the LOD (low of day) and bounced nicely. The NQ dipped below but closed right on the weekly 1769.50 pivot. The TF dipped below and closed under the 585.5 weekly pivot. Futures also fell below S3 today, but closed back inside that range, it is very unusual to drop those levels and not retreat to them. That is why the pivots along with Resistance and support levels 1-3 are on the site daily. They can define the extremes to expect as well as the pivots for rotation levels. Friday of expiration is generally a quiet day for range and volume plays tug of war all day. After the expansion we saw on Thursday even if it wasn't expiration I would expect some digestion. Which until proven different is what to expect on the day and that means don't overtrade.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Friday nothing due out. Monday 10:00 Existing Home Sales. Tuesday 8:30 Prelim GDP, 8:30 Prelim GDP Price Index, 9:00 S&P/CS Composite 20 HPI, 10:00 CB Consumer Confidence, 10:00 Richmond Manufacturing Index, 2:00 FOMC Meeting Minutes. Wednesday 8:30 Core Durable Goods Orders, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Core PCE Price Index, 8:30 Durable Goods Orders, 8:30 Personal Spending, 8:30 Personal Income, 9:55 Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Revised UoM Inflation Expectations, 10:00 New Home Sales, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 12:00 Natural Gas Storage. Thursday US Markets are closed Happy Thanksgiving. Friday nothing due out.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Friday pre market ANN, DHI, SLM, KIRK and nothing after the bell. Monday pre market BJS, TSN and after the bell HPQ. Tuesday pre market AEO, BKS, BRCD, DLTR, HNZ, MDT and after the bell JCG, TIVO. Wednesday pre market DE, TIF and after the bell ZLC. Thursday US markets are closed. Friday pre market FRO, SFL and nothing after the bell.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Friday's pivot 1093.75, weekly pivot 1086.50. Intraday support: 1088.75, 1086.50, 1082.50, 1079.25 38.2%, 1074.50. Resistance: 1096.50, 1099.50, 1102.50, 1106.75, 1108.50 fills gap-1109.50, 1112.25, 1116, 1118.25, 1124, 1129.50
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
18 Nov, 2009
Wednesday left the day full if zigzags and a narrow range again, not quite as narrow as Tuesday but close. The day closed red across the broader markets for a modest loss and volume came in slightly higher on the NYSE and Nasdaq for distribution days. Futures came in mixed on the day for volume with the ES and TF lighter than Tuesday leaving only the NQ higher. The TRIN closed at ..68, bullish on the day and the VIX at 21.63. Gold closed up $1.90 to $1141.30 and oil up 38 cents to $79.52 a barrel.
Wednesday's narrow range candlestick left a hanging man, this following a harami is giving us a three step reversal. The hanging man shows the session spent more time on the lows and then was bought, which if fails can trap longs and provide a weakening top. Long will be forced to sell and send the market down if that did occur. We will need a weak close to confirm this setup into Thursday's session and then see the drop come in. With the window under us still from the gap, that definitely is allowing for a toppy look with the last three days candles, but again there is no confirmation for anything yet. Failure to confirm would let those late day longs prosper and fuel a break out with even more buyers piling in.
Into Thursday we start the day with early data and because we've seen a fair amount of disappointing data we'll see if the market continues to sit on the fence with that. Monday kicked the week off with a trend day (up), Tuesday an inside narrow range day (also up), Wednesday a zigzag day (down), leaves us to look for a reversal day, which really Wednesday wasn't real far off, it just took a long road around to zigzag a lot. Leaving that as a fine line there but still points us to another day like Wednesday or reversal day with an expanded range. I don't think the range will stay as narrow as the past two days and that lets us see if the confirmation will come for a drop or will the market break to the upside. Continue to keep these resistance levels handy on each index Nas Composite 2251.84, Nas 100 1887.98 (needs to say over 1781.28 to hold here), S&P 500 1121.44-1158.76, Dow 10495.20, and Russell 2000 625.31 and onto 660.38.
The futures especially the ES rotated around the pivot all day, that will not continue if our range expands Thursday. We still have not seen the weekly pivots and that is going to require a drop, so that reversal pattern confirming would get that done. Keep looking for those levels if the market is unable to take out Monday's highs. We can sit in range all week…boring! BUT indicators are turning down off today's action and any weakness will start some sliding action for us from here.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday nothing due out.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Thursday pre market PLCE, CIT, DKS, GME, ROST, SHLD, STP, and after the bell DELL, GPS, INTU, OHB, ZUMZ. Friday pre market ANN, DHI, SLM, KIRK and nothing after the bell.
COMPX (Nasdaq Composite) closed -10.64 at 2193.14. Support: 2175.57, 2168.03, 2136.17, 2093.45. Resistance: 2236.47, 2267.66, 2294.18-2300.81.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
17 Nov, 2009
Tuesday closed the day with a narrow range edging out a small win for the bulls. Volume fell off a cliff and came in significantly lower than Monday's in this digestive range. Nas Composite had the narrowest day since 10/15, Nas 100 since 11/10, SPX since 10/12, and 10/7 for the Dow. The Dow was the only index that traded through Monday's highs, the other indexes stay inside Monday's range. The VIX closed at 22.41 and the TRIN at .73 bullish on the day. Gold closed with no change at $1139.20 and oil up 20 cents to $79.10 a barrel.
Monday left the market with a trend day higher, Tuesday a narrow range digestive day and now Wednesday will be ready to move. Generally volume picks up through option expiration week and we'll look for the increase along with a range break out of Tuesday's narrow range. Wednesday will start the day with a lot of economic data and set the days tone. Our bias is very neutral and a zigzag day along with a reversal day is still likely to come our way this week.
Futures stuck around Monday's close and the pivot throughout the day leaving us with a lot of rotation off those points. Wednesday that isn't likely to be the theme and we are more likely to test the outer bounds of the range left from Monday. Keep these resistance levels handy on each index Nas Composite 2251.84, Nas 100 1887.98 (needs to say over 1781.28 to hold here), S&P 500 1121.44-1158.76, Dow 10495.20, and Russell 2000 625.31 and onto 660.38.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Wednesday 8:30 Building Permits, 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 CPI, 8:30 Housing Starts, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday nothing due out.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Wednesday pre market BJ, SOLF and after the bell HOTT, NTAP, NTES, PETM. Thursday pre market PLCE, CIT, DKS, GME, ROST, SHLD, STP, and after the bell DELL, GPS, INTU, OHB, ZUMZ. Friday pre market ANN, DHI, SLM, KIRK and nothing after the bell.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Wednesday's pivot 1105.5, weekly pivot 1086.50. Intraday support: 1102-1100.75, 1097.25, 1093.75, 1091.25 fills 11/13 gap, 1088.75. Resistance: 1109, 1111.75, 1116, 1118.25, 1124, 1129.50
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
16 Nov, 2009
Monday left the market higher on the day with higher volume than we saw on Friday leaving the week to start with an accumulation day on the NYSE and Nasdaq. Market breadth came out of the gate strong on the gap up and continued to build throughout the day. The TRIN closed at .60 bullish on the day and the VIX 22.89 about 7% off the 10dma. Leaving us with little volatility to hang our hats on still. Gold closed up $22.30 to $1139 an ounce and oil up $2.59 to $78.94 a barrel.
The broader markets: Nas Composite, Nas 100, S&P 500 all closed at new highs for 2009, leaving only the Russell 2000 still lagging. Closing very near the highs gave the bulls a good start on the week. The market continues to climb a wall of worry, even Meredith Whitney's bearish tone and Chairman Bernanke didn't shake the wall today. The 65 minute charts are very tired and started the day with divergence early on and into the upper Bollinger band, the sideways action helped to digest that, but we are still at a line in the sand on that chart. Stochastics are trying to cross down, CCI is at 0 line, RSI at 58 and a flat MACD. Daily charts are still giving the bulls some room but a few levels to keep handy. Nas Composite 2251.84, Nas 100 1887.98 (needs to say over 1781.28 to hold here), S&P 500 1121.44-1158.76, Dow 10495.20, and Russell 2000 625.31 and onto 660.38. It is expiration week and that isn't usually a one sided week, so as we near those resistance levels look for some stiff resistance.
Monday was a tech party and a relief economic data wasn't as bad as expected. Tuesday will focus more on correcting the late divergence and the economic data to come. Which is certainly capable of moving the market. Futures did not even test the daily pivots and weekly were under that which left us still. As I stated at the end of last week we didn't see last weeks weekly numbers and that is unusual. Which makes this weeks more of a focus, the ES is down at 1086.5, NQ 1769.5 and TF 582.60. Missing the daily on a gap and go day, isn't unusual but that also means Tuesday's daily come into play for us in a bigger way usually. The ES daily is 1105.75, NQ 1802.50 and TF 598.30. An early pullback will be on watch for us and then see if the bulls can run through Monday's highs.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Tuesday 8:30 PPI, 8:30 Core PPI, 9:00 TIC Long Term Purchases, 9:15 Capacity Utilization Rate, 9:15 Industrial Production, 10:15 FOMC Member Lacker Speaks, 1:00 NAHB Housing Market Index. Wednesday 8:30 Building Permits, 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 CPI, 8:30 Housing Starts, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday nothing due out.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Tuesday pre market HD, SKS, TGT, and after the bell ADSK, LZB, CRM. Wednesday pre market BJ, SOLF and after the bell HOTT, NTAP, NTES, PETM. Thursday pre market PLCE, CIT, DKS, GME, ROST, SHLD, STP, and after the bell DELL, GPS, INTU, OHB, ZUMZ. Friday pre market ANN, DHI, SLM, KIRK and nothing after the bell.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
15 Nov, 2009
Friday left the day with modest gains and in the four day range we've sat in. Only Monday advanced the market leaving Tuesday – Friday to sit in range. The market did close green on the week and holding just off the 2009 highs upon Friday's close. Volatility dropped throughout the week with the flat VIX, closing Friday at 23.36 which was only .82 cents lower than last Friday. The TRIN closed at 1.09 bearish on the day. Gold closed up $10.20 to $1116.80 and oil down 65 cents to $76.29 a barrel.
Weekly charts the Nas Composite still sits under the upper Bollinger, the 10ma, 20ema, 50ma are all in bullish order leaving only the 200ma still overhead out of order. The CCI is just over 100 line, RSI at 64 and stochastics turning up. Nas 100 just crossed the 200ma and the 10ma crossed through it leaving the 20ema and 50ma left for the 200ma to come through for a full bullish order. RSI is at 67, CCI 137, MACD flat and slightly pointed up and the stochastics trying to turn up. The SPX and Dow look the same as the Nas 100 (NDX) other than the 200ma is still way overhead. The NDX, SPX and Dow had new closing highs for the year, leaving only the Nas Composite under the 52 week highs.
Daily charts the Dow and SPX, closed with some divergence on the RSI and CCI, the stochastics are turned down and the MACD flattened off. The Nas 100 and Composite both have the stochastics crossed down, but RSI, MACD and CCI all closed higher. On the Nasdaq indexes we have possible double tops on the 65 minute charts, the SPX and Dow are possibly leaving us with a lower high, if the market turned down here. 1100 will be key on the SPX heading into next week, much like the 10,000 mark was for the Dow. Until that resistance clears the uphill road is going to be difficult to trust and see continuation come in. Volume has also been light all month, which needs to improve into expiration week. That is generally higher volume like we see during month end.
Futures did not test the weekly pivots last week leaving the upcoming week to look at them as pivotal ledges. The market isn't likely to see them only once, rotating over and around many times is more likely to happen. The ES is 1086.5, NQ 1769.5 and TF 585.5, the market rarely misses them and when we do the following week becomes more of a key area.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Monday 8:30 Core Retail Sales, 8:30 Retail Sales, 8:30 Empire State Manufacturing Index, 10:00 Business Inventories, 12:15 Chairman Bernanke Speaks, 6:15 pm FOMC Member Kohn Speaks. Tuesday 8:30 PPI, 8:30 Core PPI, 9:00 TIC Long Term Purchases, 9:15 Capacity Utilization Rate, 9:15 Industrial Production, 10:15 FOMC Member Lacker Speaks, 1:00 NAHB Housing Market Index. Wednesday 8:30 Building Permits, 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 CPI, 8:30 Housing Starts, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday nothing due out.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Monday pre market LOW, and after the bell CHINA, SINA. Tuesday pre market HD, SKS, TGT, and after the bell ADSK, LZB, CRM. Wednesday pre market BJ, SOLF and after the bell HOTT, NTAP, NTES, PETM. Thursday pre market PLCE, CIT, DKS, GME, ROST, SHLD, STP, and after the bell DELL, GPS, INTU, OHB, ZUMZ. Friday pre market ANN, DHI, SLM, KIRK and nothing after the bell.
COMPX (Nasdaq Composite) closed +18.86 at 2167.88. Support: 2145.83, 2120.01, 2083.45, 2057.42, 2013.55 38.2%. Resistance: 2190.64 10/21 highs, 2236.47, 2294.18.
SPX (S&P 500) closed +6.24 at 1093.48. Support: 1076.34, 1058.41, 1045.64, 1012.72 38.2%. Resistance: 1105.37, 1127.19, 1158.76, 1219.07
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
12 Nov, 2009
Thursday left the market with a much needed down day to see some correction. The market gave back yesterday's gains plus a little, but it wasn't a huge urgent drop, although volume did come in heavier on the NYSE and Nasdaq today for a distribution day. The TRIN closed at 1.36 bearish and the VIX at 24.24. Gold closed down $8.10 to $1106.50 and oil down $2.37 to $76.91 a barrel.
The down day did confirm Wednesday's reversal candle with a lower close and on volume. After eight consecutive days of gains the market needed a day of rest and retracement. The stochastics came off, RSI fell, CCI turned down and the MACD is flattening off on the daily charts. The market did fill the gap from the 10th that was left open on the broader markets but still has one from the 6th open as well as 38.2% fib support below us. Nas Composite watch for 2119.22, Nas 100 1739.63, SPX 1076.34, and the Dow at 10088.70 for support. I will look for a bounce there off that 38.2% fib support on this last leg up. Friday should provide volatility for the market to close the week out. It was a very quiet week for economic data, but Friday has data throughout the morning that can be market moving.
Futures have not tested the weekly pivots and unless we fell completely apart that isn't happening. To drop to 1054 on the ES and 1705.75 on the NQ in a single day left this week is very unlikely. Which leaves us to look for next weeks to be a very pivotal in option expiration week. The last hour on futures closed with a nice hammer for support, look for that to find confirmation with the first hour closing higher or no confirmation to guide us even lower. For the ES support below Thursday's low is 1073.75 and the NQ 1760.50.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Friday 8:30 Trade Balance, 8:30 Import Prices, 9:55 UoM consumer Sentiment, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, 11:30 FOMC Member Evans Speaks. Monday 8:30 Core Retail Sales, 8:30 Retail Sales, 8:30 Empire State Manufacturing Index, 10:00 Business Inventories, 12:15 Chairman Bernanke Speaks, 6:15 pm FOMC Member Kohn Speaks. Tuesday 8:30 PPI, 8:30 Core PPI, 9:00 TIC Long Term Purchases, 9:15 Capacity Utilization Rate, 9:15 Industrial Production, 10:15 FOMC Member Lacker Speaks, 1:00 NAHB Housing Market Index. Wednesday 8:30 Building Permits, 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 CPI, 8:30 Housing Starts, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday nothing due out.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Thursday pre market BRKS, KSS, URBN, WMT and after the bell MSCC, JWN, DIS. Friday pre market A, JCP and after the bell SINA.
SPX (S&P 500) closed -11.27 at 1087.24. Support: 1076.34, 1058.41, 1045.64, 1012.72 38.2%. Resistance: 1105.37, 1127.19, 1158.76, 1219.07
INDU (Dow) closed -93.79 at 10197.47. Support: 10162.40, 10088.70, 10006.82-10000. Resistance: 10236.50, 10276.80, 10305.40, 10368.30, 10391.70, 10467
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
11 Nov, 2009
Wednesday brought a modest gain across the broader markets on light volume for the NYSE and Nasdaq. Futures which have been like the NYSE and Nasdaq, light November volume were actually in-line with what we experienced on Monday and Tuesday for the ES and NQ, TF was a bit lighter but not bad. That just shows us how light it has been though, participation is down and any excuse to see participation sitting out really is noticeable. However, that should change into the last two days of the week. The TRIN closed at .91 neutral and the VIX at 23.04 up 20cents on the day. Gold moved up to $1114.50 +12.00 and oil closed up 28 cents to $79.33 a barrel.
Today's action moved the Dow to new highs again on the year, the SPX through the October 21st highs to 1105.37 (about 4 points over prior high), the NDX up to 1793.52 (about 13 points over), leaving only the Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 under the 2009 highs on the broader markets that we follow. Only stochastics are showing some fatigue on the daily charts, they are up to 95 and starting to flatten and come together, any downside would turn them down. The RSI is up in the 60's on each index, but that is not overbought leaving additional room to move higher. The SOX moved just under the 50dma, Banks are nearing that level, Brokers sit on top of the 50dma, Internets, Hardware, Telecomm and Healthcare sit WELL over that key moving average. Today with the lift that makes 8 consecutive days of lifting. In September we saw a similar move up with day after day of lifts, but there were inside down days mixed in there. So 8 is big and unusual, it has been a year of many firsts.
After the bell Hewlett Packard (HPQ) announced earnings early and an acquisition of 3Com (COMS), HPQ traded down slightly and COMS up. HPQ did issue upside guidance for 2010, but the acquisition put pressure on the price. Applied Materials (AMAT) traded up on good earnings and guidance after the bell, futures had virtually no reaction to the news. With no reaction and fairly flat day, Thursday should provide some nice movement. With no real pullback coming in we are still looking for that to happen, but don't get married to that if we open higher, the market may see another push before any exhaustion comes in. The daily candle did leave a possible reversal doji, but that would need confirmation of a down day to come in Thursday. So we remain somewhat neutral on the market still and looking for that pullback.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 11:00 Crude Oil Inventories, 2:00 Federal Budget Balance, Friday 8:30 Trade Balance, 8:30 Import Prices, 9:55 UoM consumer Sentiment, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, 11:30 FOMC Member Evans Speaks
NQ (Nas 100 e-mini) Thursday's pivot 1782.50, weekly pivot 1705.75. Support: 1772.75, 1766.50, 1760.50, 1756, 1751.75, 1740.75, 1738, 1729.75 fills gap, 1721.25, 1704.50. Resistance: 1784.25, 1788, 1792.50, 1798.50, 1801.50, 1814.50
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Thursday pre market BRKS, KSS, URBN, WMT and after the bell MSCC, JWN, DIS. Friday pre market A, JCP and after the bell SINA.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
10 Nov, 2009
Tuesday left the markets with a very narrow range since October 14th on the COMPX, 15th on the NDX, 13th on the SPX, and the Dow since Sept 18th. The market was also split on the days outcome, the NYSE volume was lower and Nasdaq was equal to yesterdays. SPX and COMPX closed marginally lower on the day and a modest win on the NDX and Dow. The TRIN closed at .88 and the VIX at 22.84. Gold closed up $1.10 to $1102.50 and oil down .39 to $79.04 a barrel.
The morning traded through yesterday's highs, leaving the market looking for a break out, but it was the move that never came. The range was very narrow and digestive, which is expected after a big trending move that we saw on Monday. The Dow did close at new highs on 2009 again today, that small move helped to put even more distance off 10,000. I mentioned last week (Thursday) that we had an inverted head and shoulders on the 60 minute ES and NQ, the ES neckline was at 1062 area for a move up to 1095 for completion. The NQ neckline was at 1715 area for about a 72 point move into 1787 for completion. The ES was very close today, the NQ has plenty of room today. Over the weekend on comments I mentioned the possibility of an ABC pattern that started early July and with this pullback completed a C leg off the October 21st highs. A retest of the highs on the 21st will either break out or we'll see a lower high/same high to reverse off this pattern. A break would let us see 2 more legs up for a 5 wave instead of an ABC. There is no way to know which it is, until those highs are broken or failure to break out happens. Futures did not test weekly pivots again today, which are under and will take a big turn to see those this week down at ES 1054, NQ 1705.75, TF 571.10.
Into Wednesday the market is likely to be light and quiet, it is Veteran's day. Plenty of people will take that holiday and the bond market is closed. That generally makes for a quiet day, however because Monday trended higher and Tuesday was very narrow, Wednesday is likely to see a bigger range than Tuesday. Which should setup some opportunities to trade, although it is likely to be on light volume. The market's range can be bracketed and watch for a break, because volume will likely be light, the breaks aren't going to be with volume. Which is hard to trust the move, but keep the holiday in mind. Thursday and Friday will bring in participation from earnings and economic data to get things back to normal.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Wednesday US Bank Holiday (Veterans day), Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 11:00 Crude Oil Inventories, 2:00 Federal Budget Balance, Friday 8:30 Trade Balance, 8:30 Import Prices, 9:55 UoM consumer Sentiment, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, 11:30 FOMC Member Evans Speaks
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Wednesday pre market APU, M, ZOLL and after the bell AMAT, CSC, NTES, WES. Thursday pre market BRKS, KSS, URBN, WMT and after the bell MSCC, JWN, DIS. Friday pre market A, JCP and after the bell SINA.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Wednesday's pivot 1090.50, weekly pivot 1054. Intraday support: 1084, 1081.50, 1078.25, 1074, 1068.25, 1066.50 11/6 gap. Resistance: 1093, 1095 (measured move on Inv. H&S), 1098.50 10/21 swing high, 1101.25, 1107.75, 1118.25
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
9 Nov, 2009
Monday delivered a big move to the upside and closed on the highs. Volume came in heavier than Friday's on the NYSE and Nasdaq, but remember that volume on Friday was the lightest of the week. Today's volume did not outpace any other day last week. Futures volume came in lighter than Friday's. The TRIN closed very bullish at .38 and the VIX at 23.15. The TRIN hasn't seen levels that low since July 15th, it isn't real unusual to see only one day a month under .50. October had on at .41 on the 14th, September none, August had one and then back to July for one in the 30's. Showing no selling pressure on the day. Gold closed up $5.90 to $1101.60 and oil up $1.92 at $79.35 a barrel.
2009 highs are just overhead on the SPX (1101.36), NDX ( 1780.83) and COMPX (2190.64). The Dow did move through the highs by 108 points and closed up there. On the daily chart the Dow closed with 64 RSI, 97 stochastics and through the upper Bollinger band, a sign of fatigue across the board. The RSI can still move into the 70's before we get overly concerned but stochastics can't exceed 100. Which will require a pullback or sideways to digest this move today. The SPX, NDX and COMPX are not at that same level and plenty of room yet to move.
65 minute charts are a different story though, the RSI is at 64-66, stochastics at 98, CCI under 100 which was diverging ALL day long. All are also into the upper Bollinger bands, showing us exhaustion on every index and even the key sectors look the same. The divergence bothers me more than anything, but that gets over done on trend days. The breadth was so strong today there was no stopping the bulls today. With the close that strong and some good after hours news a move up to exhaust this days actions wouldn't be out of the question into Tuesday. A gap down would allow the divergence and overbought look to correct easily, then see continuation into the 2009 highs.
I mentioned last week (Thursday) that we had an inverted head and shoulders on the 60 minute ES and NQ, the ES neckline was at 1062 area for a move up to 1095 for completion. The NQ neckline was at 1715 area for about a 72 point move into 1787 for completion. The ES was very close today, the NQ has plenty of room today. Over the weekend on comments I mentioned the possibility of an ABC pattern that started early July and with this pullback completed a C leg off the October 21st highs. A retest of the highs on the 21st will either break out or we'll see a lower high/same high to reverse off this pattern. A break would let us see 2 more legs up for a 5 wave instead of an ABC. There is no way to know which it is, until those highs are broken or failure to break out happens. Futures did not test weekly pivots today, which are WAY under us now, will take a big turn to see those this week ES 1054, NQ 1705.75, TF 571.10. The daily pivots did not test today either, that isn't unusual with a gap and go day. However, that will put Tuesday's on watch to be an area of interest. Plenty to watch for into Tuesday, but the key is do not try to top pick, trading against market breadth and momentum is very dangerous.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Tuesday 10:00 TIPP Economic Optimism, Wednesday US Bank Holiday (Veterans day), Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 11:00 Crude Oil Inventories, 2:00 Federal Budget Balance, Friday 8:30 Trade Balance, 8:30 Import Prices, 9:55 UoM consumer Sentiment, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, 11:30 FOMC Member Evans Speaks
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Tuesday pre market BZH, TYC and after the bell PAAS, WTW. Wednesday pre market APU, M, ZOLL and after the bell AMAT, CSC, NTES, WES. Thursday pre market BRKS, KSS, URBN, WMT and after the bell MSCC, JWN, DIS. Friday pre market A, JCP and after the bell SINA.
NQ (Nas 100 e-mini) Tuesday's pivot 1758.25, weekly pivot 1705.75. Support: 1757.25, 1751, 1748.50, 1740.75, 1733.50, 1729.75 fills gap, 1722.75. Resistance: 1767.50, 1772.50, 1777.25, 1779.25 10/21 swing high, 1789.75
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
8 Nov, 2009
Friday closed the day green and the week closed on the highs. Which broke the two weak losing streak the broader markets had experienced. It was also the first close over the much talked about 10,000 on a weekly chart since September 28th, 2008 for the Dow. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 also had nice gains of over 3% on the week. Volume did come in lighter Friday than Thursday, but that made for decreasing volume throughout the week. The VIX closed at 24.19 on the weeks lows and the TRIN at .99. Gold closed up $6.70 to $1096 and oil down $2.27 to $77.35 a barrel.
Daily and weekly charts are still able to move higher, the only concern we have is the hit and miss volume. Seeing the volume drop off in this first week of the month was really lackluster. The Fed, earnings and Job's data was not able to spark any real fire in the participation, that is surprising. But it is allowing the market to digest and hold in range, that could fair very well for the bulls with ANY move back to the 2009 highs just overhead. The markets also moved back through the 50dma's which we spent 4-5 days under, never getting far below, just a break and sit there. I do see a possible ABC pattern that started early July and with this pullback completed a C leg off the October 21st highs. A retest of the highs on the 21st will either break out or we'll see a lower high/same high to reverse off this pattern. A break would let us see 2 more legs up for a 5 wave instead of an ABC. There is no way to know which it is, until those highs are broken or failure to break out happens.
I have no concerns really on the bulls continuing this move other than the volume. Without volume I look at this very cautiously and unless we see it come in soon. Gold and oil were moving in tandem until this past week and they were split on Thursday and Friday. The market has moved with oil and didn't hold that trend on Thursday and Friday with oil closing down and the markets and gold up. We will keep an eye on that into next week too. That split could cause some tug of war for us. The 2009 highs 2190.64 for the COMPX, 1780.83 NDX, 1101.36 SPX and 10119.47 for the Dow should be on watch this week too. Data on the Jobs numbers Friday disappointed, the market shrugged it off, we'll be very neutral into Monday to see if that mentality holds. The lackluster volume worries me on that holding into Monday so stay on your toes!
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Monday nothing due out, Tuesday 10:00 TIPP Economic Optimism, Wednesday US Bank Holiday (Veterans day), Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 11:00 Crude Oil Inventories, 2:00 Federal Budget Balance, Friday 8:30 Trade Balance, 8:30 Import Prices, 9:55 UoM consumer Sentiment, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, 11:30 FOMC Member Evans Speaks
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Monday pre market ENER, SEPR, and after the bell ERTS, MBI, PCLN. Tuesday pre market BZH, TYC and after the bell PAAS, WTW. Wednesday pre market APU, M, ZOLL and after the bell AMAT, CSC, NTES, WES. Thursday pre market BRKS, KSS, URBN, WMT and after the bell MSCC, JWN, DIS. Friday pre market A, JCP and after the bell SINA.
COMPX (Nasdaq Composite) closed +7.12 at 2112.44. Support: 2081.96, 2059.93, 2044.25, 2013.55 38.2%, 1958.84, 1904.14. Resistance: 2127.36, 2155.39, 2190.64 10/21 highs.
SPX (S&P 500) closed +2.67 at 1069.30. Support: 1055.40, 1045.46, 1038.39, 1012.72 38.2%, 985.34, 957.95. Resistance: 1073.86, 1085.96, 1101.36
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
5 Nov, 2009
Thursday ended the day for the broader markets on the highs and with a big advance on the day. Volume came in under Wednesday's giving the market another winning day on lighter volume. The TRIN closed at .81, which came off bearish levels all day to close bullish. The VIX closed at 25.43, for the fourth consecutive day of lower closes. Gold closed up $2.20 to $1089.50 and oil down 74 cents to $79.66 a barrel.
Thursday reacted positively from the early data leaving the bulls in charge throughout the day and closing the market on the highs. Very bullish close, but without the volume to back it up, it is suspect. The market was seeing some sideline action with the lack of participation, but enough to know the majority are expected good news on the jobs data. The Jobs data is out Friday morning and next to anything the Fed can say, this is the biggest piece of data we get. Right now it is thought to be improving, if that isn't the case the market will sink quickly. If the data comes in healthy and gives the market what it expects we should see a multiday rally.
The ES break of 1053.75 and the NQ 1669.50 cleared the way for futures to move higher. The next big level on the ES is at 1071 and NQ at 1730. Good news is likely to gap us over those levels and onto 1083 and 1751.75 levels. Data comes in poorly a move back under 1049.5 on the ES and 1684.5 on the NQ is likely to come very quickly. The ES and NQ 60 minute do have nice looking inverted head and shoulders, that leaves the bulls in charge. The ES measured move would be about 33 points up to 1095 and the NQ 72 points to 1794 to complete the patterns.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Friday 8:30 Non Farm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings, 9:45 FOMC Member Evans speaks, 10:00 Wholesale inventories, 3:00 Consumer Credit, 3:00 FOMC Member Duke Speaks. Monday nothing due out, Tuesday 10:00 TIPP Economic Optimism, Wednesday US Bank Holiday (Veterans day), Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 11:00 Crude Oil Inventories, 2:00 Federal Budget Balance, Friday 8:30 Trade Balance, 8:30 Import Prices, 9:55 UoM consumer Sentiment, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, 11:30 FOMC Member Evans Speaks
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Friday pre market LPNT, SEP, SUP and after the bell AES.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Friday's pivot 1059, weekly pivot 1050. Intraday support: 1055.50, 1049.50, 1045, 1040.50, 1037, 1034-1032.75, 1026, 1020, 1017.25-1016.50, 1006, 1003.50. Resistance: 1064 10/29 swing high, 1070.75, 1077.25, 1083, 1087, 1093, 1098.50
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
4 Nov, 2009
Wednesday closed the day with the Nas Composite red, but the Nas 100, S&P 500 and Dow green, very modest red and green on the day. Not a big mover again today! Volume did increase on the Nasdaq and futures over Tuesday's action but the NYSE fell just under Tuesday's. The TRIN increased late day to close at 1.38 bearish on the day. The VIX closed at 27.72 down 1.09. Gold closed up $2.10 to $1087 and oil up 76 cents to $80.36 a barrel.
The bulls had an early advantage by jumping out ahead on a gap and go move in the first half hour. The bulls never relinquished control until after the Fed announcement. Even that was a slow motion but took the market near the lows by days end. Charts are still signaling some weakness and not letting the bulls run to far today. Cisco (CSCO) reported after the bell and the stock traded up about 63 cents. 65 minute charts are still signaling downside, while the daily is a little more neutral and undecided. The Fed didn't really give us that spark we were looking for to excite the market, volatility wasn't any larger than yesterday's narrow range day. Which is a let down for us, but the remainder of the week has a lot of economic data to get things moving.
Wednesday we tested the weekly 1700 on the NQ and ES 1050 pivots. That move marked the top for the NQ, ES did trade over and hung in that channel around 1050 for most of the day. Leading to a very large value area to rotate around into Thursday. The NQ and ES still have gaps open, the TF did fill. Further downside into Thursday is still the tone to watch for. The pre market data could set a different tone, but until we see volume supporting the upside that will be suspect for us. The ES over 1053.75 would alter that bearish tone, the NQ over 1699.5. The ES breaks 1032.75 and the NQ 1660.75 our downside is likely to accelerate.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 NonFarm Productivity, 8:30 Prelim Unit Labor Costs, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, Friday 8:30 Non Farm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings, 9:45 FOMC Member Evans speaks, 10:00 Wholesale inventories, 3:00 Consumer Credit, 3:00 FOMC Member Duke Speaks
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Thursday pre market CAH, CI, CDE, CVS, FTO, IMAX, ISIS, KG, MGM, NDAQ, NGS, OMG, SLE, SMG, WEN, WWE and after the bell ATVI, ATML, NILE, CHINA, CROX, HANS, IGT, JDSU, NVDA, SMTC, SBUX, JAVA, SUN. Friday pre market LPNT, SEP, SUP and after the bell AES.
NQ (Nas 100 e-mini) Thursday's pivot 1687.75, weekly pivot 1700. Support: 1680.50, 1674.75, 1669, 1664.50, 1660.75, 1656, 1650.25, 1646.50-1644.25, 1638.75, 1632.75. Resistance: 1689, 1694.75, 1699.50, 1704.50, 1711.75-1714.75
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
3 Nov, 2009
Tuesday left the market with an inside day, narrowest in 12 days on the broader markets. A modest win for the COMPX, NDX and SPX with a modest loss for the Dow. Volume came in lighter than Monday's, which is in-line with the digestive narrow range days activities. The TRIN closed at .73 bullish on the day and the VIX at 28.81, also a narrow inside range day. Gold closed up $31.20 to $1085.20 and oil up $1.50 to $79.63 a barrel.
Wednesday will bring the market some information from the Fed, but the day will start with Economic data in the pre market. Fed Chairman Bernanke will be the key to the days tone. I expect the bulls to try to hold ground in the morning and get us to 2:15 for his words of wisdom. The daily charts are still riding the lower Bollinger and sitting over key supports (2013.55 COMPX, 1633.39 NDX, 1012.72 SPX, and Dow 9343.14). The Dow sits on the 50dma, but the COMPX, NDX and SPX all fell under last week and still sit just under those key moving averages. After the narrow range day the 10dma and 20dema still continue to come down, which should be watched for a cross of the two. If the longer term ma's start to cross the shorter that helps the bears gain control. We still set very neutral and we'll continue that tone until we get the Fed's information. It won't take the market long to have a reaction and we'll spend the afternoon busy. The market will then look forward into Friday for the Job's numbers and start pricing in what we can expect out of that data.
A break of Tuesday's range will help to find direction and those narrow range days let the market rest and digest the prior move. So an easy bracket of the range lets the market setup trades for us. That doesn't necessarily mean the market will have continuation, but it is a start.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Wednesday 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts, 8:15 ADP Non Farm Employment Change, 10:00 ISM Non Manufacturing PMI, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 2:15 FOMC Statement and Fed Fund Rate, Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 NonFarm Productivity, 8:30 Prelim Unit Labor Costs, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, Friday 8:30 Non Farm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings, 9:45 FOMC Member Evans speaks, 10:00 Wholesale inventories, 3:00 Consumer Credit, 3:00 FOMC Member Duke Speaks
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Wednesday pre market AGU, ADP, DVN, GRMN, MMC, MSO, PHM, TOT, XTO and after the bell NDN, CECO, CSCO, ESLR, GG, JCOM, ONNN, PRU, QCOM, THQI, WFMI. Thursday pre market CAH, CI, CDE, CVS, FTO, IMAX, ISIS, KG, MGM, NDAQ, NGS, OMG, SLE, SMG, WEN, WWE and after the bell ATVI, ATML, NILE, CHINA, CROX, HANS, IGT, JDSU, NVDA, SMTC, SBUX, JAVA, SUN. Friday pre market LPNT, SEP, SUP and after the bell AES.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
2 Nov, 2009
Monday closed the day modestly green and volume was slightly lighter than Friday's. It was still a healthy day of participation, it just didn't outpace Fridays huge levels. The TRIN closed at .98 neutral and the VIX at 29.78. Gold closed up $13.90 to $1054.30 and oil up $1.09 to $78.09. After Friday's big move down and the push over 30 on the VIX today ended digestive.
With Monday's mid range close the market left us neutral. Just a resting day, despite the fact that we did take out Friday's (last weeks) low. However, we closed back within Friday's range and held the market in a narrow range to digest last weeks month end action. The daily charts are riding the lower Bollinger and sitting over key supports still (2013.55 COMPX, 1633.39 NDX, 1012.72 SPX, and Dow 9343.14). The Dow sits on the 50dma, but the COMPX, NDX and SPX all fell under last week and still sit just under those key moving averages. The 10dma and 20dema still continue to come down, which should be watched for a cross of the two. If the longer term ma's start to cross the shorter that helps the bears gain control.
Into Tuesday the market will likely keep a tone similar to what we saw today. There is no reason for the first half of the week to get in a hurry ahead of the Fed and bigger economic data to come in Wednesday – Friday. An early lift and then watch Monday's high and onto Friday's high to test for key levels. Below is will be the same supports outlined above for a test. It wouldn't take much for the market to push either direction from here with the neutral day we just put in. Futures did not test the weekly pivots at 1050 ES, 1700 NQ and 576.50 on the TF, should be watched for still into Tuesday.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Tuesday 10:00 Factory Orders, Vehicle Sales all day. Wednesday 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts, 8:15 ADP Non Farm Employment Change, 10:00 ISM Non Manufacturing PMI, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 2:15 FOMC Statement and Fed Fund Rate, Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 NonFarm Productivity, 8:30 Prelim Unit Labor Costs, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, Friday 8:30 Non Farm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings, 9:45 FOMC Member Evans speaks, 10:00 Wholesale inventories, 3:00 Consumer Credit, 3:00 FOMC Member Duke Speaks
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Tuesday ABC, ADM, CAM, BJS, ICE, MRO, MA, JOE, THC, TEVA, and after the bell ONXX, TIE, TRLG. Wednesday pre market AGU, ADP, DVN, GRMN, MMC, MSO, PHM, TOT, XTO and after the bell NDN, CECO, CSCO, ESLR, GG, JCOM, ONNN, PRU, QCOM, THQI, WFMI. Thursday pre market CAH, CI, CDE, CVS, FTO, IMAX, ISIS, KG, MGM, NDAQ, NGS, OMG, SLE, SMG, WEN, WWE and after the bell ATVI, ATML, NILE, CHINA, CROX, HANS, IGT, JDSU, NVDA, SMTC, SBUX, JAVA, SUN. Friday pre market LPNT, SEP, SUP and after the bell AES.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Tuesday's pivot 1038.25, weekly pivot 1050. Intraday support: 1039, 1032.75, 1028.25, 1026-1025, 1020, 1016.50-1015.50-1015, 1003.50. Resistance: 1040.50, 1045, 1049.50, 1053.75, 1062.25-1064, 1071
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
1 Nov, 2009
Friday delivered a blow to the week and closed the day, week and month red across the broader markets (the Dow did hold green on the month by 45 cents). The volume came in heavy for a distribution day on the NYSE and Nasdaq. Futures left the heaviest day of the December contract so far this quarter. Plenty of push on this drop after the low volume lift on Thursday. The TRIN was as high as 3.83, but closed at 2.58 very bearish. The VIX lifted to levels we haven't seen since July 8th, closing at 30.69. Gold closed down $6.60 at $1040.50 and oil down $2.79 to $77.08 a barrel.
The Nas Composite, Nas 100 and S&P 500 are right at the October lows, closing lower confirms a break of the higher highs and higher lows trend the market has had since July. The weekly chart turned the CCI down, RSI falling, stochastics crossed down and the MACD is flat on each index. Monthly also turned the each indicator down slightly, but the monthly candle closed very bearish. The next leg down is 2013.55 COMPX, 1633.39 NDX, 1012.72 SPX, and Dow 9343.14 for support to look for into an exhaustive move down. After that big drop on Friday we will be oversold with any further move early on Monday. Thursday was non stop lift with no pullbacks and Friday was exactly the same in the opposite direction. A market that doesn't retrace intraday is hard on traders, but we remain patient and pick our spots that make sense to make for profitable days.
Into next week we'll have slower earnings and get into more second tier companies. The star of the week will be the Federal Reserve on Wednesday with some possible insight into what they are planning near term for rates and Fed actions. Monday could give us that end of month hang over and be very digestive. The economic data will be watched carefully this week and comes in heavy every day. That is very likely to set the tone each day and keep the volatility that the market saw last week. Some retracement early on Monday would set us up for a narrow range to be digestive. A move lower early on, would let us find those supports outlined above quickly and look for a bounce there.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Monday 10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI, 10:00 Pending Home Sales, 10:00 Construction Spending 10:00 ISM Manufacturing Prices. Tuesday 10:00 Factory Orders, Vehicle Sales all day. Wednesday 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts, 8:15 ADP Non Farm Employment Change, 10:00 ISM Non Manufacturing PMI, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 2:15 FOMC Statement and Fed Fund Rate, Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 NonFarm Productivity, 8:30 Prelim Unit Labor Costs, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, Friday 8:30 Non Farm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings, 9:45 FOMC Member Evans speaks, 10:00 Wholesale inventories, 3:00 Consumer Credit, 3:00 FOMC Member Duke Speaks
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Monday pre market CLX, F, OSG, and after the bell CHK, DLLR. Tuesday ABC, ADM, CAM, BJS, ICE, MRO, MA, JOE, THC, TEVA, and after the bell ONXX, TIE, TRLG. Wednesday pre market AGU, ADP, DVN, GRMN, MMC, MSO, PHM, TOT, XTO and after the bell NDN, CECO, CSCO, ESLR, GG, JCOM, ONNN, PRU, QCOM, THQI, WFMI. Thursday pre market CAH, CI, CDE, CVS, FTO, IMAX, ISIS, KG, MGM, NDAQ, NGS, OMG, SLE, SMG, WEN, WWE and after the bell ATVI, ATML, NILE, CHINA, CROX, HANS, IGT, JDSU, NVDA, SMTC, SBUX, JAVA, SUN. Friday pre market LPNT, SEP, SUP and after the bell AES.
NDX (Nasdaq 100) closed -44.14 at 1667.13. Support: 1633.39, 1587.85, 1542.31. Resistance: 1708.59, 1736.18, 1755.82, 1788.61
SPX (S&P 500) closed -29.92 at 1036.19. Support: 1012.72 38.2%, 985.34, 957.95. Resistance: 1054.05-1059.35, 1075.39, 1086.81, 1101.36
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
Oct 29, 2009
Thursday moved the market higher on lighter volume, regaining ground and retracing losses on light volume is not bullish. The market will need volume to see this continue into Friday. The A/D and U/D closed at the highs on the day, opposite of yesterday's lows. The TRIN closed at .58, bullish tone on the day. The VIX closed at 24.76, back on yesterday's lows. Gold closed the day up $16.60 to $1047.10 and oil up $2.43 to $79.89 a barrel.
Wednesday closed with that low TRIN to throw off the markets tone, today followed that with a nice bounce. Although the day was an inside day for the Nasdaq, it was still a decent lift. The Dow and SPX were not inside days, both closed over yesterdays high. All the indexes that fell under the 50dma yesterday, were back over those key moving averages today. Plenty to think about heading into Friday. The good GDP data put a nice spark in the market but missing heavy participation. Without volume we can't expect to see continuation. Looming uncertainty into next weeks Fed meeting is likely to hold the market in this area.
Holding over the 50dma will keep the bullish tone, but a lagging Nasdaq and lacking volume need to come along. Early strength will be respected, but the Nasdaq has to take hold into Friday early on to see this move further to the upside. I'm pretty neutral for the close of the month/week. An end of month tug of war with volume, but no expansion in range would not surprise us. The last three months the days range was very small, I expect Friday to follow that trend. Just getting the month to hold over the 50dma and now that the Nas 100 and Nas Composite sit just modestly red on the month right now, that could change with a small up day. SPX and DOW sit just on the green side of the line, that won't hold with any pressure. Leaving Friday to battle the red/green line in the sand for the month. Data will set the days tone and help us to move early on.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Friday 8:30 Core PCE Price Index, 8:30 Employment Cost Index, 8:30 Personal Spending, 8:30 Personal Income, 9:45 Chicago PMI, 9:55 Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Revised UoM Inflation Expectations. Monday 10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI, 10:00 Pending Home Sales, 10:00 Construction Spending 10:00 ISM Manufacturing Prices. Tuesday 10:00 Factory Orders, Vehicle Sales all day. Wednesday 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts, 8:15 ADP Non Farm Employment Change, 10:00 ISM Non Manufacturing PMI, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 2:15 FOMC Statement and Fed Fund Rate, Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 NonFarm Productivity, 8:30 Prelim Unit Labor Costs, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, Friday 8:30 Non Farm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings, 9:45 FOMC Member Evans speaks, 10:00 Wholesale inventories, 3:00 Consumer Credit, 3:00 FOMC Member Duke Speaks
NDX (Nasdaq 100) closed +29.21 at 1711.27. Support: 1694.79 50dma, 1656.57 Oct low, 1633.39, 1587.85. Resistance: 1718.12, 1742.06, 1759.11
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Friday pre market CVX, CVH, D, DUK, NYX, SNE, UPL, WY, YRCW and after the bell SHPGY. Monday pre market CLX, F, OSG, and after the bell CHK, DLLR. Tuesday ABC, ADM, CAM, BJS, ICE, MRO, MA, JOE, THC, TEVA, and after the bell ONXX, TIE, TRLG. Wednesday pre market AGU, ADP, DVN, GRMN, MMC, MSO, PHM, TOT, XTO and after the bell NDN, CECO, CSCO, ESLR, GG, JCOM, ONNN, PRU, QCOM, THQI, WFMI. Thursday pre market CAH, CI, CDE, CVS, FTO, IMAX, ISIS, KG, MGM, NDAQ, NGS, OMG, SLE, SMG, WEN, WWE and after the bell ATVI, ATML, NILE, CHINA, CROX, HANS, IGT, JDSU, NVDA, SMTC, SBUX, JAVA, SUN. Friday pre market LPNT, SEP, SUP and after the bell AES.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
Oct 28, 2009
Wednesday delivered a big drop across the broader markets on heavy volume for a distribution day. The COMPX, NDX and SPX all dropped the 50dma and closed on the lows. The Dow is still 65 points over the 50dma. The A/D and U/D lines closed on the lows, the TRIN closed at .97. Which is neutral and because the TRIN measures underlying supply and demand in the market we have to pay attention to that. That can mean the selling volume is higher, but the declining shares are being bought or that the selling volume in the dropping shares is declining as the day progresses to take off the pressure. The VIX closed at 27.93 back in the October 5th range just off the October high at 29.56. Gold closed down $4.70 at $1030.70 and oil down $2.25 at $77.44 a barrel.
Data was a little disappointing today and Thursday brings even bigger pieces of information in the ever changing economy. Again Thursday we will see data set the days tone and the break of those 50dma's will be watched for confirmation or a snap back. Unless Thursday closes another day lower that break is not confirmed. Key sectors: Banks, Brokers and Semi's all dropped the October lows today. The SOX and Banks (BKX) breaking that swing low confirms a double top, leaving us to look for confirmation into Thursday. A lower close, like the indexes 50dma would leave us looking for a bigger drop.
Thursday the market could use some retracement after four consecutive down days. The 65 minute index charts and daily are short term oversold. That should bring in a bounce in that first hour. At that time we'll bracket that range and look for a break of it on either side for the days direction. A digestive day would not hurt the market to rest and digest this move down. Key levels to watch for will be the 50dma's, if we move back over them the bounce should take hold. Below us the SPX at 1012.72, the Dow 9697.38 50dma and 9430.08 10/2 swing low, COMPX 2013.55 and the NDX 1633.39.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Thursday 8:30 Advance GDP, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Advance GDP Price, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, Friday 8:30 Core PCE Price Index, 8:30 Employment Cost Index, 8:30 Personal Spending, 8:30 Personal Income, 9:45 Chicago PMI, 9:55 Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Revised UoM Inflation Expectations.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Thursday pre market AGN, AEP, BCRX, CME, COCO, XOM, K, MGM, MOT, MYL, NEM, ODP, ZEUS, PDE, PG, S, TSM, ZLC and after the bell ADPT, ACS, ATML, DLLR, ERES, KLAC, MXIM, MFE, MET, MSTR, RNWK, SPF, TSRA, USTR, VAR, VSEA, WYNN. Friday pre market CVX, CVH, D, DUK, NYX, SNE, UPL, WY, YRCW and after the bell SHPGY.
COMPX (Nasdaq Composite) closed -56.48 at 2059.61. Support: 2040.73 Oct. lows, 2013.55 38.2%, 1958.84. Resistance: 2083.84, 2089.03 50dma, 2100.17, 2108.30, 2124.02, 2139.74.
SPX (S&P 500) closed -20.78 at 1042.63. Support: 1037.37, 1019.95 Oct lows, 1012.72, 98.34. Resistance: 1050.28 50dma-1053.76, 1064.79, 1078.76, 1088.70, 1092.64, 1101.36 2009 highs
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
Oct 27, 2009
Tuesday split the day across the broader markets. The Nas 100, Nas Composite along with the S&P 500 closed red, the Dow was green. NYSE volume was equal to Mondays, the Nasdaq was higher than Monday, futures were all higher on the day. The TRIN closed at 1.18 still in the bears territory and the VIX at 24.83. Gold closed down $8.00 to $1034.80 an ounce and oil up 76 cents to $79.44 a barrel.
IBM gave the Dow a lift that allowed it to close green on the day while the rest of the market red near the lows. The month has had 19 trading days, eight of those have been down with 11 up. The last three have been down and pulled us back to October 8th levels. The market is pulling closer to the 50dma as we've lost ground over the last three days. The stochastics are down to 32-20, -129 to -55 CCI, RSI 52-47 and MACD moved down for the each index. Leaving the market negative on each index for the first time since the 6th for each index on October.
The NQ dropped the 1731 I talked about last night and delivered a down day. I will be looking for a move into 1701 on the NQ and 1047 for the ES from here. The 50dma on the SPX (1049.22), NDX (1690.59), COMPX (2086.95) and Dow (9686.49) should be on watch now for each index. After each multi-day drop the market has seen dip buyers step in. That will be no exception for us this time and now the market will look to those key supports and economic data to wrap the week up. Early data will set the tone for our day, watch for the key supports to turn the market up. A break of Tuesday's highs, we should respect the upside, but until then my bias is to the downside onto the supports above.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Wednesday 8:30 Core Durable Goods Orders, 8:30 Durable Goods Orders, 10:00 New Home Sales, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, Thursday 8:30 Advance GDP, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Advance GDP Price, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, Friday 8:30 Core PCE Price Index, 8:30 Employment Cost Index, 8:30 Personal Spending, 8:30 Personal Income, 9:45 Chicago PMI, 9:55 Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Revised UoM Inflation Expectations.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Wednesday pre market ASH, COP, GD, HES, IP, LVLT, MSO, Q, SAP, SEPR, WLP, and after the bell AEM, AKAM, CTX, XRAY, ESRX, FSLR, JDSU, LSI, OII, PACR, RYL, VARI, XL. Thursday pre market AGN, AEP, BCRX, CME, COCO, XOM, K, MGM, MOT, MYL, NEM, ODP, ZEUS, PDE, PG, S, TSM, ZLC and after the bell ADPT, ACS, ATML, DLLR, ERES, KLAC, MXIM, MFE, MET, MSTR, RNWK, SPF, TSRA, USTR, VAR, VSEA, WYNN. Friday pre market CVX, CVH, D, DUK, NYX, SNE, UPL, WY, YRCW and after the bell SHPGY.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Wednesday's pivot 1062.25, weekly pivot 1082. Intraday support: 1056.75, 1054 fills gap 10/7, 1047, 1042.75, 1039.50, 1037 fills 10/5 gap. Resistance: 1064.75, 1069.25-1070.75, 1075, 1079.25, 1082.50, 1085.5, 1088.50-1090.75 fills gap, 1093 swing high, 1098.50, 1101.25.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
Oct 26, 2009
Monday started the week with a modest loss on mixed volume. The NYSE was higher than Friday and the Nasdaq was lighter. Market breadth (A/D and U/D) closed on the lows and the TRIN closed at 2.20 for the second straight day over 2. The VIX closed at 24.31, just under the 50dma at 24.59. Gold closed down $13.20 to $1043.20 and oil down $1.87 to $78.63 a barrel.
Nas Composite dropped the 10dma, CCI is at 0 line support, stochastics are pointed down still, RSI down to 54 and MACD is slightly pointed down, but isn't opening up. Nas 100 also dropped the 10dma and sits just over the 20dema, CCI is at 58, Stochastics dropping, MACD lines came together and crossed and the RSI is down to 58. Sitting just over last weeks 1732.02 lows and just over 38.2% Fibonacci retracement support. S&P 500 fell through last weeks low and closed under the 10dma and 20dema, the CCI closed at -38, MACD pointed down, RSI at 50 and stochastics pointed down at 33. Giving up almost half of Octobers gains. The Dow is at 38.2% retracement of the October gains dropping last weeks lows. Stochastics are pointed down, CCI is at -8, MACD is pointed down and RSI at 61.
With the fall today only the Nasdaq 100 and Composite held last weeks low and 38.2%. The S&P 500 giving up 50% of October gains off the weakness in financials accelerating the drop. The Dow still holds over 38.2% with the Nasdaq, leaves us to look to the Nasdaq for leadership. ANY sign of weakness and this maybe a rocky week for the bulls, one concern coming into Tuesday will be the drop in BIDU. Internets are important to the markets and BIDU fell from a close of $423 to $376 in afterhours trading. UGLY fall! That will pressure the Nasdaq and likely lead to a weak opening on the markets. With the TRIN over 2 and a weak opening we can look for a bounce early on in the market. Watch for 1731 support, break there we can look for a much larger drop.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Tuesday 4:30 am Treasury Sec Geithner Speaks, 10:00 Consumer Confidence, 10:00 Richmond Manufacturing Index, Wednesday 8:30 Core Durable Goods Orders, 8:30 Durable Goods Orders, 10:00 New Home Sales, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, Thursday 8:30 Advance GDP, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Advance GDP Price, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, Friday 8:30 Core PCE Price Index, 8:30 Employment Cost Index, 8:30 Personal Spending, 8:30 Personal Income, 9:45 Chicago PMI, 9:55 Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Revised UoM Inflation Expectations.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Tuesday pre market AKS, BJS, BP, IACI, LLL, OSIS, PCAR, SCHN, TUES, X, UA, VLO, V, and after the bell ADVS, APOL, BBOX, CEPH, DWA, ETFC, MEE, NSC, PNRA, PDLI, SUNH, TZOO, ULTI. Wednesday pre market ASH, COP, GD, HES, IP, LVLT, MSO, Q, SAP, SEPR, WLP, and after the bell AEM, AKAM, CTX, XRAY, ESRX, FSLR, JDSU, LSI, OII, PACR, RYL, VARI, XL. Thursday pre market AGN, AEP, BCRX, CME, COCO, XOM, K, MGM, MOT, MYL, NEM, ODP, ZEUS, PDE, PG, S, TSM, ZLC and after the bell ADPT, ACS, ATML, DLLR, ERES, KLAC, MXIM, MFE, MET, MSTR, RNWK, SPF, TSRA, USTR, VAR, VSEA, WYNN. Friday pre market CVX, CVH, D, DUK, NYX, SNE, UPL, WY, YRCW and after the bell SHPGY.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
Oct 25, 2009
Friday closed the day red across the broader markets on mixed volume. The NYSE was lighter volume while the Nasdaq was heavier than Thursday's, most of that difference came from MSFT and AMZN. Futures all finished the day on heavier volume, which is a distribution day. The week closed with the Nas Composite, S&P 500 and Dow all slightly lower than the prior week and the Nas 100 slightly higher. The week did put in new highs for the year, but wasn't able to hold those gains to close up there. The TRIN accelerated into the bell from 1.69 to 2.04 for a very bearish close and the VIX closed at 22.27 on the 10dma. Gold closed down $2.50 to $1056.10 and oil down 60 cents to $80.50 a barrel.
Eight days in range is just eight days too many for me. However, that is the card the market is dealing us and we are just playing checkers up here near the highs getting tighter and consolidating the gains. The market had plenty of opportunity to rally this week on good earnings, but the job just didn't get done. The bears aren't stepping in with a heavy hand either though. Daily charts are turned down on the broader markets indicators, only the MACD is left flat with the stochastics, CCI and RSI all headed down. The upper Bollinger band is just overhead and each index sits on the 10dma. The 20dema is nearing with all this congestion we'll have the moving averages converging to provide support, but also keep in mind that also lets the smaller moving average cross through the longer ones on any down days very easily. For now each index still has the moving averages in bullish order though.
Next week earnings continue to roll out and the big caps that are widely held will start to slow down after this week. Economic data will be heavier than the prior week was and it is the end of October. We'll start to see some month end settling by Wednesday flow in and pick up the pace on participation. My bias on the opening is for a move lower to test the bottom of the range, last weeks lows. If we don't hold that level another leg down is very likely to come in. The upside the market has to get through last weeks highs and continue to run. That isn't an easy task with the lack of momentum we had this week. Every attempt to move was snapped back with sellers and on mixed volume all week. That leaves us with some downside bias until those highs are broken and we see confirmation of those breaks.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Monday nothing due out, Tuesday 4:30 am Treasury Sec Geithner Speaks, 10:00 Consumer Confidence, 10:00 Richmond Manufacturing Index, Wednesday 8:30 Core Durable Goods Orders, 8:30 Durable Goods Orders, 10:00 New Home Sales, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, Thursday 8:30 Advance GDP, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Advance GDP Price, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, Friday 8:30 Core PCE Price Index, 8:30 Employment Cost Index, 8:30 Personal Spending, 8:30 Personal Income, 9:45 Chicago PMI, 9:55 Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Revised UoM Inflation Expectations.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Monday pre market GLW, SOHU, VZ and after the bell BIDU, CF, CHK, MAS, MTH, WINN, ZRAN. Tuesday pre market AKS, BJS, BP, IACI, LLL, OSIS, PCAR, SCHN, TUES, X, UA, VLO, V, and after the bell ADVS, APOL, BBOX, CEPH, DWA, ETFC, MEE, NSC, PNRA, PDLI, SUNH, TZOO, ULTI. Wednesday pre market ASH, COP, GD, HES, IP, LVLT, MSO, Q, SAP, SEPR, WLP, and after the bell AEM, AKAM, CTX, XRAY, ESRX, FSLR, JDSU, LSI, OII, PACR, RYL, VARI, XL. Thursday pre market AGN, AEP, BCRX, CME, COCO, XOM, K, MGM, MOT, MYL, NEM, ODP, ZEUS, PDE, PG, S, TSM, ZLC and after the bell ADPT, ACS, ATML, DLLR, ERES, KLAC, MXIM, MFE, MET, MSTR, RNWK, SPF, TSRA, USTR, VAR, VSEA, WYNN. Friday pre market CVX, CVH, D, DUK, NYX, SNE, UPL, WY, YRCW and after the bell SHPGY.
NDX (Nasdaq 100) closed -9.52 at 1753.63. Support: 1750.28, 1733.36 38.2%, 1704.04, 1684.74 50dma. Resistance: 1772, 1788.61, 1801.24
SPX (S&P 500) closed -13.31 at 1079.60. Support: 1070.26 38.2%, 1060.66, 1046.29 50dma. Resistance: 1095.37, 1127.19, 1158.76, 1177.55
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
Oct 22, 2009
Thursday closed the day green, erasing most of yesterdays drop. The volume was lighter then Wednesdays on the NYSE, Nasdaq, and futures (except the NQ was slightly higher). The TRIN closed bullish at .72 and the VIX at 20.69. A/D and U/D closed near the highs on the day, was a big turn off the lows to have this green close. Gold fell $6.30 to $1058.20 and oil down 17 cents to $81.20 a barrel.
Into Friday the economic data along with Fed Chairman Bernanke will be in the mix of earnings. Earnings were pretty upbeat all week and now we'll hear from widely held Microsoft as the last big stock of the week. The strong close kept the market waiting for a rush at the bell, but that didn't come. It was a close on the highs and certainly within striking distance of the Wednesday highs. Wednesday had left a shooting star that we were waiting for confirmation of to sell, but that didn't happen, the higher close made that invalid as a reversal signal. The RSI turned up on the daily charts on each index, but the CCI moved lower on the day despite the days higher close for some divergence. Stochastics are still open to the downside and the MACD is very flat, with no clear direction or signals there. The new highs for the year were put on this week and just overhead, any end of week rally would leave this market in a very bullish place. The Dow teetering around 10,000, SPX 1100, COMPX 2200 and 1800 on the NDX would set the tone going into month end next week to clear each of those psychological areas. They all happen to be within reach now and until we see continuation this range is our playground.
Into Friday a weak close, if it is off bad data or earnings, may sell us back to the lows on the week. Any good news is likely to help hold the weeks gains and keep the market in the upper end of the weeks range. I don't think Microsoft will disappoint, but the Fed Chairman could say ANYTHING to make the market move. So we'll have to be tuned in for him early.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Friday 8:30 Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks, 10:00 Existing Home Sales, 11:30 FOMC Member Kohn speaks. Monday nothing due out, Tuesday 4:30 am Treasury Sec Geithner Speaks, 10:00 Consumer Confidence, 10:00 Richmond Manufacturing Index, Wednesday 8:30 Core Durable Goods Orders, 8:30 Durable Goods Orders, 10:00 New Home Sales, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, Thursday 8:30 Advance GDP, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Advance GDP Price, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, Friday 8:30 Core PCE Price Index, 8:30 Employment Cost Index, 8:30 Personal Spending, 8:30 Personal Income, 9:45 Chicago PMI, 9:55 Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Revised UoM Inflation Expectations.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Friday pre market HON, IR, MSFT, SLB, WHR, and nothing after the bell. Monday pre market GLW, SOHU, VZ and after the bell BIDU, CF, CHK, MAS, MTH, WINN, ZRAN. Tuesday pre market AKS, BJS, BP, IACI, LLL, OSIS, PCAR, SCHN, TUES, X, UA, VLO, V, and after the bell ADVS, APOL, BBOX, CEPH, DWA, ETFC, MEE, NSC, PNRA, PDLI, SUNH, TZOO, ULTI. Wednesday pre market ASH, COP, GD, HES, IP, LVLT, MSO, Q, SAP, SEPR, WLP, and after the bell AEM, AKAM, CTX, XRAY, ESRX, FSLR, JDSU, LSI, OII, PACR, RYL, VARI, XL. Thursday pre market AGN, AEP, BCRX, CME, COCO, XOM, K, MGM, MOT, MYL, NEM, ODP, ZEUS, PDE, PG, S, TSM, ZLC and after the bell ADPT, ACS, ATML, DLLR, ERES, KLAC, MXIM, MFE, MET, MSTR, RNWK, SPF, TSRA, USTR, VAR, VSEA, WYNN. Friday pre market CVX, CVH, D, DUK, NYX, SNE, UPL, WY, YRCW and after the bell SHPGY.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Friday's pivot 1084.50, weekly pivot 1080.25. Intraday support: 1083.75, 1078.50, 1075, 1070.25, 1068.75 fills gap, 1066.50 38.2%, 1063, 1056.75, 1053.50 fills gap 10/7, 1047, 1042.50. Resistance: 1092.50, 1095.75, 1098.50, 1101.25, 1107.75, 1113.25, 1116.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
Oct 21, 2009
Wednesday took back all the weeks gains after making new 2009 highs. Big rejection of that move up and the selling accelerated as some downgrades on banks rolled out late day. The volume also increased on the day for another distribution day on the NYSE and Nasdaq. The VIX hit new lows on the year again today but closed at 22.22, the new low is 20.10. That to me sparked some of that pullback too. As I noted throughout the week we had moved to far off the 10dma and needed that snap back to occur. The TRIN closed at 1.34 bearish again today. Gold closed up $5.50 at $1064.10 and oil up $2.23 at $81.35 on the day.
The day left shooting stars on the broader markets, that can be a reversal candle, but needs confirmation with another down day. The stochastics, CCI, RSI all turned down on the daily charts and the MACD has closed up and could cross down with another day of selling. Thursday the market has one of the biggest days of earnings we'll have all month. Not only will there be “tons” of reports, there are many big caps that can impact the market. That will create further volatility and early market economic data is due out.
I'll look for a move up to retrace some of the drop, that was fast and furious. It was a nice afternoon for us, but it was certainly quick once in motion. That of course leads to oversold conditions and points to a bounce for some retracement. The Nasdaq 100 held just over Tuesday's low, that will be key for further downside to break, the SPX, Nas Composite and the Dow broke already. We need that last foot off the ledge to see the market show us continuation off this selling. We've seen this a lot and NO confirmation, so don't jump in until we see the weakness continue. On the broader markets charts below I marked 38.2% support, that is where we look to test now and for the market to show us if buyers come in at that point or let the market see further retracement. If we move below 38.2% it will likely take us onto 61.8%, far more than a corrective pullback.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 CB Leading Index, 10:30 Nat Gas Storage, 1:30 FOMC Member Dudley speaks, 4:00 FOMC Member Evans speaks. Friday 8:30 Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks, 10:00 Existing Home Sales, 11:30 FOMC Member Kohn speaks.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Thursday pre market MMM, T, DOW, EMC, FITB, JBLU, KMB, MRK, NUE, PFCB, POT, R, TRA, TRV, UPS, WYE, ZMH and after the bell AMZN, AXP, BIDU, BRCM, BNI, COF, CAKE, CMG, NFLX, PMCS, RMBS. Friday pre market HON, IR, MSFT, SLB, WHR, and nothing after the bell.
NDX (Nasdaq 100) closed -2.63 at 1753.56. Support: 1733.36 38.2%, 1704.04, 1679.36 50dma. Resistance: 1769.40, 1788.61, 1801.24
SPX (S&P 500) closed -9.66 at 1081.40. Support: 1070.26 38.2%, 1060.66, 1043.21 50dma. Resistance: 1095.37, 1127.19, 1158.76, 1177.55
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
Oct 20, 2009
Tuesday fell into red territory after a strong opening and ended on a negative note across the broader markets. Volume increased today over Monday's light day to leave a distribution day. The VIX closed on a new low for the year at 20.90 and the TRIN closed at 1.66 bearish. Gold closed up 20 cents to $1058.30 and oil closed down $1.11 to $78.50 on the November contract which expired today and December the new front month closed down $1.04 to $78.92 a barrel.
After the bell SNDK and YHOO rallied off good reports, ISRG, GILD fell short and paid for it in the after hours trading. Futures didn't have the reaction they did Monday after the close to Apple because none of the stocks reporting were as important to the market. However, that changes Wednesday morning with some financials and then Wednesday after the bell will be hit and miss. Thursday will hold the key to some bigger market impact though. Wednesday our data is light until 2:00 and that will let the market have some digestion time. Tuesday's range was very narrow, which winds the market for a big move. After Monday sitting on new highs and now Tuesday trading down modestly to digest it is like a wait and see time.
Wednesday morning is likely to see some reaction to what MS, USB and WFC have to say, MCD and BA Dow components to look for. We will watch Tuesdays narrow range for a break out the bottom or the top to tip the market into a direction that is likely to continue. The only thing we need to be careful about is a gap down that is under Tuesday's low, a bounce back into Tuesday range could retest that range before falling off. A gap and go day for the bears isn't something I would count on, but with this action we've seen lately you can never rule it out. But as I said a gap down is likely to bounce then turn so watch for that. A gap up could let the bulls have early control, leaving us with difficult conditions to trade for the morning but the 2:00 beige book could help the later day volatility.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Wednesday 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 12:00 FOMC Member Lacker speaks, 2:00 Beige Book. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 CB Leading Index, 10:30 Nat Gas Storage, 1:30 FOMC Member Dudley speaks, 4:00 FOMC Member Evans speaks. Friday 8:30 Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks, 10:00 Existing Home Sales, 11:30 FOMC Member Kohn speaks.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Wednesday pre market MO, BA, LLY, GENZ, KEY, MCD, MS, NOC, PENN, STJ, USB, WFC and after the bell AFFX, AMGN, EBAY, FFIV, ISIL, NE, NVLS, OSIP, QLGC, VMW. Thursday pre market MMM, T, DOW, EMC, FITB, JBLU, KMB, MRK, NUE, PFCB, POT, R, TRA, TRV, UPS, WYE, ZMH and after the bell AMZN, AXP, BIDU, BRCM, BNI, COF, CAKE, CMG, NFLX, PMCS, RMBS. Friday pre market HON, IR, MSFT, SLB, WHR, and nothing after the bell.
COMPX (Nasdaq Composite) closed -12.85 at 2163.47. Support: 2160.77, 2150.53, 2143.29, 2070.27 50dma. Resistance: 2202.24, 2218.18, 2246.17.
SPX (S&P 500) closed -6.85 at 1091.06. Support: 1087.20, 1079.37, 1069.53, 1041.47 50dma. Resistance: 1127.19, 1158.76, 1177.55
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
Oct 19, 2009
Monday made an up day on light volume, the lightest volume the NYSE and Nasdaq has seen in a week. The day did add to the market's gains in October and of the last 11 days, 10 have been up. The VIX has been hanging around the years lows since Thursday of last week and remained there with a close at 21.49 after setting a new low on the year at 20.91. The TRIN closed at 1.24, never really dropping into the bulls territory today despite the move up across the market. Gold closed up $6.70 at $1058.20 and oil up 91 cents at $79.44 a barrel.
After the bell TXN reported and traded higher on good earnings and guidance, AAPL also traded up after the bell on good earnings exceeding expectations, one small issue for me in the conference call was the COO Tim Cook said gross margins for Q1 will be 34% vs 35.25%. That didn't stop the stock from running to all time new highs at 204.85, they were 202.96 from 12/23/07. The stock did settle at 200.32 area, but watch in the pre market session to see where it sits. This is a busy earnings week, the biggest of the quarter so more will roll out tomorrow to add to the markets tone. There is also economic data in the pre market that will be watched for movement as well.
The S&P 500 and the Dow traded to new highs on the year and closed at a new highs on the year, holding the days gains. The Nas 100 and Nasdaq Composite, lagged throughout the day, but finally did catch a bid and also made new intraday highs on the year and closed at a new high on the year. Expect a gap up in the morning, unless we have some really scary economic data, none of the earnings should knock the market off its feet, although there are some big cap stocks reporting. They should have more sector impact than overall market, watch for Dow components DD, CAT, KO and UTX though.
A gap up will either exhaust this move and pull us back into the prior highs, or it will give the market reason to finally leave this range and break away. A gap and go day is the hardest to trade, because things are up already and get overbought quickly and divergence usually rears its ugly head early on. The only way to trust the move is to watch for big market breadth early and no pullbacks. Daily stochastics are really flat, we are very close to the upper bollinger bands, the CCI is just over 100 line and RSI at 68ish, so some room to move. A gap up is likely to take us outside the upper BB on the daily and on the 65 minute as well, that will require some pullback to get snapped back in or a lot of digestion after the first hour to pull us back in. That would be when the chop sets in and bores us to death, so be careful if we see that setting in and look for that late day move of continuation.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Tuesday 8:30 Building Permits, 8:30 PPI, 8:30 Core PPI, 8:30 Housing Starts,11:00 FOMC Member Warsh Speaks. Wednesday 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 12:00 FOMC Member Lacker speaks, 2:00 Beige Book. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 CB Leading Index, 10:30 Nat Gas Storage, 1:30 FOMC Member Dudley speaks, 4:00 FOMC Member Evans speaks. Friday 8:30 Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks, 10:00 Existing Home Sales, 11:30 FOMC Member Kohn speaks.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Tuesday pre market BK, BIIB, BLK, EAT, CAT, COH, KO, DD, LXK, EDU, OXPS, PFE, STT, UAUA, UTX, UNH and after the bell CREE, GILD, ISRG, SNDK, SONC, SYK, YHOO. Wednesday pre market MO, BA, LLY, GENZ, KEY, MCD, MS, NOC, PENN, STJ, USB, WFC and after the bell AFFX, AMGN, EBAY, FFIV, ISIL, NE, NVLS, OSIP, QLGC, VMW. Thursday pre market MMM, T, DOW, EMC, FITB, JBLU, KMB, MRK, NUE, PFCB, POT, R, TRA, TRV, UPS, WYE, ZMH and after the bell AMZN, AXP, BIDU, BRCM, BNI, COF, CAKE, CMG, NFLX, PMCS, RMBS. Friday pre market HON, IR, MSFT, SLB, WHR, and nothing after the bell.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Tuesday's pivot 1090, weekly pivot 1080.25. Intraday support: 1083.75, 1079.75, 1075.75, 1075.75, 1070-1068.50 fills gap, 1063. Resistance: 1095-1096, 1098.75, 1101.28, 1107.75, 1110.50, 1113.25, 1126.50.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
Oct 15, 2009
Thursday makes for the eighth consecutive win for the broader markets. Volume did not come in heavy today though, was lighter than Wednesday, which was really heavy volume. The TRIN closed neutral at .95 and that goes with our narrow range day. The VIX closed at 21.72 which is 11% off the 10dma, leaves us still to look for a snap the other direction. Gold fell $14.20 to $1050.50 and oil rallied $2.33 to close at $77.49 a barrel.
Daily charts has 95 stochastics, 66-69 and flattening off RSI, CCI dropped back to 125 and a flat MACD for the Nas Composite, Nas 100, SPX and Dow. The hanging men candle on the Nas 100 and Nas Composite from Wednesday did not confirm on Thursday. Closing higher across the broader indexes just extended the markets to higher levels and it seemed like a pause day with such a narrow range, not real continuation. The pause had a lot to do with Google and IBM that reported after the bell. GOOG traded up after hour and IBM down, splitting the markets reaction in the middle. IBM did beat on the top line, but margin was off just slightly and guidance was good. It was a sell the news situation, Google beat on EPS and revenue, they don't give a lot of guidance usually and didn't say much today. Also about 25 minutes after the bell Treasury Secretary Geithner said the US recovery is better than expected thus far. Futures haven't reacted much to any of the news and nothing like what we saw Wednesday after the bell.
Coming into Friday we have a tired market that will start the day with big earnings and economic data into the bell. Everything I look at suggests the market needs to digest the last eight days and continues to narrow the range to wind for a move or rest. A pullback or continue sideways is the only way to work that off. The futures have not seen the weekly pivots and that isn't likely to happen with the ES being 40 points away from 1052.25, NQ 43 points off and the TF 22 points off. That would be one very big drop in a single day, not out of the question but isn't likely. It is expiration day for October options and that usually means a tight range and higher volume comes in. Because we've sat in range for the last two days off the gap up and then 4 days prior to that. Even putting the last 6 days together the market hasn't moved that far. Which leaves us to look for some pullback through this range to refuel.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Friday 9:00 TIC Long Term Purchases, 9:15 Capacity Utilization Rate, 9:15 Industrial Production, 9:55 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations. Sunday night 9 pm Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks, Monday 11:00 Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks, 1:00 NAHB Housing Market Index. Tuesday 8:30 Building Permits, 8:30 PPI, 8:30 Core PPI, 8:30 Housing Starts,11:00 FOMC Member Warsh Speaks. Wednesday 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 12:00 FOMC Member Lacker speaks, 2:00 Beige Book. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 CB Leading Index, 10:30 Nat Gas Storage, 1:30 FOMC Member Dudley speaks, 4:00 FOMC Member Evans speaks. Friday 8:30 Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks, 10:00 Existing Home Sales, 11:30 FOMC Member Kohn speaks.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Friday pre market BAC, GE, HAL, MAT and nothing after the bell. Monday pre market BBT, and after the bell AAPL, BSX, TXN, ZION. Tuesday pre market BK, BIIB, BLK, EAT, CAT, COH, KO, DD, LXK, EDU, OXPS, PFE, STT, UAUA, UTX, UNH and after the bell CREE, GILD, ISRG, SNDK, SONC, SYK, YHOO. Wednesday pre market MO, BA, LLY, GENZ, KEY, MCD, MS, NOC, PENN, STJ, USB, WFC and after the bell AFFX, AMGN, EBAY, FFIV, ISIL, NE, NVLS, OSIP, QLGC, VMW. Thursday pre market MMM, T, DOW, EMC, FITB, JBLU, KMB, MRK, NUE, PFCB, POT, R, TRA, TRV, UPS, WYE, ZMH and after the bell AMZN, AXP, BIDU, BRCM, BNI, COF, CAKE, CMG, NFLX, PMCS, RMBS. Friday pre market HON, IR, MSFT, SLB, WHR, and nothing after the bell.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Friday's pivot 1088.75, weekly pivot 1052.25. Intraday support: 1089.25, 1085, 1081.50, 1078, 1074.50, 1071.75, 1068.50 fills gap, 1063. Resistance: 1092.25, 1095, 1098.50-1100, 1110.50.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
Oct 14, 2009
Wednesday closed the day with big gains across the broader markets. Volume came in heavy to leave accumulation days on the NYSE and Nasdaq. JP Morgan (JPM) came in with nice earnings to follow Intel leaving the market with a very bullish tone throughout the day. The Dow closed over 10,000, the Nas Composite and S&P 500 also closed at new highs on the year. The Nas 100 moved through the 2009 highs, but didn't close over that prior high. The TRIN closed at .41 and the VIX at 22.86 about 9% off the 10dma. Gold closed down 40 cents at $1064.60 and oil up $1.00 to $75.15 a barrel.
Daily charts on the Nas 100 and the Nas Composite the hanging man candle closed into the upper Bollinger band, Stochastics at 90 and touching (no cross down yet), CCI is only 144, RSI at 67. SPX and Dow are into the upper Bollinger band with a very impulsive candle (marubozu) on the day. The Stochastics are up into the 90's and coming together, CCI Is over 100 line resistance and RSI 67 with a flat MACD. 65 minute on each index is extended into overbought territory. The market has been very digestive after the first hour and moves sideways to follow, with some movement into the final hour.
Thursday more earnings to help set the days tone and market moving economic data will be out throughout the morning. The overbought conditions will need to digest or pullback, another gap up would be very extreme in this market. However, if GS comes in with good news that is likely to be what we see. I have concerns about a sell the news setup off GS into Thursday to let the market pullback. That could come off the opening and then let the market resume the upside. A close over Wednesdays highs would be very bullish and push the market along nicely with new participation. A close under Wednesday's highs will cool the bulls jets for awhile and let the market come back and fill some of the open gaps.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Thursday 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 CPI, 8:30 Empire State Manufacturing Index, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, 11:00 Crude Oil Inventories. Friday 9:00 TIC Long Term Purchases, 9:15 Capacity Utilization Rate, 9:15 Industrial Production, 9:55 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Thursday pre market BIIB, SCHW, CIT, C, CY, GS, NOK, LUV, WGO and after the bell AMD, GOOG, IBM, NVLS, PMCS. Friday pre market BAC, GE, HAL, MAT and nothing after the bell.
INDU (Dow) closed +144.80 at 10015.86. Support: 9946.49, 9896.30, 9860.57, 9799.43. Resistance: 10095, 10157.30, 10178, 10219.50
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
Oct 13, 2009
Tuesday ended up being an narrow range zigzag day on the broader markets. The Nasdaq 100 and Composite closed with inside green days, SPX an outside day and green, Dow an outside day and modestly red. Volume was better than the prior two days on the NYSE and Nasdaq by a significant margin. The VIX closed at 22.99 and the TRIN at .99 neutral on the day. Gold closed up $7.10 at $1064.60 and oil up 88 cents to $74.15 a barrel.
After the bell the market found Intel to be good news and guidance was very positive for the company. The bulls are happy for now with INTC, and took AMD, NVDA, MU etc.. all trading up on the news. Before the bell the market has JPM, if that is good news I would expect these gains to hold for a big gap up in the morning. The market may hesitate to come off, but it should be an extreme gap if JPM helps the market hold these gains. That will leave us looking for a move off the highs early on. The daily charts we are not far from the upper Bollinger and the 2009 highs for resistance, watch those levels (The Dow 9931.82 the 2009 high, the SPX 1079.46, the Nasdaq at 1754.54 and the Nas Composite 2167.70). One way to clear big resistance like the 2009 highs is to gap over that level. Coming back to retest for support will be watched if we get that gap over. Also watch for analyst comments on INTC and the sector to have any impact in the morning. Tech rotation is good for the market and the fuel we would need to see this market continue, but we aren't finished with big earnings this week. So don't count on anything until we see some financials. Tech is one shoe in the right direction for IT spending, but we'll need JPM, C, BAC and others this week on the financials side to support the tech. Also some other big caps GOOG and IBM can turn anything around this week.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Wednesday 8:30 Core Retail Sales, 8:30 Retail Sales, 8:30 Import Prices, 10:00 Business Inventories, 2:00 FOMC Meeting Minutes. Thursday 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 CPI, 8:30 Empire State Manufacturing Index, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, 11:00 Crude Oil Inventories. Friday 9:00 TIC Long Term Purchases, 9:15 Capacity Utilization Rate, 9:15 Industrial Production, 9:55 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Wednesday pre market JPM, and after the bell STLD, XLNX. Thursday pre market BIIB, SCHW, CIT, C, CY, GS, NOK, LUV, WGO and after the bell AMD, GOOG, IBM, NVLS, PMCS. Friday pre market BAC, GE, HAL, MAT and nothing after the bell.
NQ (Nas 100 e-mini) Wednesday's pivot 1726.75, weekly pivot 1705. Support: 1720, 1715.25, 1712, 1708 fills gap, 1706.75 38.2%, 1696.50, 1686. Resistance: 1731.75, 1737.25, 1744.50, 1748.50, 1752.50-1753.25 9/23 swing high.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
Oct 12, 2009
Monday kicked the week off with modest gains on the broader indexes, the Nas Composite did leave a 14 cent loss. Overall was a narrow range day full of chop and no participation, anemic volume. Very typical for a partial holiday, it was barely worth showing up for today. The TRIN closed bullish at .58 and the VIX at 23.01. Gold closed at $1057.80 up $9.20 and oil up $1.38 to $73.15 a barrel.
The Dow did trade over 9917.99 the 2009 high, but came back in to close at 9885.80. The SPX traded up to 1079.46 within 69 cents of the 2009 high. The Nasdaq sat about 12.00 off the 1754.54 2009 highs and the Nas Composite about 13.00 off the 2009 highs. Pretty good attempt to get up for a test there and hold. Not getting the job done today changes nothing in the market because of the volume missing today. Which leaves every indicator about the same place we closed at on Friday and not a lot of bias in the market. The bulls still have hold of the market and weakness is being bought. Nothing is changing until it does on that front and if we can't take out the 2009 highs and close over them by mid week, the bears will step in and double top this market to put a lid on us for a pullback.
Tuesday look for the futures pivots to test, we didn't even get to the daily pivots today much less the weekly. The weekly are under us and not within sight yet, but it is option expiration week and a swing both directions usually comes into play by mid week. Some nervousness ahead of the INTC earnings will be the focus throughout Tuesday. Once we hear from that tech monster the market will focus on the financials yet to come this week. I have some downside preference for early into Tuesday and for the dip buyers to come in, INTC is expected to come in good, but the guidance is what we are looking for. The market looks forward and we've come along with little to back that up, now earnings have to back that up. Sitting right at the years highs is the line in the sand and not a place for the market to rethink this move up. It is time to move up and over or come off.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Tuesday 10:00 Economic Optimism, 1:00 FOMC Member Kohn Speaks, TBA Federal Budget Balance, Wednesday 8:30 Core Retail Sales, 8:30 Retail Sales, 8:30 Import Prices, 10:00 Business Inventories, 2:00 FOMC Meeting Minutes. Thursday 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 CPI, 8:30 Empire State Manufacturing Index, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, 11:00 Crude Oil Inventories. Friday 9:00 TIC Long Term Purchases, 9:15 Capacity Utilization Rate, 9:15 Industrial Production, 9:55 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Tuesday pre market JNJ and after the bell INTC, LLTC. Wednesday pre market JPM, and after the bell STLD, XLNX. Thursday pre market BIIB, SCHW, CIT, C, CY, GS, NOK, LUV, WGO and after the bell AMD, GOOG, IBM, NVLS, PMCS. Friday pre market BAC, GE, HAL, MAT and nothing after the bell.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Tuesday's pivot 1071.75, weekly pivot 1052.25. Intraday support: 1065.50, 1062.50-1061, 1059 swing low, 1056.75, 1054 fills gap, 1052.75, 1048.25, 1045.50, 1037 gap fill. Resistance: 1072.75, 1075.75 9/23 swing high, 1078.25, 1080.25, 1084.50, 1089.25.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
Oct 11, 2009
Friday left the market with five consecutive days up and a big gain on the week. The volume fell off Friday and was very lackluster action throughout most of the day. The VIX fell off and closed on the lows at 23.12. The TRIN closed neutral at .99 on the week. Gold closed down $7.60 at $1048.71 after a record week of new highs, oil closed up 24 cents at $71.93 a barrel.
Dow 9917.99, SPX 1080.15, NDX 1754.54 and Compx 2167.70 September highs (years high) are just overhead as resistance. The weekly charts are still under the upper Bollinger band and in the range the market has sat for five weeks. The weekly MACD has flattened off on each index, RSI is mid 60's, stochastics are still turned down but trying to turn, CCI at 100 resistance. Daily the COMPX left an inside day off Friday's action, the other indexes dropped the lows and moved back up to the weeks highs. Stochastics up in the high 80's, CCI at 100 line resistance, MACD trying to open to the upside and RSI in the low 60's pointed up. Leaving the bulls with room to move, but those highs will need to break out and see continuation.
The earnings for Q3 pick up this week and some biggies roll out for tech and financials. Brokers and hardware closed at new highs on the year, internets hit new highs Thursday and closed just off them. But that leaves three key sectors running fast and furious. Banks, Semiconductors and telecom are not far behind those sectors. Leaving each key sector and indexes all at the line in the sand. Which is not unusual as earnings get underway. Monday will be slow with bonds closed, that usually drifts into our markets for quiet action. After last weeks action starting with a gap and go on Monday and the strong close on Friday we may see another gap up this week. I think the dip buyers are still strong and alive, but with resistance overhead and big earnings this week. It is likely to be a narrow range day on Monday and then a market ready to move off news later in the week. This week is October option expiration, which also creates additional volatility.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Monday US bank holiday no data due out, Tuesday 10:00 Economic Optimism, 1:00 FOMC Member Kohn Speaks, TBA Federal Budget Balance, Wednesday 8:30 Core Retail Sales, 8:30 Retail Sales, 8:30 Import Prices, 10:00 Business Inventories, 2:00 FOMC Meeting Minutes. Thursday 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 CPI, 8:30 Empire State Manufacturing Index, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, 11:00 Crude Oil Inventories. Friday 9:00 TIC Long Term Purchases, 9:15 Capacity Utilization Rate, 9:15 Industrial Production, 9:55 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Monday pre market FAST and nothing after the bell, Tuesday pre market JNJ and after the bell INTC, LLTC. Wednesday pre market JPM, and after the bell STLD, XLNX. Thursday pre market BIIB, SCHW, CIT, C, CY, GS, NOK, LUV, WGO and after the bell AMD, GOOG, IBM, NVLS, PMCS. Friday pre market BAC, GE, HAL, MAT and nothing after the bell.
COMPX (Nasdaq Composite) closed +15.35 at 2139.28. Support: 2101.83, 2046.98 50dma, 1999.37 38.2%, 1947.38. Resistance: 2140.53, 2167.70-2171.80, 2218.18.
SPX (S&P 500) closed +6.01 at 1071.49. Support: 1051.80, 1029.44 50dma, 999.61 38.2%, 974.73. Resistance: 1080.15, 1087.92, 1096.82
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
Oct 8, 2009
Thursday traded higher on the day and left another gap below us open. Volume came in heavier today on the NYSE and Nasdaq for an accumulation day. The TRIN closed at .89 and the VIX at 24.18. The market gave up late day, but still held onto the green day. We just closed well off the highs that were put in at 12:30 and then the market went into drift mode. Gold closed at $1056.20 up $11.80 and oil up $2.11 to $71.68 a barrel.
The day had nice participation and intraday patterns 5, 13 minute left head and shoulders. The day ended before the lows could test, which is the neckline. We'll watch for that into Friday. Friday starts the day with early data and then nothing for the remainder of the day. This weeks lift has left the market just under the September highs, which are the 52 week highs on the market. As many stocks continue to hit 52 week highs the market will start to move into option expiration week and earnings continue to get busier next week.
The close with the head and shoulders leaves me to look for a move down. However, after the weeks surprise group of earnings the upside may start the day. As long as the highs on Thursday are not broken we look for downside. The weeks trend has been strong and to the upside, pullbacks should be looked at as buying opportunities. We have only seen shallow pullbacks and dip buyers rush in, so that tone isn't likely to change into Friday as we close out the week.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Friday 8:30 Trade Balance. Monday US bank holiday no data due out, Tuesday 10:00 Economic Optimism, 1:00 FOMC Member Kohn Speaks, TBA Federal Budget Balance, Wednesday 8:30 Core Retail Sales, 8:30 Retail Sales, 8:30 Import Prices, 10:00 Business Inventories, 2:00 FOMC Meeting Minutes. Thursday 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 CPI, 8:30 Empire State Manufacturing Index, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, 11:00 Crude Oil Inventories. Friday 9:00 TIC Long Term Purchases, 9:15 Capacity Utilization Rate, 9:15 Industrial Production, 9:55 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Friday nothing due out. Monday pre market FAST and nothing after the bell, Tuesday pre market JNJ and after the bell INTC, LLTC. Wednesday pre market JPM, and after the bell STLD, XLNX. Thursday pre market BIIB, SCHW, CIT, C, CY, GS, NOK, LUV, WGO and after the bell AMD, GOOG, IBM, NVLS, PMCS. Friday pre market BAC, GE, HAL, MAT and nothing after the bell.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Friday's pivot 1062.50, weekly pivot 1033.25. Intraday support: 1060.50, 1057.75, 1054 fills gap, 1047.25, 1037 gap fill. Resistance: 1065.75 swing high, 1068.50, 1072.75, 1075.75 9/23 swing high, 1080.25, 1084.50.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
Oct 7, 2009
Wednesday gave the market another winning day, but left a very narrow range inside day. Volume was lacking today, but that usually goes with an inside day. Very digestive action for the market and nothing to excite participants to push out of the range, probably awaiting the Alcoa earnings kick off. The A/D and U/D lines were neutral throughout the day. The TRIN closed at 1.24 bearish, the VIX closed at 24.68. Gold pushed up another day to close at $1044.70 +5.00 and oil down $1.22 at $69.66 a barrel.
The market is seeing a lot of stocks on or very near 52 week highs as the broader indexes sits under the September 23rd highs for the year. Very resilient market saw the first of the earnings for Q3 and it started strong. Alcoa traded up in after hours and put the globex session for futures in motion. They are still positive and likely to stay that way until we see the Unemployment data at 8:30. Daily charts the indicators made a small step higher today, the CCI is at 0 line, stochastics are still pointed up and into the 60's, RSI high 50's and MACD is still flat but trying to move up. An inside day doesn't change a lot technically for the market. But it does give a nice range to bracket for a break to find direction. Thursday to find the first move of the day a break of the Wednesday's will guide us. The market sits right under resistance, The Dow 9731.61 61.8%, Nas Composite 2119.20 61.8%, Nas 100 1717.12 61.8%, SPX at 1057.15 61.8% resistance. 61.8% is now key to the market revisiting the highs from September.
We will look for another move up on the market if the data is good. If the data disappoints the market is still teetering on thin ice, so don't let a fake break out catch you. Some of the heavy hitting stocks have had BIG days and are overbought. That concerns me about this lift, but slow and steady and some sector rotation could fix that problem easily. Oil has been volatile, gold off the charts and today internets led. Semiconductors lagged, watch that for a move of strength into Thursday to help boost us over the highs and run. Without that we aren't likely to continue up here without a pullback.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 Wholesale Inventories, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Trade Balance.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Thursday pre market MAR, PEP, PGR, TSCM and after the bell INFY, NUHC. Friday nothing due out.
COMPX (Nasdaq Composite) closed +6.76 at 2110.33. Support: 2087.50, 2040.76 50dma, 1999.37, 1947.38. Resistance: 2119.20, 2140.53, 2167.70.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
Oct 6, 2009
Tuesday started strong with a gap up and finished even higher. The market showed its resiliency again today to close higher across the board, however unlike Monday's lift, the volume showed higher participation today. An accumulation day for the bulls was needed after that light volume lift yesterday. The TRIN closed at .86 which was about mid range, the VIX closed at 25.64. Gold moved to new all time highs today, closing at $1039.70 +21.90 and oil up 51 cents to close at $70.92 an ounce.
The Nasdaq lagged on Monday, leaving us under that key 38.2% resistance, well Tuesday took care of that when we gapped open right to it. That is the easy way to clear resistance and to get things moving. The SPX and Dow moved with the Nasdaq and held the gains to close near the highs. The indicators on the daily charts for each index closed with the RSI turning up, CCI back near 0 line, Stochastics turned up and the MACD is trying to turn up. The Dow closed into 9731.61 61.8%, Nas Composite 2104.22 50% (2119.20 61.8% overhead), Nas 100 1705.56 50% (1717.12 61.8% overhead), SPX closed at 1057.15 61.8% resistance. 61.8% is key now to let the market revisit the highs from September. With the Nasdaq still lagging, we have to watch again for another gap into that level. Certainly didn't waste anytime showing us that 38.2% was not a problem so this is more than a bounce at this point and the bulls bought into the dip.
Monday the market turned off the 50dma's and now confirmed with another day over. That also shows us the dip buyers stepped in. I did not give Monday's action a lot of thought it was not led by tech and on light volume, that is usually a sign for no follow through. The gap and go action no doubt trapped some shorts below us and any weakness or poor data would likely send the market in a big tug of war to get that cleared up. With Wednesday after the bell earnings from Alcoa (AA) the market maybe jittery. Although Alcoa isn't a big hitter in the market any longer, it will start to set the tone on earnings this quarter. We'll see the big impact stocks next week and the weeks to follow.
Into Wednesday look for a small pullback and to see if the market can take out Tuesday's highs. If we get that far the bulls may step on the gas and push us along. A digestive day is likely if we can't break Tuesday's range to get us into earnings. Data is light again on Wednesday, to leave us with a slower opening most likely.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Wednesday 10:30 Crude Oil Inventory, 3:00 Consumer Credit. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 Wholesale Inventories, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Trade Balance.
NQ (Nas 100 e-mini) Wednesday's pivot 1697.75, weekly pivot 1681.50. Support: 1689, 1682, 1675-1674.75 fills gap, 1669.75, 1665.25, 1662. Resistance: 1703, 1711.25, 1714.75, 1723.75, 1731.75
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Wednesday pre market COST, FDO, MON, and after the bell AA, RT. Thursday pre market MAR, PEP, PGR, TSCM and after the bell INFY, NUHC. Friday nothing due out.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
Oct 5, 2009
Monday brought a day of retracement on light volume. The market moved higher throughout the day, leaving the SPX and Dow retracing 38.2% of the losses since 9/23. However, the Nas 100 and Nas Composite didn't even get out of Thursday's range. Green close was nice, but the light volume is nothing to hang our hat on for the bulls. The TRIN closed at .55 and the VIX at 26.84 off 1.84. Oil closed up 46 cents at $70.41 and gold up $13.70 to $1018.00 an ounce.
Monday's data surprised us and came in a little better than expected. After all the disappointments last week, this was a nice change of pace. Tuesday doesn't have any data due out and Wednesday is light as well. However, Wednesday kicks off earnings season a much anticipated look at what companies will have to say over the next month gets underway. Financials outpaced tech today, which let the SPX and Dow retrace higher than the Nasdaq. A retracement into 38.2% is a corrective move and resistance. Retracing on light volume is considered corrective and we can't get excited about further upside. 1042.95 on the SPX and 9616.46 on the Dow is the key resistance at 38.2%. The Nasdaq sits well under with 2089.23 COMPX and 1693.99 NDX 38.2% resistance. Unless the Nasdaq catches fire and comes up with the SPX and Dow I am not expecting this upside to continue. If we clear 38.2% on each index, THEN we will buy into this moving higher.
Futures did test the weekly pivot on the ES and TF and just 1 tick off the NQ's. So that is pretty much cleared up and we can look for daily tests into Tuesday. We may see another narrow range lackluster day while the market continues to digest last weeks drop and get moving into the second half of the week.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Tuesday nothing due out. Wednesday 10:30 Crude Oil Inventory, 3:00 Consumer Credit. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 Wholesale Inventories, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Trade Balance.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Tuesday pre market PBG and after the bell YUM. Wednesday pre market COST, FDO, MON, and after the bell AA, RT. Thursday pre market MAR, PEP, PGR, TSCM and after the bell INFY, NUHC. Friday nothing due out.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Tuesday's pivot 1032.25, weekly pivot 1033.25. Intraday support: 1031, 1029.50 38.2%, 1026.75, 1024, 1020, 1015 10/2 swing low, 1009.25 fills 9/4 gap, 1006. Resistance: 1040.50, 1046.25, 1050.75, 1054.75, 1057.75
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
Oct 4, 2009
Friday closed the day red, making 8 of the last 10 down days. Volume was light on Friday leaving the market lackluster in a very narrow range. The VIX closed at 28.68 and the TRIN 1.08 bearish on the day. Oil closed at $69.83 down 98 cents and gold up $3.30 at $1004 an ounce. Disappointing data plagued the bulls this week and continued to push the market lower for the last four days.
Nasdaq Composite sits just over the 50dma, CCI is at extremes, RSI 44, Stochastics at 16, MACD opened to the downside. Nasdaq 100 also sits just over the 50dma, RSI is 45, MACD is pointed down, CCI is over -200 extremes and stochastics at 16. S&P 500 tapped the 50dma, but held over the support. The RSI is 44, Stochastics 16 and CCI -212 and the MACD pointed down. The Dow dropped 400 points this week, left the CCI -217, RSI at 44 and stochastics at 15 and on top of the 50dma.
Weekly charts the Nasdaq Composite, Nas 100, S&P 500 and the Dow all confirmed last weeks shooting star, MACD is coming together, CCI fell under 100 line support, RSI turned down and Stochastics crossed down. This made for the second consecutive week of losses. The last correction was 4 weeks down starting on June 14th, it was approximately 10%. A comparable move now would be corrective and let the market rest after all this upside.
The 50dma's will be support, but with 38.2% support nearing the market could overshoot that key moving average to get that first retracement level. There are also open gaps left near those levels for support converging with about a 10% move off the highs. That would be a nice corrective move and let the market setup for earnings that kick off this week. Wednesday is the official kick off with Alcoa after the bell. After Friday's narrow range and digestive tone, the market can unwind on Monday. Friday did have the TRIN bounce, but not as powerful as I expected. Early Monday look for some buying to come in for a little further move and let volume be our judge for participation and momentum.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Monday 10:00 ISM Non Manufacturing PMI. Tuesday nothing due out. Wednesday 10:30 Crude Oil Inventory, 3:00 Consumer Credit. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 Wholesale Inventories, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Trade Balance.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Monday nothing pre market and after the bell MOS. Tuesday pre market PBG and after the bell YUM. Wednesday pre market COST, FDO, MON, and after the bell AA, RT. Thursday pre market MAR, PEP, PGR, TSCM and after the bell INFY, NUHC. Friday nothing due out.
NDX (Nasdaq 100) closed -3.92 at 1662.49. Support: 1658.84, 1647.41 50dma, 1617.15 38.2%. Resistance: 1693.99, 1717.12, 1733.57, 1754.54.
SPX (S&P 500) closed -4.64 at 1025.21. Support: 1021.70 50dma, 999.61, 974.73, 949.85. Resistance: 1042.95, 1057.15, 1067.27, 1080.15
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
Oct 1, 2009
Thursday dropped the market on the single biggest move in a day since September 1st, volume split although the price action was very decisive. The NYSE was higher volume and the Nasdaq along with futures was lower. Futures were BARELY lighter than Wednesday. Two big days of volume is a sign of a lot of participation. The TRIN closed very high at 3.63, the high on the day was 3.81. The VIX closed up 2.66 at 28.27 a range we haven't seen since September 3rd. Gold closed down $8.90 at $1000.40 and oil up 12 cents to $70.73 a barrel.
This drop brought the market back to levels we haven't seen since 9/10 and left us starting to look for the 50dma. The Nasdaq Composite has 50dma at 2031.81 and 38.2% at 1999.37 for key support levels. Nasdaq 100 1646.19 50dma and 1617.15 38.2% support. S&P 500 has the 50dma at 1020.72 and 999.61 38.2%. The Dow 9449.69 50dma and 9218.62 38.2% below that. Which gives each index two key levels of support nearing. The market has needed a correction and retracing some of the lift we've had since July 8th swing lows to the highs at 9/23, those 38.2% levels will be a good corrective level. That would also be around 10% on each index and a gap left from 9/4. Im really sorry but my son has a soccer game tonight so I have to leave earlier than normal.
Intraday the drop left us oversold and with a fair amount of divergence. That generally causes a snapback move. That along with a TRIN closing over 2 (WAY OVER) will also leave us on watch for a move back up. Such extreme moves, like to retrace and digest. That does not mean the market won't continue lower and support is below us on the 50dma's and 38.2% is even under that on each index. It just means there should be ample opportunity to see a bounce early and then see if the market will continue the move onto support. Early data will be a market mover, so be sure you stay on your toes at the opening. The first hour is likely to be where the volatility is and after that the digestive tone may take over.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Friday 8:30 NonFarm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings, 10:00 Factory Orders. Monday 10:00 ISM Non Manufacturing PMI. Tuesday nothing due out. Wednesday 10:30 Crude Oil Inventory, 3:00 Consumer Credit. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 Wholesale Inventories, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Trade Balance.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Friday nothing of interest.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Friday's pivot 1033.75, weekly pivot 1051. Intraday support: 1026.25, 1021, 1018, 1015.75 9/8 swing low, 1009.25 fills 9/4 gap, 1006. Resistance: 1034, 1037.75, 1041.75, 1046, 1049.25, 1051.75, 1053.75 fills gap.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
Sep 30, 2009
The Nasdaq 100 closed modestly red while the other key indexes closed modestly green. Volume came in very strong and by far the highest we've seen in over a week. Futures were significantly higher and the ES almost doubled yesterdays. Big participation to close out September on high note. Big gains for the month on each index and is leaving the market with some unknowns heading into October and earnings season. The TRIN closed at 1.28, well off its near 3 readings earlier in the day. The VIX closed up 42 cents at 25.61. Gold pushed up $15.10 closing at $1009.50 and oil up $3.78 to close at $70.49 a barrel.
The Chicago PMI shook the market in a BIG way, falling through supports, but holding the weeks low. Just to be sure we don't get a new high or low on the last day of the week. When looking at the daily chart it looks like the market did nothing all day. That was not really the intraday picture, the market went from oversold to overbought all in a matter of hours. Typical end of quarter action to play tug of war throughout the day. Now that is behind us! HOORAY!!
Alright Thursday kicks off October, also the sites 4th anniversary. Although was a narrow range day, it did show some fatigue by days end. The CCI is at 0 line support, RSI turned down, MACD pointed down and only stochastics is not signaling the bears on the daily charts for the indexes. Because nothing changed the same levels we've watched all week are still under the microscope. Each index resistance to watch SPX 1065.26, COMPX 2136.24, NDX 1730.40 and Dow 9812.50. Key support for Nasdaq Composite 2076.76 38.2%, Nas 100 1681.43 38.2%, S&P 500 1041.32 38.2%, Dow 9585.46 50% is still on tap for us to watch. I expect to see a break of the weeks range tomorrow. We marked time into month end to have a great gain, now is the time to look forward to earnings. October 7th Alcoa (AA) kicks off earnings season. That will roll-out slowly through next week and pick up steam into the following week.
ES over 1061 look for the weeks high 1075.75. ANY failure to rally we look for 1047.50 and lower to come our way. NQ over 1728.50 and onto 1753.25 the weeks highs. NQ under 1697.50 look for 1688 and lower. The ES around 1054 has been a real struggle all week, rotating off the ledge there is our first move on the ES into Thursday. Early data is likely to move us and the Fed Chairman speaks prior to the market opening. That could get things moving WELL ahead of the bell. I don't have a real bias for direction, but marginally suspect of this propped up day for month end.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Thursday 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Core PCE Price Index, 8:30 Personal Spending, 8:30 Personal Income, 9:00 Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing, 10:00 Pending Home Sales, 10:00 Construction Spending m/m, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing Prices, 10:30 Natural Gas, All day vehicle sales. Friday 8:30 NonFarm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings, 10:00 Factory Orders. Monday 10:00 ISM Non Manufacturing PMI. Tuesday nothing due out. Wednesday 10:30 Crude Oil Inventory, 3:00 Consumer Credit. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 Wholesale Inventories, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Trade Balance.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Thursday pre market STZ, TSCM and after the bell ACN, MU, SMSC. Friday nothing of interest.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Thursday's pivot 1051.75, weekly pivot 1051. Intraday support: 1048.25, 1045.25, 1042.50-1041.50, 1036.25. Resistance: 1060.50-1061, 1064.25, 1067.50, 1071.50, 1075.75
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
Sep 29, 2009
Tuesday a narrow range day, that ended with a modest loss in very lackluster action. The market started strong with a lagging Nasdaq and just couldn't find the buyers with the Nasdaq Composite and Nas 100 sitting under yesterday's highs. The S&P 500 and Dow did trade over yesterday's highs, but closed back within Monday's range. With the small loss on the day did some volume, so that leaves us with a distribution day on the NYSE, Nasdaq and futures. The TRIN was .88 on the day which is bullish but approaching neutral territory and had been crawling up slowly throughout the afternoon. The VIX closed at 25.14 up .31 on the day. Gold closed down 10 cents to $994.00 and oil down 23 cents to $66.61 a barrel.
The lackluster Nasdaq contributed to the narrow range with the tech weight on us. Banks and brokers split on the day and left us confused for a large part of the day. Basically it was a very digestive fence sitting day. Onto Wednesday we'll have more opportunities for the market to move out of the range it is parked in. The day will start with early data and onto data after the bell, especially after the disappointing consumer confidence data today.
Each index retraced to 61.8% (SPX 1065.26, COMPX 2136.24, NDX 1730.40 and Dow 9812.50) on the drop we had last week, this is a key resistance and one we'll watch into Wednesday. The market did spike into those levels off the early move and quickly rejected. So that is still the overhead level to watch carefully. Key support for Nasdaq Composite 2076.76 38.2%, Nas 100 1681.43 38.2%, S&P 500 1041.32 38.2%, Dow 9585.46 50% is still on tap for us to watch. Wednesday we should see some follow through on the market, and not this meandering business we had on Tuesday.
With the data it is also end of the month and quarter. That leaves the market with plenty to think about as we close out September. It would require a huge sell off to take the month into red territory, but some correction could come into play. Window dressing for month end has been down 8 of the last 11 day of the quarter. We haven't done a lot in the way of following history lately but keep that in mind.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Wednesday 8:15 ADP NonFarm Employment Change, 8:30 Final GDP, 9:45 Chicago PMI, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 10:30 FOMC Member Lockhart speaks, 12:30 FOMC Member Kohn Speaks. Thursday 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Core PCE Price Index, 8:30 Personal Spending, 8:30 Personal Income, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing, 10:00 Pending Home Sales, 10:00 Construction Spending m/m, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing Prices, 10:30 Natural Gas, All day vehicle sales. Friday 8:30 NonFarm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings, 10:00 Factory Orders.
NQ (Nas 100 e-mini) Wednesday's pivot 1717.50, weekly pivot 1713. Support: 1710.50, 1705.50, 1701.50, 1698, 1696.75 fills gap, 1688.75-1688 38.2% Resistance: 1719.50, 1722.75, 1727, 1732.50, 1734.50, 1739.50, 1743
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Wednesday pre market PBG and after the bell LWSN, XRTX. Thursday pre market STZ, TSCM and after the bell ACN, MU, SMSC. Friday nothing of interest.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
Sep 28, 2009
Monday erased two of the three down days last week and left the market finishing just off its highs. Volume lacked today, very light on the NYSE, Nasdaq and futures. It is Yom Kippur a Jewish holiday, leaving the market a little lackluster in participation. The VIX closed at 24.88 and the TRIN at .60 bullish. Gold finished the day up $3.00 to $994.60 and oil up 87 cents to $66.89 a barrel.
Monday's gap and go day worked itself into overbought conditions and a lot of divergence. Then during late lunch the market started to correct itself and correct the overbought conditions and divergence. The pace was excruciating and certainly showed the lack of participation. Leaving Monday as a nice retracement off last weeks fall and now sets the week for a move to come. Each index retraced to 61.8% on the drop we had last week, this is a key resistance and one we'll watch into Tuesday -- SPX 1065.26, COMPX 2136.24, NDX 1730.40 and Dow 9812.50. Key support for Nasdaq Composite 2076.76 38.2%, Nas 100 1681.43 38.2%, S&P 500 1041.32 38.2%, Dow 9585.46 50% is still on tap for us to watch.
Retracement into Monday's range to retest support is very likely given the light volume we went up on and the heavy volume we came down on last week. A shallow retracement is not out of the question to see the market move forward though, so look at those 61.8% as a guide. Getting through those levels is likely to ignite the dip buyers and push the market into last weeks highs.
Futures did not get the daily pivot on the NQ or TF, but the ES did. Each did test the weekly though, so we've cleared that up already. Es over 1060.75 look for 1075.75. ES under 1045.75 we look to retest that 1041.75 key level. NQ 1728.75 resistance and onto 1753.25, NQ support at 1688 is likely to test if the NQ fails at 1728.75. TF 612.30 and onto 624.20 for resistance and under for support 595.50.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Tuesday pre market 9:00 S&P/CS Composite 20 HPI, 10:00 CB Consumer Confidence. Wednesday 8:15 ADP NonFarm Employment Change, 8:30 Final GDP, 9:45 Chicago PMI, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 10:30 FOMC Member Lockhart speaks, 12:30 FOMC Member Kohn Speaks. Thursday 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Core PCE Price Index, 8:30 Personal Spending, 8:30 Personal Income, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing, 10:00 Pending Home Sales, 10:00 Construction Spending m/m, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing Prices, 10:30 Natural Gas, All day vehicle sales. Friday 8:30 NonFarm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings, 10:00 Factory Orders.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Tuesday pre market WAG and after the bell DRI, JBL, NKE. Wednesday pre market PBG and after the bell LWSN, XRTX. Thursday pre market STZ, TSCM and after the bell ACN, MU, SMSC. Friday nothing of interest.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Tuesday's pivot 1054.75, weekly pivot 1051. Intraday support: 1051.50, 1048.50, 1045.75, 1041.75-1041.25 fills gap, 1036.25. Resistance: 1060.75, 1064.25, 1067.50, 1075.75
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
Sep 27, 2009
Friday closed the day down, third consecutive down day, on the broader markets. Volume was lighter on Friday on the NYSE, Nasdaq and on futures. Very narrow day overall on the market and pretty quiet, but still a modest drop. The week closed lower, something we haven't seen a lot of. The VIX closed at 25.61 and the TRIN at 1.74 bearish on the day. Oil closed up 8 cents to close at $65.97 and gold down $7.00 at $991.90 an ounce.
The market is nearing key support levels on each index, coming into Monday we will watch for Nasdaq Composite 2076.76 38.2%, Nas 100 1681.43 38.2%, S&P 500 1041.32 38.2%, Dow 9585.46 50% support levels. Drop of those levels we look for 1999.37 COMPX, 1617.15 NDX, 899.61 SPX, and 9218.62 for the Dow. On the daily charts for the Dow, NDX, COMPX and SPX the all have stochastics turned down to about 33, CCI at 0 line, MACD tipping but not over the cliff, RSI down to 56. Leaving the day with some support nearing and indicators coming along with the price action, but not even close to oversold at this point.
Weekly charts RSI 67, Stochastics turning, CCI 114 and MACD closing up on each index. Along with the indicators turning down we have a possible reversal candle. The week closed with the shooting stars into the upper Bollinger. The market has come a very long way since the March bottom. So this little turn down this week is long overdue, we did have a few down weeks along the way. ONLY to see the market continue after a little rest. Which leaves us to watch the support levels outlined above and use it as a buying opportunity. Seeing the market pullback now ahead of earnings season would make sense and allow the market to start looking forward. We've seen some improvement in economic data, but not everything is improving. Waiting on earnings to help value the quarter ahead is away to look forward and hear what is lagging and what if anything is improving. This is also the holiday quarter, which matters on many levels, primarily how the consumer is doing in order to spend.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Monday nothing due out. Tuesday pre market 9:00 S&P/CS Composite 20 HPI, 10:00 CB Consumer Confidence. Wednesday 8:15 ADP NonFarm Employment Change, 8:30 Final GDP, 9:45 Chicago PMI, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 10:30 FOMC Member Lockhart speaks, 12:30 FOMC Member Kohn Speaks. Thursday 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Core PCE Price Index, 8:30 Personal Spending, 8:30 Personal Income, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing, 10:00 Pending Home Sales, 10:00 Construction Spending m/m, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing Prices, 10:30 Natural Gas, All day vehicle sales. Friday 8:30 NonFarm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings, 10:00 Factory Orders.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Monday nothing of interest. Tuesday pre market WAG and after the bell DRI, JBL, NKE. Wednesday pre market PBG and after the bell LWSN, XRTX. Thursday pre market STZ, TSCM and after the bell ACN, MU, SMSC. Friday nothing of interest.
COMPX (Nasdaq Composite) closed -16.69 at 2090.92. Support: 2087.54-2076.76 38.2%, 2048.67. Resistance: 2116.81, 2136.24, 2150.08
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
Sep 24, 2009
Thursday turned out another day for the bears and left the broader markets red. Volume split on the NYSE and Nasdaq today, the NYSE outpaced yesterday and Nasdaq came in slightly lower. Remember the Nasdaq doesn't have financial stocks, so that is likely the difference today. Futures all came in with higher volume than we had on Wednesday for distribution days again today. The TRIN closed in the bears territory at 1.83 and the VIX up +1.51 at 25.88. Gold closed down $16.30 at $998.30 and oil down $3.04 at $65.93 a barrel.
Thursday started mixed with the Nasdaq gapping up and the rest of the indexes opening flat. That threw off the early movement but the end result was still a drop throughout the day. Heavy market breadth showed up in the first 40 minutes and just never let up. Daily charts did take a turn, all closing under yesterdays range and that confirms the reversal bars we were looking at yesterday. The Nasdaq's lighter volume isn't a true confirmation because you need lower closes and volume to confirm reversals. SPX and Dow of course did get that confirmation, but until we drop through 38.2% support that needs to be walked around lightly. Pullback mentality is still here for us until we start to break supports on the uptrend. Stochastics turned down, CCI is just over 0 line, MACD is tilting down and the RSI is falling on the daily charts for each index.
By days end the bears were pausing and letting the market hold for a small bounce. Which left all the indexes and key sectors to close off the lows, but still all in the lower 30% of the days range. 65 minute charts closed with the market trying to bounce and giving some weak action. I am looking for a gap down in the morning, if we don't get that the Friday small range dip buyers are likely to come in. However, if we do get the gap down, look for a bounce to come in for a retest into Thursday's closing range. Early data Friday will come in for some volatility, but I think we are in for a narrow range day to digest the past two days of selling.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Friday 8:30 Core Durable Goods Orders, 8:30 Durable Goods Orders, 9:55 Revised Univ Of Michigan, 9:55 Univ Of Mich Consumer Sentiment, 10:00 New Home Sales, G20 meeting continues. Monday nothing due out. Tuesday pre market 9:00 S&P/CS Composite 20 HPI, 10:00 CB Consumer Confidence. Wednesday 8:15 ADP NonFarm Employment Change, 8:30 Final GDP, 9:45 Chicago PMI, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 10:30 FOMC Member Lockhart speaks, 12:30 FOMC Member Kohn Speaks. Thursday 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Core PCE Price Index, 8:30 Personal Spending, 8:30 Personal Income, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing, 10:00 Pending Home Sales, 10:00 Construction Spending m/m, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing Prices, 10:30 Natural Gas, All day vehicle sales. Friday 8:30 NonFarm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings, 10:00 Factory Orders.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Friday pre market KBH and nothing after the bell. Monday nothing of interest. Tuesday pre market WAG and after the bell DRI, JBL, NKE. Wednesday pre market PBG and after the bell LWSN, XRTX. Thursday pre market STZ, TSCM and after the bell ACN, MU, SMSC. Friday nothing of interest.
NQ (Nas 100 e-mini) Friday's pivot 1709.50, weekly pivot 1705.50. Support: 1693.50, 1688 38.2%, 1671.50, 1668. Resistance: 1717.75, 1724.75, 1731.50, 1741
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
Sep 23, 2009
Wednesday closed the day red on higher volume for a distribution day on the NYSE and Nasdaq. We erased Tuesdays accumulation day with an exhaustive move off the Fed. Volume on futures came in higher than Tuesday's to leave a distribution day there too. The TRIN closed at 2.30, bearish and the first that high since September 1st which was over 3. The VIX again hitting new intraday lows for the year at 22.19 and closed up 41 cents at 23.49. Gold closed down 1.10 at $1014.40 and oil down $2.77 ending the day at $68.99 a barrel.
The Fed kept rates at historically low levels and made some changes to the statement. However, over all the statement echoed what Fed Chairman Bernanke stated last week. Basically things are improving but slowly and we aren't out of the woods yet. The buyback of debt was extended to March 2010 to let the economy continue to improve and see how things go. I don't see anything in the statement to “blame” the fed for today's drop. The market hit overbought conditions and key resistance and pulled back is my take on the move. The exhaustive move is good for the market and will allow the upside to get a rest now.
One distribution day doesn't really spoil the bulls run. The market is still trending up and a correction or a good rest is necessary to continue any movement. The day also left a shooting star, which if confirmed with a lower close on Thursday a deeper pullback should come into play. Intraday the market tapped new highs on the year, so don't expect a smooth move early on. Some jitters about..should investors pile in on a single down day, should investors take some profits and more scenarios than we could list here come into play. Expect some jittery action and be patient on the pullback.
The TRIN closed over 2 to let the market setup for an early bounce. We haven't seen a lot of downside for weeks so these bars were heavy and kept accelerating as we dropped through support levels. On the morning bounce for the TRIN watch the ES test 1063, any further 1068 and that would be more than a TRIN bounce, it will be the dip buyers rushing back in. On the NQ 1733.25 is a key retracement any further up to 1740.75 would be more than a bounce. TF watch 616.10 retracement then 619.20 retracement. On the downside 1052.50 support drops we can look for 1039.50 to get a good look. NQ watch 1722 support and then to 1702.75 for a key level. TF 609.30 and then 600.20 levels. So we look for a bounce, then a retest of Wednesday's low and the levels above for any further drop.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 Existing Home Sales, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, Day 1 G20 meeting. Friday 8:30 Core Durable Goods Orders, 8:30 Durable Goods Orders, 9:55 Revised Univ Of Michigan, 9:55 Univ Of Mich Consumer Sentiment, 10:00 New Home Sales, Day 2 G20 meeting.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Thursday pre market AM, RAD, SCS, TXI and after the bell COMS, FINL, RIMM. Friday pre market KBH and nothing after the bell.
NQ (Nas 100 e-mini) Thursday's pivot 1733, weekly pivot 1705.50. Support: 1722, 1717.50, 1712.25-1711.75, 1705.25, 1702.75, 1695.50-1694.25 fills gap. Resistance: 1733.25, 1737, 1741, 1746.50, 1753.25-1754.25, 1758.50
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
Sep 22, 2009
Tuesday closed the market green across the broader markets and on higher volume. A narrow range accumulation day, while it is good to see participation it is still suspect. The TRIN closed at .74 bullish number however, that was on the day's highs. The VIX closed at 23.08 not far off the 2009 lows at 22.48, but that is a new closing low on the year. Gold closed the day up $10.90 at $1015.80 and oil up $1.79 at $71.50 (October) a barrel (November up $1.85 $71.78).
As mentioned on Monday daily charts closed with divergence, but Tuesday straightened that out. So nothing to look for on that front now. The daily charts are still waning as the upper Bollinger band sits just overhead. The Nas Composite broke out of a 4 day range, but the Nas 100, S&P 500 and Dow sit at the upper end of the range. By days end the 65 minute charts were starting to rollover, but not enough time to confirm anything or move lower. The stochastics, RSI, CCI all trying to rotate down, but again we'll have to wait to see what Wednesday's first hour brings. The mid day chop was dull again today leaving us with very little opportunity, I would expect Wednesday's Fed announcement at 2:15 to create some volatility for us.
Into Wednesday expect the first hour to be our range until the 2:15 announcement rolls around. Usually pre fed action is lackluster and the last two days we've had lackluster action throughout lunch and into the afternoon, so our late morning into lunch is likely to be range bound chop. We will use that time to prepare for any changes the Fed may make in the statement, nothing on the rate is expected to change for this meeting. An early move higher could get some interest and keep the market from being so tight, but I am not expecting anything that high off the opening with no news due out in the pre market.
On futures the volume was split today with the ES and NQ lower and TF higher then Tuesday's. Little lackluster with the mid day chop and that sucked the excitement right out of the Es and NQ. The pivots did not test today and that means Wednesday they are more likely to be something we see multiple times. The NQ and TF still no test into the weekly pivot so keep an eye on that if we come off the ledge of this channel to the downside. The ES did clear 1064 today and that still leaves us to look for 1076.75 area to come.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Wednesday 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 2:15 FOMC Statement, 2:15 Federal Funds Rate. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 Existing Home Sales, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, Day 1 G20 meeting. Friday 8:30 Core Durable Goods Orders, 8:30 Durable Goods Orders, 9:55 Revised Univ Of Michigan, 9:55 Univ Of Mich Consumer Sentiment, 10:00 New Home Sales, Day 2 G20 meeting.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Wednesday pre market AZO, GIS, and after the bell BBBY, PAYX, RHT. Thursday pre market AM, RAD, SCS, TXI and after the bell COMS, FINL, RIMM. Friday pre market KBH and nothing after the bell.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Wednesday's pivot 1066, weekly pivot 1052.75. Intraday support: 1064.75, 1062.75, 1058.50, 1055.50, 1052, 1046 fills gap, 1039.25 Resistance: 1067.25-1069-1071.50, 1076.75, 1082.25, 1086.25
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
Sep 21, 2009
Monday ended the day on a split note, the Nasdaq 100 and Nas Composite closed green and the S&P 500 and Dow closed red. All indexes were very flat by days end, but it was just enough to tip the scale in split fashion. The volume fell off on the NYSE and Nasdaq today to come in lower than Friday's. Futures volume was split with the ES and TF lower and NQ higher on the day than Friday. The VIX closed the day at 23.98 and the TRIN at .78 bullish on the day. Gold closed down $5.40 at $1004.90 and oil down $2.33 at $69.71 a barrel.
Monday opened weak and the reluctant dip buyers came in slowly again. The volume still bothers me on this dip buying and if something could melt up, that is what it is doing. Obviously nothing can melt up, but certainly feels like a slow melt with the pace and lack of conviction we are seeing. Some of that is hang over from expiration on Friday and some of it is apprehension ahead of the two day Fed meeting that starts Tuesday. So hang in there and be selective on setups.
Daily with the split we had between the green Nasdaq and then SPX and Dow red, isn't that unusual. However, what isn't split is indicators on the daily charts. Stochastics turned down, CCI dropped, RSI slight drop and the MACD lines are narrowing on all the indexes. That means we have divergence on the daily NDX and COMPX with indicators dropping and price rising. The NDX and COMPX had new intraday and new closing highs on the year. SPX and Dow did not follow the leader and come along, banks and oil held the indexes off those highs. Beside that little red flag we have nothing to focus on tonight. The 65 minute charts on each index are FLAT, no hint at all for us. Technically the market is not overbought and yes we would like a correction, but with month end around the corner and Fed this week, that maybe slow to come.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Tuesday 10:00 HPI, 10:00 Richmond Manufacturing Index. Wednesday 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 2:15 FOMC Statement, 2:15 Federal Funds Rate. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 Existing Home Sales, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, Day 1 G20 meeting. Friday 8:30 Core Durable Goods Orders, 8:30 Durable Goods Orders, 9:55 Revised Univ Of Michigan, 9:55 Univ Of Mich Consumer Sentiment, 10:00 New Home Sales, Day 2 G20 meeting.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Tuesday pre market KMX, CCL, FDS and after the bell AIR. Wednesday pre market AZO, GIS, and after the bell BBBY, PAYX, RHT. Thursday pre market AM, RAD, SCS, TXI and after the bell COMS, FINL, RIMM. Friday pre market KBH and nothing after the bell.
NDX (Nasdaq 100) closed +6.34 at 1731.58. Support: 1711.36, 1696.76, 1678.49, 1643.38. Resistance: 1750.29, 1781.28 61.8% weekly.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
Sep 20, 2009
Friday left the bulls with another win and a week with gains across the broader markets. Friday's volume on the NYSE and Nasdaq came in higher than Thursday, to leave an accumulation day. Futures however came in under Thursday's volume and split on the days close. The ES and TF closed red while the NQ closed green, very modest losses and gains though. The inside didn't do a lot for movement, but did leave the market wound for a move into next week. The TRIN closed at 1.30, bearish and the VIX at 23.92 up 27 cents. Gold closed down $3.20 at $1010.30 and oil down 48 cents to $72.95 a barrel.
The weekly charts on the COMPX, NDX, SPX and Dow all are moving into the upper Bollinger band which is still pointed up. NDX and COMPX have the RSI at 74, stochastics at 93 with the lines together flat, CCI 124ish and last weeks move with a small marubozu candle. SPX and Dow also with the marubozu candle, but some divergence showing up. The Stochastics turning down and the CCI did too, but with price moving higher on the week we'll have to watch that carefully into the upcoming week. It can continue to diverge or we'll see it pullback. The Nasdaq doesn't have the same look so we continue to look at tech for movement off the highs. Hardware is showing some signs of a pullback after Thursday and Friday, but the SOX remains in a high level channel digesting the move up.
Into Monday things maybe quiet, even with Thursday and Friday's narrow range action. Monday may deliver more of the same because we have a Fed meeting this week and that can slow down movement until it is behind us. We'll bracket the range from Friday, which was very narrow, then play the break. It could break both sides and still keep us in a tighter range. So don't get caught with a bias until we get through Wednesday's Fed announcement. The 65 minute was tired Friday at the close, but that will need to confirm a pullback in Monday's opening hour to show us that direction.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Monday 10:00 CB Leading Index, Tuesday 10:00 HPI, 10:00 Richmond Manufacturing Index. Wednesday 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 2:15 FOMC Statement, 2:15 Federal Funds Rate. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 Existing Home Sales, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, Day 1 G20 meeting. Friday 8:30 Core Durable Goods Orders, 8:30 Durable Goods Orders, 9:55 Revised Univ Of Michigan, 9:55 Univ Of Mich Consumer Sentiment, 10:00 New Home Sales, Day 2 G20 meeting.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Monday pre market LEN, SCHL, WAG, and after the bell SNX. Tuesday pre market KMX, CCL, FDS and after the bell AIR. Wednesday pre market AZO, GIS, and after the bell BBBY, PAYX, RHT. Thursday pre market AM, RAD, SCS, TXI and after the bell COMS, FINL, RIMM. Friday pre market KBH and nothing after the bell.
COMPX (Nasdaq Composite) closed +6.11 at 2132.86. Support: 2112.42, 2095.02, 2070.84 38.2%-2065.80. Resistance: 2156.43, 2171.80, 2251.84 61.8%.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
Sep 17, 2009
Thursday a narrow range day fell early in the day, but recovered to mid level by days end. A slightly red close on the indexes and volume for the NYSE and Nasdaq fell off. Futures saw an increase in volume on the ES, NQ and the ER was down slightly from yesterdays. Overall it was just a digestive day on the market. The VIX closed at 23.62, just 7 cents under yesterday's close, quiet day there too. The TRIN closed at 1.19, not real bearish but over 1.00 so some bearish tone in there. Gold fell $6.70 to $1013.50 and oil down 7 cents to $72.14 a barrel.
Pretty quiet close on the day left us sitting neutral. The opening did complete the ABC pattern on the 60 minute charts that I wrote about last night. C leg did get a spike off the economic data, but we pulled in and now sit neutral. So ABC's can retest that high or see a lower high, that is what we look for into Friday. Lower high would be my preference to see us pullback through today's low and get us into 38.2% support. But because it is quadruple witching the may maybe a little abnormal. So give it time to show us something and tip the scale. IF we break Thursday's highs, we are more likely to see 5 waves, not just the 3 from the ABC pattern. Which leaves Thursday's high as key for us to watch and look at carefully to stay out of the way of the run-away train. Usually expiration day is a tug of war, decent volume but no range. So we maybe on ice for movement until next week. We have a Fed meeting next week the market will start thinking about now too.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Friday nothing due out but it is quadruple witching expiration. Monday 10:00 CB Leading Index, Tuesday 10:00 HPI, 10:00 Richmond Manufacturing Index. Wednesday 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 2:15 FOMC Statement, 2:15 Federal Funds Rate. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 Existing Home Sales, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, Day 1 G20 meeting. Friday 8:30 Core Durable Goods Orders, 8:30 Durable Goods Orders, 9:55 Revised Univ Of Michigan, 9:55 Univ Of Mich Consumer Sentiment, 10:00 New Home Sales, Day 2 G20 meeting.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Friday nothing due. Monday pre market LEN, SCHL, WAG, and after the bell SNX. Tuesday pre market KMX, CCL, FDS and after the bell AIR. Wednesday pre market AZO, GIS, and after the bell BBBY, PAYX, RHT. Thursday pre market AM, RAD, SCS, TXI and after the bell COMS, FINL, RIMM. Friday pre market KBH and nothing after the bell.
SPX (S&P 500) closed -3.27 at 1065.49. Support: 1050.19, 1043.77, 1024.62. Resistance: 1070.39, 1096.82, 1121.44 50% weekly.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
Sep 16, 2009
Wednesday delivered another win for the bulls and volume came in again. Second consecutive accumulation day, while eight of the last ten days have closed higher, the market continues to run higher. The TRIN closed at .88, finally a bullish day to support the price action. The volatility (VIX) closed higher at 23.69 (+.27). Gold and oil closed at +13.90 (1020.20) and +1.58 (72.51) on the day.
The bulls continue to leave us thinking the shallow pullbacks are all we will ever get. However, as soon as everyone stops looking for it, we'll get it. With volume piling in Tuesday and Wednesday we are seeing some chasing most likely and also a product of quadruple witching action. Volume typically increases throughout the week of expiration, particularly on quadruple witching over just double expirations.
Nas Composite, Nas 100, S&P 500, and the Dow all have a RSI of 71-74 and stochastics at 95-99, to go with those lofty levels is overshooting the upper Bollinger band. The sooner the market works off those bollingers the easier it will be move, we won't have that serious chop and huge lull mid day that extends into late day to bore us to death. The market can pullback to work off this level or move in a narrow range sideways, everyone can hold their breath for that pullback! To go with the daily the 65 minute chart on each index the RSI is mid 80's and stochastics mid 90's. The final 65 minutes of the day left hanging man candle on each index. That of course needs confirmation ( don't I say that every night lately and we have yet to get it) to pull the market back and find some reversal. If it doesn't confirm we look for continuation to the upside.
Along with all the above, the ES, NQ and TF all have been forming ABC patterns on the 60 minute. For the ES the A leg started on 9/3 with a low at 987 and we've moved up from there. The chart below marks the A and B leg, the C leg's up part is now to be watched for the pullback part to complete that pattern. IF we get that for symmetry the pullback could be 5-10 points and then either retest today's high or put in a slightly lower high to reverse the action. That is what we watch going into Thursday. I wouldn't want to watch this pattern if the ES moves another 5-7 points to the upside without that pullback. Otherwise the symmetry will be absent and that takes the steam out of the pattern for a move.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Thursday 8:30 Building Permits, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Housing Starts, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, Friday nothing due out
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Thursday pre market DFS, FDX, PIR, and after the bell PALM, TSCM. Friday nothing due.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Thursday's pivot 1058.50, weekly pivot 1029.75. Intraday support: 1056.75, 1052.50, 1050.75 38.2%-1049.50, 1046 fills gap Resistance: 1063.50, 1071.25, 1074.75, 1086.25
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
Sep 15, 2009
Tuesday closed the day green across the board on the major indexes and volume increased today. An accumulation day while the market is making new highs on the year for the major indexes is what the bulls want to see regularly. The TRIN closed at 1.69, very high for a market rising with that bearish of a TRIN. The VIX closed at 23.32 down .44 on the day. Gold closed up $5.20 at $1006.30 and oil up $1.92 at $70.78 a barrel.
Nasdaq Composite closed at 97 stochastics, RSI at 70, both overbought and the CCI dropped to close with divergence. Nas 100 (NDX) closed at 97.54 stochastics, RSI 70 and again like the COMPX with CCI divergence. The MACD is still flat on both indexes and into the upper Bollinger. S&P 500 (SPX) is still under the upper Bollinger, stochastics at 94.76, flat CCI sitting just over 100 line for support and RSI at 68. The Dow finally joined the other 3 indexes to close at new highs on the year, but all closed off the intraday high, which was also new highs on the year. The Dow's daily chart is still under the upper Bollinger, stochastics at 92, CCI just over 100 line support and the RSI is only 67. Leaving the SPX and Dow lagging the Nasdaq indexes slightly and not as overbought.
The day closed the 65 minute on each index with a shooting star, we'll see into tomorrow's opening if that gets confirmed in the first 65 minutes. Key data is due out Wednesday in the pre market and that is likely to shake things up before we even open. Then we will settle and look for that first candle to set the tone on the day. Monday was a trend day up, Tuesday another up day, Wednesday we need to see something on the bears or the bulls will keep pushing and crawling higher on these tiny pullbacks. Which leaves us to stay on the upside and watch for the bears to send smoke signals to those of us WAITING on a good pullback.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Wednesday 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 CPI, 8:30 Current Account, 9:00 TIC Long Term Purchases, 9:15 Capacity Utilization Rate, 9:15 Industrial Production, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 1:00 NAHB Housing Market Index, Thursday 8:30 Building Permits, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Housing Starts, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, Friday nothing due out
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Wednesday pre market ZLC, and after the bell APOG, CKR, ORCL. Thursday pre market DFS, FDX, PIR, and after the bell PALM, TSCM. Friday nothing due.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
Sep 14, 2009
Monday brought us a weak opening that was quickly pushed aside to see the market lift into positive territory and close near the highs. The markets volume was lighter on the NYSE and Nasdaq than Friday's, but futures came in heavier. The VIX did not confirm Friday's hammer by closing lower at 23.86. The TRIN kept neutral by closing at .92. Gold closed down $5.40 at $1001 an ounce and oil was down 40 cents to $68.85 a barrel.
The Nasdaq Composite, Nas 100 and S&P 500 closed at new highs for the year, the Dow is still just under the years highs. On the daily chart there is divergence on the daily CCI and RSI on each broader index, the stochastics is high 90's on the COMPX, NDX and SPX, the Dow is still lower 90's. The Nasdaq is into the upper Bollinger, the SPX and Dow sit just under, but it is still pointed up and open for a push. Brokers and hardware also closed at new highs on the year, banks, the SOX sits just off the highs for the year and banks are lagging back still.
Just when we are sure a weak opening will let the market rest, it finds the dip buyers and off to the races. Tuesday may lead to more of the same, it is the tone, shallow pullbacks and keep pushing higher. As I pointed out there is divergence on the daily charts, we can move in range to work that off, or see more of it. It does not mean we pullback, I would like to see that but there is no sign of that coming our way still. Which means we remain neutral and keep on our toes. The dollar did show some life as gold pulled off today, so we'll keep watch for our UUP position to move. For futures the ES did test the weekly pivot off the opening, the NQ and TF did not. We'll watch for the NQ to still test that weekly pivot, which would require a pullback.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Tuesday 8:30 Core Retail Sales, 8:30 PPI, 8:30 Retail Sales, 8:30 Core PPI, 8:30 Empire State Manufacturing Index, 10:00 Business Inventories, 10:00 IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, Wednesday 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 CPI, 8:30 Current Account, 9:00 TIC Long Term Purchases, 9:15 Capacity Utilization Rate, 9:15 Industrial Production, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 1:00 NAHB Housing Market Index, Thursday 8:30 Building Permits, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Housing Starts, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, Friday nothing due out
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Tuesday pre market BBY, GIGM, KR and after the bell ADBE. Wednesday pre market ZLC, and after the bell APOG, CKR, ORCL. Thursday pre market DFS, FDX, PIR, and after the bell PALM, TSCM. Friday nothing due.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Tuesday's pivot 1039.50, weekly pivot 1029.75. Intraday support: 1039.25, 1035.50, 1032.75, 1029.50, 1023, 1016.25. Resistance: 1047, 1050-1051.50, 1057.50,1063.50
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
Sep 13, 2009
Friday closed the week modestly red on lighter volume for the NYSE and Nasdaq. Futures continued the repositioning from rollover and increased volume, which will lead into next week starting to see the volatility into Friday's quadruple expiration. The TRIN closed at 1.25 bearish and the VIX at 24.15 after hitting a low on the year at 22.48. Gold closed up $9.40 to $1006.20 and oil down $2.72 at $69.22 a barrel.
Friday's losses didn't hurt the weeks gains, which were 1.7% on the Dow, Nasdaq 3.1% and the S&P 500 up 2.6% on the week. September is starting on firm ground and will get through quadruple witching this week, early. Expiration is early which can have very mixed outcomes. No real trend on expirations other than we are likely to see some of everything from zig-zag, trend, reversal days and probably a digestive day mixed in there.
Weekly charts are still climbing on the indicators, RSI, Stochastics, MACD, CCI all still headed north. Daily charts stochastics are into the 90's, CCI is between 150-175, MACD is pointed up but not real open and RSI mid 60's across the broader markets. Moving averages (ma's) are still in bullish order and the market sits above the shortest moving average I watch (10dma). The broader markets are into the upper Bollinger band, which will be resistance. I took a close look at the semiconductors (SOX) and hardware (HWI), because of the tech participation and strength in the Nasdaq last week. The SOX left a bearish engulfing candle Friday, trying to turn down on the stochastics, RSI turned down, CCI turned down and now we need confirmation. A pullback there is likely to be just enough to pause the market for a pullback early this week.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Monday 12:30 FOMC Member Lacker Speaks, 3:50 FOMC Member Yellen Speaks, Tuesday 8:30 Core Retail Sales, 8:30 PPI, 8:30 Retail Sales, 8:30 Core PPI, 8:30 Empire State Manufacturing Index, 10:00 Business Inventories, 10:00 IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, Wednesday 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 CPI, 8:30 Current Account, 9:00 TIC Long Term Purchases, 9:15 Capacity Utilization Rate, 9:15 Industrial Production, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 1:00 NAHB Housing Market Index, Thursday 8:30 Building Permits, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Housing Starts, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, Friday nothing due out
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Monday pre market FMCN, SCMR and after the bell PLL. Tuesday pre market BBY, GIGM, KR and after the bell ADBE. Wednesday pre market ZLC, and after the bell APOG, CKR, ORCL. Thursday pre market DFS, FDX, PIR, and after the bell PALM, TSCM. Friday nothing due.
SOX (semiconductor) closed -4.58 at 321.24. Support: 320.56, 319.09, 316.32, 314.52. Resistance: 323.32, 327.31, 328.99, 330.73, 333.53, 334.03
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
Sep 10, 2009
Thursday's lift left the market with new highs on the year for the Nas Composite, Nas 100, S&P 500 and the Dow tapped a new high on the year, but didn't close over 9630.20 8/28 intraday high, but did close at a new closing high on the year. Everyone of you know that doesn't matter, the market is zooming along in small steps. I don't get caught up on new highs intraday and closing, fact of the matter is we sit at resistance at lofty levels. September is buzzing and today made for five consecutive up days and 5 of the last 7 have been up for September.
Intraday we are overbought and very close on the daily to be overbought. I took a peak at the weekly charts, even though we still have one day yet to trade, everything is fine there other than we have a very flat stochastics in the mid 90's. Friday the market has a lot to think about, will we shoot up another step to blow the week up, or will folks start to think profit taking. The market is like walking on ice, eventually you will slip. Some correction is due, but I keep saying it over and over, don't pick a top. Keep it tight intraday and let the market guide us, I'm struggling with the opens we've had this week to get on board and stay there, but be persistent and hang in there. You wait for the right spot and sit until it comes and be patient when it arrives, is ALL we can do.
Data at 9:55 may slow that first half hour down, keep that range in mind as we get to 10 for direction. Semi's continue to be strong and that daily chart is in the nosebleed section and in need of a rest. Banks are stuck in such a narrow range any move there will shake the SPX. Brokers left the banks behind and moved into new highs for the year and hardware joined the party at new highs for the year. Internets and Telecom had big days and also new highs on the year, internets (INX) have gapped up for three days and had big intraday moves this week. ANY of these sectors get a push down the indexes will take a breath. Until then the bulls are winning and taking charge to keep September moving up.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Friday 8:30 Import Prices, 9:55 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, 10:00 Wholesale Inventories, 2:00 Federal Budget Balance. Monday 12:30 FOMC Member Lacker Speaks, 3:50 FOMC Member Yellen Speaks, Tuesday 8:30 Core Retail Sales, 8:30 PPI, 8:30 Retail Sales, 8:30 Core PPI, 8:30 Empire State Manufacturing Index, 10:00 Business Inventories, 10:00 IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, Wednesday 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 CPI, 8:30 Current Account, 9:00 TIC Long Term Purchases, 9:15 Capacity Utilization Rate, 9:15 Industrial Production, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 1:00 NAHB Housing Market Index, Thursday 8:30 Building Permits, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Housing Starts, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, Friday nothing due out
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Friday pre market HRB and nothing after the bell.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Friday's pivot 1033.25, weekly pivot 1012. Intraday support: 1032.75, 1029, 1026, 1022.50-1021.75, 1019.25, 1015.75, 1013. Resistance: 1042.75, 1047, 1050, 1063.50
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
Sep 9, 2009
Wednesday another day of gains for the broader markets and on mixed volume. The NYSE was lighter volume, Nasdaq heavier volume and all futures were heavier volume. The TRIN closed at 1.27, still too high for this bullish price action. The VIX closed at 24.32, still off the years lows at 23.00 but it is the lowest close since August 14th. Gold pulled off its rally to close at $997.30 down $2.50 and oil up 39 cents to close at $71.49 a barrel.
The Nas Composite closed into the upper Bollinger on the daily chart and also closed just over the prior 2059.48 highs on August 28th for new highs on the year. The Nasdaq 100 also put in new highs on the year over the prior 1668.01 and into the upper Bollinger. Coming into Wednesday we were looking for the hanging men candles on the Nasdaq to pull us in, that didn't happen so another up day came instead to void those candles. The S&P 500 sits just under the 1039.47 8/28 highs by 6 points. The Dow is sitting just shy of the 9630.20 highs from August 28th and will need the help of a few laggards to get there early tomorrow for 83 points.
Although the Nasdaq and the SOX are into the upper Bollinger, they aren't overbought on any other indicator on the daily or intraday charts. The Sox did close with divergence and hardware the other sector of strength behind the Nasdaq's advance will be watched into Thursday. HWI (hardware) closed the day slightly red, it was a sell the news off the Apple conference. Internets and Telecom are also showing signs of weakness, leaving the SOX as the strong leader and into resistance after a lofty lift over the past four sessions. On the financial side of the market we have brokers into the 2009 highs and banks lagging back off the 48.16 8/24 2009 highs after closing at 45.71.
Thursday will start with early data, the biggest release of the week so far. Thursday will also bring us rollover on futures. Futures will rollover to December (Z), which splits the volume and leaves us with a slow opening usually. Be sure you have changed your charts and trading platform to reflect the December contract. The current September (U) will expire on Friday the 18th, but we'll start trading December upon Thursdays opening.
We'll look for any weakness for a pullback, the bulls are once again not pulling back and holding the market hostage in a mid day channel before it advances late day. I will watch the Nasdaq for guiding the rest of the market, hitting those new highs for the year today will need to see continuation or we'll tumble quickly. The last new high on the 28th did sell off for several days and the prior years high was on 4th also sold off the following day. That doesn't mean history will repeat itself, but look for a refueling pullback with the sign of any weakness.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Thursday 8:30 Trade Balance, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:30 Nat Gas Storage, 11:00 Crude Oil Inventories, 12:30 FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks, Friday 8:30 Import Prices, 9:55 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, 10:00 Wholesale Inventories, 2:00 Federal Budget Balance.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Thursday pre market CIEN, MOV and after the bell COO, SNDA, ULTA. Friday pre market HRB and nothing after the bell.
COMPX (Nasdaq Composite) closed +22.62 at 2060.39. Support: 2025.20, 1999.78, 1981.69, 1936.73 38.2%. Resistance: 2063.52 50% weekly, 2102.83-2107.96, 2156.43
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
Sep 8, 2009
Tuesday started the week off with a very narrow range, but a win for the bulls. Volume was higher on the NYSE and Nasdaq than Friday's, but futures fell short of outpacing Friday's volume. The TRIN closed at 1.63 and the VIX at 25.65. Gold closed up $2.80 at $999.50 and oil pushed higher to $71.19 +2.17 on the day.
The market hasn't seen a range this narrow since 7/17 on the Nas Composite, 12/26 on the NDX, 7/17 on the SPX, and 9/2 on the Dow. These winding days are dull, but we did have some movement, just very limited. They do come out of the range and move with all this digestion. The market is poised under the 8/28 highs, which are also the highs for 2009, this is a big spot to focus on. (Nas Composite 2059.48, NDX 1668.01, SPX 1039.47 and Dow 9630.20) The banks were a drag on the SPX and Dow today, so they have some room as the Nasdaq sits just under that resistance. The SPX and Dow opened at one side and closed at the other, still very narrow. However, the Nasdaq 100 and composite closed with hanging men, leaving that long lower shadow.
Into Wednesday it will be pretty easy to watch Tuesday's range for a break. Bracketing is what we can do on digestive days and let the break of the range guide us. Wednesday it will be easy to come out of this range because it is so small. We don't have any early data to help move the market and the Beige Book at 2 is sometimes a mover, but that time after lunch has been really dead. Now that we are into September and post holiday the market will liven up. Thursday is rollover for futures, so Wednesday and Thursday volume should be picking up to get things rolled and positioned.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Wednesday 8:00 FOMC Member Evans Speaks, 2:00 Beige Book, Thursday 8:30 Trade Balance, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:30 Nat Gas Storage, 11:00 Crude Oil Inventories, 12:30 FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks, Friday 8:30 Import Prices, 9:55 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, 10:00 Wholesale Inventories, 2:00 Federal Budget Balance.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Wednesday pre market JOYG and after the bell HOV, MATK. Thursday pre market CIEN, MOV and after the bell COO, SNDA, ULTA. Friday pre market HRB and nothing after the bell.
NQ (Nas 100 e-mini) Wednesday's pivot 1651, weekly pivot 1623.50. Support: 1643, 1636.50 gap fill, 1628.50, 1620.25. Resistance: 1655.25, 1660, 1664-1665, 1668.75, 1677
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
Sep 7, 2009
Friday closed the day and the summer trading, which we are happy to see end. The broader markets were green across the board with lighter volume on the NYSE and Nasdaq. Futures were higher on the day for volume and price. Gold closed down .70 at $997 and oil up 1 cent to $67.97 a barrel.. The TRIN remained flat throughout most of the day closing at .64 and the VIX at 25.26.
The indexes hit new highs on the year August 28th, the Dow was on the 25th. This past week traded under that level and closed just off the weeks highs. Leaving us real neutral to kick off the fall trading. Summer, particularly this past three week was very trying and range bound. I'm glad to see it behind us and to see what September brings. A lot of the speculation on September being a hard month on the markets, but we aren't going to get caught up in that hype. A correction would be healthy and is still likely to come. Friday left us still setting over 38.2% supports and not far off the 50dma's. The 38.2% support on the leg up off the July 8ths lows are: Dow 9034.47, COMPX 1932.49, 1563.67 NDX, and SPX 974.47. The 50dma's are also nearing as we pullback and the 8/17 swing lows.
Tuesday the opening is likely to be slow, that Labor Day hang over. Friday and the shortened globex session on Monday advanced the market which is very questionable. Moves like this is very suspect leading into three day weekends. So don't get quick on the trigger until we see the opening and any correction on this advance. Watch for the Nasdaq Composite into 2063.52, Nas 100 into 1639.82, S&P 500 1048 and 1121.44, and the Dow 9794 and onto 10334. That will be the key level overhead, a break out of last weeks range for either the bulls or bears is likely to tip our hand. I don't want to focus on a corrective move, because the upside has been a strong trend. Trend correct and given the range we've stay in for the past three weeks the market is ready to expand. September will change the range and rotate the market into higher levels or let us see the correction, that will bring even more uncertainty. The panic sell button has been in storage, so nothing wants to tip that hand. Watch for the 38.2% levels under us and the years highs and onto the levels I outlined to help the market break the range into next week.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Monday US Markets are closed for holiday, Tuesday 3:00 Consumer Credit, Wednesday 8:00 FOMC Member Evans Speaks, 2:00 Beige Book, Thursday 8:30 Trade Balance, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:30 Nat Gas Storage, 11:00 Crude Oil Inventories, 12:30 FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks, Friday 8:30 Import Prices, 9:55 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, 10:00 Wholesale Inventories, 2:00 Federal Budget Balance.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Monday US markets closed, Tuesday pre market TUTR and after the bell SEAC, TTWO, PAY. Wednesday pre market JOYG and after the bell HOV, MATK. Thursday pre market CIEN, MOV and after the bell COO, SNDA, ULTA. Friday pre market HRB and nothing after the bell.
COMPX (Nasdaq Composite) closed +35.58 at 2018.78. Support: 1957.43, 1932.49 38.2%- 1932.39 50dma, 1893.26. Resistance: 2020.73, 2037.77, 2063.52 50% on weekly
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
Sep 3, 2009
Thursday closed the day with a modest win, erasing yesterday's losses but not gaining any real ground after Tuesday's drop. Volume was mixed across the board with the NYSE lower, Nasdaq higher and futures had the ES and NQ lower and TF higher. The TRIN closed at .62 and the VIX at 27.10. Gold rallied again today closing up $19.50 at $998 and oil down 13 cents to $67.92 a barrel.
Wednesday and Thursday left the market in a very narrow range, that is normal leading into a long weekend, but also after a big move like the market saw on Tuesday's drop. Digesting the move is needed to then setup for the next move, which is likely to be after Labor Day. Friday has data leading into the day, but nothing after that 8:30 release. Which will leave us with movement in the first 60-90 minutes and probably chop to follow. Thursday did the same thing, moved early and then nothing until the final 30 minutes. This will pass and improve after the holiday most likely. The indexes still set over 38.2% supports and not far off the 50dma's. The 38.2% support on the leg up off the July 8ths lows are: Dow 9034.47, COMPX 1932.49, 1563.67 NDX, and SPX 974.47. The 50dma's are also nearing as we pullback and the 8/17 swing lows.
Bracketing the last two days range is where to look for a break to find our next move. However, don't expect to see a lot of continuation until after Labor Day and then we will see something to sink our teeth in. Friday's ahead of a holiday are rarely great trading days, there will be something but it is not a time to load the boat and it is not a time to overtrade or over think what is happening. You can become frustrated or you can just acknowledge the fact it is not a day to do a lot unless we love it. Next week things will start to get back to normal and the market will setup plenty, WAIT for it!
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Friday 8:30 NonFarm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings. Monday US Markets are closed for holiday, Tuesday 3:00 Consumer Credit, Wednesday 8:00 FOMC Member Evans Speaks, 2:00 Beige Book, Thursday 8:30 Trade Balance, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:30 Nat Gas Storage, 11:00 Crude Oil Inventories, 12:30 FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks, Friday 8:30 Import Prices, 9:55 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, 10:00 Wholesale Inventories, 2:00 Federal Budget Balance.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Friday pre market HRB and nothing after the bell.
SPX (S&P 500) closed +8.49 at 1003.24. Support: 991.55, 974.47 38.2%, 954.39. Resistance: 1010.12, 1021.33, 1029.31, 1039.47.
INDU (Dow) closed +63.94 at 9344.61. Support: 9226.45, 9116.52, 9034.47 38.2%. Resistance: 9402.84, 9489.66, 9551.47.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
Sep 2, 2009
Wednesday was a meandering day in a very narrow range to digest Tuesday's drop. Volume fell off to leave us with lackluster action and no conviction throughout the afternoon. The TRIN managed to close at .88 where it sat for hours in the bulls territory. The VIX closed at 28.97, also a tight day with only 1.16 range. Gold rallied to close up $22.00 at $978.50 and oil closed unchanged on the day at $68.05 a barrel.
The day lost a modest amount of ground to close just under yesterdays range. Overall not much changed on in the market today. Each index (NDX, COMPX, SPX, Dow) all closed with the CCI just into negative territory, MACD trying to cross down, Stochastics down with the lines open, RSI also pointed down. All also closed under the 10dma and 20dema. Each index is just over 38.2% support on the leg up off the July 8ths lows The Dow 9034.47, COMPX 1932.49, 1563.67 NDX, and SPX 974.47 are the levels to watch for support. 50dma's are also nearing as we pullback and the 8/17 swing lows. Leaving support just under us and plenty to test with another drop. Tuesday's big drop just put us into a do nothing digestive range on Wednesday. Which winds us to move into Thursday and Friday.
Early data on Thursday will set the tone and then into 10 for additional data. The market is still not reacting to good data and working at this correction off the highs instead. A weak opening should be watched carefully for a reversal for some upside retracement. A stronger opening could hold us hostage until some conviction is worked out and we manage to move back to about half of Tuesday's drop for a retest. I'm pretty neutral after today, because there isn't much to make of this day and where we sit. We are in limbo and need that last drop to get to 38.2% or we need to retest at least half of Tuesday's drop to see the market turn down and get to the 38.2% supports under us.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 ISM Non Manufacturing PMI, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 NonFarm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Thursday pre market CIEN, FLOW, MOV, SCMR and after the bell COO, SNDA, ULTA, WIND. Friday pre market HRB and nothing after the bell.
SPX (S&P 500) closed -3.29 at 994.75. Support: 991.55, 974.47 38.2%, 954.39. Resistance: 1010.12, 1021.33, 1029.31, 1039.47.
INDU (Dow) closed -29.93 at 9280.67. Support: 9226.45, 9116.52, 9034.47 38.2%. Resistance: 9402.84, 9489.66, 9551.47.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
Sep 1, 2009
Tuesday left a red mark across the markets on higher volume, for distribution days on the NYSE, Nasdaq and all futures. Market breadth was also harsh throughout the day with a heavy A/D and U/D, with a closing TRIN at 3.35 very bearish. The VIX closed at 29.15, highest level we've seen since July 13th. Gold closed down $3.50 at $957 and oil down $1.69 to $68.27 a barrel.
Each index (NDX, COMPX, SPX, Dow) all closed with the CCI just into negative territory, MACD trying to cross down, Stochastics down with the lines open, RSI also pointed down. All also closed under the 10dma and 20dema. Each index is just over 38.2% support on the leg up off the July 8ths lows The Dow 9034.47, COMPX 1932.49, 1563.67 NDX, and SPX 974.47 are the levels to watch for support. 50dma's are also nearing as we pullback and the 8/17 swing lows. For plenty of near term support on the indexes.
Futures traded into the weekly pivots and daily today. Which clears that up early in our week and leaves us now to look into what Wednesday will bring. With the extreme 3.35 TRIN, overbought and divergence signals on the 65 minute charts on indexes and 60 minute futures. We look for some retracement into Wednesday morning. Like to see 1011.75 area on the ES and 1620.25 on the NQ to retest levels overhead and then resume the selling. Since the ES took out 1014.5 and the NQ 1602.25 we look for further downside yet to come after a retracement. 989 should provide support on the ES and if that cannot hold onto 975.5 swing low is very possible. The NQ 1584.25 and onto 1561.25. Each index has 38.2% support outlined above, that will be first support and if those break down the market is not going to be able to keep profit takers from the panic button.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Wednesday 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts, 8:15 ADP Non Farm Employment Change, 8:30 Revised Nonfarm Productivity, 8:30 Revised Unit Labor, 10:00 Factory Orders, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 11:30 FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks, 2:00 FOMC Meeting Minutes. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 ISM Non Manufacturing PMI, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 NonFarm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Wednesday pre market JOYG, ZLC and after the bell PSS, HOV,MATK. Thursday pre market CIEN, FLOW, MOV, SCMR and after the bell COO, SNDA, ULTA, WIND. Friday pre market HRB and nothing after the bell.
COMPX (Nasdaq Composite) closed -40.17 at 1968.89. Support: 1957.43, 1932.49 38.2%, 1920.75 50dma, 1893.26. Resistance: 2001.39, 2023.57, 2039.36, 2063.52 50% on weekly
SPX (S&P 500) closed -22.58 at 998.04. Support: 991.55, 974.47 38.2%, 954.39. Resistance: 1012.78, 1022.97, 1030.23, 1039.47.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
Aug 31, 2009
Monday started the day weak and ended about mid range still red across the broader markets. Volume came in mixed with the NYSE, ES and TF all higher than Friday and the Nasdaq along with the NQ lighter than Friday. The TRIN closed bearish at 1.55 and the VIX closed at 26.15 up $1.25. Gold closed the day up $12.20 at $959.50 and oil up 24 cents to $74.73 a barrel.
Monday delivered a good Chicago PMI number and the market did not respond, another sign we are a little tired. The range was tight on the day and that held us in last weeks range, but at the bottom of it. There was a little more weight on the market to tip the stochastics down, CCI is under 100 line and headed to 0, RSI moving lower and MACD is very flat.
Friday left a shooting star on the Semi's, Hardware and Internet sectors, today closing lower to confirm those reversal candles. That is setup to take the wind out of the sails on the Nasdaq side of the market. The brokers offset some of the markets weakness today to close on the highs, but with a hanging man, Tuesday a lower close would setup a reversal. Banks did not take out the 8/24 highs, which could setup a slightly lower high. This is leaving each key sector and Index setting up the ground work for a possible pullback.
Futures did not test the daily or weekly pivots today. Fairly unusual to not test the daily so look for Tuesday to be active on the ES around 1018.5, NQ 1624.50 and TF 571.50. If the ES drops 1014.5 we will look down to 1000 level for a test. NQ drops Mondays 1615.75 low we look down into 1602.25. That would be a very corrective but levels as low as 972 and 1563 to still pull this horse back. This week is full of economic data but is also leading into a long weekend. Bonds close early Friday and it is likely to be very quiet after the opening. That leaves us with Tuesday-Thursday to find some volatility this week.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Tuesday 10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI, 10:00 Pending Home Sales, 10:00 Construction Spending, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing Prices, Vehicle Sales all day, Wednesday 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts, 8:15 ADP Non Farm Employment Change, 8:30 Revised Nonfarm Productivity, 8:30 Revised Unit Labor, 10:00 Factory Orders, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 11:30 FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks, 2:00 FOMC Meeting Minutes. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 ISM Non Manufacturing PMI, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 NonFarm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Tuesday pre market GIGM, TUTR and after the bell ADCT, SEAC, TTWO, PAY. Wednesday pre market JOYG, ZLC and after the bell PSS, HOV,MATK. Thursday pre market CIEN, FLOW, MOV, SCMR and after the bell COO, SNDA, ULTA, WIND. Friday pre market HRB and nothing after the bell.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Tuesday's pivot 1018.50, weekly pivot 1027, monthly pivot 947. Intraday support: 1014.50 38.2%, 1011.75, 1007.25, 1004.75 fills gap. Resistance: 1023, 1027.50, 1029, 1033.25, 1038.75, 1041
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
Aug 30, 2009
Friday closed the week mixed with the Nasdaq green and the S&P 500 along with the Dow red. Volume was pretty unchanged on the NYSE and higher on the Nasdaq over Thursday's action. The week closely marginally higher and a very narrow week. Friday's range was another day in the range we sat in all week. Good way to close out August in range and holding the months gains, which isn't likely to change on Monday (the last day of August). The TRIN closed at .63 bullish and the VIX at 24.66. Gold closed up $12.20 at $959.50 and oil up 24 cents at $72.73 a barrel.
The Dow traded over 9422 38.2% (off October 2007 highs to March 2009 lows) and back in the November 2008 range. The Nas Composite is into 2063.52 50% retracement on the Oct-March move for resistance. Nas 100 is into September 2008 highs and the 50% retracement as well. S&P 500 moved through 1014.14 38.2% and into the October 2008 range. On the daily charts the indexes still sit into the upper Bollinger and in a five day range, but also Friday put in new highs for the month, which we closed just off that level on each index. The bull didn't let the bears get hold for long, several tries and nothing followed through.
Monday I expect a slow opening with data at 9:45, after that we should move. Unless the data is disappointing, the market is likely to find a break out. We cleared those 38.2% and 50%, that still gives the bulls the upside fuel. Bad data would help a pullback in an orderly move. The week ahead leads into Labor day, I do expect volume to be alright, but direction could stay shaky this week as September gets underway. There is still a lot of top picking out there and when everyone is waiting on a pullback and expecting one. That is exactly when the market does not deliver one. The tone did back off the extreme bullishness last week, we sold on good data and we didn't see the big end of day buying sprees. That is hawkish for the pullback to come in, but I still can't do much other than wait and see. Very neutral tone and nothing to alter that until we see something that clears last weeks range with conviction.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Monday 9:45 Chicago PMI, Tuesday 10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI, 10:00 Pending Home Sales, 10:00 Construction Spending, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing Prices, Vehicle Sales all day, Wednesday 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts, 8:15 ADP Non Farm Employment Change, 8:30 Revised Nonfarm Productivity, 8:30 Revised Unit Labor, 10:00 Factory Orders, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 11:30 FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks, 2:00 FOMC Meeting Minutes. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 ISM Non Manufacturing PMI, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 NonFarm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Monday pre market JAVA and after the bell SINA. Tuesday pre market GIGM, TUTR and after the bell ADCT, SEAC, TTWO, PAY. Wednesday pre market JOYG, ZLC and after the bell PSS, HOV,MATK. Thursday pre market CIEN, FLOW, MOV, SCMR and after the bell COO, SNDA, ULTA, WIND. Friday pre market HRB and nothing after the bell.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Monday's pivot 1029.50, weekly pivot 1027, monthly pivot 947. Intraday support: 1019.75, 1014.50 38.2%, 1011.75, 1007.25, 1004.75 fills gap. Resistance: 1033.75, 1038.75, 1043.75-1044.50, 1049, 1052.25-1053.25
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
Aug 27, 2009
Thursday another modest win for the bulls, volume did participate today for accumulation days. The first hour sold off and fell through Wednesday's lows only to see the market rebounding and pulling in more dip buyers. The range is still narrow and in range, so we are stuck! The VIX closed at 24.68 and the TRIN at .49 bullish. Gold moved higher by $1.60 $947.40 an ounce and oil rallied when the market reversed to close up $1.08 at $72.51 a barrel.
The day closed with hanging men candles, they are a bearish candle. Even though that seem counterintuitive to what you think when you see the market push off the lows. However when it is in a trending market on the highs, it is bearish. The CCI dropped on each daily index despite the market closing higher for divergence, RSI is still flat, stochastics are still closed but no cross down sitting sideways and the MACD is a flat line as well. The market is still sitting in the range we've been in since last Friday. Going up a little and down a little intraday is like being a teeter totter, eventually an imbalance moves everything. If you are on the teeter totter you hope you aren't the one that gets slammed down and even the one on top flying off has some risk. The market is much like that, you watch your fingers and toes to avoid anything quick and disorderly. An orderly pullback will eventually come in or we will break the range for the next leg up. That isn't likely to be as orderly it very well may come in the way of a gap and run kind of day.
Into Friday the day starts early with data and likely to set the tone into the 9:55 data. The market has sold off on good data this week, but only to see support come in and reverse us. Bracketing Thursday's range is a good place to start to see which direction we move. The day should move early on and is likely to be dull as the day progresses. It is the last Friday of August and now we just have to count down to Labor day. However, I think we start to see some light in the tunnel next week given the busy calendar ahead and the positioning that will start to come in.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Friday 8:30 Core PCE Price Index, 8:30 Personal Spending, 8:30 Personal Income, 9:55 Revised UofM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Revised UoM Inflation Expectations. Monday 9:45 Chicago PMI, Tuesday 10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI, 10:00 Pending Home Sales, 10:00 Construction Spending, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing Prices, Vehicle Sales all day, Wednesday 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts, 8:15 ADP Non Farm Employment Change, 8:30 Revised Nonfarm Productivity, 8:30 Revised Unit Labor, 10:00 Factory Orders, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 11:30 FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks, 2:00 FOMC Meeting Minutes. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 ISM Non Manufacturing PMI, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 NonFarm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Friday pre market TIF and nothing after the bell.
NDX (Nasdaq 100) closed +3.97 at 1640.97. Support: 1620.06, 1598.33, 1582.85, 1555.78 38.2%. Resistance: 1650.60, 1676.12, 1694.79
SPX (S&P 500) closed +2.86 at 1030.98. Support: 1015.12, 1001.14, 991.18, 972.21 38.2%. Resistance: 1042.40, 1070.39, 1096.82, 1121.44 50% on weekly.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
Aug 26, 2009
Wednesday brought a modestly green day across the SPX, COMPX and Dow, leaving the NDX (Nas 100) with a slightly red day. Volume came in under Tuesday for a light volume day on the NYSE and the Nasdaq. The TRIN closed at 1.11 and the VIX at 24.95. The A/D and U/D lines remained neutral throughout the day with the flat TRIN but it was over 1 for the bears. Gold is unchanged on the day at $946 an ounce and oil down 67 cents at $71.38 a barrel.
The day closed with but yet another possible reversal candle, this market cannot get off the highs and come off. Today the door was open for the bears with the Nasdaq being weaker and falling, but once again the brakes came on and we pulled back up. Stochastics on the daily charts are now touching with all the congestion up here, the CCI is on 100 line, RSI is flat at 61-66 and the MACD is very flat on each index. Doesn't leave us with a lot to work with still until the market moves, we need a new high or low on the week to move things along. That would confirm these reversal candles or make them invalid. One way or the other, lets GOOOO! Moving averages remain in bullish order, upper Bollinger is still just overhead, the long we sit up here and chop the tighter the range. Winding for a move is the tone so far this week, but that is likely to change into Thursday and Friday.
Big data is due out on Thursday morning and even bigger on Friday. That should provide us with plenty of movement as we wind the week down. Futures have still not seen the weekly pivots under us, it is going to require a big drop to get there but would be an orderly retracement off these highs and give the bulls a rest. The data has been good this week, no disappointing surprises, we'll see if that holds into the GDP on Thursday and into Friday's data. The data will set the tone, so that we don't need to second guess. However, the surprise this week has been the markets reaction to good data, it has not sent us into rally mode. That is when we know things are cooling off to digest this move and let August settle in before we get to September and into better levels of participation.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Thursday 8:30 Prelim GDP, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 GDP Price Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, Friday 8:30 Core PCE Price Index, 8:30 Personal Spending, 8:30 Personal Income, 9:55 Revised UofM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Revised UoM Inflation Expectations.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Thursday pre market AEO, ENER, TOL and after the bell DELL, DLLR, FCEL, MRVL, OVTI. Friday pre market TIF and nothing after the bell.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Thursday's pivot 1026.50, weekly pivot 1009.25, monthly pivot 947. Intraday support: 1022.75, 1021.25, 1018.25, 1015.75-1014.25 38.2%, 1011.75-1009.75, 1007.75, 1005.25-1004.75 fills gap. Resistance: 1031.25, 1034.25, 1038-1038.75, 1041-1042.75, 1049
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
Aug 24, 2009
Monday closed the markets slightly red across the SPX, NDX and Nas Composite, only the Dow was modestly green. Over all it was a very digestive day that held range and came in on lighter volume than Friday, however the volume was better than any day last week excluding Fridays big pop in participation. We had no data to get things moving this morning, but the strength evaporated and eventually dropped the market into Friday's range to finish the day near the lows. The TRIN closed on the highs at .82, which is still in the bulls territory. Vix closed at 25.12 up just 13 cents on the day. Gold closed down $11.00 at $943.70 and oil up 54 cents to $74.43 a barrel.
The day opened into the upper Bollinger on the daily charts for the Nasdaq and came off throughout the day. It is still very tight into that Bollinger to pull in a little more and straighten that up should be on the action items into Tuesday. The Dow along with the SPX closed outside the upper bollingers on the daily charts and left possible reversal bars. We've seen this several times and don't get the confirmation day to follow through. BUT that will be on watch into Tuesday for a lower close to confirm a pullback. 65 minute on each index left a hammer for support at days end, that could produce a bounce early on and then look for a move back into the lows and onto confirming the pullback.
Futures moved to the daily pivots late day and still have the weekly under us. The ES down at 1009.25 and NQ 1612.25, that leg down would correlate with 38.2% on each index. That is a good magnet for the market to pull toward on a pullback. Watch volume on this pullback and the gap from the 20th is still open, below those pivots for another target to clear up ahead of summer ending.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Tuesday 9:00 S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI, 10:00 Consumer Confidence, 10:00 Richmond Manufacturing Index, Wednesday 8:30 Core Durable Goods Orders, 8:30 Durable Goods Orders, 10:00 New Home Sales, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 12:00 FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks, Thursday 8:30 Prelim GDP, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 GDP Price Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, Friday 8:30 Core PCE Price Index, 8:30 Personal Spending, 8:30 Personal Income, 9:55 Revised UofM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Revised UoM Inflation Expectations.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Tuesday pre market BIG, BKC, MDT, SPLS, JAVA, and after the bell HAIN, IRF, MYGN. Wednesday pre market DLTR, KIRK, WSM and after the bell JAS, SINA, TIVO. Thursday pre market AEO, ENER, TOL and after the bell DELL, DLLR, FCEL, MRVL, OVTI. Friday pre market TIF and nothing after the bell.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Tuesday's pivot 1027, weekly pivot 1009.25, monthly pivot 947. Intraday support: 1020.50, 1016.75, 1012.25, 1007.75, 1005.25-1004.50 fills gap. Resistance: 1026.50, 1029.75, 1032, 1035, 1041, 1043.50, 1045
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
Aug 19, 2009
Wednesday a weak start on the day was slowly but surely turned and the market closed green across the broader markets. Volume did come in after lagging for half the day to end with an accumulation day across the markets. The TRIN not as generous as the bulls would have liked, it closed at 1.06 slightly bearish. The VIX was also slightly higher than yesterday to close at 26.26 up 8 cents on the day. Gold closed up $5.80 to $945 and oil up $3.23 at $72.42 a barrel.
The Nas 100, Composite and the S&P 500 all put in new highs on the week, however the SPX still closed under Monday's highs after tipping into new weeks highs. The Dow has yet to put in a new high, all still have gaps open after that drop on Monday's open. The Nasdaq was not the strongest performer today and it had every opportunity with the financials lagging. But energy, oil, along with the big cap tech etc.. helping to hold up the S&P 500 and the Dow even with a red banks and brokers sector. That does still leave the SPX and Dow to make up some ground to get to a new high this week though. We still have a red week, until we get those gaps filled we won't be seeing where last week left off. Today's move up helped to trim the week's losses to very modest.
Thursday the day starts with early data and more into 10. The weeks tone is shakey still, but it is expiration week. Today was pretty trendy action, opening on the lows and finishing near the highs, Tuesday was the same action, but gapped up and continued higher. Monday was more of a trending day lower after a gap and go. Very odd week for expiration. There has been no zig-zag or reversal action. HIGHLY unusual, but we still have Thursday and Friday to watch for that. Futures cleared the 991 and 1589 resistance, looking into 61.8% now at 1000.5 and 1606, which isn't far off. Weekly pivots are still over that at 1002.5 and 1613.25 for the Es and NQ respectively. Because those levels are just overhead a good wind will get us there in the morning. If we do not chop around those levels and skip right through, the gaps overhead and into 1007.5 for the ES and onto 1618.25 for the NQ is my target up here. I'm still not loving the lack of intraday retracements, this seems to stick to the every dip is bought heavily and no refueling. Which is keeping us from running too far too fast and not even seeing overbought conditions. The downside of no retracement is trading is limited, but also fuel to keep moving is limited. That will eventually correct itself and let us get back to normal. Expiration week may help feed that, with the volume still picking up steam. However, after expiration week the fuel may dry up!
Into Thursday the 60 minute futures, 65 minute on indexes look like possible bull flags. The move through the flag to continue would be key. Each day we are opening to no continuation off the prior day, so Thursday look for that and for the upside to keep edging higher. IF we don't see that continuation, I'm going to be in search of that zig and zag action along with a reversal day. ON a side note, I will be around only half day on Thursday and away on Friday. I will post a very abbreviated commentary for Friday, but it will be late on Thursday. Paul will be running the room while I'm away as usual!
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:00 CB Leading Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Inventory, Friday 10:00 Existing Home Sales, 10:00 Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks, Monday nothing due, Tuesday 9:00 S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI, 10:00 Consumer Confidence, 10:00 Richmond Manufacturing Index, Wednesday 8:30 Core Durable Goods Orders, 8:30 Durable Goods Orders, 10:00 New Home Sales, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 12:00 FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks, Thursday 8:30 Prelim GDP, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 GDP Price Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, Friday 8:30 Core PCE Price Index, 8:30 Personal Spending, 8:30 Personal Income, 9:55 Revised UofM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Revised UoM Inflation Expectations.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Thursday pre market BKS, PLCE, DKS, GME, ROST, SHLD, STP, TTC and after the bell BRCD, GPS, INTU, SKIL. Friday pre market ANN, SJM. Monday nothing pre market and after the bell FMCN, WINN. Tuesday pre market BIG, BKC, MDT, SPLS, JAVA, and after the bell HAIN, IRF, MYGN. Wednesday pre market DLTR, KIRK, WSM and after the bell JAS, SINA, TIVO. Thursday pre market AEO, ENER, TOL and after the bell DELL, DLLR, FCEL, MRVL, OVTI. Friday pre market TIF and nothing after the bell.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Thursday's pivot 991.50, weekly pivot 1002.50, monthly pivot 947. Intraday support: 990, 987.25, 984.5, 980.50, 978, 976-975 fills gap 7/29, 973.25, 965.25, 958.50. Resistance: 998.75, 1000.50 61.8%, 1004.25, 1006.50 fills gap-1007.50, 1010.50, 1013.25 fills gap-1014.75, 1016, 1019.50, 1021-1022.50, 1029.50, 1032
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
Aug 18, 2009
Tuesday left the market to recover some of Monday's losses and closed the day green across the broader markets. Volume left the building today and did not participate in the move. The A/D and U/D lines were very slow and steady throughout the day and ended with a nice day for the bulls. The TRIN extremely flat throughout the day to close bullish at .68 and the VIX closed at 26.18. Gold moved higher to $939.00 +3.20 an ounce and oil rallied $2.31 to close at $69.06 a barrel.
We started the week watching inverted head and shoulders on the 65 minute charts, those were negated by the weak open and drop of the head on Monday, now the market is grinding along. There are still gaps overhead, but Tuesday did make up some ground lost on Monday. The Dow along with the S&P 500 closed with inside bars and both recovered only half of the losses on Monday's range. That doesn't include the gap still overhead, which leaves plenty of room still to move. The Nasdaq Composite and Nas 100 traded just over Monday's highs leaving only the gap overhead to fill in, which is resistance.
The market didn't really run away today with the resistance sitting under key levels. The resistance to watch for is Nas 100 1590.25, S&P 500 993.60, and the Dow 9239.21, we clear those levels the market will see the bulls resume. Futures into 991 for the ES and 1589 on the NQ, also we have not seen the weekly pivots at 1002.50 on the ES and 1613.25 for the NQ. Watch for those levels if we clear 991 and 1589 to test on Wednesday. If we fail to take out the resistance levels, the week is likely to take a tone change. Retest Monday's low and some is what I'd expect at this point.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Wednesday 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:00 CB Leading Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Inventory, Friday 10:00 Existing Home Sales, 10:00 Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Wednesday pre market BJ, DE, and after the bell CAI, HOTT, JDSU, NTAP, SINA, SNPS. Thursday pre market BKS, PLCE, DKS, GME, ROST, SHLD, STP, TTC and after the bell BRCD, GPS, INTU, SKIL. Friday pre market ANN, SJM.
NDX (Nasdaq 100) closed +21.61 at 1586.50. Support: 1552.66, 1542.13 38.2%, 1522.69 50dma. Resistance: 1590.25, 1607.01, 1639.82 50% on weekly, 1650.60, 1685.49
SPX (S&P 500) closed +9.94 at 989.67. Support: 979.13, 961.20 38.2%, 943.66. Resistance: 993.60, 1014.14 big 38.2% level, 1019.21, 1048.19, 1096.82, 1121.44.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
Aug 17, 2009
Monday started the day weak off Japan's comments on their economic recovery being slow and our day continued to get heavier. The day opened at one end of the range and closed on the other, it has been awhile that the dip buyers didn't show up to save the day. Volume came up to outpace Friday's, leaving a distribution day. The TRIN closed at 1.74 bearish on the day and the VIX at 28.04. Gold closed down $12.70 at $936 and oil down 95 cents to $66.56 a barrel.
Japan may have been the catalyst to knock the wind out of the sails, but it really is long overdue to pullback and let these bulls refuel. The tight control of the range we saw last week expanded and is letting the market rest now. Into Tuesday look for key levels at Nas Composite 1901.80, Nas 100 1542.13, SPX 961.20, and the Dow 8921.81 for support. Monday brought us down and a little more finds us into those key levels, a break there and this market may accelerate to the downside, but one distribution day after ALL this up, isn't going to do any damage. It will be treated like a buying opportunity off support or some profit taking will come in possibly along with that to keep volume steady and increasing.
It is option expiration week, which of course will see some up and down along with the zigzag in the middle. Volume however should continue to increase and keep the volatility with us. A weak opening is likely to be bought and find the support levels I outlined. However, that doesn't mean the market will rally, there is earl data and it is likely to have impact on the days tone. So overall we start neutral coming into the day, follow through has been very hard to find in the market.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Tuesday 8:30 Building Permits, 8:30 PPI, 8:30 Core PPI, 8:30 Housing Starts, Wednesday 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:00 CB Leading Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Inventory, Friday 10:00 Existing Home Sales, 10:00 Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Tuesday pre market CAH, HD, SKS, TGT, TJX and after the bell ADI, HPQ. Wednesday pre market BJ, DE, and after the bell CAI, HOTT, JDSU, NTAP, SINA, SNPS. Thursday pre market BKS, PLCE, DKS, GME, ROST, SHLD, STP, TTC and after the bell BRCD, GPS, INTU, SKIL. Friday pre market ANN, SJM.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Tuesday's pivot 979.50, weekly pivot 1002.50, monthly pivot 947. Intraday support: 976-975 fills gap 7/29, 973.25, 965.25, 958.50. Resistance: 979.25, 981.50, 983-985, 989.75, 992.25, 999, 1006.50, 1010.50, 1013.25 fills gap-1014.75, 1016, 1019.50, 1021-1022.50, 1029.50, 1032
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
Aug 13, 2009
Thursday delivered an inside day across the broader markets. The markets stayed range bound closing on the highs, but volume did not participate today and came in lighter than Wednesday. Winding day and a digestive day following the Fed is not necessarily a bad thing. It lets the market settle and stay put to avoid being overbought and off in never never land. The VIX closed at 24.71 and the TRIN at .60 bullish on the day. Oil came up 40 cents to $70.65 on the close and gold up $4.00 to $956.50 an ounce.
I wrote this last night to watch for an inverted head and shoulders, today the shoulder completed on the right side. The 65 minute index charts on the Nas 100 and Composite have tested the highs four times now since July 30th. The head and shoulders on the 65, which is bullish, now has the necklines (2015.59 COMPX, 1633.16 NDX) to break for the move higher. The S&P 500 and Dow are not in the same formation for the 4 tests up here, but they do have inverted head and shoulders (SPX 1018, Dow 9437.71). A break of the necklines would likely ignite another big upside move and let the market clear COMPX 2063.52, NDX 1639.82, SPX 1014.14 and Dow 9422.10, all key Fibonacci levels that sit just over these necklines. Congestion between the necklines and the fib's is very likely to hold the market from getting to far too fast, which again helps to keep from getting overbought.
Into Friday look for the data again to set the first hours tone and for the market to set quietly in the afternoon. It is a Friday in August, don't expect a lot. The morning should be tradable and with the strong finish little retracement and test these highs into the necklines could come into play. Likely to be better for the market to break with volume, so Monday would be better timing for a clean break and one with conviction. However, a sneaky move when no one is expecting it can also bring in setting orders and programs to pull enough volume to push this market higher. There is little doubt the bulls are around, now the resistance has to be broken or the downside won't be far away.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Friday 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 CPI, 9:15 Capacity Utilization Rate, 9:15 Industrial Production, 9:55 Prelim Univ of Mich Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Prelim Univ of Mich Inflation Expectations. Monday 8:30 Empire State Manufacturing Index, 9:00 TIC Long Term Purchases, 1:00 NAHB Housing Market Index, Tuesday 8:30 Building Permits, 8:30 PPI, 8:30 Core PPI, 8:30 Housing Starts, Wednesday 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:00 CB Leading Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Inventory, Friday 10:00 Existing Home Sales, 10:00 Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Friday pre market ANF, JCP and nothing after the bell.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Friday's pivot 1008.50, weekly pivot 1001.25, monthly pivot 947. Intraday support: 1009.50, 1007.75, 1004.75-1004.25, 1002.50-1001.50, 998, 995-994.50, 990.50, 984.50, 981.75 fills gap 7/31, 980, 976-975 fills gap 7/29, 973.25. Resistance: 1014.75, 1016, 1019.50, 1021-1022.50, 1029.50, 1032
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
Aug 12, 2009
Wednesday, irkkkkkkk (that is the brakes!), yep bulls slammed on the brakes and threw the bears out. Complete reversal of Tuesday's losses plus some left Wednesday green across the broader markets on higher volume for an accumulation day. The Fed only suggested that the economy is on stable ground and left the statement simple with no changes. The TRIN closed bullish at .60 and the VIX at 25.45. Gold closed up $5.20 to $952.90 and oil up 61 cents at $70.06 a barrel.
Strong day following Tuesdays fall off came out of a quiet night and pre market session. Generally Fed day is pretty quiet and choppy, but today delivered a big move up ahead of the announcement and a market that closed green, but off the highs. Eleven days in range is really what we've seen with some up and some down, but overall very flat on August. Today's boost did take this week back to green, but we still have two days to see if any shift out of this range comes out way. Early data will help to set the tone into Thursday and onto Friday's even bigger data releases.
The 65 minute index charts on the Nas 100 and Composite have tested the highs four times now since July 30th. There is half an inverted head and shoulders on the 65 to watch for a right side to form, which is bullish, if it can form. The S&P 500 and Dow are not in the same formation and Friday put in new highs, so no quad top up there, just a set of highs untested. So unless those highs test, we could see a lower high form or a retest that allows the market to break out. Until the channel (range) breaks or we finish forming a pattern, the market is in a tug of war. 65 minute suggest a pullback for Thursday, but with the lack of follow through we've seen lately until we see a signal that isn't to be assumed. A break of the highs would likely ignite another big upside move and let the market clear COMPX 2063.52, NDX 1639.82, SPX 1014.14 and Dow 9422.10.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Thursday 8:30 Core Retail Sales, 8:30 Retail Sales, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Import Prices, 10:00 Business Inventories, 10:30 Natural Gas. Friday 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 CPI, 9:15 Capacity Utilization Rate, 9:15 Industrial Production, 9:55 Prelim Univ of Mich Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Prelim Univ of Mich Inflation Expectations.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Thursday pre market APWR, DPS, KSS, URBN, WMT, and after the bell A, ADSK, BBI, CHINA, DV, JWN, RRGB, SUMT, TSCM. Friday pre market ANF, JCP and nothing after the bell.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Thursday's pivot 1001.50, weekly pivot 1001.25, monthly pivot 947. Intraday support: 1000.50, 994.50, 990.50, 984.50, 981.75 fills gap 7/31, 980, 976-975 fills gap 7/29, 973.25. Resistance: 1006, 1010.50, 1016, 1021-1022.50, 1029.50, 1032
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
Aug 11, 2009
Tuesday brought a sell off on heavier volume than we saw on Monday on the NYSE and Nasdaq. Futures were lower volume though so again we are splitting from equities. The one day drop on heavier volume is not a problem for the market, a single distribution day doesn't do a lot. However, pulling off should be on light volume not heavy volume. Which will require a few more days to watch and see how we come out here. The TRIN closed at 1.50, the highest close since the 30th of July. The VIX moved higher to close at 26.02 on the day. Gold closed up 60 cents to $947.50 and oil down $1.15 to $69.45 a barrel.
The Nasdaq had been perched on the 10dma, now hovering over the 20dema, CCI dropped into negative territory, RSI fell into the 50's, stochastics moving lower and MACD turned down. The S&P 500 and the Dow still has a flat MACD, RSI to 62-64, CCI at 40 and stochastics pointed lower and just barely under the 10dma. Little turn of the tone on the market after falling out of the range we've been sitting in. The Nasdaq did fill the open gap from July 29th which is now support. The SOX closed down for the fifth consecutive day, banks, hardware and brokers have held up significantly better and just coming off their highs. Banks and brokers were the worst performing sectors on the market.
Into Wednesday early data kicks off the day and the market will be jittery ahead of the fed meeting. It is likely to be slow ahead of the 2:15 announcement, a bond auction will be just ahead of that too. The Nasdaq had a strong bounce off the 1587 support, that will be key coming into Wednesday. The ES has room still and a gap yet to fill at 976-975 support. Some early retracement into Tuesday's range and waiting on the Fed for the afternoon's move will be our plan coming into the day. If the morning news is a kneejerk keep 1587 on watch, I'm not expecting a lot off the Fed, just some volatility but nothing huge. 60 minute futures have a left shoulder, head and could get a right shoulder with the mornings chop and some retracement, which leaves Tuesday's low as the neckline.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Wednesday 8:30 Trade Balance, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, Tentative Fed Credit and Liquidity Report, 2:00 Federal Budget Balance, 2:15 FOMC Statement & Funds Rate. Thursday 8:30 Core Retail Sales, 8:30 Retail Sales, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Import Prices, 10:00 Business Inventories, 10:30 Natural Gas. Friday 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 CPI, 9:15 Capacity Utilization Rate, 9:15 Industrial Production, 9:55 Prelim Univ of Mich Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Prelim Univ of Mich Inflation Expectations.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Wednesday pre market LIZ, M, SLE and after the bell NTES, SINA, TIE. Thursday pre market APWR, DPS, KSS, URBN, WMT, and after the bell A, ADSK, BBI, CHINA, DV, JWN, RRGB, SUMT, TSCM. Friday pre market ANF, JCP and nothing after the bell.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Wednesday's pivot 994.75, weekly pivot 1001.25, monthly pivot 947. Intraday support: 990.50, 984.50, 981.75 fills gap 7/31, 980, 976-975 fills gap 7/29, 973.25. Resistance: 994.50, 998.75, 1000-1001, 1004, 1007.50 fills gap, 1010.50, 1016, 1021-1022.50, 1029.50
NQ (Nas 100 e-mini) Wednesday's pivot 1595.50, weekly pivot 1615.00, monthly 1541.75. Support: 1592, 1589.25, 1587, 1582, 1580, 1574.75. Resistance: 1603.75, 1612.75, 1614.75, 1622.50, 1625, 1627.75, 1632.50, 1634, 1643, 1650.25
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
Aug 10, 2009
Monday left the market with a modest loss across the broader markets. The volume on equities fell off in the lackluster action, the NYSE was the lightest volume since July 27th and the Nasdaq the lightest since July 10th. However, futures came in heavier than Friday's and did close the Russell and S&P futures green. The Nasdaq was weaker all day and never lined up with the other indexes. The TRIN climbed throughout the day to close at .87 and the VIX at 25.02. The SPX and the Dow were inside day's while the Nasdaq traded through Friday's low. Gold fell $12.40 to $947.10 an ounce and oil down 31 cents to $70.62 a barrel.
Monday left the market wound tightly as expected, this narrow range was a good rest day. Tuesday starts with the first look at economic data this week. We pick up the pace with any luck and start positioning ahead of Wednesday afternoon's fed announcement. However, Monday's pace was definitely beyond slow, but the weakness in tech did keep the bulls a step away. Banks once again the strength and kept the SPX strong. On the opposing side the semiconductor's were very weak holding the Nasdaq down. Weekly pivots on futures did test today and the daily did as well despite the narrow range day neutral toned day.
Into Tuesday the SPX and Dow need to move out of Monday's range and find some convictions. The banks can't continue to hold the market up so tech will have to step up or let the market pullback to find some buyers. After we bracket the days range and if the market can work itself out of it we will likely find some direction. I do expect another quiet day though, so it won't be one to get in a hurry to look for big moves. That won't come into play until after the Fed announcement Wednesday afternoon. Not a lot is expected out of the Fed, but it is a good excuse to speculate on what will be said and let the market sit quietly.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Tuesday 8:30 Nonfarm Productivity, 8:30 Prelim Unit Labor Costs, 10:00 TIPP Economic Optimism, 10:00 Wholesale Inventories. Wednesday 8:30 Trade Balance, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, Tentative Fed Credit and Liquidity Report, 2:00 Federal Budget Balance, 2:15 FOMC Statement & Funds Rate. Thursday 8:30 Core Retail Sales, 8:30 Retail Sales, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Import Prices, 10:00 Business Inventories, 10:30 Natural Gas. Friday 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 CPI, 9:15 Capacity Utilization Rate, 9:15 Industrial Production, 9:55 Prelim Univ of Mich Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Prelim Univ of Mich Inflation Expectations.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Tuesday pre market DNDN and after the bell AMAT, PAAS, CLWR. Wednesday pre market LIZ, M, SLE and after the bell NTES, SINA, TIE. Thursday pre market APWR, DPS, KSS, URBN, WMT, and after the bell A, ADSK, BBI, CHINA, DV, JWN, RRGB, SUMT, TSCM. Friday pre market ANF, JCP and nothing after the bell.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Tuesday's pivot 1004.50, weekly pivot 1001.25, monthly pivot 947. Intraday support: 1004.25, 1001.75, 998.25, 996.50-995 fills gap, 990.50, 984.50, 981.75 fills gap. Resistance: 1009.25, 1012.25, 1016, 1021-1022.50, 1029.50
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
Aug 9, 2009
Friday closed the day green across the broader markets on higher volume for an accumulation day. The day did not close on the highs, but help in the top half of the days range. The weeks range narrowed on the Nasdaq, but was slightly larger on the SPX and Dow over the prior week. Overall it was still a smaller range than the big two week move in July. August tends to contract and digest to get things to September. The TRIN closed at .88 which is barely bullish and the VIX at 24.76. Gold fell $3.10 to $959.80 and oil was also down $1.06 $70.88 a barrel.
The weekly Nas 100 and Nas Composite sit just under last weeks highs, but did close marginally higher. The CCI fell slightly off for a small amount of divergence, RSI is 66, MACD is still open to the upside and the ma's are in bullish order, the upper Bollinger is still overhead. The S&P 500 and the Dow retraced into 38.2% off the October 2007 down to the March 2009 lows (1014 and 9422), this is also the inverted head and shoulders neckline. The Dow and SPX is right into the upper BB on the weekly, CCI showing slight divergence, RSI is at 62 and MACD is open to the upside. While the Nasdaq did not take out the prior weeks highs the Dow and SPX did, thanks to the financials big advance on the week. With the Dow and SPX at such key resistance and the Nasdaq lagging this week will have to jump over the line or back the bus up for a look lower.
Daily charts have the SOX and hardware sectors lagged behind the financials and even starting to see sell signals on the SOX. Hardware is more range bound and not as overbought as the banks. Brokers aren't quite as overbought, however any big move up will take care of that. On the daily Dow and SPX the upper Bollinger is trying to curl over, that would be one sign of exhaustion, but we have awhile before that produces much, CCI is still over 100 line, RSI at 73-74 and Stochastics crossed down and the MACD is flat. The NAs 100 and Composite have stochastics turned down, MACD is flat, RSI at 67 and CCI is at 76-80. The Nasdaq also sits on the 10dma and the SPX and Dow are still over that support.
The week ahead will be busy with economic data and the highlight will be the FOMC meeting. After the slow drip off the highs Friday we can look for that to have some follow through into Monday. The slow pace is likely to continue as well into this week. Things should pick up mid week, but Monday and Tuesday maybe very narrow range and quiet. Every dip has been bought and we should expect that to continue until it fails. A pullback of any substance is going to be hard to find, because the sideways action helps to keep the market from becoming overbought and helps to digest any move. The tone is still bullish, the trend is still bullish, it is just becoming more digestive and stagnant. Which can start sectors rotating and eventually pull the market in.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Monday nothing due out, Tuesday 8:30 Nonfarm Productivity, 8:30 Prelim Unit Labor Costs, 10:00 TIPP Economic Optimism, 10:00 Wholesale Inventories. Wednesday 8:30 Trade Balance, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, Tentative Fed Credit and Liquidity Report, 2:00 Federal Budget Balance, 2:15 FOMC Statement & Funds Rate. Thursday 8:30 Core Retail Sales, 8:30 Retail Sales, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Import Prices, 10:00 Business Inventories, 10:30 Natural Gas. Friday 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 CPI, 9:15 Capacity Utilization Rate, 9:15 Industrial Production, 9:55 Prelim Univ of Mich Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Prelim Univ of Mich Inflation Expectations.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Monday pre market CIT, DYN, PCLN, VM and after the bell CEP, ETP, FLR, QSFT, ZOLT. Tuesday pre market DNDN and after the bell AMAT, PAAS, CLWR. Wednesday pre market LIZ, M, SLE and after the bell NTES, SINA, TIE. Thursday pre market APWR, DPS, KSS, URBN, WMT, and after the bell A, ADSK, BBI, CHINA, DV, JWN, RRGB, SUMT, TSCM. Friday pre market ANF, JCP and nothing after the bell.
SPX (S&P 500) closed +13.40 at 1010.48. Support: 1008.26, 997.94, 961.20 38.2%. Resistance: 1014.14 big 38.2% level, 1019.21, 1048.19, 1096.82, 1121.44.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
Aug 6, 2009
Thursday bar the door Katie! Another red day (yes that makes two) Wednesday's was modest and Thursday's a little heavier fall. However, volume was missing on the Thursday's move down and came in a little lighter on the NYSE and Nasdaq markets. The A/D and U/D lines were not real harsh and really kept the pullback in an orderly move with lower highs throughout the day but with retracement. The TRIN strangely low again today at .61 and after two days of an unusually low TRIN with a red market I have to look at this closely. A low TRIN can mean we are seeing selling volume higher, but the declining shares are being bought (dip buyers). Which really does go along with what we would expect to see, the much awaited dip would bring in buyers and with the shallow pullbacks we've seen for weeks this is possibly why that TRIN is holding so low. The other scenario would be the biggest cap stocks are not being sold heavily and offsetting the others that we are getting profit taking in. But either way there is some looming problems with this low TRIN and if it continues to be out of "whack" we'll really have some concern. Gold closed down $3.00 to $963.30 and oil down 13 cents at $71.84 a barrel.
Into Friday the market will have all eyes on the pre market employment data. Today's selling could have likely been nervousness ahead of the data, but also we need to pull in. The last two days losses have closed the gap left from July 29th on the Nas 100 and Nas Composite to leave that as a line of support now. The SPX still has July 31st gap at 987.48 and the Dow at 9171.61. All indexes are just dipping into last week's range, so this pullback isn't doing any damage or causing any panic. However, job's data may do that into Friday. The Daily stochastics are now touching and crossing down, CCI is under 100 line support, MACD closed up tight and RSI has dropped back off the overbought levels. The Nasdaq 100 and COMPX was being watched on that 10dma, both broke today to close under those levels. The SPX and Dow pulled onto those levels today.
Any strength should be watched carefully Friday, the last two days changed the tone a little on this market. So a buy and sit is no longer on the table for assuming the buyers take over. We won't rule it out, because this nervousness off the job's data will be put to bed tomorrow. So once we see the data we'll have some clarity. Do keep in mind it is FRIDAY, once we close that first 90 minutes things may get very slow. Another thing to keep in mind is we are back to the pre Lehman failure area (Sept 2008), folks may see this an a cautious sign if the market gives up too much ground here, no one wants to let profits slide back at this point if they've been waiting to get EVEN since that time period. The market has to start looking into next week and sitting in range for the afternoon would not surprise me. Wednesday we have FOMC meeting and that will now start to be the markets focus once the Job's information is behind us.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Friday 8:30 Non Farm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings, 3:00 Consumer Credit. Monday nothing due out, Tuesday 8:30 Nonfarm Productivity, 8:30 Prelim Unit Labor Costs, 10:00 TIPP Economic Optimism, 10:00 Wholesale Inventories. Wednesday 8:30 Trade Balance, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, Tentative Fed Credit and Liquidity Report, 2:00 Federal Budget Balance, 2:15 FOMC Statement & Funds Rate. Thursday 8:30 Core Retail Sales, 8:30 Retail Sales, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Import Prices, 10:00 Business Inventories, 10:30 Natural Gas. Friday 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 CPI, 9:15 Capacity Utilization Rate, 9:15 Industrial Production, 9:55 Prelim Univ of Mich Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Prelim Univ of Mich Inflation Expectations.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Friday pre market BECN, CEP, SUP and nothing after the bell. Monday pre market CIT, DYN, PCLN, VM and after the bell CEP, ETP, FLR, QSFT, ZOLT. Tuesday pre market DNDN and after the bell AMAT, PAAS, CLWR. Wednesday pre market LIZ, M, SLE and after the bell NTES, SINA, TIE. Thursday pre market APWR, DPS, KSS, URBN, WMT, and after the bell A, ADSK, BBI, CHINA, DV, JWN, RRGB, SUMT, TSCM. Friday pre market ANF, JCP and nothing after the bell.
COMPX (Nasdaq Composite) closed -19.89 at 1973.16. Support: 1953.88, 1918.58, 1901.80 38.2% Resistance: 1985.98, 1997.29, 2005.34, 2013.02, 2063.52 50% on weekly
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
Aug 5, 2009
Wednesday KA-POW we see RED, alright not horrid drop but the market did get shot in the foot. However, the bleeding stopped and we reversed off the lows to close just modestly red. Volume notched up and left the NYSE with a distribution day and the Nasdaq managed to just sit under yesterdays volume so no distribution day there. That is alright to split as we try to make heads or tails of this action. The TRIN unusually low despite the bearish drop, it closed at .43 which is quite bullish. The VIX finished the day at 24.90. Gold dropped $3.30 to $966.40 an ounce and oil moved up 44 cents to $71.86.
The Nasdaq Composite and Nas 100 are sitting on the 10dma, which is the first touch of this moving average since July 14th. The SPX and Dow are still just over that moving averages. This pullback today helped the RSI to turn down and work off some overbought look to it. CCI is hanging around 100 line and MACD is still very quiet and flat lined. Coming into Wednesday we were looking to see if the C leg on that ABC 13 minute pattern would come into play, never came through, so that is null. We opened weaker and never saw that move up to complete the C leg, so just never setup for us. Moving on!!
Into Thursday, it has been a quick week and now we have a market that is teetering. The financials strength held the markets ground and let us have a digestive day. Still in range and possibly a bearish engulfing pattern to come, watch the 10dma as we move now for support to let us step lower off it. Also keep an eye on the upper Bollinger on those daily, starting to see it curl over a little. CSCO is trading down in the afterhours and is pushing the market lower as the conference call continues. Chambers is RARELY overly optimistic and his comment about the market still being "squishy" (his word) is sending us lower. Even without the CSCO push down, I was looking for another weaker opening, so that is still my bet on the morning. Retest of Wednesdays low and we need to see the SPX and Nasdaq on the same page.
The NQ did test the weekly pivot at 1603.75, the ES did not see 980 weekly. In general when the markets are this split and one tests and the other doesn't, that becomes less of a magnet to pull us. Doesn't mean we won't see the ES test, but isn't as strong of a pull with the NQ being the one there first. Thursday look for the range to expand, a break of the lows would be what we need to see without a later day reversal. That would pull us in and create buying opportunities.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Non Farm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings, 3:00 Consumer Credit.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Thursday pre market AES, EAT, CMCSA, CTB, DSX, EP, FTO, KG, MMS, PCS, NDAQ, OMG, WEN, WMB, and after the bell ACS, AIG, BZH, NILE, CBS, CHINA, CROX, ELX, HANS, MXIM, MCHP, NGS, NVDA, THS, VRSN, WTW. Friday pre market BECN, CEP, SUP and nothing after the bell.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Thursday's pivot 998.50 weekly pivot 980, monthly pivot 947. Intraday support: 1000.50, 997.5-995.75, 990.50-989.75, 986.50, 981.75, 979.50. Resistance: 1003, 1007, 1009.75-1010, 1016.50
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
Aug 4, 2009
Tuesday brought in another winning day for the broader markets, however it was very modest and ended up turning green in the last minutes of the race to new highs. Volume stayed steady throughout the day to outpace Monday's on the NYSE and Nasdaq for a second accumulation day this week. Futures volume was off slightly, still isn't lining up with equities, they keep alternating on us. The TRIN closed bullish at .77 and the VIX at 24.97, sitting right on the 10dma. Crude fell 18 cents to $71.40 and gold rallied to $10.80 closing at $969.60 an ounce.
Market breadth wasn't as strong as the prior bullish days we've seen, it really was just neutral on the A/D and U/D lines throughout the day. Never over bearing or full of conviction, which is a different tone, despite the day ending on the highs and seeing the higher level of participation. Into Wednesday the market will get a glimpse at what ADP has to say about job's ahead of the governments numbers due out Friday. That should bring plenty of volatility for the opening and into 10:00 additional data is due. After the bell Cisco (CSCO) is on tap and will be looked at carefully, although Chambers (CEO) is always very conservative on the call and forecast.
Off the opening the market is still within striking distance of key fib resistance overhead. The October 2007 highs down to the March 2009 lows the Nas Composite has 2063.52 50%, Nas 100 has 1639.82 50%, S&P 500 1014.14 38.2% and 9422.10 38.2% inching closer for us. As the SPX and Dow near 38.2% it will be key spots, the Nasdaq has led the market and through that level and onto 50%, but 38.2% is big. With the SPX and Dow both in inverted head and shoulders on the weekly those levels are also the neckline. Watch the upper Bollinger on the weekly as it nears. Daily across the indexes the RSI is at 75-76.33, get over 80 we'll have reason for concern about the overbought conditions. CCI is at 100 lines and MACD flattening to bring the lines together which keeps the volatility contracting.
Daily is not overbought, RSI is getting close but nothing else really is and the 65 minute with the intraday pullback is also showing some room for upside movement. No sign of a bull strike or the bears getting a 10 course meal anytime soon. Bad news could drop us, but as the market inches higher it gives the bulls more room to wiggle to protect gains and less reason to start taking profits. Until we see a swing low taken out or a retracement into 38.2% the bulls have nothing to worry about at this point. 13 minute futures are looking a little like a possible ABC pattern, with the A and B legs complete, the C leg is in progress and look for 1008 minimum but likely to see 1013 before any pullback comes into play. NQ 1633 and onto 1638 with 1644.5 very possible. We did not see the weekly pivot and played off the Tuesday daily non stop.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Wednesday 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts, 8:15 ADP Non Farm Employment Change, 10:00 ISM Non Manufacturing PMI, 10:00 Factory Orders, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Non Farm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings, 3:00 Consumer Credit.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Wednesday pre market ABK, AGU, BHI, DF, DVN, EE, GRMN, MMC, OSG, PG, SEP, RIG, XTO and after the bell NDN, BBBB, CECO, CRA, CSCO, GDP, INSP, JCOM, ONNN, PRU, SUNH, SUN, TIE, WGL. Thursday pre market AES, EAT, CMCSA, CTB, DSX, EP, FTO, KG, MMS, PCS, NDAQ, OMG, WEN, WMB, and after the bell ACS, AIG, BZH, NILE, CBS, CHINA, CROX, ELX, HANS, MXIM, MCHP, NGS, NVDA, THS, VRSN, WTW. Friday pre market BECN, CEP, SUP and nothing after the bell.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Wednesday's pivot 1001 weekly pivot 980, monthly pivot 947. Intraday support: 1000.50, 997.75-995.75, 990.50-989.75, 986.50, 981.75, 979.50. Resistance: 1003, 1007, 1009.75-1010, 1016.50
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
Aug 3, 2009
Monday delivered another day for the bulls leaving 15 of the last 18 days up. Volume outpaced Friday's on the NYSE and Nasdaq to leave an accumulation day, futures however came in just under Friday's. Market breadth was very strong throughout the day and closed the TRIN at .65 very bullish. The SPX closed over 1K today, the first time it has traded over 1000 since November 2, 2008, but there hasn't been a close over 1000 since September 28, 2008. The VIX closed at 25.58, dropping just under Friday's close by .36 cents. Gold closed up $3.70 to $959.50 and oil up $2.08 to $71.53 a barrel.
The October 2007 highs down to the March 2009 lows we are nearing fib resistance. Nas Composite has 2063.52 50%, Nas 100 has 1639.82 50%, S&P 500 1014.14 38.2% and 9422.10 38.2% is nearing. As the SPX and Dow near 38.2% it will be key spots, the Nasdaq has led the market and through that level and onto 50%, but 38.2% is big. With the SPX and Dow both in inverted head and shoulders on the weekly those levels are also the neckline. Watch the upper Bollinger on the weekly as it nears. Daily across the indexes the RSI is at 75-76, get over 80 we'll have reason for concern about the overbought conditions. CCI is at 100 lines and MACD flattening to bring the lines together which helps to keep a lid on a run-away train break out. That by no means can point to a reason to short. The U/D and A/D showed buyers are still around today and until that changes we have to be patient for a pullback.
Into Tuesday watch for a test of the pivots, we didn't even see the daily pivot (ES 997 and NQ 1622) on Monday much less the weekly (ES 980 and NQ 1603.75). Which is likely to leave Tuesday's daily on futures as a key pivotal area. The markets continue to find ways to lift and Monday left a hanging man candle. We saw one on the 27th and pulled off for 2 days on the SPX and Dow, but the Nasdaq didn't confirm. So we'll have to see what Tuesday brings on this one. Thursday and Friday did leave reversal candles and Monday made sure that was still kept on hold with another possible reversal candle forming. We keep seeing groups of candles not doing anything, we need to wait on confirmation.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Tuesday 8:30 Core PCE Price Index, 8:30 Personal Spending, 8:30 Personal Income, 9:30 FOMC Member Tarullo Speaks, 10:00 Pending Home Sales. Wednesday 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts, 8:15 ADP Non Farm Employment Change, 10:00 ISM Non Manufacturing PMI, 10:00 Factory Orders, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Non Farm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings, 3:00 Consumer Credit.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Tuesday pre market ADM, CVS, DRH, ICE, THC, UPL, and after the bell CEPH, ERTS, HLS, TSRA, TRLG, WFMI. Wednesday pre market ABK, AGU, BHI, DF, DVN, EE, GRMN, MMC, OSG, PG, SEP, RIG, XTO and after the bell NDN, BBBB, CECO, CRA, CSCO, GDP, INSP, JCOM, ONNN, PRU, SUNH, SUN, TIE, WGL. Thursday pre market AES, EAT, CMCSA, CTB, DSX, EP, FTO, KG, MMS, PCS, NDAQ, OMG, WEN, WMB, and after the bell ACS, AIG, BZH, NILE, CBS, CHINA, CROX, ELX, HANS, MXIM, MCHP, NGS, NVDA, THS, VRSN, WTW. Friday pre market BECN, CEP, SUP and nothing after the bell.
SPX (S&P 500) closed +15.15 at 1002.63. Support: 990.49, 982.35, 974.50, 968.65, 952.64. Resistance: 1009.94-1014.14 big 38.2% level, 1019.21
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
Aug 2, 2009
Friday close left the broader markets with three up weeks and the month with big gains for the fifth consecutive month. Bulls have let very few pullbacks come into play and last weeks range was significantly smaller than the prior two weeks. The TRIN fell late day to close at .72 and the VIX at 25.92, the highest close on the week. Futures volume was higher on Friday than Thursday but the NYSE and Nasdaq both fell off. Gold rallied $20.60 to $955.50 and oil up $2.40 for $69.34 a barrel.
Next week earnings start to drop off, about 70% of the S&P 500 has reported, which leaves us with fewer big market movers to come. They'll be hit and miss for us now, but plenty still to look for in the next two weeks, just more second tier companies. Economic data picks up this week and we kick off August. Friday did leave some very narrow range bars trying to come off the highs off Thursday's reversal candle. The shooting star on Thursday did confirm on the Nasdaq, but the SPX and Dow, which were both inside days. Leaving Monday to move us out and likely to pull us in. Last week continued to climb even when the market had ample opportunity to drop. The bulls are resilient and the small drops we saw intraday helped to work the overbought conditions off. Daily COMPX, NDX, SPX, Dow all have the stochastics crossed down and sitting in the 80's, RSI low 70's and coming off the highs, MACD is actually touching so the lines did close up some and CCI all into 100 line. None of the daily, weekly or monthly charts are on the upper Bollinger and all still have room to move. Which means until we see this pullback that is trying to wind in here for us, we won't be just assuming up is finished. That is a good way to get into a lot of trouble.
Look for the gap from the 29th to fill and act as support. That is a big drop, so I'd like to see a move into the lows from last week to see if dip buyers step in fast. OR let us pullback. That would give us more confidence in a pullback into lower levels. 60 minute on futures and 65 on the indexes we have the 10ma and 20ema tightening up, keep an eye on that 10 coming through the 20 to guide a drop with some depth to it.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Monday 10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI, 10:00 Construction Spending, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing Prices, Vehicle sales all day, Tuesday 8:30 Core PCE Price Index, 8:30 Personal Spending, 8:30 Personal Income, 9:30 FOMC Member Tarullo Speaks, 10:00 Pending Home Sales. Wednesday 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts, 8:15 ADP Non Farm Employment Change, 10:00 ISM Non Manufacturing PMI, 10:00 Factory Orders, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Non Farm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings, 3:00 Consumer Credit.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Friday pre market AEP, D, TOT, WY and nothing after the bell. Monday pre market CLX, MRO, MGM, TSN and after the bell CTX, MSTR, PHM. Tuesday pre market ADM, CVS, DRH, ICE, THC, UPL, and after the bell CEPH, ERTS, HLS, TSRA, TRLG, WFMI. Wednesday pre market ABK, AGU, BHI, DF, DVN, EE, GRMN, MMC, OSG, PG, SEP, RIG, XTO and after the bell NDN, BBBB, CECO, CRA, CSCO, GDP, INSP, JCOM, ONNN, PRU, SUNH, SUN, TIE, WGL. Thursday pre market AES, EAT, CMCSA, CTB, DSX, EP, FTO, KG, MMS, PCS, NDAQ, OMG, WEN, WMB, and after the bell ACS, AIG, BZH, NILE, CBS, CHINA, CROX, ELX, HANS, MXIM, MCHP, NGS, NVDA, THS, VRSN, WTW. Friday pre market BECN, CEP, SUP and nothing after the bell.
SPX (S&P 500) closed +.73 at 987.48. Support: 976.25, 963.64, 948.02 38.2%. Resistance: 989.97, 1009.94-1014.14 big 38.2% level
INDU (Dow) closed +17.15 at 9171.61. Support: 9110.46, 9026.45, 8966.65, 8861, 8805.94 38.2%. Resistance: 9184.41, 9208.09, 9224.95, 9370.97, 9422.10 big level.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
July 31, 2009
Thursday left the broader markets green, but on the days lows. A nice gap and go day provided some cushion on the move, but didn't hold the gains. Volume came in higher than yesterday's on the NYSE and Nasdaq, leaving the market with an accumulation day. Futures are still fluctuating and came in modestly lighter than yesterday. The TRIN closed bearish at 1.62 and the
VIX at 25.34. Gold closed the day up $7.00 at $934.20 and oil up $3.65 at $67.00 a barrel.
Thursday was the first day we've seen the HOD at 10:40, usually we make new highs throughout the day on this lift we've seen for the past three weeks. That was the first tone change, the sell off in the final hour was definitely another change. The mid day reversals have been off the lows and runs to the bell, today that was a reversal into the lows of the day. The Daily chart left shooting stars on the day. That leaves the highs as a big resistance point on the chart. If Friday closes lower that also confirms the reversal candle and lets the market pull in.
Some of the late day drop was from nervousness ahead of the Friday GDP number. That is very likely to set the days tone for us. The market has had a huge lift and the word overbought doesn't even have meaning any longer. The market went sideways for five days and gapped out of the range on the opening, still closed the Nasdaq over the top of the prior range, the SPX and Dow pulled back within the range. The Dow had a big day trading up to 9246 intraday and closed at 9154. This was the highest close since November 4, 2008 on the SPX and Dow. The Nasdaq Composite had it highest close since October 1, 2008 and the Nas 100 the highest close since September 26, 2008.
Friday look for a retracement of Thursday's drop, the bulls won't walk away that easily! Then we can look for a retest of the lows and even a gap fill on the Nasdaq that was left open. Futures left even bigger gaps open and that will be support. Friday closes July out and isn't likely to get in a hurry to expand the range in the afternoon. A slow start is also likely with 9:45 data that generally stalls the market until the release.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Friday 8:30 Advance GDP, 8:30 Advanced GDP, 8:30 Employment Cost Index, 9:45 Chicago PMI. Monday 10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI, 10:00 Construction Spending, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing Prices, Vehicle sales all day,
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Friday pre market AEP, D, TOT, WY and nothing after the bell. Monday pre market CLX, MRO, MGM, TSN and after the bell CTX, MSTR, PHM
COMPX (Nasdaq Composite) closed +16.54 at 1984.30. Support: 1964.87, 1937.11, 1901.80 38.2% Resistance: 2013.02, 2063.52 50% on weekly
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