TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point With Teresa Appleton
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
25 Oct, 2009
Monday closed the day green with the Nasdaq Composite +.46%, NDX +.44%, Dow +.28% and SPX +.21% on the day. Volume increased on the day for accumulation days on the NYSE, Nasdaq and futures. The TRIN closed at .84 and the VIX at 19.85. Gold closed up $14.90 to $1340 and oil up 83 cents to $82.52 a barrel.
The market gapped up and continued higher until 10, which put in the highs on the day. The market closed on the lows but still held gains because of the strong start. The market losing steam slowly didn't do a lot for trading, but it did bring in that volume and finish modestly green. Finishing the day on the lows and because we had last week as overbought, today's late day drop concerns me for the bulls. Seeing some pullback and profit taking would be healthy for the market. However, volume should be light on a pullback and we are in the last week of the month which generally brings in heavier volume. That could give us some headaches if we see the bears getting some distribution days. However, a little headache and fear won't hurt our volatility so for us it is good.
Futures did not test the pivots (daily or weekly) and that means Tuesday we look for both to get a nice test. ES had nice support at 1178.5 and onto 1169.75. The NQ 2104 and 2097.50, the TF watch 702 and 698.7 for area's to watch for on any retracement. With the SOX leading the Nasdaq today and now we have TXN down after hours that will take some air out of the SOX. KLAC and MXIM report later in the week so we'll keep a watchful eye on the SOX 356.37 support.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Tuesday 9:00 S&P/CS Composite 20 HPI, 10:00 Consumer Confidence, 10:00 HPI, 10:00 Richmond Manufacturing Index, 4:30 FOMC Member Dudley Speaks. Wednesday 8:30 Core Durable Goods Orders, 8:30 Durable Goods Orders, 10:00 New Home Sales, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 4:00 FOMC Member Dudley Speaks. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Advance GDP, 8:30 Employment Cost Index, 9:45 Chicago PMI, 9:55 Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Revised UoM Inflation Expectations.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Tuesday pre market AKS, BIIB, COH, CMI, DD, ECL, LXK, MYL, OXPS, PCAR, AMTD, X, VLO, and after the bell AFL, BRCM, FFIV, MEE, NVLS, PNRA, STM, ULTI. Wednesday pre market ADP, COP, DPS, GD, IACI, IP, LM, MSO, PFCB, PG, SAP, S, VPHM, WHR, and after the bell ACE, AFFX, AEM, ALL, GG, NSC, RYL, TER, V, VISN. Thursday pre market MMM, ADLR, BX, BG, CAH, CLS, CELG, CME, CMS, XRAY, DOW, DUK, XOM, IDA, LLL, MOT, PTEN, POT, RTN, HOT, TE, ZMH and after the bell PAR, AKAM, AMCC, BMC, CEPH, CSTR, DLLR, FSLR, GPRO, GNW, KLAC, LVS, MXIM, MFE, MET, MSFT, QSFT, SUN, VAR, VSEA, VRSN. Friday pre market AGP, AON, CVX, CI, CMC, D, LPNT, MRK, NDAQ, WY and nothing after the bell.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Tuesday's pivot 1186, weekly pivot 1174.50. Intraday support: 1183, 1178.50-1177, 1172.75, 1169.75-1167.25, 1163.50-1161, 1156.50, 1149.50, 1144.25, 1139.50, 1134.75 fills gap. Resistance: 1185.75, 1188.50, 1190.50, 1196-1198, 1201.75, 1205, 1211
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
24 Oct, 2009
The action Friday left the day very narrow, the smallest range since April 12th on the SPX and for the Nasdaq October 11th. Friday's inside day left volume on the curb, it was extremely light volume. The weekly charts show stochastics at 99 for the NDX and COMPX, SPX and Dow are at 94. The RSI is only 62-65 on each index, CCI's are lower and still at 118 area. Each are into the upper Bollinger band on the weekly too. That leaves the market overbought on the weekly and leaves us to look for a pullback.
Friday's narrow range we can bracket and look for a move outside the range. Just because the market is overbought doesn't mean we can't get more overbought, it is not a sell signal until something supports the pullback. The week ahead is full of economic data and more earnings, all of this will help the volatility. The low VIX close at 18.78 is taking the air out of volatility too. The 1.01 TRIN left the market with 4 of the last five days closing the TRIN over 1.00.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Monday 8:30 Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks, 10:00 Existing Home Sales, 4:30 FOMC Member Dudley Speaks, 8pm FOMC Member Hoenig Speaks. Tuesday 9:00 S&P/CS Composite 20 HPI, 10:00 Consumer Confidence, 10:00 HPI, 10:00 Richmond Manufacturing Index, 4:30 FOMC Member Dudley Speaks. Wednesday 8:30 Core Durable Goods Orders, 8:30 Durable Goods Orders, 10:00 New Home Sales, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 4:00 FOMC Member Dudley Speaks. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Advance GDP, 8:30 Employment Cost Index, 9:45 Chicago PMI, 9:55 Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Revised UoM Inflation Expectations.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Monday pre market DSPG, NS, SOHU, TUES, and after the bell AMGN, TXN, VECO, VLTR, ZRAN. Tuesday pre market AKS, BIIB, COH, CMI, DD, ECL, LXK, MYL, OXPS, PCAR, AMTD, X, VLO, and after the bell AFL, BRCM, FFIV, MEE, NVLS, PNRA, STM, ULTI. Wednesday pre market ADP, COP, DPS, GD, IACI, IP, LM, MSO, PFCB, PG, SAP, S, VPHM, WHR, and after the bell ACE, AFFX, AEM, ALL, GG, NSC, RYL, TER, V, VISN. Thursday pre market MMM, ADLR, BX, BG, CAH, CLS, CELG, CME, CMS, XRAY, DOW, DUK, XOM, IDA, LLL, MOT, PTEN, POT, RTN, HOT, TE, ZMH and after the bell PAR, AKAM, AMCC, BMC, CEPH, CSTR, DLLR, FSLR, GPRO, GNW, KLAC, LVS, MXIM, MFE, MET, MSFT, QSFT, SUN, VAR, VSEA, VRSN. Friday pre market AGP, AON, CVX, CI, CMC, D, LPNT, MRK, NDAQ, WY and nothing after the bell.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
21 Oct, 2009
Thursday finished the day modestly green with the Dow up .34%, NDX +.20%, SPX +.09% and COMPX +.09%, very much a mid range finish on the day. Volume on the NYSE fell off and the Nasdaq came in heavier. The futures indexes were heavier on the day. The TRIN closed at 1.23 and the VIX at 19.27 in the lower half of the range. Gold fell $19.40 to $1324.80 an ounce and oil fell $1.98 to $80.56 a barrel.
The day finished with a spinning top leaving the day undecided and neutral, still under the weeks highs. The pendulum started to swing to the downside and we did see the weight come in and that is what increased futures volume which was light until the selling stepped in. With the rebound to mid range that leaves the day neutral. With no data coming into Friday I think we are not likely to see a lot of fireworks as the week closes. After the bell AMZN and AXP are trading lower off earnings and we have SNDK, BIDU, CA, CMG all trading higher off earnings. AMZN has been a monster and should be watched into Friday's opening.
Futures are likely to try to hold this weeks range on us and unless we see a break of either side I feel our range will be limited into Friday. We did test the daily pivots and we have seen them as big levels everyday excluding Tuesday this week. Look for 1176.5 as a ledge on the ES and if we trade as low as 1163.5 watch that support carefully. A drop there would leave us looking for heavier selling and some weakness.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Friday G20 meeting starts. Saturday G20 Meetings Day 2
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Friday pre market HON, IR, KEY, ERIC, SLB, VZ and nothing after the bell.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
20 Oct, 2009
Wednesday erased Tuesday's losses and closed the day near the highs with the Dow +1.17%, RUT+1.14, SPX +1.05%, and the COMPX +.83%. Volume fell off significantly today, following a sell off on heavy volume and now lifting on light volume. The TRIN closed at 1.05 a little high for the price action we had today and the VIX closed near the lows on the day at 19.79. Gold closed up $9.00 to $1345.00 and oil moved higher to close at $82.52 +2.36 a barrel.
The market is poised just under last weeks highs and that leaves us in range still. The market is just not finding its way out of range. Earnings are swinging us around, but not out of range. The unknown is still looming over the market with the mortgage mess and on the other side we had the Fed out last week telling us they aren't out of arsenal and everything will be alright. It is like a terrible tug of war, but it will end and the market will move. The bulls have been very resilient with any bad news. Even Apple's sell off didn't pull the market into the abyss. Apple is still lower than it was pre earnings and unless it rolls under 300 the Nasdaq doesn't have a lot to worry about. So we'll keep one eye on Apple (AAPL).
Futures filled the gaps that were left open after Tuesday's huge gap down. However, when those levels traded selling did step in and pull the market off the ledge pretty quickly. With the light volume nothing happened very quickly, it was our digestive lift and chop. I expect Thursday to bring in heavier volume and for the morning to bring us movement. TF has 692.60, ES 1161 and NQ 2049.75 supports as key levels to watch. The ES and TF have skated under and then back over those levels. Which leaves me to be suspect of those key levels on the ES and TF unless the NQ breaks 2049.75, every index has to find the same page for a breakdown. . Back through the weeks highs is likely to open the door much wider for the bulls.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:00 CB Leading Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, 2:00 FOMC Member Bullard Speaks. Friday G20 meeting starts. Saturday G20 Meetings Day 2
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Thursday pre market FLWS, ALK, T, BG, CAT, CRUS, CAL, CY, LLY, FITB, FCX, JBLU, MCD, MNRO, NUE, PENN, POOL, RS, R, LUV, TRV, UNP, UAL, UPS, XRX and after the bell AMZN, AXP, AMGN, BIDU, CA, COF, CAKE, CMG, LSCC, NCR, PMCS, QLGC, RMBS, SNDK, SYNA. Friday pre market HON, IR, KEY, ERIC, SLB, VZ and nothing after the bell.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Thursday's pivot 1173, weekly pivot 1169.25. Intraday support: 1170.50, 1167.75, 1164.75, 1161 38.2%-1160.75, 1154.50, 1148.25, 1143, 1138.75, 1134.75 fills gap. Resistance: 1178.50, 1182.25, 1184.75, 1189.50, 1196.50, 1201.75, 1203.25, 1211
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
19 Oct, 2009
Tuesday opened with a drop on the opening and the day finished near the lows. The Dow lost -1.48%, SPX -1.58%, NDX -1.63%,COMPX -1.76% and RUT-2.25% on the day. Volume increased throughout the day to leave a distribution day, futures had the highest volume of the contract. The TRIN climbed into the bell to close at 1.93 and the VIX at 20.63. Gold fell $35.30 to $1336.80 and oil down $3.59 to $79.49 a barrel.
Today's drop left the market back in last weeks range, erasing the last few days of lift off. The Nasdaq was well ahead of the SPX and Dow on the lift and left the biggest loss on the day. This market has travelled far and with very little correction so one distribution day doesn't take the bulls out of the driver's seat. It just may park them for a day or two. The Nas 100 (NDX) and Nas Composite could both drop 100 points and just be into 38.2% retracement from today's close. Which gives us plenty of room to move within. The SPX has 38.2% at 1129.87 36 points away and the Dow 10689.90 for 289 points. Those will be key levels of support. Intraday was oversold, but the late day bounce worked most of that off. 65 minute charts left support candles so we'll look for some additional bounce early into Wednesday.
Futures watch for 1166.25 on the ES and onto 1172.50 resistance. The support is 1161 and if that doesn't hold we could see 1148 levels. The NQ has 2072.25 and onto 2084.75 resistance with 2049.75 support. The TF 692.60 support and onto 681.30 with resistance at 696.70 to 702.10. The daily pivot did not test today for any index, but we did see the weekly again today. With the big range Monday and Tuesday the market is likely to find a day of digestion on Wednesday and a narrow range. That would let the market consolidate and move into the second half of the week and more earnings.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Wednesday 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 2:00 Beige Book. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:00 CB Leading Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, 2:00 FOMC Member Bullard Speaks. Friday G20 meeting starts. Saturday G20 Meetings Day 2
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Wednesday pre market ABT, MO, ATMI, BA, CMA, DAL, GENZ, GAP, MS, TIN, UTX, LCC, USB, WFC and after the bell AMLN, ETFC, EBAY, ISIL, NFLX, NE, NVEC, SCHN, XLNX. Thursday pre market FLWS, ALK, T, BG, CAT, CRUS, CAL, CY, LLY, FITB, FCX, JBLU, MCD, MNRO, NUE, PENN, POOL, RS, R, LUV, TRV, UNP, UAL, UPS, XRX and after the bell AMZN, AXP, AMGN, BIDU, CA, COF, CAKE, CMG, LSCC, NCR, PMCS, QLGC, RMBS, SNDK, SYNA. Friday pre market HON, IR, KEY, ERIC, SLB, VZ and nothing after the bell.
NQ (Nas 100 e-mini) Wednesday's pivot 2068, weekly pivot 2066. Support: 2054.75, 2049.75, 2041.25, 2037, 2032.75, 2024. Resistance: 2072.25, 2078.50, 2084.75, 2089.50, 2093.75, 2099.75, 2102.25-2104.75, 2114, 2124-2126.25, 2136.25, 2141, 2144
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
18 Oct, 2009
Monday closed the day with an up outside day with the RUT+.99%, Dow +.73%, SPX +.72%, COMPX +.48% and NDX +.30% leaving the Nasdaq lagging behind the other indexes. Volume fell off like a rock relative to Friday's and futures were about half of the previous 4 days. A VERY light day and pretty full of nothing kind of day. The TRIN closed at .69 bullish and the VIX 19.09 on the day. Gold closed up just 30 cents to $1372.30 and oil up $1.83 to $83.08 a barrel.
The run over Friday and into today for an outside day is a nice bullish move, IF we had volume behind the continuation. Which was missing today and now that leaves the market vulnerable for a drop. The bears only need a crack in the armor to sneak in here and that maybe the case going into Tuesday. After the bell IBM traded from 142.89 closing to 137.60 and AAPL closed at 317.92 to drop to $299.72. Both beat and guided fine, just a sell the news move and AAPL is being conservative with the outlook, but they always do that. Futures took it on the nose with the sell-off on the tech stocks. On an up note COF is trading up on earnings, could give us another split with tech and financials early on Tuesday.
ES has support at 1166.75 and onto 1161 38.2% support below that. A break of 1161 would bring in weakness and much heavier selling. The NQ 2080.50 and 2065.50 would be a deeper drop. The bigger level under the NQ is 2049.75 we get that far, especially in a single day the market would be very oversold. The TF support at 699.70 and onto 697.20 and the deeper level of 692.6 is the big line in the sand. Resistance for the ES would be 1177 and onto 1182.25 (Mondays high) to move onto 1200. The NQ 2104.75 and off to 2126.25. The TF 710.90 and onto 719.90.
The tone will be set by how the early traders handle IBM and AAPL, but in addition to that we have a heavy morning of earnings that include GS and BAC to set the tone for financials. With the big split on tech and financials Friday and then into Monday we could see that get worse or inline off Tuesday's early data.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Tuesday 8:30 Building Permits, 8:30 Housing Starts, 10:00 FOMC Member Dudley Speaks, 7:00 FOMC Member Duke Speaks. Wednesday 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 2:00 Beige Book. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:00 CB Leading Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, 2:00 FOMC Member Bullard Speaks. Friday G20 meeting starts. Saturday G20 Meetings Day 2
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Tuesday pre market BAC, BK, KO, EMC, FRX, GS, HOG, JNJ, LMT, NYT, OXY, OMC, PH, BTU, STT, UNH and after the bell GILD, ISRG, JNPR, SLM, SONC, SYK, TUP, WCN, YHOO. Wednesday pre market ABT, MO, ATMI, BA, CMA, DAL, GENZ, GAP, MS, TIN, UTX, LCC, USB, WFC and after the bell AMLN, ETFC, EBAY, ISIL, NFLX, NE, NVEC, SCHN, XLNX. Thursday pre market FLWS, ALK, T, BG, CAT, CRUS, CAL, CY, LLY, FITB, FCX, JBLU, MCD, MNRO, NUE, PENN, POOL, RS, R, LUV, TRV, UNP, UAL, UPS, XRX and after the bell AMZN, AXP, AMGN, BIDU, CA, COF, CAKE, CMG, LSCC, NCR, PMCS, QLGC, RMBS, SNDK, SYNA. Friday pre market HON, IR, KEY, ERIC, SLB, VZ and nothing after the bell.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Tuesday's pivot 1177.25, weekly pivot 1169.25. Intraday support: 1174.75, 1166.75, 1161, 1160.25 38.2%, 1154.50, 1150.25-1148, 1143, 1138.75, 1134.75 fills gap. Resistance: 1181, 1186, 1192.50, 1196.50, 1201.75, 1203.25, 1211
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
17 Oct, 2009
Friday found a very strong Nas 100 and Nas Composite and a little weaker S&P 500 and a much weaker Dow. The NDX closed +2.10%, COMPX +1.37%, SPX +.20, RUT -.21% and Dow -.28% on the day. Volume increased for option expiration and came in higher on the day. The TRIN closed at 1.22 and the VIX at 19.03 on the lows of the day. Gold closed at $1371.50 on the day and oil at $81.80 both falling on the day.
The week closed on the highs for all the indexes, the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) closed at new highs on the year, the Dow is not far from the years highs. This advance took the weekly charts outside the upper Bollinger band, stochastics over 90 and the RSI along with the CCI are still lower and not into overbought areas. The daily chart on the COMPX and NDX are through the upper BB, RSI is over 75, CCI +200 and stochastics are into the 90's. Both left hanging men on the daily charts, which can be a reversal candle is confirmed with a lower close on volume into Monday. The SPX daily chart the stochastics have already turned down, CCI is 100, RSI 68 and Friday was in range with the prior two days. The Dow stayed in the same range with the prior two days and left a spinning top on the day, stochastics are turning down, RSI 67, CCI 98. Leaving the SPX and Dow not as strong as the Nasdaq indexes due to the lag in financials.
The Hardware (HWI) sector took out the years highs on Friday, the SOX sits under key resistance at 357.07, and internets are just under the years highs. All three sectors are overbought on last weeks lift. Banks are on 44.91 support with 43.94 just below that. Brokers didn't fall as much as banks last week but they are still significantly different than the tech side of the market. 103.58 is the support on brokers to watch and resistance at 107.82. Two other key sectors to watch would be healthcare (HMO) which sets at new highs on the year and with divergence on the daily chart, telecom (XTC) made new highs on the year 2 weeks ago but still sit just off that level and sitting with indecision.
Futures did test the weekly pivots last year and only the NQ broke the weeks range on Friday. The NQ took off running and didn't look back from the Google report igniting the market. The ES has 1160.25 support to stay over to continue higher, NQ 2062 and the TF 692.60 support. With the Nasdaq so far ahead of the other indexes and being overbought along with the overbought condition of the key Nasdaq sectors we can look for some pullback early Monday. Usually we would look for a digestive tone on the day after such a move like the NQ had on Friday and following option expiration that also usually brings a quiet day. The upcoming week will have a TON of earnings in most sectors and that will help to create a lot of movement this week and determine if this Nasdaq is done or just in need of a small correction to refuel and carry every index along with it.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
14 Oct, 2009
Thursday closed the day on the upside with the Dow closing just -.01%, NDX -.13%, COMPX -.23%, RUT-.25% and SPX -.36% on the day. Volume fell a little shy on the NYSE and Nasdaq of Wednesday's. However, futures were a little heavier mostly due to the late day surge that came after Google reported. The VIX closed at 19.88 and the TRIN at 1.51 more bearish than the price action showed. Gold closed up $8.00 to $1378.50 and oil closed down 33 cents to $82.68 a barrel.
Friday ends a busy week and the market has had a rollercoaster few days. The Dow left an inside day but the other key indexes traded just under Wednesday's low. Although the drop the market didn't close outside of Wednesday's range leaving the market with two spinning tops. A lot of indecision up here for the market and that keeps us on our toes still. Google (GOOG) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) traded up after the bell. Futures traded up on the news but have since flattened out. When the European session picks up steam that may change things.
As it stands the market sits just off the weeks highs. Generally options expiration day doesn't have a lot of range, but has a lot of volume. Because this expiration falls as earnings are getting underway we are likely to see more volatility and range than normal. The early data will also provide us with some movement. We will look for the data to set the early tone and to see if GOOG and AMD fade the gains or hold up to give the weak a strong close. GE reports in the morning they are likely to be inline and no big surprises, they usually sell off after earnings due to the run up ahead of the release.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Friday 8:15 Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks, 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 Core Retail Sales, 8:30 Retail Sales, 8:30 CPI, 8:30 Empire State Manufacturing Index, 9:55 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, 10:00 Business Inventories.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Friday pre market SCHW, GE, INFY, MAT and after the bell WDFC.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
13 Oct, 2009
Wednesday delivered a gap and go day across the broader indexes closing with the RUT +1.49%, COMPX +.96%, NDX +.76%, SPX +.71%, and the Dow +.68% rounding out the bottom still with a nice gain. Each index closed just over the 50% mark for middle ground. Volume did come in stronger than Tuesday to leave an accumulation day. The TRIN closed at 1.62 and the VIX at 19.07 on the high of day. Gold closed the day up $23.90 to $1370.60 an ounce and oil up $1.34 to $83.01 a barrel.
The markets gap and go run away train pushed the day higher until the last 90 minutes. Which slowly and very choppily brought the market off the highs. Which left a nice upper shadow out the top of the upper Bollinger band on the daily index charts. That isn't bearish enough for a sell signal on its own, but we are definitely pushing the boundaries up here for being overbought. The market pulling off the highs late day did help work off some of the move and let the market rest. Which leaves the bulls still with fuel, but the high TRIN shows we are seeing some selling volume up here, that is either for shorting or profit taking. There is no real way to know if people are positioning short or exiting long positions to take profits.
Futures did move through the levels I outlined last night that would open the door for the bulls. However, the ES barely managed to close over 1173.75, the NQ cleared 2046.5 and TF well over 700.70. Which leaves me a little cautious with the ES still moving up, but the NQ left a decidedly higher move thanks to Intel's push, which took most of the big cap tech stocks up today. Into Thursday the market sees early data and that will be the first big piece of information we've seen this week. Which is likely to leave the market ready for a move early in the day. After the bell Thursday the market will hear from AMD and GOOG, which will keep the market on its toes late day.
The ES over 1169.75, NQ 2042 and TF 694.50 still bodes well for the bulls to continue this run. It doesn't take a lot of a pullback to keep working off the overbought conditions. I would not like to see another gap and go day, but if the early data comes in healthy that is possible. The market does often perform well following good earnings out of Intel, but as the days pass that usually fades so we'll watch for that into Thursday.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Thursday 8:30 PPI, 8:30 Trade Balance, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Core PPI, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, 11:00 Crude Oil Inventories. Friday 8:15 Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks, 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 Core Retail Sales, 8:30 Retail Sales, 8:30 CPI, 8:30 Empire State Manufacturing Index, 9:55 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, 10:00 Business Inventories.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Thursday pre market FCS, MTG, PGR, WGO and after the bell AMD, GOOG, JBHT, NARA. Friday pre market SCHW, GE, INFY, MAT and after the bell WDFC.
NQ (Nas 100 e-mini) Thursday's pivot 2056, weekly pivot 2004. Support: 2054.50, 2047.75, 2042, 2037 fills gap, 2034.75, 2027.50-2025.50, 2022, 2017.25, 2014-2013.25, 2000.75. Resistance: 2061, 2065.25, 2069.75, 2072.50, 2080.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
12 Oct, 2009
Tuesday closed the day up across the broader indexes with the NDX +.71%, COMPX +.64%, SPX +.38%, RUT +.37% and Dow +.09%. Volume came in significantly heavier than Monday for an accumulation day, futures were almost double Monday's volume. Monday was very light so it wasn't hard to outpace, but the market did show up today. The VIX closed at 18.94, nearing oversold levels and the TRIN closed at .65 bullish on the day. Gold closed down $7.60 to $1346.80 an ounce and oil also dropped 54 cents to $81.67 a barrel.
Wednesday the market has early data, but it isn't likely to be a game changer. The reversal off the lows came with volume and left the market sitting just off the highs. After the bell Intel reported earnings and traded up .7%, CSX traded up 2.2% and LLTC down about -3.7%. Futures have traded fairly flat throughout the evening after that news hit. The day closed near overbought levels, the market keeps getting the fuel to hold up but still no big break of this range. Hearing Intel outlook stay steady and no guiding down is a good start on earnings particularly on the tech side, now the morning will bring JP Morgan's earnings to set the tone for financials.
Futures did test the daily pivots and came very close to the weekly with the NQ just .25 off, the ES came within 1.25 points and the TF was just .10 off. That is very unusual to get that close and not hit them, but today that was what we had delivered. The ES needs to stay over 1153, NQ 2012 and TF 684.30 for supports. As long as futures stay over those levels we are likely to continue the climb to the upside. The final hour on the day left a bearish engulfing candle if the first hour trades lower that would confirm a bearish engulfing pattern and lead the market lower. Getting the Es over 1173.75, NQ 2046.50 and the TF 700.70 would push the market higher.
Wednesday should continue to see nice volume and volatility. Early on we'll be watching the VIX for a bounce, which would push the market lower. So watch the supports above for support. If the market becomes too oversold on the VIX it will contract our range and that leads to a very narrow range for us to trade. The best scenario is to not digest in tiny ranges but to pullback and avoid that for us. But we know the market does what the market wants, we just have to let the process direct us.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Wednesday 8:30 Import Prices, 4:10pm Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks,. Thursday 8:30 PPI, 8:30 Trade Balance, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Core PPI, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, 11:00 Crude Oil Inventories. Friday 8:15 Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks, 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 Core Retail Sales, 8:30 Retail Sales, 8:30 CPI, 8:30 Empire State Manufacturing Index, 9:55 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, 10:00 Business Inventories.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Wednesday pre market ASML, DPZ, JPM and after the bell APOL. Thursday pre market FCS, MTG, PGR, WGO and after the bell AMD, GOOG, JBHT, NARA. Friday pre market SCHW, GE, INFY, MAT and after the bell WDFC.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Wednesday's pivot 1161.75, weekly pivot 1150.50. Intraday support: 1162.50, 1158.25, 1155.50, 1153-1151.75, 1148, 1143, 1136-1134.75 fills gap, 1127. Resistance: 1169-1169.75, 1173.75, 1181, 1185.75
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
11 Oct, 2009
Monday left the day with an incredibly narrow range with the Dow closing +.03%, COMPX +.01%, SPX +.01%, NDX unchanged and the RUT -.05%. Volume was anemic on the day, which is very normal for a narrow range day. Columbus Day also came into the mix and took the wind out of the markets sail. The VIX is back to April 30th levels closing at 18.96 and the TRIN is at 1.41. Gold closed up $8.80 to $1354.10 and oil down 45 cents to $82.21 a barrel.
The days tiny range left the market with the same key resistance overhead that I outlined over the weekend. The Nas Composite has 2433.81, the NDX 2059.42, and the SPX 1175.10 to watch for overhead as resistance. The leadership came from tech today leaving the SOX into 357.07 resistance and Hardware (HWI) 306.58. Keep those levels handy moving into Tuesday's opening. I expect an early pullback across the indexes and key sectors. Volume should increase each day this week into Friday's expiration.
Futures did test the daily pivots, very late day, but not the weekly pivots. They are within striking distance if we open week into Tuesday. The ES has 1150.50 weekly pivot and 38.2% support there to converge as a good support. The NQ weekly pivot is 2004 and 2006.75 is 38.2% support. The TF 683 weekly pivot with 684.30 38.2% just over the pivot for a nice zone of support. A move through Monday's high is likely to bring in a lot of volume and send the market running. We've been stuck in range and a pullback would fuel the bulls or a break out with no chance to get on board lower will force some hands to get in to bring in that volume. It is a waiting game until one or the other happens for us.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Tuesday 10:00 IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, 2:00 FOMC Meeting Minutes. Wednesday 4:10am Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks, 8:30 Import Prices. Thursday 8:30 PPI, 8:30 Trade Balance, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Core PPI, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, 11:00 Crude Oil Inventories. Friday 8:15 Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks, 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 Core Retail Sales, 8:30 Retail Sales, 8:30 CPI, 8:30 Empire State Manufacturing Index, 9:55 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, 10:00 Business Inventories.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Tuesday pre market CNM, FAST and after the bell ADTN, CSX, INTC, LLTC. Wednesday pre market ASML, DPZ, JPM and after the bell APOL. Thursday pre market FCS, MTG, PGR, WGO and after the bell AMD, GOOG, JBHT, NARA. Friday pre market SCHW, GE, INFY, MAT and after the bell WDFC.
NQ (Nas 100 e-mini) Tuesday's pivot 2026.50, weekly pivot 2004. Support: 2024, 2020.50, 2018, 2012.50, 2007.25, 2003.25, 1999.75-1997, 1990.25. Resistance: 2028.75, 2031.50, 2035, 2039.50-2042, 2045, 2049.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
7 Oct, 2009
Thursday brought us a very narrow range day with the NDX closing up +.25%, COMPX +.12%, RUT-.16%, SPX-.16%, and the Dow -.17%. Volume dropped with the range holding tight to leave the NYSE and Nasdaq lighter than Wednesday. The ES and TF were slightly higher volume and the NQ lower, they all had a lot of on again and off again spikes. The NQ was lighter because it was an inside day, the other two were not. The TRIN closed at 1.17 and the VIX at 21.56. Gold fell $11.82 to $1335.90 and oil down $1.56 to $81.67 a barrel.
The Dow sat just 1.47 off 11,000 still closing with a spinning top. The SPX still sits in the weeks range just off the highs with another spinning top. The NDX left an inside day, but the COMPX traded just pennies under yesterdays low to close back in range. The SPX and Dow were the stronger indexes yesterday and today they flipped to weaker. Leaving the NDX and COMPX as the stronger indexes but still no real conviction as we sit under resistance. The Nas Composite has 2396.36 and onto 2433.81 a key area to get over. The Nas 100 (NDX) 2059.42 as the years highs and key resistance. S&P 500 (SPX) 1158.60 and onto 1175.10 as the spots to test. The Dow has 10996.70-11000 just overhead and then not a lot until 11258.01.
The NQ has 2000.50 as a key level and then 1985.50 for supports. The ES has 1152.25 and 1146.5 as key levels of support below us. A move over 1160.50 would open the door to 1176.25. For the NQ over 2017.50 and onto 2025 will be where we need to head for the bulls to have a successful run. The after hours news on Alcoa (AA) traded up after hours +2.6% and MU traded down about -1.3%. AA impacts the SPX and Dow, while MU will impact the NDX. Tech needs good news to run and Micron did not deliver it with the big miss on EPS and revenue. Alcoa was strong but the conference call was still questioning if the sector has bottomed and if improvement is around the corner. That is a concern and if that Job's data tomorrow morning in the pre market come in weak or worse than expected, the earnings and data could provide a catalyst for a selling party.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Friday 8:30 NonFarm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings, 10:00 Wholesale Inventories, Day 1 of 2 for IMF Meetings. Monday US bank holiday, bonds are closed. Tuesday 10:00 IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, 2:00 FOMC Meeting Minutes.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Friday nothing due out. Monday nothing pre market and after the bell GPN. Tuesday pre market CNM, FAST and after the bell ADTN, CSX, INTC, LLTC. Wednesday pre market ASML, DPZ, JPM and after the bell APOL. Thursday pre market FCS, MTG, PGR, WGO and after the bell AMD, GOOG, JBHT, NARA. Friday pre market SCHW, GE, INFY, MAT and after the bell WDFC.
NQ (Nas 100 e-mini) Friday's pivot 2008.25, weekly pivot 2001. Support: 2000.75-2000.50, 1995.50, 1993.75, 1985.50, 1977 fills gap, 1974.75. Resistance: 2017.75, 2025, 2030.50, 2034.25, 2041.50, 2046.50.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
6 Oct, 2009
Wednesday closed the day split on the markets with the Dow +.20%, SPX -.06%, RUT-.58%, COMPX -.79%, and NDX -.89%. The COMPX, RUT and SPX all closed with an inside day, incredibly tight day, the Dow, NDX traded outside Wednesdays range. The Dow popped out the top and the NDX out the bottom. The Dow was the leader on the day and the NDX the dog on the day, very split action. The TRIN closed at 1.14 and the VIX at 21.49 just off the 20.85 9/14 lows. Gold spent another day climbing to close up $9.70 to $1350 and oil also up today to close +.41 to $83.23 a barrel.
With the narrow range on the SPX, COMPX and RUT the break of the high or low makes for a reason to look for continuation in the direction of the break. The NDX the weakness muddies that water a little, which means the NDX has to play with a break to the upside or the move could be suspect. The Dow strong and just 33 points off the 11000 mark leaves that for another push to test.
Futures did test the daily pivot today and managed to hold over key supports. The NQ has 2000.50 as a key level and then 1985.50 for supports. The ES has 1152.25 and 1146.5 as key levels of support below us. A move over 1160.50 would open the door to 1176.25. For the NQ over 2017.50 and onto 2025.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, 3:00 Consumer Credit. Friday 8:30 NonFarm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings, 10:00 Wholesale Inventories, Day 1 of 2 for IMF Meetings.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Thursday pre market ISCA, PEP and after the bell AA, MU, NUHC. Friday nothing due out.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Thursday's pivot 1155.25, weekly pivot 1141. Intraday support: 1152.25, 1146.50, 1142.75, 1139, 1134.50 fills gap-1133.75, 1127. Resistance: 1160-1160.50, 1167.25-1169.75, 1171.25, 1178
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
5 Oct, 2009
Tuesday the market rallied off a strong opening and held to climb throughout the day. The RUT closed up +2.97%, NDX +2.49%, COMPX +2.35%, SPX +2.08%, and the Dow +1.79%. Participation increased as the day progressed to give the NYSE, Nasdaq and futures more volume than Monday had for accumulation days across the markets. The TRIN closed very bullish at .28 and the VIX at 21.76. Gold climbed $23.50 to $1340.30 and oil up $1.35 to $82.82 a barrel.
The SPX, COMPX and Dow broke last weeks high, leaving on the NDX just shy of last weeks high. Going into Wednesday those break outs will need to hold for confirmation. Holding the highs and continuing on leave the Nasdaq Composite with 2433.81 78.6% fib resistance, Nas 100 2059.42, S&P 500 1175.10 78.6%, and the Dow 10996.70-11000. Intraday the lift left the market overbought, but that final hour did bring an engulfing candle off the highs. If the first hour into Wednesday closes lower that would confirm that candlestick.
With taking out the highs from last week that invalidates the ABC pattern I talked about last night. With the overbought conditions we sit with a pullback would be what we look for Wednesday. However, with ADP job's data due before the market opens we will look for that to set the days tone. This is our first step to Friday's government hearing from the private sector first. In the past they weren't real accurate, but they've improved and in recent history it has been more accurate. If the data is decent the bulls are likely to keep pace and push us onto the levels outlined above. If the data isn't great or inline we are likely to see the bearish engulfing candles confirm and pull us off these highs.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Wednesday 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts, 8:15 ADP Non Farm Employment Change, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, 3:00 Consumer Credit. Friday 8:30 NonFarm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings, 10:00 Wholesale Inventories, Day 1 of 2 for IMF Meetings.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Wednesday pre market STZ, COST, MON and after the bell MAR, RT. Thursday pre market ISCA, PEP and after the bell AA, MU, NUHC. Friday nothing due out.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
4 Oct, 2009
Monday kicked the week off with a drop closing the day with the Dow off .72%, SPX -.80%, NDX -1.06%, COMPX -1.10%, and RUT -1.44. Volume fell off today coming in significantly lighter than Friday's volume. The TRIN closed at 1.39 bearish and the VIX at 23.53. Gold closed down 70 cents to $1317.10 an ounce and oil fell 11 cents to $81.47 a barrel.
The market put in the lows at noon and chopped for the rest of the afternoon to retrace just shy of 50% of the day's losses. Tech really could not keep pace and ended the day with the SOX losing 1.41% leading the way on the drop. The days fall took some air out of the market, but really minor given the lift the market has experienced. On the 65 minute cash index charts (NDX, SPX, Dow) there is a possible ABC pattern, which put in its high last week. The pullbacks off each leg were VERY shallow, but still consistent and symmetrical. If this is an ABC our high is in until we see a deeper retracement, but we could retest that high or see a lower high to mark the project. We'll watch for each possibility to setup and see if the pattern plays out.
Futures did test the weekly pivots, the ES and TF also gave the daily a look. Each filled the gaps today and with the ES starting much stronger than the NQ it made for a struggling day of tug of war to get everyone on the same page. However both did test support at 1127.25 on the Es and NQ 1960.50 and held. If the Es drops 1127.25 we could see as low as 1107.25 support. The NQ 1960.50 and onto 1920.75 could test. The ES still has 1120.50 gap open from 9/23/10. The NQ has a gap at 1952.75 from 9/17. Gaps provide support to the market. The market may retrace into 1143.25 and NQ 1986.75 for a test. If we clear those area's the bulls are likely to perk up and push higher. A pause there look for weakness to stay with the market and move back to Monday's low, a drop there will give us that deeper look.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Tuesday 10:00 ISM Non Manufacturing PMI. Wednesday 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts, 8:15 ADP Non Farm Employment Change, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, 3:00 Consumer Credit. Friday 8:30 NonFarm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings, 10:00 Wholesale Inventories, Day 1 of 2 for IMF Meetings.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Tuesday pre market WWW and after the bell YUM. Wednesday pre market STZ, COST, MON and after the bell MAR, RT. Thursday pre market ISCA, PEP and after the bell AA, MU, NUHC. Friday nothing due out.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
3 Oct, 2009
Friday closed the day and the week lower with the SPX as the strongest index up .44%, Dow +.38%, RUT +.24%, COMPX +.08% and NDX -.07% on the day. Inside digestive days on the broader markets with volume also diminishing on the day. The TRIN closed at .64 and the VIX at 22.50 just under the 200dma. Gold closed up $8.10 to $1317.70 and oil up $1.61 to $81.58 a barrel.
Last week closed modestly lower and really narrowed the range that we've seen on the prior two weeks. The market started to lose the some footing but didn't ever fall out of bed. For 6 days the market has set in range and has now brought the stochastics, CCI, RSI, MACD to all tip downward. Nothing is opening up, but everything is losing some steam with the digestive tone. The market can do this to rest and refuel or can start a pullback. The week ahead is full of economic data, most of which can move the market and will be imperative to finding any follow through for the upside to have good news. Bad news would give the market the pullback and some correction. Which we have not seen since the market started up on August 25th.
The futures traded in a triangle Thursday and Friday, which left the day tightening and an inside day. Futures did test the weekly pivots last week and with the inside day on Friday we can bracket Friday's range and look for follow through with a break of the high or low. If the Es drops 1127.25 we could see as low as 1107.25 support. The NQ 1960.50 and onto 1920.75 could test.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Monday 10:00 Pending Home Sales, 10:00 Factory Orders, 3:00 Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks, 7:30 pm Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks. Tuesday 10:00 ISM Non Manufacturing PMI. Wednesday 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts, 8:15 ADP Non Farm Employment Change, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, 3:00 Consumer Credit. Friday 8:30 NonFarm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings, 10:00 Wholesale Inventories, Day 1 of 2 for IMF Meetings.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Monday nothing pre market and after the bell MOS. Tuesday pre market WWW and after the bell YUM. Wednesday pre market STZ, COST, MON and after the bell MAR, RT. Thursday pre market ISCA, PEP and after the bell AA, MU, NUHC. Friday nothing due out.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Monday's pivot 1141, weekly pivot 1141. Intraday support: 1138.25, 1134.50, 1131, 1127.25, 1120.50 fills gap, 1117.25, 1113.50, 1111.25. Resistance: 1145, 1148.75, 1153.50, 1155.50, 1160.50, 1167.25-1169.75
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
30 Sep, 2009
Thursday ended the day with a loss after opening very strong. The RUT fell -.22%, SPX -.30%, COMPX -.33%, Dow -.43%, NDX -.54%. Volume came in stronger than Wednesday's which leaves us with a distribution day on the NYSE, Nasdaq and futures. The TRIN closed at 1.41 and the VIX at 23.70, just over the 200dma. Gold closed down -1.20 to $1309.10 and oil up $2.11 to $79.97 a barrel.
Into Friday the market has a lot of early economic data and struggled late day to hold the range the week has traded in. SOX rejected 357.07 resistance and has been the leader for tech day after day. Look to the SOX for help in determining direction. The highs on the VIX for the month of September sit at 25.13, we traded to 24.52 today. Look for that zone to be resistance, we climb through that level we look for 25.86 and onto 26.58 resistance levels. If the VIX climbs the market looks for a pullback. The VIX dropping from here leads us into a narrower range and climbing slowly.
With September putting in a gain, October will have some pressure to hold those gains and get through the resistance just overhead. The Nas Composite has 2396.36 and onto 2433.81 a key area to get over. The Nas 100 (NDX) 2059.42 as the years highs and key resistance. S&P 500 (SPX) 1158.60 and onto 1175.10 as the spots to test. The Dow has 10906.30, which did get a good look today and we rejected that resistance even with a move 42 points over that key level.
Closing as weak as we did and with the stiff resistance overhead, Friday any bad news off the data would be a catalyst for a pullback. A corrective move here would let the market rest and find fuel to move into the month with buyers that are on the sidelines waiting on a pullback. Option expiration is very early in October, which will force hands early in October to step in. Expiration is always the third Friday and that puts us only 15 days into the month for expiration.
Futures the ES has 1131 and onto 1127.25 for support. A drop there we look for the gap down at 1120.50 to fill. The NQ 1990 and onto 1979.75 for support, drop there we could see as low as 1973-1966.50 to test. The TF 688.80 and onto 664.20 are the area's to keep in mind if we see any correction into Friday. A strong start should be taken seriously, don't just assume we give up the gains if the data comes out strong. The market may look to hold the strength and keep us in a tiny range throughout the day.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Friday 8:30 Core PCE Price Index, 8:30 Personal Spending, 8:30 FOMC Member Dudley Speaks, 8:30 Personal Income, 9:55 Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Revised UoM Inflation Expectations, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI, 10:00 Construction Spending, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing Prices, Total Vehicle Sales All day.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Friday pre market KBH and nothing after the bell.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
29 Sep, 2009
Wednesday closed the day modestly red with the COMPX -.12%, NDX -.16%, Dow -.21% and the SPX -.25% on the day. Tuesday's gains were just slightly more than today's losses but these narrow ranges just leave the market in range and with an inside day for digestion. The TRIN closed at 1.25 more bearish than the price action showed and the VIX at 23.25. Gold closed up $2.30 to $1310.60 an ounce and oil also closed up $1.68 to $77.86 a barrel.
The digestive day has left the month still near the highs and that leaves one more day for the bulls to hold onto these gains. The SOX moved just over the 200dma today, first time since August 10th that we've seen the semi's over the 200dma. Now we will need another day over to confirm this break and let the tech sector run on to 357.07. Financials are still lagging back and not seeing the lift we've had in hardware, semi's, telecom and internets. The move through the weeks high will open the door a lot wider for the bulls. As long as we sit in range and just do what we can to hold the gains the more suspect the upside becomes. The early data Thursday is likely to give us the volatility we need to find some movement.
Futures did test the daily pivot and we had a lot of rotation around them throughout the narrow range day. The ES has 1135 support and then 1128.25 to watch for, we do still have an open gap at 1120.50 from 9/23. The NQ support is 2000.75 and down to 1988.50. The NQ spike down on Tuesday did fill the gap at 1981.50 on 9/23, it was not a good test it was a spike off the Apple news early that day. The TF support is 665.10 and onto 657.30, also a gap from 9/23 at 647.20 still to fill.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Final GDP, 8:30 Final GDP Price Index, 9:45 Chicago PMI, 10:00 Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Core PCE Price Index, 8:30 Personal Spending, 8:30 FOMC Member Dudley Speaks, 8:30 Personal Income, 9:55 Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Revised UoM Inflation Expectations, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI, 10:00 Construction Spending, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing Prices, Total Vehicle Sales All day.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Thursday pre market RAD, SCHL, TXI and after the bell FINL, NKE, SABA, TIBX. Friday pre market KBH and nothing after the bell.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
28 Sep, 2009
Tuesday closed the day green across the broader markets with the RUT up +1.06%, SPX +.48%, Dow +.42%, COMPX+-.41%, and NDX +.07%. Volume came in higher on the NYSE and Nasdaq, nothing significant over Monday's but modestly higher. Futures were almost double what traded on Monday, which is significant. The VIX closed at 22.60 after piercing the 200dma, we still closed under that level. The TRIN fell to close on the days low at .65 bullish tone. Gold moved higher to close at $10.00 to $1308.60 an ounce and oil up 34 cents to $76.18 a barrel.
The market closed very near the highs on the day and the high on the week. Leaving us with the need to break out and if we see a little window dressing into month end over the next two days the volume will be there and that could push us either way. Breaking into new highs would be likely to ignite the upside move and a break of Tuesdays low would also be cause for concern. The market is very fragile and no one wants to be caught short on a lift or left holding the bag on a drop.
Futures did test the weekly and daily pivots Tuesday, it was also a day where we broke the globex high and low. That is not something we see every day on the indexes. The ES has 1145.25 and onto 1151.25 overhead. The ES did trade to 1146 but quickly rejected and came back off, leaving that as a key area for us to clear and move on. The NQ traded to 2024.25 and came off, back through those highs we can look for 2033.50 to test.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Wednesday 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 1:15 FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Final GDP, 8:30 Final GDP Price Index, 9:45 Chicago PMI, 10:00 Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Core PCE Price Index, 8:30 Personal Spending, 8:30 FOMC Member Dudley Speaks, 8:30 Personal Income, 9:55 Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Revised UoM Inflation Expectations, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI, 10:00 Construction Spending, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing Prices, Total Vehicle Sales All day.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Wednesday pre market GIS, JEF and after the bell BBBY, SCS. Thursday pre market RAD, SCHL, TXI and after the bell FINL, NKE, SABA, TIBX. Friday pre market KBH and nothing after the bell.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
27 Sep, 2009
Monday started the week with a modest loss across the broader markets with the NDX off -.63%, SPX -.56%, COMPX -.48%, Dow -.44% and RUT -.40% on the day. Volume fell harder than the market did with Monday being the weakest of the last 5 days. Leaving Monday to be a very digestive narrow range day on the broader markets. The TRIN closed on the highs at 1.23 bearish and the VIX at 22.54. Gold also in a tiny range to close up 10 cents at $1298.20 and oil up 3 cents to $76.52 a barrel.
The indexes traded through Friday,s high at 2:20 and just could not hold the momentum to find buyers. The tiny range didn,t help the momentum rotate over the hill for a run. The market pulled back very slowly until the final 30 minutes which accelerated to new lows. After the bell RIMM (Research in Motion) announced the introduction of the Blackberry Playbook, the stock traded higher and futures saw a little wiggle. Monday,s light volume pullback is the best thing the bulls can hope for, we sell off on heavy volume we would worry about that. Light volume is nothing more than digestive and a normal retracement.
Into Tuesday look for the range to expand and give us a nice move. The market retraced 61.8% of Friday,s move, that is a healthy pullback. However we still have Friday,s big gap mixed in there and is a lift mixed in with Friday,s big move. ES look for 1134.50 we drop that we will look into 1128 and onto the gap at 1120.50. ES back through 1145.25 we can look for 1151.25 and onto 1155.50. Nq has 2002 support then 1988.50 and onto the gap 1981.25 gap. NQ back over 2014.50 and onto 2021.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Tuesday 9:00 S&P/CS Composite 20 HPI, 10:00 CB Consumer Confidence, 10:00 Richmond Manufacturing Index. Wednesday 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 1:15 FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Final GDP, 8:30 Final GDP Price Index, 9:45 Chicago PMI, 10:00 Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Core PCE Price Index, 8:30 Personal Spending, 8:30 FOMC Member Dudley Speaks, 8:30 Personal Income, 9:55 Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Revised UoM Inflation Expectations, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI, 10:00 Construction Spending, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing Prices, Total Vehicle Sales All day.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Tuesday pre market AZO, CCL, and after the bell ADBE, DRI. Wednesday pre market GIS, JEF and after the bell BBBY, SCS. Thursday pre market RAD, SCHL, TXI and after the bell FINL, NKE, SABA, TIBX. Friday pre market KBH and nothing after the bell.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Tuesday,s pivot 1140, weekly pivot 1134.75. Intraday support: 1134.50, 1128, 1123.25, 1120.50 fills gap, 1117.25. Resistance: 1141.75-1143-1145.25, 1151.25, 1155.50, 1160.50, 1169.75
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
26 Sep, 2009
Friday closed the day on the upside and left the week closing on its highs. The RUT +3.41%, COMPX +2.32%, SPX +2.11%, NDX +2.10%, and Dow 1.85%. Volume came in heavier for an accumulation day on the NYSE and Nasdaq. The TRIN closed at .53 and the VIX at 21.71 still in a channel under the 200dma. Gold closed up $1.40 to $1297.70 an ounce and oil up $1.26 to $76.44 a barrel.
Weekly charts the NDX is through the upper Bollinger band, CCI is 211, RSI 62 and stochastics at 94, leaving it overbought on a weekly outlook. The daily still has some wiggle room but not a lot watch for 2059.42 as a key resistance level. The SPX weekly closed on the highs but lags the NDX. Closed just below the upper BB, CCI is only 159, RSI 57 and stochastics at 90, the daily still has plenty of room to move into 1158.60 and onto 1175.10. The Dow on a weekly chart is into the upper BB but no other indicators are overbought the CCI is only 160, RSI 59, stochastics 84 leaving plenty of room to move. The Dow has 10906.30 fib resistance and 10920.27 5/13 swing high as a key level just overhead to watch for.
With the market back to levels from April and May the bulls have opened the doors for September to have a strong finish. Thursday is the last day of September and the month has had only 5 down days on the Nasdaq, 7 on the SPX and Dow. That is impressive and now with only 4 trading days left in the month and an overbought Nasdaq on the weekly charts we will be cautious. Volume has been hit and miss all month and usually the final week of the month brings in more participation.
Friday's strong hold on the day and no pullbacks all day off a gap up, leaves the market with some weary legs. Early Monday look for a pullback, retracing half of the opening hour from Friday maybe all we see. I would like to get into the gap we left open, but that may need another look into Friday's highs after a pullback and then see a deeper drop into that open gap.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Monday nothing due out. Tuesday 9:00 S&P/CS Composite 20 HPI, 10:00 CB Consumer Confidence, 10:00 Richmond Manufacturing Index. Wednesday 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 1:15 FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Final GDP, 8:30 Final GDP Price Index, 9:45 Chicago PMI, 10:00 Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Core PCE Price Index, 8:30 Personal Spending, 8:30 FOMC Member Dudley Speaks, 8:30 Personal Income, 9:55 Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Revised UoM Inflation Expectations, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI, 10:00 Construction Spending, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing Prices, Total Vehicle Sales All day.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Monday pre market DFS, LEN and nothing after the bell. Tuesday pre market AZO, CCL, and after the bell ADBE, DRI. Wednesday pre market GIS, JEF and after the bell BBBY, SCS. Thursday pre market RAD, SCHL, TXI and after the bell FINL, NKE, SABA, TIBX. Friday pre market KBH and nothing after the bell.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
23 Sep, 2009
Thursday closed the day down off a reversal day with the RUT-1.19%, SPX -.83%, Dow -.71%, COMPX-.31%, and the NDX -.31%. Volume on the NYSE and Nasdaq were slightly lighter today. Futures were all heavier on the day. The TRIN closed at 1.41 bearish on the day and the VIX at 23.87. Gold closed up $3.40 to $1295.50 and oil up 47 cents to $75.18 a barrel.
The Nas Composite and the SPX pulled back into Friday's range and filled the open gaps. The NDX still holds over the weeks low and the Dow which held up very well on Wednesday dropped into the lower half of the weeks range. Financials fell on their head today, and continue the road of lower highs since April 15th, we bounce and see a lower high, but that changed with August 6th seeing higher retracement and dropping. The August 31st low (banks 42.70 and brokers 97.05) will be key support now and we have plenty of room before we get there. But keep those in mind as we move. Technology held up better than financials but even hardware, internets and telecom closed red, semi's closed green.
Futures did test the daily pivots and the ES along with the TF saw the weekly. Leaving only the NQ left to test the weekly pivot at 1939.25 still WAY below us. The ES filled the gap from 9/17, the NQ has not and that is leaving us with a bit of a split market. The Es is so much weaker it is harder to see how far the ES will move with the NQ not pushing. Financials are the weak link and not doing us any favors with tech holding the NQ's hand much stronger. Es has 1116.50 and onto 1109 for key support levels. Resistance to be watched will be 1127.5 and onto 1133.75 as key levels. The NQ watch 1967.75 and a drop there we look for the 9/17 gap at 1952.75 to fill. The resistance to watch is 1989.75, over that level we will look for 2000.25 to retest. The 2000.25 was Tuesday's high and now Thursday's we could see double top here, a break of 1967.75 should be closely watched for that pattern to shape up.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Friday 8:30 Core Durable Goods Orders, 8:30 Durable Goods Orders, 9:00 FOMC Member Duke Speaks, 10:00 New Home Sales, 4:30 Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Friday pre market KBH and nothing after the bell.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
22 Sep, 2009
Wednesday gave the market a correction across the broader markets with the RUT-1.19%, COMPX -.62%, SPX -.48%, NDX -.31% and the Dow -.20%. Volume was not on the same page with the NYSE being lower on the day and the Nasdaq higher. That leaves the Nasdaq with its second distribution day on the week. The TRIN closed at 1.27 and the VIX at 22.51. Gold closed the day up $17.60 to $1291.90 and oil down 26 cents to $74.71 a barrel.
The drop on Wednesday retested at least of the rise we saw on Monday on all the key indexes excluding the Dow. The Dow lost very little ground and was propped up with the strength from only 12 stocks in the Dow closing green. This pullback is likely to see some buying attempts to get on board the bulls bus we've seen for the month (so far). Holding over Monday's low is still bullish and keeps the upside in the running. The resistance we've sat at since Monday is still overhead and a key spot. (The Nasdaq composite closed just under 61.8% 2354.16 resistance, NDX just over 1982.51 78.6% (for the 3rd day), SPX just under 1140 61.8% and the Dow is just shy of 10776.40 70.7% resistance).
ES watch for 1122.25 and to 1116.50 for support, resistance 1133.25 and onto 1140.25. The NQ 1967.75 support and onto 1957.50, with 1988.75 resistance. TF 651.10 and onto 645.7 supports and 657.80 resistance for tests into Thursday. Futures still have not seen the weekly pivots which are well below us, another step down would get us there and get that cleared up into Thursday. Any bad news off the early data would certainly be reason to look for that drop.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 Existing Home Sales, 10:00 CB Leading Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Core Durable Goods Orders, 8:30 Durable Goods Orders, 9:00 FOMC Member Duke Speaks, 10:00 New Home Sales, 4:30 Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Thursday pre market RAD, SCHL, TXI and after the bell FINL, NKE, TIBX. Friday pre market KBH and nothing after the bell.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Thursday's pivot 1132, weekly pivot 1120.25. Intraday support: 1126.50, 1122.25, 1119.25, 1116.50, 1109. Resistance: 1133.25, 1137.25-1138.50, 1144- 1146.50, 1152
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
21 Sep, 2009
Tuesday the day closed with only the Dow green, Dow +.06%, NDX -.01%, SPX -.25%, COMPX -.27% and RUT -.79%. Pretty neutral close with modest change overall and volume came in higher on the day for a distribution day on everything accept the Dow which is an accumulation day. The market has closed up 12 of the last 16, so one tiny down day isn't a big mark. The TRIN closed at 1.23 and the VIX at 22.35 sitting on top of the 10dma and has closed under the 200dma for the 10th consecutive day. Gold fell $6.80 to $1274 an ounce and oil down $1.25 to $74.94 a barrel.
The key levels I outlined last night is still in place. The Nasdaq composite closed just under 61.8% 2354.16 resistance, NDX just over 1982.51 78.6% (for the 2nd day), SPX just under 1140 61.8% and the Dow is just shy of 10776.40 70.7% resistance. Which leaves us still pausing under key resistance. The day started weak and saw a nice pop off the Fed's announcement, the market then fell into the bell to give up the Fed gains. Most of September has been tight, low volume upside movement and now we have the Fed out of the way, expiration last week and now to focus on the next 7 days holding the months gains. On that note, the week after expiration has been down 6 of the last 7. Keep that in mind as we get through the rest of the week.
The day closed with a spinning top for more indecision and still has some bearish overtones with this resistance holding us from moving higher. A retracement here would not hurt anything we have RSI over 70, stochastics are flat but in the mid 90's and the CCI is holding just over 100 line. Not showing a lot of momentum sitting that flat and off extremes. Futures have not tested the weekly pivots and today only the ES did test the daily. Which leaves the NQ not testing the daily for two days, the TF only did a daily test on Monday. I would expect the NQ to be drawn to the pivot on Wednesday and some rotation down into S1 levels from there.
With Wednesday being a light economic data day and following the fed, we can look for a digestive opening. The last two days have gapped up, Wednesday may break that trend and give us a move to the downside early. The market left a gap open on Mondays gap and go move, the close on Friday will be support for any retracement. Ahead of that gap is the mid range on the impulsive move from Monday (50% of Monday's range) for support. That would be an adequate pullback to pick up momentum, deeper would be into the gap.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Wednesday 10:00 HPI m/m, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 Existing Home Sales, 10:00 CB Leading Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Core Durable Goods Orders, 8:30 Durable Goods Orders, 9:00 FOMC Member Duke Speaks, 10:00 New Home Sales, 4:30 Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Wednesday pre market GIS, JEF, ZLC and after the bell BBBY, HIS, SCS. Thursday pre market RAD, SCHL, TXI and after the bell FINL, NKE, TIBX. Friday pre market KBH and nothing after the bell.
NQ (Nas 100 e-mini) Wednesday's pivot 1988, weekly pivot 1939.25. Support: 1981, 1975.25, 1969.25-1967.75, 1961, 1957.50, 1952.75 fills gap. Resistance: 1991.75, 1995.50, 2000.25, 2006.50-2009, 2012.50-2014
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
19 Sep, 2009
Friday left markets on a high note and the week on the highs. The RUT closed +.56%, COMPX +.53%, NDX +.39%, Dow +.12%, and the SPX +.08%. Volume on the NYSE and Nasdaq came in higher with the market closing out quadruple witching. The TRIN closed at 1.93 very bearish and the VIX at 22.01. That market breadth is alarming with the Nasdaq and the Russell closing on the highs. The Dow and S&P 500 closed mid range with spinning tops.
The RSI is at 69 on the NDX and 66 on the COMPX, stochastics are flat at 96, CCI is just hovering over the 100 line. With the SPX and Dow closing with spinning tops the RSI is a little lower at 63, stochastics starting to tilt down at 90, CCI just under 100 line. Friday's low should be watched carefully, especially on the Nasdaq for a break. If that low lets go the pullback is likely to come and be led by tech. Monday following quadruple witching is usually a slow start, but kicks in gear once that first half hour is over.
Futures did not test the weekly pivots last week and they had decreasing volume until Friday. That isn't normal on expiration week. Monday we could see participation start to pick up and let us see a little less chop. Es staying over 1110 is key, NQ over 1940.75 and the TF 643.70, we drop those levels we can look for a deeper pullback. The ES over 1131.25, NQ 1962, and TF 654.40 we can look for the bulls express train to really run.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Monday 10:00 NAHB Housing Market Index. Tuesday 8:30 Building Permits, 8:30 Housing Starts, 2:15 FOMC Statement, 2:15 Federal Funds Rate. Wednesday 10:00 HPI m/m, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 Existing Home Sales, 10:00 CB Leading Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Core Durable Goods Orders, 8:30 Durable Goods Orders, 9:00 FOMC Member Duke Speaks, 10:00 New Home Sales, 4:30 Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Monday pre market DFS, LEN and after the bell nothing due out. Tuesday pre market AZO, CCL, and after the bell ADBE, CTAS, DRI. Wednesday pre market GIS, JEF, ZLC and after the bell BBBY, HIS, SCS. Thursday pre market RAD, SCHL, TXI and after the bell FINL, NKE, TIBX. Friday pre market KBH and nothing after the bell.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
16 Sep, 2009
Thursday left the day modestly green on the Nas 100, Nas Composite and Dow with the S&P 500 slightly red. (NDX +.43%, Dow +.20%, COMPX +.08 %, SPX -.03%) The volume dropped again for a third day which is really unusual in the week of quadruple expiration. The TRIN closed at .81 bullish on the day and the VIX at 21.72. Gold closed up $4.90 to $1273.60 an ounce and oil down $1.45 to $74.57 a barrel.
The Nasdaq 100, Nasdaq Composite and Dow all traded slightly outside Wednesday's range leaving the S&P 500 the only key index trading an inside day. The SPX has 1140 overhead as a key fib resistance overhead once it clears 1129.24 8/9 swing high. Daily charts the stochastics have flattened off, CCI is into 100 line resistance, RSI is rising with the NDX as the highest at 68 others are as low as 59. Leaving us still with room to move but the flattened stochastics and the VIX so flat shows us the volatility is very quiet.
Into Friday we'll see September options expire and that usually brings in nice volume but a tighter range. Since the range was tight and volume has been absent it is hard to really say what the market will bring. After hours Texas Instruments (TXN) announced a buy back and the stock is up about 1.00, Research in Motion (RIMM) and Oracle (ORCL) are also trading up off earnings news. That took futures up and likely to hold throughout the night. Early data will either bring us an exhaustive gap to the upside or take the air out of the market. The markets are short term overbought and a gap would be really reaching up there.
I expect the market to move early on and after that first 90 minutes could certainly see some chop. A range bound market could finish the week to try and hold the gains. Being mid September and the nice lift we've seen thus far is reason to be cautious. Expiration in September is usually a very volatile day, but it is leading into Yom Kippur (Jewish holiday) and that could make for a very quiet day after the opening.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Friday 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 CPI, 9:55 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, 11:30 FOMC Member Tarullo Speaks.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Friday nothing due out.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
15 Sep, 2009
Wednesday kicked the day off very week continuing Tuesdays late day sell off. After that first half hour the bulls started to step in and shrug off the markets weakness. The day closed with the NDX +.57%, RUT + .50%, COMPX +.50%, Dow +.43% and SPX +.35%. Volume was hit and miss throughout the day with the NYSE closing lower like yesterday and the Nasdaq was equal to Tuesday's. Monday came in heavier than Friday but since then we've seen the NYSE fall off. Which is not normal at all on option expiration week, we usually see volume picking up throughout the week not diminishing. The TRIN closed at .92 neutral and the VIX at 22.10 for the 6th day under the 200dma. Gold closed down $3.00 to $1268.70 an ounce and oil down 78 cents to $76.02 a barrel.
The Nas Composite sits just under the 2309.43 8/9 swing highs. The Nas 100 moved just over the 8/9 1918.78 swing high and closed into 1939.77 6/21 highs. The S&P 500 sits just under 1129.24 8/9 swing high. The Dow closed just over 10552.60 78.6% and now has to confirm that break with another day over. The next big resistance for the Dow is at 10719.94. The lift on light volume concerns me and the Nasdaq did this lift on pretty equal volume while the NYSE was lighter. The Nasdaq had the hardware as the strongest sector and SOX as the weakest. That is one really split piece and I have to wonder if that volume was selling on SOX. Something to keep in mind especially with the neutral market breadth.
ES traded with a lag to the NQ today, most of that lag was energy, banks and brokers. Banks closed up 12 cents and brokers down 11 cents, very neutral day. Not a lot of change or movement since the Basel III news on Monday. Which has left banks just under the 200dma and brokers well below the 200dma and taking very small steps up. The sentiment is very concerning with everyone waiting on a pullback that can lead to these creeping higher moves for awhile, we had this in July with the advance after the long weekend. Which led to the sell off in August and now we've climbed back near those July highs.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Thursday 8:30 PPI, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Core PPI, 8:30 Current Account, 9:00 TIC Long Term Purchases, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 CPI, 9:55 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, 11:30 FOMC Member Tarullo Speaks.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Thursday pre market DFS, FDX, PIR, SMTS and after the bell CKR, ORCL, RIMM. Friday nothing due out.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
14 Sep, 2009
Tuesday left the day split with the Nasdaq 100 and Nasdaq Composite trading higher and the S&P 500 and Dow trading lower. The NDX +.36%, COMPX +.17%, SPX -.07%, Dow -.16%, and RUT -.46% on the day. Volume was also split with the NYSE lighter and the Nasdaq higher on the day. The TRIN closed at 1.05 and the VIX at 21.56, still under the 200dma. Gold moved up $24.00 $1271.10 an ounce and oil down 39 cents $76.80 a barrel.
The Nas Composite sits just under the 2309.43 8/9 swing highs. The Nas 100 moved just over the 8/9 1918.78 swing high and has 1939.77 6/21 highs just overhead. The S&P 500 sits just under 1129.24 8/9 swing high. The Dow still sits into 10552.60 78.6% resistance. The NDX and COMPX closed well beyond the upper Bollinger band (SPX and Dow did not), RSI into the 66's, stochastics 95-96 and the CCI right over 100 line. That leaves the market short term overbought and with the last minute selling we saw come in on futures the market seems to have gotten that message.
Futures started seeing profiting taking in the last 40 minutes, finishing the day right into the swing low we put in at 2:00. Certainly not as bullish as the day was looking to be with the push into the highs and holding over the prior days close. Showing the gain and holding the prior days gains is a bullish sign, but seeing profit taking as heavy as we did is a little red flag for us coming into Wednesday.
Futures did test the pivots on the day, still no look into the weekly which are still under us. With the early data at 8:30 and the profit taking we saw late day. We will look for a weaker opening and see if buyers step in and take a pullback as an opportunity to buy or if we see this resistance we ran into as the line in the sand to hold the market in range. So far September is making decent gains, but now we are mid week on quadruple witching, the volatility should pick up speed. That speed maybe an out of control train to be watchful of.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Wednesday 8:30 Empire State Manufacturing Index, 8:30 Import Prices m/m, 9:15 Capacity Utilization Rate, 9:15 Industrial Production, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 8:30 PPI, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Core PPI, 8:30 Current Account, 9:00 TIC Long Term Purchases, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 CPI, 9:55 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, 11:30 FOMC Member Tarullo Speaks.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Wednesday pre market nothing due out and after the bell AIR, APOG. Thursday pre market DFS, FDX, PIR, SMTS and after the bell CKR, ORCL, RIMM. Friday nothing due out.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
13 Sep, 2009
Monday rallied off the opening and closed on the days highs with the RUT +2.48%, COMPX +1.92%, NDX +1.54%, SPX +1.11% and Dow +.77% on the day. The volume increased over Friday's for an accumulation day on the NYSE and Nasdaq. Futures also left an accumulation day, keep in mind Friday's volume was dismal so it wasn't hard to outpace. The TRIN closed at .50 bullish and the VIX at 21.21 back at levels we haven't seen since May 3rd. Gold closed up 30 cents to $1236.80 and oil up 74 cents to $77.19 a barrel.
The Nas Composite moved through the 200dma and now sits just under the 2309.43 8/9 swing highs. The Nas 100 cleared the 1918.78 8/9 swing high and is just into 1922.14 resistance. The S&P 500 came through the 200dma and now sits just under 1129.24 8/9 swing high. The Dow sits 90 points over the 200dma and now sits into 10552.60 78.6% resistance. Each index closed well beyond the upper Bollinger band, RSI into the low 60's, stochastics 93-94 and the CCI right into 100 line. That leaves the market short term overbought and this gap and go day really left the Monday crowds flat footed for joining in. Keep in mind this is quadruple witching week and that can take some turns.
Futures did not test the daily pivots and also left the weekly WAY below us. That leaves us with a big target down below us. A gap up would be very exhaustive for this market and reason to look for a pullback early on. Because we have early data the market may see some early movement and spoil that gap up move. Any negative news would let some air out, the market uses that as a good excuse to move. I would expect a break of Monday's low to look as low as Friday's close to fill the gap and hold near that level for support. We drop Friday's close the dip could be as much as the weekly pivots (ES 1098, NQ 1878.75, TF 634).
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Tuesday 8:30 Core Retail Sales, 8:30 Retail Sales, 10:00 Business Inventories, 10:00 IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism. Wednesday 8:30 Empire State Manufacturing Index, 8:30 Import Prices m/m, 9:15 Capacity Utilization Rate, 9:15 Industrial Production, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 8:30 PPI, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Core PPI, 8:30 Current Account, 9:00 TIC Long Term Purchases, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 CPI, 9:55 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, 11:30 FOMC Member Tarullo Speaks.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Tuesday pre market BBY, KR and after the bell MDZ, PLL. Wednesday pre market nothing due out and after the bell AIR, APOG. Thursday pre market DFS, FDX, PIR, SMTS and after the bell CKR, ORCL, RIMM. Friday nothing due out.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
12 Sep, 2009
Friday delivered an up day across the broader markets, with the SPX +.48%, Dow +.45%, NDX +.32%, RUT +.28% and COMPX +.28%. Futures were an inside day in a very narrow range, certainly not an exciting Friday. Volume fell off again to close out the shortened week. The week closed on the highs with a modest gain. The TRIN closed at .77 bullish on the day and the VIX at 21.99 closing under the 200dma for the third day. Gold fell $2.90 to $1248 an ounce and oil rallied $2.14 to $76.39 a barrel.
The Nas composite sits just under the 200dma and still has an open gap at 2277.17 from August 10th. The Nas 100 has 1899.24 gap open and is into the upper Bollinger band on the daily chart. The S&P 500 sits into 1110.11 78.6% and 1115.63 200dma just overhead. The Dow spent the entire week into the 200dma and closed just 11 points over it. The Dows next task is to stay over the 200dma and onto 10552.60 resistance.
Futures narrow range inside day on Friday leaves us with a range to break. The ES closing over 1103 leave us to look for 1115 and to stay over 1103 now for that leg up. Staying over 1103 would be the easy road to the next leg up, but we could see the ES retrace to 1093.25-1089.50 support first. The NQ closed over 1877.50 for the second day and still leaves us looking to break 1895.50 and onto 1914.75. Keeping over 1877.5 will make that road a lot easier. A drop of 1877.5 and onto 1860.75 for support.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Monday 2:00 Federal Budget Balance. Tuesday 8:30 Core Retail Sales, 8:30 Retail Sales, 10:00 Business Inventories, 10:00 IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism. Wednesday 8:30 Empire State Manufacturing Index, 8:30 Import Prices m/m, 9:15 Capacity Utilization Rate, 9:15 Industrial Production, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 8:30 PPI, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Core PPI, 8:30 Current Account, 9:00 TIC Long Term Purchases, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 CPI, 9:55 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, 11:30 FOMC Member Tarullo Speaks.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Monday pre market MTRX and after the bell GCOM. Tuesday pre market BBY, KR and after the bell MDZ, PLL. Wednesday pre market nothing due out and after the bell AIR, APOG. Thursday pre market DFS, FDX, PIR, SMTS and after the bell CKR, ORCL, RIMM. Friday nothing due out.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
9 Sep, 2009
Thursday closed the day green across the broader markets with the SPX +.48%, NDX +.32%, COMPX +.32%, Dow +.32% and RUT +.05%. Volume was well below Wednesday's for a very digestive tone on the day which tends to go with Rosh Hashanah and rollover. The TRIN closed at .71 bullish on the day and the VIX at 22.81. Gold closed down $7.00 to $1250.50 an ounce and oil closed down 42 cents to $74.25 a barrel.
The SPX and Dow tested the highs from Friday and Tuesday, leaving that swing high still in place as resistance. The NDX and COMPX gapped into new highs on the week and held the gains. The NDX and COMPX are into the upper Bollinger band on the daily charts and both left hanging man candlesticks. The Dow and the SPX left shooting stars on the day but not into the upper Bollinger bands. Daily stochastics on each index is starting to turn down, RSI and MACD aren't doing anything to indicate we are dropping at this point. This light volume market is just on hold until next week.
Futures rolled over to the December contract today, volume was not as heavy as we like to see. But I would expect to see more positioning into Friday. Usually we see Thursday as the big day, but as with everything this week we have a delay with the market on hold. Four day weeks and Rosh Hashanah are a really poor combination for us to see anything normal. 1102.75 is a key level on the ES, support is 1089.50 and onto 1078.25. The NQ cleared 1877.5 and now has 1914.75 resistance, support is 1868. Look for Friday to be active in the first hour and that is likely to be the best of the action unless something takes hold for some drifting. Be prepared for a slow quiet day.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Friday 10:00 Wholesale Inventories.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Friday pr�t market BRC, LULU and nothing after the bell.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Friday's pivot 1100, weekly pivot 1082. Intraday support: 1095.75, 1093.25, 1089.50, 1085-1084.50 fills gap, 1078.25. Resistance: 1102.75 78.6%, 1107.75, 1115 fills gap, 1121 fills gap-1122 swing high.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
8 Sep, 2009
Wednesday closed the day green across the broader markets with the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) leading the way. NDX +1.26%, COMPX +.90%, RUT +.78, SPX +.64% and Dow up .44% on the day. Banks were the leading sector followed closely by the internets and we have Semis and Brokers on the bottom of the sector list. Volume came in heavier than Tuesday's for an accumulation day across the NYSE and Nasdaq. The TRIN closed at .82 bullish on the day and the VIX at 23.25 after a very narrow range, showing very little volatility. Gold fell $1.50 to $1257.80 and oil saw a lift of $.58 to $74.67 a barrel on the day.
The days gains kept the market in the range we set on Friday and now can't seem to leave. The week is marking time waiting for the week to end. Thursday volume is likely to be hit and miss, several outside forces will be hitting the market. The Jewish holiday Rosh Hashanah and futures rollover is likely to keep things slow. We do have economic data to help balance things out for us, but keep in mind it maybe very hit and miss for us.
The ES and TF did test the daily pivots, but the NQ did not. That still leaves no weekly test for any of the indexes this week as we head into the second half of the week. For futures we will start to trade the December contract at the opening, which is the letter Z (we've been trading September U). That will split the volume and can often be a little jittery in that first hour. Keeping us on our hands, but sometimes it is very smooth transition and just light. Look for 1102.75 to test and move onto 1115 area if we clear that. Staying over 1074 will keep the bulls in the house. The NQ 1887.25 and onto 1897.75 for the NQ resistance and support is 1842.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Thursday 8:30 Trade Balance, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, 11:00 Crude Oil Inventories. Friday 10:00 Wholesale Inventories.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Thursday premarket PNY and after the bell NSM, SWHC. Friday pr�t market BRC, LULU and nothing after the bell.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
7 Sep, 2009
Tuesday opened the week on a down note with the Russell 2000 (RUT) -2.18%, S&P 500 (SPX) -1.14, Nasdaq Composite (COMPX) -1.11 and the Dow -1.02% on the day. Giving up Friday's gains and there is still some room until we fall into Thursday's gap fill. The markets volume was lighter for the NYSE and heavier for the Nasdaq, futures were all lighter on the day. The TRIN closed at 2.06 for the 22nd time with an over 2 close on the year. The VIX closed back over the 200dma at 23.80. Gold closed up $8.10 to $1259.20 and oil down 51 cents to $74.09 a barrel.
Erasing the gains from Friday brought the Nas Composite back on top of the 50dma and the NDX back just under the 200dma. The SPX and Dow are still under 200dma and over 50dma's. Today just brought us back in range and retraced some of last weeks light volume rise. Banks and Semi's were the weakest sectors on the day, which at least didn't discriminate between tech and financials. It was equal selling and no one was left out.
Futures did not test the weekly pivots and only the NQ touched the daily. That leaves the ES with 4 consecutive days of no pivot test, I looked back and that hasn't happened all year. We've only missed 2 day one time this year. Leaving us to hone in on the pivot Wednesday as a rotational ledge and also the weekly are likely to get a look. With no data in the morning we could see a flat opening and get little movement off the opening. That would leave us to bracket the first hour and look for a break of that range for follow through on the day.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Wednesday 2:00 Beige Book, 3:00 Consumer Credit. Thursday 8:30 Trade Balance, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, 11:00 Crude Oil Inventories. Friday 10:00 Wholesale Inventories.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Wednesday pre market JTX, TLB, TITN, UNFI, and after the bell MW, GAME, SHFL. Thursday premarket PNY and after the bell NSM, SWHC. Friday pr�t market BRC, LULU and nothing after the bell.
NQ (Nas 100 e-mini) Wednesday's pivot 1860.75, weekly pivot 1831. Support: 1855.25, 1851, 1848, 1841.25, 1839.25 fills gap, 1834.25, 1829, 1824.75. Resistance: 1860.50, 1864.50, 1867.50, 1871.25, 1879.75-1880.75 78.6%, 1890.25, 1896.50 fills gap, 1913.75 fills gap, 1918
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
6 Sep, 2009
Friday closed the day green across the broader markets, the week closed up and left the market back to mid August levels. Volume reflected the markets lack of participation going into the long weekend with very light volume. The VIX closed 16.5% off the 10dma at 21.31 and the TRIN very bullish at .34. Gold closed the day down $3.30 to $1250.10 and oil up 42 cents to $74.60 a barrel.
The week left a nice hammers that engulfed the last 2 � weeks of action, the bulls need to show continuation at this point to confirm that with another week higher. The daily charts are still possibly forming a right shoulder for the inverted head and shoulders pattern. We've been watching this all week and the advance last week brought the price action off the swing low nicely. The neckline is up at 10719.94 Dow, 1918.78 NDX, 2309.43 COMPX, and 1129.24 on the SPX. The SPX has the 200dma about 11 points away (1115.62) after clearing the 50dma on Thursday that was a big step and now the 200dma is the next step which is very near that neckline. The Dow is just 3 points off the 200dma (10451.22), the NDX closed 8 points over the 200dma and the COMPX is about 37 points under the 200dma (2271.80). Leaving each index just within striking distance of that key moving average.
I don't like that the Wednesday, Thursday and Friday lift was on light volume, that is expected into a holiday weekend, but we did just bleed up. Friday and Wednesday left gaps open and that usually requires retracement to find additional buyers. The SOX closed right into 330.71 38.2% and Hardware sits just under 38.2% 283.33 resistance. Brokers need to clear105.83 resistance and banks are nearing the $47.08 50dam with 48.36 200dma just beyond that. Expect the market to have a slow start coming off a three day weekend and for folks to be looking around to start positioning. The week doesn't always find a lot of direction following Labor Day because we have Rosh Hashanah holiday this week. That can keep volumes light and keep us counting down the days to get us to mid September to find normal activity. The week should be better than last week though, so don't get in a big hurry.
Futures did not test the daily pivots on Wednesday, Thursday or Friday, it is very unusual but a lot of it was the gaps not backfilling at all so they were left untested. The weekly did test Monday, so that did stay orderly. The ES has 1108.50 as a key resistance area and then onto 1127.75 is the bigger target. Support at 1089.5 gap fill and 1078.75 will be key to stay above to see that higher ground. The NQ 1880.75 resistance and onto 1918 should be in our sights. Support at 1847 and 1837.25 fills the gap for support. The TF 653.30 resistance and onto 671.50 is a nice lift for the small caps resistance. Support is 632.40 gap fill and 625.50 -622.10 support.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
2 Sep, 2009
Thursday closed the day higher with the Russell 2000 (RUT) +1.16%, Nas 100 (NDX) +1.12%, Nas Composite (COMPX) +1.06, S&P 500 (SPX) +.90 and the Dow +.49% on the day. The rally came on very weak volume and didn't dress to impress with the gains. Rising on light volume after a big advance like we saw on Wednesday is suspect, especially into the job's data. The VIX closed at 23.19 just under the 200dma and 10% under the 10dma. The TRIN closed very bullish at .46. Gold closed up $4.70 to $1257.80 and oil up $1.11 up $75.02 a barrel.
The Nas Composite and Nas 100 closed into 50dma 2204.30 and 1830.28. The S&P 500 and the Dow closed over the 50dma after spending 14 days under the key moving average. With the turn in the last two days the market has left a higher low and is forming a right shoulder in an inverted head and shoulders pattern. The market has to return to the August highs to get to the neckline on the bullish pattern and we are only half way there. So plenty of time to form this shoulder and move around before the bulls can really take hold. Which means plenty can happen, but having said that to form a shoulder on light volume is fine. I expected a light volume digestive day and other than the fast the digestive was a slow lift it delivered. I would have preferred an inside day to digest Wednesday's move. Which leaves the market short term overbought going into the job's data.
After the bell there were rumors that the Obama economic team is looking at another stimulus package. I'm not sure if we'll hear more on that into Friday, but we'll be listening. If the job's data comes in worse than expected we are likely to see the market dip quickly. Once the 10:00 data is out the market could lighten up and get really quiet leading into the long weekend. Monday the markets are closed for Labor Day and that is usually a show stopper on folks stepping away early to start the weekend. Keep an eye on oil, if Hurricane Earl increases in intensity and a broader area is evacuated that could be the catalyst to drive the market higher once we settle off the job's data release.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Friday 8:30 NonFarm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings, 10:00 ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Friday pre market CPB and nothing after the bell.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
1 Sep, 2009
Wednesday closed the day up huge with the Russell 2000 (RUT) +3.80%, Nas 100 (NDX) +2.97%, Nas Composite (COMPX) +2.97%, S&P 500 (SPX) 2.95%, and the Dow +2.54%. Volume came in mixed with the NYSE lighter and the Nasdaq higher on the day. The late day grind killed the volume that was outpacing for the first half of the day. The TRIN closed very bullish at .26 and the VIX at 23.89. Gold closed down $2.50 to $1247.70 an ounce and oil up $1.99 to $73.91 a barrel.
The days lift took the market back to August 23rd levels and out of the range we spent the last six days in. The drop off the August 9th highs to the lows on August 27th had very little retracement, todays gain retraced at least 38.2% of those losses all in a single move. That leaves us with an expanded move that now needs a digestion day to catch our breath. That doesn't mean the market will deliver that much needed rest but we will certainly keep in mind things could be very digestive and a narrow range. That would also leave us with a quiet day ahead of the Job's data on Friday morning.
The futures indexes did not test the daily pivots. They did close outside of R3, which is very extended and unusual. That leaves us to look for some retracement early on and a move to retest the days high. Be very cautious if the market can't break Wednesday's high and holds range, that would be the first clue the market is holding range for a narrow day. ES has 1085.50 resistance and then into 1092.50. Support is 1069.25 to keep handy and in mind on any retracement, if that doesn't hold we could see 1061 yesterday's low test.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Revised NonFarm Productivity, 8:30 Revised Unit Labor Costs, 10:00 Pending Home Sales, 10:00 Factory Orders, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 NonFarm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings, 10:00 ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Thursday pre market DLM, MOV, SCMR, and after the bell COO, FNSR, HRB, SEAC, TTWO, ULTA. Friday pre market CPB and nothing after the bell.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
31 Aug, 2009
Tuesday closed the day split with modest wins and losses. The Russell 2000 (RUT) +.05%, Dow +.04%, and the S&P 500 (SPX) +.03% and the Nas 100 (NDX) -.26% and Nas Composite (COMPX) -.28% on the day. The day closed in the range the market has held for 6 days now. Each index closed the day with a spinning top, mid range very neutral. The TRIN closed at .82 and the VIX at 26.05. Gold closed up $11.20 to $1250.40 an ounce and oil down $2.78 to $71.92 a barrel.
With closing 6 days in range the key support is still below the broader markets and the market continues to wind in this spot for a move. The line in the sand support still holds with the Nas Composite over 2113.88 78.6%, NDX 1746.85 78.6%, SPX 1036.23 78.6% and 10036.70 61.8% on the Dow (charts below) after all testing and holding today. The market is still a possible inverted head and shoulders if we hold this support and keep this right shoulder forming to turn up. The other possibility that I outlined last night is still intact too with the bear flag. Leaving those two possibilities still on the table as long as the market chops in range.
With the volume increasing today, it was the last day of the month. We will look for that to continue into Wednesday and even pick up each day as we go into Friday's job's data. That doesn't mean the range will change Wednesday, but the market is wound for a move. With the 6 days of digestion keep in mind that the market likes to move on odd numbers, will that be 7 or hold us still? With the SOX breaking the years low, there is some real weakness in the semi's. Banks are also right on the years low 43.30 2/5/10 and that didn't help to keep the bulls around today either.
Into Wednesday economic data will once again be the focus and provide the market with a glimpse into what Job's are doing when we hear from ADP. With the neutral tone the market is holding we still don't have a lot of bias. The A/D and U/D were up and down, leaving us with little to work with as we move into Wednesday. Until we leave this range we remain unbiased for direction.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Wednesday 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts, 8:15 ADP NonFarm Employment Change, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI, 10:00 Construction Spending, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing Prices, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, Vehicle Sales all day. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Revised NonFarm Productivity, 8:30 Revised Unit Labor Costs, 10:00 Pending Home Sales, 10:00 Factory Orders, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 NonFarm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings, 10:00 ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Wednesday pre market HNZ, JOSB, JOYG, ZLC and after the bell HOV, MATK. Thursday pre market DLM, MOV, SCMR, and after the bell COO, FNSR, HRB, SEAC, TTWO, ULTA. Friday pre market CPB and nothing after the bell.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
30 Aug, 2009
Monday left the day weary and kept the indexes in the five day range. The indexed closed down with the NDX -1.09%, Dow -1.38%, SPX -1.47, COMPX -1.56 and the RUT -2.43%. The markets volume fell along with the indexes to come in about half of Friday's. That is terrible participation, but it is likely to be the lightest we see this week. The VIX closed at 27.21 on the days high and the TRIN at 3.62 very bearish. Gold closed up $1.50 to $1239.40 and oil down 47 cents to $74.75 a barrel.
The five day range is still holding the markets and the key support is just below the broader markets still. By holding range the market is still in the same formation Friday left. The Nas Composite holds over 2113.88 78.6%, NDX 1746.85 78.6%, SPX 1036.23 78.6% and 10036.70 61.8% on the Dow (charts below) after all testing and holding this past week. Those are key levels of support and still holds as the line in the sand for the bulls. If we hold here a very symmetrical shoulder could form for an inverted head and shoulders on the daily charts. The pattern triggered would signify a higher low and a bullish pattern by holding here and turning back up. However, the other possibility with this 5 day digestion which began with a gap down on the 24th could be a bear flag forming. Low level digestion after an impulsive opening
The futures indexes did test the daily and weekly pivots early in the day. It wasn't until the final hour that we broke the 10ish point range the ES has played in throughout the day. The final hour sell off expanded our range and left us on the lows at the close. The ES broke 1054 and now has 1042.75 support nearby. The NQ dropped 1775 and now we watch for 1754.75 to test. The TF fell through 605.70 and now 598.40 is nearing as a key level. The sell off's light volume leaves the market more neutral than we would be if there was volume on the drop. This light volume is due in part because summer is coming to an end and we are leading into a 3 day weekend.
Friday brings the big economic data, so I expect volume to increase throughout the week and we'll watch for the bear flag or the inverted head and shoulders, two complete opposites for the market. Leaving us at the line in the sand and very neutral. The range bound market will eventually move, but needs to do so with volume to mean anything and hold any weight for continuation.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Tuesday 9:00 S&P/CS Composite 20 HPI y/y, 9:45 Chicago PMI, 10:00 CB Consumer Confidence, 2:00 FOMC Meeting Minutes. Wednesday 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts, 8:15 ADP NonFarm Employment Change, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI, 10:00 Construction Spending, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing Prices, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, Vehicle Sales all day. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Revised NonFarm Productivity, 8:30 Revised Unit Labor Costs, 10:00 Pending Home Sales, 10:00 Factory Orders, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 NonFarm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings, 10:00 ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Tuesday pre market DG, ENER, ISLE and after the bell APSG, DAC. Wednesday pre market HNZ, JOSB, JOYG, ZLC and after the bell HOV, MATK. Thursday pre market DLM, MOV, SCMR, and after the bell COO, FNSR, HRB, SEAC, TTWO, ULTA. Friday pre market CPB and nothing after the bell.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
29 Aug, 2009
Friday closed the day green across the broader markets leaving the RUT +2.83%, Dow +1.65%, SPX +1.65%, COMPX +.164% and the NDX up +1.27% on the day. Volume closed higher on the day for the only accumulation day in the past week. The week did close modestly red on the broader markets. The TRIN closed at .53 bullish on the day and the VIX at 24.42. Oil closed up $18.3 at $75.19 on the day and gold closed up $4.80 to $1242.50 a barrel.
The daily and weekly index charts left nice support hammers on the day/week. The Nas Composite holds over 2113.88 78.6%, NDX 1746.85 78.6%, SPX 1036.23 78.6% and 10036.70 61.8% on the Dow (charts below) after all testing and holding this past week. Those are key levels of support and still holds as the line in the sand for the bulls. If we hold here a very symmetrical shoulder could form for an inverted head and shoulders on the daily charts. Would signify a higher low and a bullish pattern by holding here and turning back up.
The ES closed over 1060.50 38.2%, staying over it will be the key to higher ground for the ES now. Keeping over 1060.50 leads us to 1075 and onto 1085.50. Support is 1054 and 1042.75 as key areas. The NQ closed just over 38.2% 1789.25 by the skin of its teeth and now holding over will be key. The next steps up are 1817 and onto 1837. Support on the NQ is 1775 and 1754.75. The TF has 619 and onto 623.10 and 633. Support is 605.70 and 598.40 on the TF. A lot of data this week with Job's being the big carrot at the end of the week. The week will close out August and it will also lead the market into the last big weekend of summer. Labor day marks the end of summer and will hopefully bring participation back to normal levels in the market.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Monday 8:30 Core PCE Price Index, 8:30 Personal Spending, 8:30 Personal Income, 1:30 FOMC Member Bullard Speaks. Tuesday 9:00 S&P/CS Composite 20 HPI y/y, 9:45 Chicago PMI, 10:00 CB Consumer Confidence, 2:00 FOMC Meeting Minutes. Wednesday 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts, 8:15 ADP NonFarm Employment Change, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI, 10:00 Construction Spending, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing Prices, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, Vehicle Sales all day. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Revised NonFarm Productivity, 8:30 Revised Unit Labor Costs, 10:00 Pending Home Sales, 10:00 Factory Orders, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 NonFarm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings, 10:00 ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Monday pre market nothing and after the bell SEED, WINN. Tuesday pre market DG, ENER, ISLE and after the bell APSG, DAC. Wednesday pre market HNZ, JOSB, JOYG, ZLC and after the bell HOV, MATK. Thursday pre market DLM, MOV, SCMR, and after the bell COO, FNSR, HRB, SEAC, TTWO, ULTA. Friday pre market CPB and nothing after the bell.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
26 Aug, 2009
Thursday closed the day to the downside with the NDX off -1.22%, COMPX -1.06 %, RUT -.84%, SPX -.76 % and Dow -.73% on the day. The volume was down today making for another day of diminishing participation. The days drop erased most of yesterday's gains in a slow motion retracement. The TRIN closed at 1.80 bearish on the day and the VIX at 27.37. Gold closed flat on the day at $1241.30 and oil up 84 cents to $73.36 a barrel.
The day started out looking bullish and strong over Wednesday's high. But after that first hour the bulls started to walk away and let the market sink slowly. The first hours volume was light and didn't really impress the bulls with any strength to stay around. Breaking back through Wednesday's high and retracing into 78.6% fib support doesn't look great for the market. That leaves Wednesday as a one day wonder basically and now the volume is even lighter. We can expect Friday to just try to keep the support intact below us. The Nas composite fell into 2113.88 78.6% fib support, NDX 1764.13 70.7%, SPX 1045.56 70.7%, and the Dow 10036 61.8% fib support. I don't look at 70.7% as a key fib level, so the SPX and the NDX can still move onto 78.6% 1036.23 SPX and 1746.85 78.6% as key levels. If we drop there it is likely to accelerate to the downside and end Friday on a REAL red note, which would also end the week on a negative tone. Data isn't likely to be real upbeat, but Bernanke could stop the bleeding from negative data when he speaks at 10.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Friday 8:30 Prelim GDP, 8:30 Prelim GDP Price Index, 9:55 Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Revised UoM Inflation Expectations, 10:00 Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Friday pre market FRO, TIF and nothing after the bell.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Friday's pivot 1049.50, weekly pivot 1077. Intraday support: 1042, 1038-1037, 1030.50-1029.50 78.6% on daily, 1024.25 Resistance: 1049.50, 1053.75, 1056.50, 1060.50 38.2%, 1065.50 fills gap-1067.75, 1075, 1080.50
NQ (Nas 100 e-mini) Friday's pivot 1777.25, weekly pivot 1829.75. Support: 1765.25, 1758.50, 1750.50, 1747, 1744.75, 1736.50. Resistance: 1778.75, 1782.75, 1787, 1793, 1798, 1804.75, 1809.50 fills gap-1810.25, 1818, 1822.50-1824.75 TF (Russell 2000 e-mini) Friday's pivot 602.50, weekly pivot 614.40. Support: 596.10, 593.90, 592, 590.70, 589.70, 586.70, 584.80, 583.50, 581.60, 575.10. Resistance: 602.60, 604.30, 605.90, 607.20, 608.30, 611.20, 612.90, 615.20.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
25 Aug, 2009
Wednesday recovered Tuesday's losses and did so on light volume. Once again we miss the participation level for confirmation on a reversal despite the day leaving an engulfing candle. Dow closed +.19 %, SPX +.32%, COMPX +.83%, NDX +.87% and RUT +1.55% on the day. The TRIN closed at 1.14 near the days lows and the A/D and U/D closed on the days highs. The VIX moved from 28.92 highs to close at 26.70 just off the days low. Gold closed up $6.60 to $1240 and oil closed up 89 cents to $72.52 a barrel.
The day was really slow and didn't take hold until financials finally came in for some buying, late day seemed to be pushed by shorts doing some covering. After 5 days down it was time for a little upside, but remember it was on light volume. The support I outlined last night is still in place so keep it handy. The Nas composite fell into 2113.88 78.6% fib support, NDX 1764.13 70.7%, SPX 1045.56 70.7%, and the Dow 10036 61.8% fib support. I don't look at 70.7% as a key fib level, so the SPX and the NDX can still move onto 78.6% 1036.23 SPX and 1746.85 78.6% as key levels.
The ES closed over 1054.75 and we still have 1058 resistance to clear before the bulls can run. The NQ has 1795.50 and the TF 604.30 and onto 611.20 for a key area to clear. The futures did test the pivots today and tomorrow we look for the 1050 ES, 1782.50 NQ and TF 598.80 to test as well. I liked the run we had today but it was more of an oversold bounce because of the missing volume. Until we see a day with volume it is hard not to be suspect of the upside. Early strength tomorrow will be key to see buyers stay around, without it this maybe a one day wonder of a lift.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 Mortgage Delinquencies, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Prelim GDP, 8:30 Prelim GDP Price Index, 9:55 Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Revised UoM Inflation Expectations, 10:00 Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Thursday pre market DHT, FRED, PDCO and after the bell DLLR, JCG, NOVL, OVTI. Friday pre market FRO, TIF and nothing after the bell.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
24 Aug, 2009
Tuesday fell hard off the opening and ended the day just off the lows. The NDX closed off -1.82, COMPX -1.66, SPX -1.45, Dow -1.31 and RUT -1.17 on the day. The volume increased today which leaves a distribution day on the NYSE and Nasdaq. The TRIN closed at 2.21 bearish on the day and the VIX at 27.46 over last weeks highs. Gold closed up $3.70 to $1232.20 and oil down $1.47 to $71.3 a barrel.
The day left a gap overhead and a weak market took out last weeks lows. The Nas composite fell into 2113.88 78.6% fib support, NDX 1764.13 70.7%, SPX 1045.56 70.7%, and the Dow 10036 61.8% fib support. I don't look at 70.7% as a key fib level, so the SPX and the NDX can still move onto 78.6% 1036.23 SPX and 1746.85 78.6% as key levels. The Dow did blink below 10000, but that didn't seem to phase the market with a quick look and snapped back over. The daily charts all the key indexes closed under lower Bollinger band, but nothing else is oversold.
With the over 2 TRIN and the relentless selling we can look for some upside to retrace some of the losses. An early move up would give the market a quick breath and give us room to move. The TF look for 600.20-602.10 resistance, ES 1054.75 and onto 1058, NQ 1780.25 and to 1795.50 resistance. If we clear those levels a lot more upside is very likely to come in. A drop of Tuesday's low a drop under 1043.50 and onto 1038 would be key on the ES. NQ 1762.50 and onto 1745 support. We'll watch volume to continue to increase and to key off the economic data. Tuesday left the market weak off disappointing data on Existing Homes and now we have to look to Durable goods and New Home Sales. Because the market already dropped off existing homes the new homes would have to be really horrible to see that do additional damage. The market is ahead of that now and won't take it as badly if we come in light. A number in line or close would be a breath of fresh air for buyers.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Wednesday 8:30 Core Durable Goods Orders, 8:30 Durable Goods Orders, 10:00 New Home Sales, 10:00 HPI m/m, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 Mortgage Delinquencies, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Prelim GDP, 8:30 Prelim GDP Price Index, 9:55 Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Revised UoM Inflation Expectations, 10:00 Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Wednesday pre market AEO, ISLE, TOL and after the bell JDSU, SMTC, TIVO. Thursday pre market DHT, FRED, PDCO and after the bell DLLR, JCG, NOVL, OVTI. Friday pre market FRO, TIF and nothing after the bell.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
23 Aug, 2009
Monday closed the day down -1.32% on the RUT, NDX -.95%, COMPX -.92%, SPX -.40% and the Dow -.38%. The days volume was light coming in under Friday's on everything accept the NQ. The TRIN closed at 1.29 near the highs on the day and the VIX closed at 25.66 just over the 25.23 10dma. Gold closed the day down 20 cents to $1228.60 and oil down 73 cents to $73.11 a barrel.
The late day fall took hold and with the light volume it is very easy to push things to extremes quickly. That is likely to be the tone this week on and off anyway. Tuesday the economic data picks up and that is likely to help with volume and volatility. The drop brought the indexes to hold just over last weeks lows. Those lows are key support and a drop there would let the market see a much bigger fall into 10036.70 for the Dow, 2113.88 COMPX, 1783.60 NDX and onto 1746.85, the SPX 1056.11 and onto 1036.23. The momentum is still to the downside with the indicators still open to the downside, last weeks lows are the only wall in the way.
Futures did test daily and weekly pivots today, now the ES has 1050.50 support to watch, a break there leads us to look much deeper to 1029.5. The resistance we will need back over 1086.50 to look for any upside conviction. The NQ 1782 key support and resistance is 1846.50. The TF has 584.30 7/7 swing low and 626.30 resistance. I am looking for a weak start on the day and it won't take long to be oversold with the drop that ended the day. Then we'll look for a bounce to come in off a weak start on the day.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Tuesday 10:00 Existing Home Sales, 10:00 Richmond Manufacturing Index. Wednesday 8:30 Core Durable Goods Orders, 8:30 Durable Goods Orders, 10:00 New Home Sales, 10:00 HPI m/m, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 Mortgage Delinquencies, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Prelim GDP, 8:30 Prelim GDP Price Index, 9:55 Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Revised UoM Inflation Expectations, 10:00 Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Tuesday pre market BKS, BIG, MDT, and after the bell PSUN, RUE, PAY. Wednesday pre market AEO, ISLE, TOL and after the bell JDSU, SMTC, TIVO. Thursday pre market DHT, FRED, PDCO and after the bell DLLR, JCG, NOVL, OVTI. Friday pre market FRO, TIF and nothing after the bell.
NQ (Nas 100 e-mini) Tuesday's pivot 1819, weekly pivot 1829.75. Support: 1807, 1804, 1800, 1797.50, 1791, 1786.50, 1783. Resistance: 1819.25, 1826.75, 1833.50, 1840.25, 1845.50, 1850, 1856.50, 1859, 1866.25, 1873
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
21 Aug, 2009
Friday closed the day split with modest wins and losses on the day. The NDX and Nas Composite closed up and the SPX, RUT and Dow closed down. The week closed the same way with the split in the indexes. Volume was also split on the day with the NYSE higher and the Nasdaq slightly lower. It was a pretty lackluster day for options expiration and the last one of the summer. The TRIN closed at 1.69 bearish and the VIX 25.49 on the days lows still over the 23.36 200dma and 24.88 10dma. Gold closed down $5.40 to $1230 and oil down 98 cents to $73.45 an ounce.
The narrow range week and day was not normal for expiration week, but fairly normal for August. August just sets a try to get through the month and do so without a lot of damage on either side of the fence in the light volume. The upcoming week is full of economic data and very little to worry about for earnings. The SPX and the Dow hung onto 50% fib support off the July 1 lows to July 27th highs swing. The Nas Composite and Nas 100 continue to hold just over 61.8% fib support. The week's low is basically where we need to see the market hold over on each index to continue holding this support.
The ES has 1075.75, NQ 1829.5 and TF 612.5 38.2% resistance to clear to see any move higher. TF 604.10, NQ 1817.25, and ES 1065.50 support to look for. If we drop there we can look for last weeks lows to test (ES 1061.75, NQ 1800 and TF 599.90). Futures did test the weekly pivots and the daily everyday excluding Friday on the ES and TF, the NQ did test Friday. First thing we need to see is the range from Friday break to point the market in a direction to find volatility. Don't get excited if there is a lot of sitting and waiting this week, we could see August sit and not really do a lot for us. There will be opportunities, they will just be hit and miss throughout the week.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Monday 10:30 FOMC Member Hoenig Speaks. Tuesday 10:00 Existing Home Sales, 10:00 Richmond Manufacturing Index. Wednesday 8:30 Core Durable Goods Orders, 8:30 Durable Goods Orders, 10:00 New Home Sales, 10:00 HPI m/m, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 Mortgage Delinquencies, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Prelim GDP, 8:30 Prelim GDP Price Index, 9:55 Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Revised UoM Inflation Expectations, 10:00 Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Monday pre market SAFM, TUES and after the bell FMCN. Tuesday pre market BKS, BIG, MDT, and after the bell PSUN, RUE, PAY. Wednesday pre market AEO, ISLE, TOL and after the bell JDSU, SMTC, TIVO. Thursday pre market DHT, FRED, PDCO and after the bell DLLR, JCG, NOVL, OVTI. Friday pre market FRO, TIF and nothing after the bell.
TF (Russell 2000 e-mini) Monday's pivot 607, weekly pivot 614.40. Support: 606.70, 605.40, 604.10, 602.20, 599.90, 596.90, 594.10. Resistance: 612.50, 616.40, 620.40, 623.30, 625.90, 627.70, 631.20, 633, 636.60, 637.90.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
19 Aug, 2009
Thursday gave up the weeks gains and on heavier volume. The Russell 2000 fell -2.71 %, SPX -1.69%, Nas Composite -1.65%, Nas 100 -1.50% on the day. The distribution day brought in profit taking and sellers, the late day sell offs we,ve saw on Tuesday and Wednesday didn,t treat the market very well with follow through today. The VIX closed at 26.44 and the TRIN at 2.75 very bearish. Gold closed up $3.60 to $1235 an ounce and oil fell 99 cents to $74.43 a barrel.
With the TRIN closing well over 2 that sets the market up for an early bounce. After the bell HPQ and Dell reported earnings, both are currently trading lower. That maybe enough to push the market to move some in the globex but not a lot. A flat or down opening would set us up for a bounce, a higher close may limit the TRIN bounce and be short lived. With it being Friday of expiration we can look for the market to be digestive and a little lackluster to hold in the range the week already has in place.
The ES has 1068.75 support and then onto 1061 and 1053 for bigger targets below us. The NQ 1811.50, 1800 and 1782.50 support below us as key levels. The ES back over 1079.75 resistance to bounce into, if we can,t clear that our bounce is going to be short lived. The NQ 1830 and then 1842.25 for resistance overhead. Selling off on this heavier volume put the double tops we were looking at last night and they met the measured move on each index, it is about where we closed actually. So having seen that the projection we can look for the Thursday lows for support, any early weakness and off to a bounce.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Friday nothing due. Monday nothing due out. Tuesday 10:00 Existing Home Sales, 10:00 Richmond Manufacturing Index.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Friday pre market ANN, SJM, KIRK and nothing after the bell.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
17 Aug, 2009
Tuesday closed to the upside with the Russell 2000 +1.82%, Nas 100 +1.30%, Nas Composite +1.26%, S&P 500 +1.21% and the Dow +1.00% on the day. Volume came in as the market moved higher with a nice trend day gradually climbing for an accumulation day. The TRIN closed at .69 and the VIX at 24.33. Gold moved up $2.00 to $1228.20 an ounce and oil rallied to close at $75.77 +.53 a barrel.
The Dow closed over the 50dma and just under the 200dma and in the lower quadrant on the 8/11 fall. The Nas Composite filled the 8/11 gap and pierced the 50dma, still closing under that resistance. Nas 100 also filled the 8/11 gap and pierced both the 50dma and 200dma's, closing under both. S&P 500 filled the 8/11 gap, still closing in the lower quarter of the 8/11 range and just a step over the 50dma. The SPX has danced over and under this 50dma since mid July. Which means one day over does mean a bull rally. The move up did have the volume to support the move, but again one accumulation day doesn't guarantee continuation.
The weak close took the wind out of the sails on the bulls despite the strong market breadth. The ES needed to hold over 1089.25 and we closed just below, so that will be pivotal into Wednesday's open. Now 1089.25-1086.25 will be what we look to hold, otherwise this rally isn't likely to hold any of the gains. The NQ has 1845-1837.25 is the key area, the NQ dropped 1845 and now has 1837.25 support to hold or the rally is likely to give up all the gains. The TF 624.30 support and 619.60 needs to hold or look for lower ground. The day left a gap open and that isn't likely to stay open if we drop the supports outlined above. Taking out Tuesday's high would result in a bigger advance on the indexes.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Wednesday 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:00 CB Leading Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, 12:30 FOMC Member Bullard Speaks. Friday nothing due.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Wednesday pre market BJ, COCO, DE, STP, TGT and after the bell AMAT, BRCD, HOTT, LTD, NTAP, NTES, PETM. Thursday pre market PLCE, DKS, DLTR, GME, HNZ, ROST, SHLD, SPLS, WSM, and DELL, GPS, HPQ, INTU, MRVL, NDSN, CRM, WTSLA. Friday pre market ANN, SJM, KIRK and nothing after the bell.
TF (Russell 2000 e-mini) Wednesday's pivot 623.90, weekly pivot 624.70. Support: 619.60, 616.30, 614.50 fills gap-613, 610.50, 608.30, 605.70, 602.40, 598.20, 597.30. Resistance: 626.40, 627.90, 628.90, 630.20, 631.20, 634, 636.60, 637.90.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
16 Aug, 2009
Monday closed the day green across the broader markets on mixed volume. The NYSE came in lighter and the Nasdaq heavier than Friday. The recovery bounce on the indexes took us back to mid channel Thursday and Friday's action. The TRIN closed at 1.57 bearish and the VIX at 26.10 back to 10.5% off the 10dma. Gold closed up $9.40 to $1226 an ounce and oil down 15 cents to $75.24 a barrel.
Into Tuesday the market can look for early data to spark the volatility and bring in some volume for us. The volume should pick up as the market finds some reason to move. Data is a good reason and as we move into mid week of expiration. The Nas Composite and Nas 100 engulfed Friday's losses and the SPX and Dow left hammers for support. That is a bullish sign for the market if we get another up day to confirm the support in place. The Nasdaq Composite has 2155.29 61.8%, 1809.41 50%, SPX 1069.11 50% and Dow 10266.14 50dma and 10167.10 50% fib support just under each index. The Dow is still the only index sitting over a key moving average 50dma.
The ES has 1079.75 resistance clears we look for 1088 to test. The 1068.75 support stays in place the ES can still move higher. The NQ 1825.50 resistance and onto 1845 will be key for the NQ to get any upside movement. Support is at 1811.5-1807, staying over that line in the sand lets the market move higher.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Tuesday 8:30 Building Permits, 8:30 PPI, 8:30 Core PPI, 8:30 Housing Starts, 9:15 Capacity Utilization Rate, 9:15 Industrial Production. Wednesday 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:00 CB Leading Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, 12:30 FOMC Member Bullard Speaks. Friday nothing due.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Tuesday pre market ANF, HD, SKS, TJX, WMT and after the bell ADI, LZB. Wednesday pre market BJ, COCO, DE, STP, TGT and after the bell AMAT, BRCD, HOTT, LTD, NTAP, NTES, PETM. Thursday pre market PLCE, DKS, DLTR, GME, HNZ, ROST, SHLD, SPLS, WSM, and DELL, GPS, HPQ, INTU, MRVL, NDSN, CRM, WTSLA. Friday pre market ANN, SJM, KIRK and nothing after the bell.
NQ (Nas 100 e-mini) Tuesday's pivot 1818, weekly pivot 1847. Support: 1816.50, 1812.75- 1811.50, 1807, 1804, 1800, 1797.50, 1791, 1786.50, 1782.50. Resistance: 1825.50, 1833.25, 1838.25, 1841, 1845, 1852.25, 1859, 1866.50, 1873
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
15 Aug, 2009
Friday closed the day with a narrow range inside day in the red across the broader markets. The Dow closed off .16%, SPX -.40%, NDX -.72%, COMPX -.76% for a modest day on the broader markets. The volume fell off with the narrow range to hold the market very quiet. The week took back the last three weeks of gains. Pretty tight range for the last months so this isn't really saying a lot. The TRIN closed 1.18 slightly bearish and the TRIN at 26.24 about 12.5% off the 10dma. Gold closed the day down 70 cents to $1216.00 an ounce and oil down 34 cents to $75.40 a barrel.
The Nasdaq Composite has 2155.29 61.8%, 1809.41 50%, SPX 1069.11 50% and Dow 10266.14 50dma and 10167.10 50% fib support just under each index. The Dow is still the only index sitting over a key moving average 50dma. The CCI closed with divergence on the daily charts for the COMPX, SPX, NDX and Dow and the ADX is also very low down at 15. That low ADX tells us an impending move is coming and with the VIX more than 10% off the 10dma. I am looking for some quick movement to come into the market. The week has a lot of data, but also options expiration. Which usually brings in volatility and plenty of movement throughout the week.
Monday we'll look for a test of lower ground and for the market to find some upside. The ES still has a gap at 1064 from 7/21 to fill. Last week left 8/11 gap, 8/10 and 8/9 gaps open overhead. That leaves the market with some work overhead to clear up, but keep in mind the that can stay open for weeks/months. Breaking Friday's range should help to bring in volume and get the market moving early on.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Monday 8:30 Empire State Manufacturing Index, 9:00 TIC Long Term Purchases, 10:00 NAHB Housing Market Index. Tuesday 8:30 Building Permits, 8:30 PPI, 8:30 Core PPI, 8:30 Housing Starts, 9:15 Capacity Utilization Rate, 9:15 Industrial Production. Wednesday 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:00 CB Leading Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, 12:30 FOMC Member Bullard Speaks. Friday nothing due.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Monday pre market LOW, SYY and after the bell A, URBN. Tuesday pre market ANF, HD, SKS, TJX, WMT and after the bell ADI, LZB. Wednesday pre market BJ, COCO, DE, STP, TGT and after the bell AMAT, BRCD, HOTT, LTD, NTAP, NTES, PETM. Thursday pre market PLCE, DKS, DLTR, GME, HNZ, ROST, SHLD, SPLS, WSM, and DELL, GPS, HPQ, INTU, MRVL, NDSN, CRM, WTSLA. Friday pre market ANN, SJM, KIRK and nothing after the bell.
NQ (Nas 100 e-mini) Monday's pivot 1821, weekly pivot 1847. Support: 1812.75- 1811.50, 1806.25, 1797.50, 1786.50, 1782.50. Resistance: 1824, 1829.50, 1833.50, 1838.25, 1849, 1854, 1860.50-1862
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
12 Aug, 2009
Thursday closed the day red across the broader markets, the Nas Composite -.83%, NDX -.71, SPX -.53, RUT -.54 and the Dow -.56 closing on the days highs. Big gap down pressured the market early and a slow rise stepped in for most of the day to finish on the highs. Volume did not come in, which tells us the this drop was not viewed as a buying opportunity and shorts did not rush in to cover either. The TRIN closed bearish at 1.13 and the VIX at 25.73 12% off the 10dma. Gold rallied to close at $1216.50 +17.30 and oil fell $2.28 to $75.74 a barrel, levels we haven't seen for a month.
The SPX, NDX, COMPX all are back under the 200dma and 50dma, the Dow dropped the 200dma and now sits on the 50dma. The COMPX support 2155.29 61.8%, NDX 1809.41 50% and 1783.60 61.8%, SPX 1082.84 38.2% and 1069.11 50%, Dow 10297.60 38.2%-10265.18 50dma supports need to be watched. 61.8% is very critical to hold or this drop has a lot more fuel than the bulls want to see as we head into the second half of August, which is typically lighter volume. Lighter volume allows for fewer traders to push the market in the least resistant direction.
Thursday brought a bounce to work off Wednesday's drop. Now the market sits on support and we'll have to hold over the supports outlined above to see the buyers step in. Early upside could still come in for the market to test a bigger retracement. However, the bears still held on today and kept breadth negative throughout the day. The TF over 626.70, NQ 1819 and ES 1092 should be watched for. We clear those levels heavier buying could come in, but until then we look to sell into any strength.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Friday 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 Core Retail Sales, 8:30 Retail Sales, 8:30 CPI, 9:55 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, 10:00 Business Inventories, 11:30 FOMC Member Hoenig Speaks. Monday 8:30 Empire State Manufacturing Index, 9:00 TIC Long Term Purchases, 10:00 NAHB Housing Market Index. Tuesday 8:30 Building Permits, 8:30 PPI, 8:30 Core PPI, 8:30 Housing Starts, 9:15 Capacity Utilization Rate, 9:15 Industrial Production. Wednesday 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:00 CB Leading Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, 12:30 FOMC Member Bullard Speaks. Friday nothing due.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Friday pre market ADES, CTFO, JCP, and nothing after the bell. Monday pre market LOW, SYY and after the bell A, URBN.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Friday's pivot 1078.25, weekly pivot 1116.50. Intraday support: 1074.50, 1068.75, 1064.50, 1061, 1053 Resistance: 1083.50, 1087.25, 1092, 1097.50, 1101.50, 1105.25
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
11 Aug, 2009
Wednesday closed the day very red across the broader markets. The Nas Composite -3.00%, NDX -2.83%, SPX -2.81 %, Dow -2.49% and RUT �4.01, with a TRIN that closed at 5.24 the second highest TRIN in 2010. June 29th closed at 6.06, leaving 5.24 the 2nd highest and 7/16 at 4.96 to round out the top three TRINS on the year. The VIX is back over the 200dma and closed at 25.39. Gold closed up $1.70 to $1199.70 and oil down $2.23 to 78.02 a barrel.
June 29th the 6.06 TRIN did not bring much of a bounce on the 30th and even into July 1st, which has marked the intermediate low we've been lifting off. However, the opening on the 30th opened relatively flat so reflex snapback came in. The extreme close today with a gap down would likely be exhaustive and let the market bounce to work off the oversold conditions. That is the first scenario we look for. Flat opening some reflex lower is likely and a gap up would be the last thing we want to see and leave us flat footed most likely. I would look to sell into strength though, just very carefully.
With Cisco reporting earnings after the bell the market pushed lower in the globex session. CSCO closed at 23.68 and traded down to 21.91 off beating by 1 cent and pretty much in line revenues. Certainly did not blow the lid off anything and the conference call was pretty mixed outlook with Chambers thinking things are still slowing and presenting challenges. He doesn't usually promise a lot and likes to just deliver, so nothing was out of the ordinary to me.
Futures did not test the daily pivots and closed just under S3 on the NQ and TF, the ES was right on S3. The bounces were nonexistent and relentless selling throughout the day. The ES has 1081 support with 1068.75 as the next key area. The NQ 1834.25 support and 1811.50 support to follow. ES back over 1091 look for 1100.50 to test. The NQ back over 1856 and look for 1868.50 to test.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Import Prices, 10:00 FOMC Member Duke Speaks, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 Core Retail Sales, 8:30 Retail Sales, 8:30 CPI, 9:55 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, 10:00 Business Inventories, 11:30 FOMC Member Hoenig Speaks.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Thursday pre market EAT, KSS, PRGO, WEN and after the bell ADSK, BBI, JWN, NVDA, TRMA. Friday pre market ADES, CTFO, JCP, and nothing after the bell.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
10 Aug, 2009
Tuesday closed the day on the downside, but well off the days lows. Volume increased throughout the day almost doubling Monday's on futures and about 30% higher on the NYSE and Nasdaq. The Fed's announcement to use mortgage-bond proceeds to buy Treasuries, which theoretically will boost the economy. The TRIN closed at 1.38 and the VIX at 22.37 a barrel. Gold closed down $2.60 to $1200 and oil fell $1.23 to $80.25 a barrel.
Futures still did not take out last weeks highs 1127.75 highs need to open for a test into 1131.25, a break there we look for 1166.75 to test. Holding over 1110.50 will hold the bulls territory and help us push higher. A move under 1100.50 will leave us to look at 1093.50 sooner rather than later. The NQ over 1919.25 we look for an advance onto 1979.50. NQ holding 1884.75 lends a hand to the bulls to run to those higher levels, a drop of 1884.75 we look for 1864.50. The weekly pivots on the ES, NQ and TF did test today. Only the ES tested the daily pivot, leaving the NQ and TF no daily pivot on Monday and Tuesday.
Wednesday starts the day with economic data, which should provide us with some volatility. At 2:00 we will get a look at the Federal Budget and that will also be a market mover. The end of day rally recovered a lot of losses, however I am still skeptical and Tuesday's distribution day can lead the market lower. A weaker opening will not be surprising if the data comes in weak. A pick up of volume on the downside with the breadth Tuesday brought could really open the bears den. Until we take out last weeks high, I am still leaning lower.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Wednesday 8:30 Trade Balance, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 2:00 Federal Budget Balance. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Import Prices, 10:00 FOMC Member Duke Speaks, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 Core Retail Sales, 8:30 Retail Sales, 8:30 CPI, 9:55 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, 10:00 Business Inventories, 11:30 FOMC Member Hoenig Speaks.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Wednesday pre market CSC, M, and after the bell CSCO, PAAS, SLW, TK. Thursday pre market EAT, KSS, PRGO, WEN and after the bell ADSK, BBI, JWN, NVDA, TRMA. Friday pre market ADES, CTFO, JCP, and nothing after the bell.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
9 Aug, 2009
Monday closed the day green across the broader markets and on light volume. This is our August melt up on no volume action continuing. Which is very normal to see, the FOMC meeting Tuesday could help with that though and bring in a little more conviction to get us through August. The TRIN closed at 1.01 just slightly bearish and the VIX at 22.14, which left the day in a tiny range. Gold closed down $2.30 to $1203 and oil up 78 cents to $81.48 a barrel.
Into Tuesday the market is once again in a tiny range, but we did close the day on the highs and just over last weeks highs for the NDX and COMPX. The SPX and Dow closed just into last weeks highs. There isn't a lot of bet making ahead of the Fed's meeting, which is causing trade to stay very tentative. Plus it is August, we never expect a lot of anything in August. The good news is we are managing through August now and this too shall pass. The Fed is expected to leave its federal funds rate near zero, however another round of quantitative easing with the Fed buying Treasury Notes and securities for some additional liquidity into the system. That would likely excite the markets and let the bulls run.
Futures did not test the pivots today, that was hard to not scratch my head about. But that leaves us to look for the daily and weekly into Tuesday still to get a look. Last weeks 1127.75 highs need to open for a test into 1131.75, a break there we look for 1166.75 to test. Holding over 1098.25 will hold the bulls territory, 1093.25 drops the bears will be likely to come in and push us back to 1084.50 swing low and onto 1080.75. The NQ over 1919.25 we look for an advance onto 1979.50. NQ holding 1880 lends a hand to the bulls to run to those higher levels, a drop of 1880 we look for 1854.75.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Tuesday 8:30 Prelim Nonfarm Productivity, 8:30 Prelim Unit Labor Costs, 10:00 IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, 10:00 Wholesale Inventories, 2:15 FOMC Statement, 2:15 Federal Funds Rate. Wednesday 8:30 Trade Balance, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 2:00 Federal Budget Balance. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Import Prices, 10:00 FOMC Member Duke Speaks, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 Core Retail Sales, 8:30 Retail Sales, 8:30 CPI, 9:55 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, 10:00 Business Inventories, 11:30 FOMC Member Hoenig Speaks.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Tuesday pre market SMG, and after the bell CREE, URS, DIS. Wednesday pre market CSC, M, and after the bell CSCO, PAAS, SLW, TK. Thursday pre market EAT, KSS, PRGO, WEN and after the bell ADSK, BBI, JWN, NVDA, TRMA. Friday pre market ADES, CTFO, JCP, and nothing after the bell.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Tuesday's pivot 1123.50, weekly pivot 1116.50. Intraday support: 1117.75, 1112.50, 1108.50, 1103.75, 1100.50, 1098.25 gap fill. Resistance: 1126.75-1127.75, 1132, 1135.50, 1137.75-1138.25, 1144.50, 1149.25
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
2 Aug, 2009
Monday brought a nice rally day to the broader markets. In the last 10 weeks the market has had 5 consecutive down Monday's and now today markets the 5th consecutive up Monday. The volume was very light on this lift, which concerns me as usual. The VIX closed at 22.01 and the TRIN very bullish at .39. Gold closed down $1.80 to $1182.10 and oil up $2.39 to $81.34, back to levels we saw in May.
The Nasdaq Composite closed just under the July 27th swing high, the Nas 100 right into that swing high. The S&P 500 and the Dow closed just over the July 27th swing high and the Dow even closed over the June highs. The lift didn't quite put the daily charts into overbought territory. However, the intraday 65 minute chart did reach overbought territory and that leaves the market looking for a pullback. Another gap up would really exhaust the move, a gap down would work that off and let the bulls refuel.
The futures did not test daily or weekly pivots today. The ES is just under 6/21 highs 1129.5 and 1131.75 61.8% fib resistance. With the daily chart still grinding out an inverted head and shoulders that 1131.75 is a good spot to look at for the neckline. The measured move would be about 129 points over 1131.75 to 1260.75 new highs on the year. The NQ has 1900.75 7/27 highs, 1919.25 61.8% which is also a good spot for the neckline on the inverted head and shoulders. The NQ 221.25 measured move over 1919.25 to 2140.50 for the move. Those inverted head and shoulders have been in the making since early June so that would likely take months to develop. That neckline must first open that door for the patterns to trigger.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Tuesday 8:30 Core PCE Price Index, 8:30 Personal Spending, 8:30 Personal Income, 10:00 Pending Home Sales, 10:00 Factory Orders, Vehicle sales all day. Wednesday 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts, 8:15 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, 10:00 ISM Non Manufacturing PMI, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Non Farm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings, 3:00 Consumer Credit.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Tuesday pre market ADM, COH, DHI, DUK, MRO, MMC, MA, MGM, NYX, OSG, PFE, PG, THC, YRCW and after the bell APC, BBOX, CRA, ERTS, JCOM, NATL, PCLN, TRLG, UTI, WFMI, WMS, XL. Wednesday pre market AGU, CAM, LSE, DVN, GRMN, ICE, PHM, Q, and after the bell NDN, ALL, ATML, CECO, IPI, MUR, ONNN, PACR, PRU, SINA, RIG. Thursday pre market ATPG, BZH, BCRX, CAH, CBOE, CI, FTO, LIZ, ZEUS, OMG, OCR, and after the bell NILE, CF, CROX, EOG, HANS, MCHP. Friday pre market AES, AIG, DYN, and nothing after the bell.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Tuesday's pivot 1118.75., weekly pivot 1100.75. Intraday support: 1119, 1115.50, 1109, 1104.25, 1099.50-1098.25 gap fill. Resistance: 1124.50-1126.75, 1135.50, 1138.50, 1149.25
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
1 Aug, 2009
Friday left the market with a modest win on the NDX, COMPX, and SPX and a tiny loss on the Dow. All the broader indexes closed just off the highs after a very weak start in the deep red. Volume increased to close the month on the NYSE, Nasdaq and futures. The TRIN closed at 1.19 and the VIX at 23.50 on the days low, just on the 200dma. Gold closed up $13.20 to $1182.20 and oil up 69 cents to $79.05 a barrel.
The Nas Composite and S&P 500 sit just under the 200dma, NDX and Dow are still holding over that key moving average. The Nas composite, Nas 100 and S&P 500 closed just points below June's close and the Dow closed just points over June's close. July left the indexes with a spinning top and a much smaller range than June delivered. With the week ahead filled with economic data that will be the fuel for the market. We still have a lot of earnings flowing out as well.
Futures did test the weekly pivots last week but in the second half of the week. Daily tested everyday excluding Monday, so it was a good week for that. The ES over 1110.75 we look for 1118.75 last week high and under 1088.50 we look for 1077.75. The NQ over 1884.50 we look for 1900.75 and under 1847.5 we look for 1831.50 to test.
Historically the first day of August is red, the first 9 days of August are also historically weak. However, I think we see a strong start on the day because the market seemed to be finding buyers in any dip not sellers on each pop last week. The weak opening Friday's getting bought leaves me to look to see if the market can hold and climb from here. So we'll watch the levels above and let the market set the tone for us.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Monday 10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI, 10:00 Construction Spending, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing Prices, 10:15 Fed Chairman Bernanke to speak, 4:00 Geithner Speaks. Tuesday 8:30 Core PCE Price Index, 8:30 Personal Spending, 8:30 Personal Income, 10:00 Pending Home Sales, 10:00 Factory Orders, Vehicle sales all day. Wednesday 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts, 8:15 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, 10:00 ISM Non Manufacturing PMI, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Non Farm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings, 3:00 Consumer Credit.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Monday pre market AGN, CLX, NS, and after the bell MSTR, PFG, VRSN, VMC. Tuesday pre market ADM, COH, DHI, DUK, MRO, MMC, MA, MGM, NYX, OSG, PFE, PG, THC, YRCW and after the bell APC, BBOX, CRA, ERTS, JCOM, NATL, PCLN, TRLG, UTI, WFMI, WMS, XL. Wednesday pre market AGU, CAM, LSE, DVN, GRMN, ICE, PHM, Q, and after the bell NDN, ALL, ATML, CECO, IPI, MUR, ONNN, PACR, PRU, SINA, RIG. Thursday pre market ATPG, BZH, BCRX, CAH, CBOE, CI, FTO, LIZ, ZEUS, OMG, OCR, and after the bell NILE, CF, CROX, EOG, HANS, MCHP. Friday pre market AES, AIG, DYN, and nothing after the bell.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
28 July, 2009
Wednesday closed the day lower across the broader markets. Volume did come in lighter on the NYSE, Nasdaq and futures. The VIX closed at 24.25 and the TRIN at 1.30 bearish on the day. The U/D closed on the low of day while the A/D was off the lows, but still quite negative. Gold closed up $2.10 to $1160.10 and oil down 51 cents to $76.99.
Tuesday left the day with a hanging man, the market needed a lower close on Wednesday to confirm that. We did get that lower close to confirm a reversal bar, however one more element of confirmation is volume. Volume came in lighter which leaves us with a weaker reversal signal and not a true confirmation. The SPX dropped the 200dma with this fall and the COMPX is now sitting on top of it. This leaves us to wonder if we had a 2 day wonder over the key 200dma to get the bulls in and now leave them hanging here. Into Thursday volume needs to pick up to convince us of direction. A heavier volume drop would certainly be full of conviction to help see a reversal off Tuesday's high.
Into Thursday our day will start with economic data to create some volatility. Bad news is not what the bulls want to see right now. Earnings have been good overall and holding their own, but the market still has some nervousness with mixed economic data. Futures did test the daily pivots on Wednesday and now have support below us. The ES has 1092.75, NQ 1854.25 and the TF 644.10, dropping these levels would leave the market looking for significantly lower ground. A bounce back over 661.90 TF, NQ 1885.75 and the ES 1110.75 could let the bulls have a rally party. The volume will be key, heavier moving up or down will show the conviction and give the market the bias for continuation.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Advance GDP, 8:30 Advance GDP Index, 8:30 Employment Cost Index, 9:45 Chicago PMI, 9:55 Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Revised UoM Inflation Expectations.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Thursday pre market ADP, BG, CELG, CME, CL, SRAY, DPS, XOM, K, MOT, PTEN, POT, PDE, SNE, LUV, TSM, TNC, TYC, WM, WYNN, and after the bell AMGN, AMCC, CSTR, DSCM, FSLR, GPRO, KLAC, MXIM, MFE, MET, QSFT, RNWK, SUN, VSEA. Friday pre market CVX, CVH, FO, ITT, MRK, GAS, UPL, WY and nothing after the bell
NQ (Nas 100 e-mini) Thursday's pivot 1875.75, weekly pivot 1844.50. Support: 1865.25, 1860.50, 1856.-1854.25, 1846.75 Resistance: 1877.75, 1881.75, 1885.75, 1891.50, 1888.25
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
26 July, 2009
Monday brought the market dismal volume but a lift to continue Friday's move. The market closed on the highs after a slow climb up on very light volume. The range was tight and restricted throughout the day, no robust moves, just slow and narrow. The TRIN closed very bullish at .55 and the VIX at 22.73 just under the 200dma (23.38). The lowest close since May 3rd. Gold closed down $4.00 to $1183.80 and oil closed unchanged at $78.98 a barrel.
The ES cleared 1102.50 and moved up to 1111.75 closing on the highs of the day. Now we look to move onto 1127.50 the 6/21 day session high and 1129.50 globex high. Then we are a hop skip and a jump away from 1131.75 61.8% fib resistance. The NQ broke 1887.25 and move onto 1888.25 on the day. Now we look for a move to 1938.75 day session high on 6/21 and globex at 1941. No test of the daily or weekly pivots for any of the indexes. That is unusual and we look for those to test into Tuesday, however the weekly are going to be more of an effort to get that low.
The market does need a pullback off this slow lift and a gap up is likely to give us that entry on a pullback on the markets. A pullback would give us the fuel to continue onto the levels listed above. Without a pullback the volume will continue to disappear and leave us in a crawl with no real participation. This is end of month and that leaves us to look for volume to pick up into the weeks end. The market does have reason to pullback here with the divergence and overbought intraday conditions we closed with.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Tuesday 9:00 S&P/CS Composite, 10:00 Consumer Confidence, 10:00 Richmond Manufacturing Index. Wednesday 8:30 Core Durable Goods Orders, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 2:00 Beige Book. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Advance GDP, 8:30 Advance GDP Index, 8:30 Employment Cost Index, 9:45 Chicago PMI, 9:55 Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Revised UoM Inflation Expectations.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Tuesday pre market AKS, BP, CIT, DPZ, DD, ECL, LLL, LVLT, LXK, LMT, NDAQ, OXY, OXPS, SAP, TEVA, X, UA, VLO, and after the bell AET, BRCM, CEPH, DWA, IGT, MEE, NSC, PNRA, ULTI. Wednesday pre market BA, COP, GLW, GD, IACI, IP, LAZ, MHO, MSO, NEM, OSTK, PCAR, PFCB, SO, S, SU, WLP, and after the bell AEM, BMC, DRYS, ESRX, FARO, GG, HURN, LRCX, LOGI, LSI, MYL, OII, PMTC, PDLI, QLTY, RYL, TER, VAR, V, WLT, WCAA. Thursday pre market ADP, BG, CELG, CME, CL, SRAY, DPS, XOM, K, MOT, PTEN, POT, PDE, SNE, LUV, TSM, TNC, TYC, WM, WYNN, and after the bell AMGN, AMCC, CSTR, DSCM, FSLR, GPRO, KLAC, MXIM, MFE, MET, QSFT, RNWK, SUN, VSEA. Friday pre market CVX, CVH, FO, ITT, MRK, GAS, UPL, WY and nothing after the bell
NQ (Nas 100 e-mini) Tuesday's pivot 1880.50, weekly pivot 1844.50. Support: 1880.50, 1875.75, 1871.50, 1866.25, 1861, 1857, 1853.50, 1847.75. Resistance: 1888.25-1889.75, 1900.50, 1904.75, 1911.25, 1916.75, 1937.50-1938.75
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
25 July, 2009
Friday closed the day on the green side of the fence to make for 4 of the last 5 days booking gains on the broader markets. Volume was lower on the NYSE and futures and the Nasdaq had higher participation than Thursday. The TRIN closed at 1.04 slightly bearish on the day and the VIX at 23.47 on the lows of the day. Gold fell $6.50 to $1189.10 and oil down 32 cents to $78.98 a barrel.
The week put in the lows early on and finished on the highs, leaving only Wednesday as a down day for the market. Friday's lift took the market just over the prior weeks highs and all but the SPX are just over the 200dma. Stochastics, CCI, RSI and MACD are still moving higher. The weekly charts the markets held over 38.2% on the drop from the end of June. Last weeks move up after the prior weeks digestive range let the market stay in the range we've seen since mid May. That is still digestive but now the market needs to decide on direction to break the channel we've sat on. If the Dow stays over 10269.80 we can look for 10789.5, SPX stays over 1090.71 we can look for 1175.11, NDX stays over 1837.32 we can look for 1982.51, COMPX stays over 2242.26 we can look for 2433.81 longer term move to come in.
ES over 1102.50 we can look for 1127.50, NQ over 1887.25 we can look for 1938.75, TF over 656.50 we can look for 676.00 to test. If the ES drops 1082.25 we can look for 1071 and onto 1064 gap fill, TF drops 631.10 we are likely to see 619.20 and onto 610.70 gap fill. The NQ 1838 and onto 1816.75/1815.50 gap fill.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Monday 10:00 New Home Sales. Tuesday 9:00 S&P/CS Composite, 10:00 Consumer Confidence, 10:00 Richmond Manufacturing Index. Wednesday 8:30 Core Durable Goods Orders, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 2:00 Beige Book. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Advance GDP, 8:30 Advance GDP Index, 8:30 Employment Cost Index, 9:45 Chicago PMI, 9:55 Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Revised UoM Inflation Expectations.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Monday pre market RSH, SOHU and after the bell ADVS, CF, LM, MAS, UHS, VLTR, ZRAN. Tuesday pre market AKS, BP, CIT, DPZ, DD, ECL, LLL, LVLT, LXK, LMT, NDAQ, OXY, OXPS, SAP, TEVA, X, UA, VLO, and after the bell AET, BRCM, CEPH, DWA, IGT, MEE, NSC, PNRA, ULTI.
COMPX (Nasdaq Composite) closed +23.58 at 2269.47. Support: 2227.63, 2201.79, 2183.39. Resistance: 2298.21, 2341.11, 2354.16
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
20 July, 2009
Tuesday closed the day on the highs after a very weak opening. Volume moved with the advance and put in a heavier day over Monday's participation. The VIX closed on the days low at 23.93 (also the 200dma) and the TRIN closed at .80 bullish on the day. The A/D and U/D lines closed on the highs. Gold closed up $10.10 to $1992 and oil also rallied to close up 62 cents to $77.52 a barrel.
After the bell AAPL traded higher off earnings, VMW, SLM and BSX joined Apple in the earnings rally. Stocks trading lower off earnings were YHO, JNPR, STX, GILD. Futures had an initial reaction to Apple, but they've settled in now. Apple accounts for 20% of the weight on the Nasdaq 100 so it really does matter. As Apple goes so does the market is a little overstated, but certainly worth paying attention too. The markets lift recovered most of Friday's drop leaving us right back in last weeks range.
Into Wednesday the Nas 100 and Nas Composite is getting very close to the 200dma and 50dma. The SPX is nearing the 50dma, the Dow did test the 50dma today. The market has to continue into Wednesday, a sell off on good news out of AAPL would be a little painful to the market. The Fed Chairman testifies in the afternoon and that is going to be closely monitored and probably stall the market in the morning waiting on him to testify. Earnings are likely to provide an opening moving then we could see the market park and wait on Bernanke.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Wednesday 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 2:00 Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies,. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 9:30 Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies, 10:00 Existing Home Sales, , 10:00 CB Leading Index, 10:00 HPI m/m, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday nothing due out.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Wednesday pre market MO, BLK, KO, ETN, EMC, GENZ, MS, OSTK, TXT, UTX, LCC, USB, WFC and after the bell ADS, AMLN, BIDU, CA, EBAY, FFIV, ISIL, ISRG, NFLX, NVEC, QCOM, SBUX, XLNX. Thursday pre market MMM, ALK, T, CAT, CAL, CY, LLY, FITB, JBLU, KEY, NOK, NUE, OXPS, PENN, STJ, HOT, STI, TRAD, TRV, UNP, UPS, WSO, XRX, ZMH and after the bell AMZN, AXP, COF, CAKE, CMG, CYMI, DECK, ETFC, FLEX, HGSI, KLAC, LSCC, MSCC, MSFT, MOS, NCR, OSIP, PMCS, QLGC, RMBS, SNDK, STM, VASC. Friday pre market F, GAP, HON, MCD, R, SLB, TROW, TASR, VZ, and after the bell nothing due out.
COMPX (Nasdaq Composite) closed +24.26 at 2222.49. Support: 2184.31, 2160.83, 2137.35, 2103.92. Resistance: 2240.13dma-2256.95, 2281.15, 2298.21, 2341.11
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
13 July, 2009
Tuesday brought a strong day for the broader markets on heavier volume. A kick off of earnings season brought in participation for the accumulation day. The TRIN closed at .43 very bullish and the VIX tested and held the 200dma (23.44) with a close at 24.56. Gold closed the day up $15.10 to $1213.80 and oil up $2.20 to $77.15 a barrel. Broader participation left the market closing just off the highs.
The Nas Composite, Nas 100 and S&P 500 closed right into 38.2% resistance we've watched all week for a test of resistance. The 50dma and 200dma are all right in this same zone on those indexes. The Dow cleared 38.2% and the 50dma, leaving the 200dma just at the days close. Internets, banks and brokers were the top three sectors and the bottom were telecom, hardware and healthcare. Semi's fell in the middle of the pack on the day. Financials were barely outpaced by internets, which I believe helped hold the Nasdaq today and that late day pop helped balance the advance. The Nas 100 (NDX) was the weakest of the indexes with the Russell 2000 as the strongest. Strength led by financials and small caps is rarely sustainable, so we'll see if the strength holds into Wednesday.
After the bell Intel (INTC) reported earnings and rallied the stock as well as tech. Futures are up nicely in the afterhours thanks to the INTC's report. YUM Brands (YUM) reported and fell in the afterhours session. Now seeing the market hold the gains will be key into Wednesday. With the NDX, COMPX and SPX right into resistance the market may need to come off a strong opening to find some buyers on a retracement to sustain the rally. Gapping day after day starts to wear its welcome out after a few days. Leaving the market overbought and ready for retracement. Today closed the 6th consecutive day to the upside, that also wears on the market and hurts participation, everyone is afraid of buying a top as the market hits key resistance.
Futures did not test the daily pivots today. The weekly are still untested and today's advance left more room to fall for a test there. The range expansion today left for better action than we saw on Monday, but the ES and NQ were not on the same page for much of the day. That was the tech and financials split on the day keeping us on two pages. Now into Wednesday we will see a very awake tech market off the INTC report and financials will start to look to Thursday to hear from JPM. Which leaves us to look for rotation and some pullback early in the day off a big opening.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Wednesday 8:30 Core Retail Sales, 8:30 Retail Sales, 8:30 Import Prices, 10:00 Business Inventories, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 2:00 FOMC Meeting Minutes. Thursday 8:30 PPI, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Core PPI, 8:30 Empire State Manufacturing Index, 9:15 Industrial Production m/m, 10:00 Fed Chairman Nomination vote, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, Tentative Treasury Currency Report. Friday 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 CPI, 9:00 TIC Long Term Purchase, 9:55 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Wednesday pre market ASML, TXI and after the bell LSTR, MAR. Thursday pre market SCHW, FCS, JPM, MTG, NVS, PPG and after the bell AMD, GOOG, JBHT, PLCM, NCTY. Friday pre market BAC, C, GE, MAT, and nothing after the bell.
SPX (S&P 500) closed +16.59 at 1095.34. Support: 1083.71, 1065.44, 1044.41, 1029.45. Resistance: 1111.91 200dma-1115.36, 1131.23, 1140.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
11 July, 2009
Friday closed the day on the weeks highs with an inside bar on the week. The week did close higher and took back most of the prior weeks losses. Volume closed lighter on Friday leaving the week with two accumulation days and two light volume lifting days. The TRIN closed bullish at .75 and the VIX at 24.98 just over 24.44 200dma. Gold closed up $13.90 to $1210 and oil closed up 65 cents to $76.09 a barrel.
Weekly charts has the RSI turned up, CCI sitting back over -100 line but still negative, Stochastics flattening out and the MACD also flattening both are still pointed down. The lower Bollinger pierced and held for support on the week. On the daily charts on the broader markets CCI just closed over the 0 line, RSI is headed up, stochastics pointed up nicely and the MACD is crossed up. The Dow has 10242.20, SPX 1090.71, NDX 1837.32, and the COMPX 2242.26 for 38.2% resistance overhead. The advance off the July 1st lows is a nice move, but 38.2% resistance overhead is still going to challenge the bulls. With the volume dropping off Thursday and Friday we'll need to see that return to break the resistance with conviction. Otherwise this is nothing other than a bounce for the market off the July 1st lows.
Futures did test the weekly pivot last week and the daily for the ES traded 2 of the 4 days, the NQ and TF were 3 of the 4. The ES 1081 resistance is key to move higher and through that level onto 1101.5. The NQ has 1836 gap 6/28 and onto 1846.75 to watch for on any strength next week. Key support is 1062 for the ES and 1790 on the NQ. That leaves futures with a lot of room on both sides to move. Friday's range was narrow and the action was really to hold the weeks gains. Most of the day was in a tiny range that finally broke late day to broaden the range.
Monday could start slow unless news picks up. Economic data picks up after Monday's dead day and we kick off earnings season with AA on Monday afternoon. The market will start focusing on earnings to look for guidance into the next quarter. Which will give us some nice volatility. We'll also keep an eye on the 200dma for the VIX to offer support.
INDU (Dow) closed +59.04 at 10198.03. Support: 10137.20, 10097.30, 10068.90, 9977.36, 9928.26. Resistance: 10226, 10242.20 38.2%, 10311.80, 10365.23 200dma, 10436.20
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Monday nothing due out. Tuesday 8:30 Trade Balance, 10:00 IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, 2:00 Federal Budget Balance. Wednesday 8:30 Core Retail Sales, 8:30 Retail Sales, 8:30 Import Prices, 10:00 Business Inventories, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 2:00 FOMC Meeting Minutes. Thursday 8:30 PPI, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Core PPI, 8:30 Empire State Manufacturing Index, 9:15 Industrial Production m/m, 10:00 Fed Chairman Nomination vote, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, Tentative Treasury Currency Report. Friday 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 CPI, 9:00 TIC Long Term Purchase, 9:55 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Monday pre market APP, SHAW and after the close AA, NVLS. Tuesday pre market FAST, INFY and after the bell ADTN, INTC, YUM. Wednesday pre market ASML, TXI and after the bell LSTR, MAR. Thursday pre market SCHW, FCS, JPM, MTG, NVS, PPG and after the bell AMD, GOOG, JBHT, PLCM, NCTY. Friday pre market BAC, C, GE, MAT, and nothing after the bell.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
7 July, 2009
Wednesday brought another lift to the broader markets for a nice rally day. The bulls came out and stayed around to not give up ground today. The volume left another accumulation day on the NYSE and Nasdaq, futures the ES came in higher than Tuesday but the NQ and TF were slightly lighter. The TRIN closed very bullish at .34 and the VIX fell to 26.84. Gold lifted $2.90 to $1198 and oil was also up $2.09 to $74.07 a barrel.
The continuation of Tuesday's advance showed the bulls can come out and play. Wednesday was a much bigger day of participation and held the gains. Tuesday managed to eke out a gain but not as strong, seeing volume increase is also a sign of buyers and some short covering. Banks led the key sectors with the SOX as a close second in the advance. Showing we had tech and financial support on the advance. Intraday the lift did leave the market overbought on a shorter time frame (60, 13 and 5 minute). The daily is still fine, but an early pullback is likely to happen to let the market catch its breath and digest Wednesday's big move up.
Into Thursday the market will see economic data in the pre market. The week is light on data and a short one, so Thursday's will be the highlight of the week in that department. The ES cleared 1052.5 38.2% fib resistance, the NQ is not over 1790, which is what we need to see now. It took the Nasdaq awhile to get in gear and clear Tuesday's highs, but once it did we saw the Nasdaq pick up steam and increase the markets momentum. If the NQ gets over 1790 we look for 1818.50 and onto fill the gap at 1836 from 6/28. The ES stays over 1052.50 and onto 1066.75 and the gap at 1071. If the NQ cannot clear 1790 pulling back to 1754.5 and the ES to 1039.25.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, 11:00 Crude Oil Inventories, 3:00 Consumer Credit. Friday 10:00 Wholesale Inventories.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Thursday pre market COMS, HELE, ISCA and after the bell LWSN, NUHC. Friday pre market PSMT and nothing after the bell.
COMPX (Nasdaq Composite) closed +65.59 at 2159.47. Support: 2121.59, 2081.19, 2063.51-2061.14. Resistance: 2167.95, 2201.01, 2220.65 fills gap, 2234.07
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
5 July, 2009
Friday left the day modestly red across the broader markets. Volume fell off a cliff after the first hour and came in significantly lighter due to the oncoming three day weekend. The TRIN closed bearish at 1.78 and the VIX is sitting just over the 10dma with the 30.12 close. Oil ended the week at $72.14 off 8.5% on the week and gold lost 3.6% on the week closing at $1211.50 an ounce.
Friday had a narrow range inside day on the Nasdaq Composite, Nas 100 and S&P 500, the Dow traded to new lows on the week and bounced back to close within Thursday's range. It was the typical action heading into a long weekend for the broader markets. Tuesday is likely to have a slow start and then find some momentum into the shortened week. With the daily charts at single digits on the stochastics, RSI at 30 and the inside day from Friday the market is poised for a move. Last weeks major losses left the market sitting very negative and just over key supports. The SPX and Dow have the 50dma about to cross through the 200dma. The NDX and COMPX still have room before the lines start to converge.
The key support COMPX 2050.23, NDX 1667.82, SPX 1006.99, and the Dow 9396.61 is 38.2% support off the March 2009 lows to the April highs. Those levels let us slip the next leg down will be significantly lower. On the weekly charts the indexes sit on the lower BB, RSI is 38-39, CCI -118-125 and stochastics at 23-26 still leaving some room to fall into 38.2% supports. With the daily still oversold and the weekly getting close the market can look for some upside to give us some relief.
Futures did not test the weekly pivots last week and now the markets are likely to sit well under them on the opening Tuesday. The market has been very consistent with going to the weekly pivot for 4 weeks and missing that 5th week. Now with this week missing that was one on and one off. We'll see if we return to the 4 of 5 rotation that we've seen all year. The ES back over 1025, NQ 1740.25 and TF 603.20 would lead us to look for the weekly pivots ES 1033.50, NQ 1756.75 and TF 610.30.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Tuesday 10:00 ISM Non Manufacturing PMI. Wednesday nothing due out. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, 11:00 Crude Oil Inventories, 3:00 Consumer Credit. Friday 10:00 Wholesale Inventories.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Tuesday nothing due out. Wednesday pre market FDO and after the bell WDFC. Thursday pre market COMS, HELE, ISCA and after the bell LWSN, NUHC. Friday pre market PSMT and nothing after the bell.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
1 July, 2009
Thursday closed the day red across the broader markets on higher volume. Tuesday was very high volume and we dipped a little below that on Wednesday, Thursday came in the heaviest of the week (so far). The VIX closed with a big shooting star on the day at 32.86. The TRIN closed neutral at .93, with the late day bounce the TRIN came off significantly higher bearish levels. Gold closed down $38.10 to $1207.80 an ounce and oil closed down $2.68 to $72.95 a barrel.
Thursday's losses were trimmed with the late day lift. The market struggled with Wednesday's closing range all day and left the day to close modestly red. The bulls did come in and buying was very present in the participation off the lows. Now with Job's data Friday morning in the pre market we'll have to buckle our seatbelts. Economic data keeps dealing blows to the market with disappointments rolling out. The day left possible reversal candles and even with the late day big lift, the market is still oversold. Looking for early retracement is what I would be looking for if the Job's numbers were not due out. If they come close to consensus the market is likely to take that as a good thing and still see the upside. A big disappointment will take the air of the market.
With all the talk about the "Death Cross", I'm less bearish. Too many on that bus for me before we see some retracement. A death cross historically is unusual and happens maybe once a year for a market. That isn't always bearish, often it is a reflex lower and a snap back to mark a bottom. That happens as frequently as continuing lower. The 50dma crossing the 200dma is not necessarily death, despite the name. So keep a watch for that and we are another day or two down from that happening on the broader markets. The Dow is about 60 points away, SPX only 3 points, the NDX 56 points and Nas Composite 50 points.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Friday 8:30 Non Farm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings, 10:00 Factory Orders. Monday US Markets are closed. Tuesday 10:00 ISM Non Manufacturing PMI. Wednesday nothing due out. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, 11:00 Crude Oil Inventories, 3:00 Consumer Credit. Friday 10:00 Wholesale Inventories.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Friday nothing due out. Monday and Tuesday nothing due out. Wednesday pre market FDO and after the bell WDFC. Thursday pre market COMS, HELE, ISCA and after the bell LWSN, NUHC. Friday pre market PSMT and nothing after the bell.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
29 June, 2009
Tuesday closed the day very red for the broader markets on heavy volume. The days volume was very heavy and increased as the day progressed and continued lower. The TRIN closed at 6.06 the highest for the year, the next closest close was May 20th at 4.38. The VIX moved 17.68% on the day to close at 34.13, still under the 6/8/10 37.38 highs. Gold closed the day up $4.10 to $1242.70 an ounce and oil down $2.31 to $75.94 a barrel.
The day started with a gap down and continued to flush throughout the day. The market closed off the lows leaving the last hour to be the best bounce of the day. The daily candle pierced through the lower Bollinger band on each of the broader indexes. Leaving a small lower shadow for a hammer on daily chart for a support candle. Wednesday will have to trade higher to confirm that candle on the day. The big range on the day is likely to be very digestive into Wednesday. The stochastics on the daily indexes reached 10 or lower, leaving us oversold. RSI is nearing 30, CCI -180 area for each. That leaves the market exhausted. A gap lower would put us very oversold and exhausted looking for a bounce. A strong start maybe sold into early and then become narrow and digestive.
With the huge TRIN over 6 and the big move in the VIX, that also leaves us to look for some early upside to come in. Es back over 1046 and the NQ 1785 could lead to some exhaustive month end buying. On the weekly charts 38.2% support is nearing: the Nasdaq Composite 2050.23, Nas 100 1667.82, S&P 500 1006.99 and the Dow 9396.61 fib support is the big area below us. February lows are just over those levels to be watched: COMPX 2100.17, NDX 1712.89, and the Dow 9757.55 years low are under us. The SPX fell through the 1040.78 prior years lows, leaving it as the only index to retrace all the years gains. Look for an early bounce and for weakness to continue if economic data continues to disappoint.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Wednesday 8:15 ADP Non Farm Employment Change, 9:00 FOMC Member Duke Speaks, 9:45 Chicago PMI, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, Tentative Treasury Currency Report. Thursday 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI, 10:00 Pending Home Sales, 10:00 Construction Spending, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing Prices, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, All Day Total Vehicle Sales. Friday 8:30 Non Farm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings, 10:00 Factory Orders.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Wednesday pre market APP, AM, MON, and after the bell APOL, SCHN, XRTX. Thursday pre market STZ and FLOW. Friday nothing due out.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
22 June, 2009
Tuesday closed the day on the lows in the red and we had a pick up in volume for a distribution day. Monday's fall was on light volume, but Tuesday's had more participation. The VIX closed at 27.05 just under the 27.44 10dma and the TRIN very bearish at 3.82. Gold closed the day up 10 cents to $1240.80 and oil down 71 cents to $77.90 a barrel.
The Nasdaq Composite closed under 2264.49 38.2% and the SPX dropped 1096.68 38.2% support. The NDX held over 1869.81 38.2% and the Dow held 10274.60 38.2% support. The Dow and the SPX dropped the 200dma's with this drop. The market is still holding over the lows from last week which are getting a lot closer with today's drop. Monday's fall had a bounce late day to bring the market off the lows, Tuesday's drop didn't bring in a late day bounce. Showing no short covering and short term the indexes are oversold.
The ES fell under 1093.5, leaves us to see if the market remains under that key support and moves onto 1071.50 still well below us. The NQ has 1873.75 support then onto 1833.50 for big key levels. The TF fell through 648.20 38.2% support and now if the index stays below that key support we look for 631.10 support. The NQ did not drop 1873.75 38.2% support so the ES and TF could move back through that support to not confirm today's drop. Tuesday did test the daily pivots and bounced off them quickly.
Into Wednesday the market is not going to be in a hurry to bounce with no urgency in the bears to cover shorts. However, the TRIN did close over 2..well over at 3.82. That extreme move along with the oversold conditions we left at the close an early bounce to work some of this move off should be expected. Don't rule out continuation to the downside once the bounce is sold into. The Fed statement in the afternoon is probably going to give us the lunch doldrums and keep us in range until we see any statement change. I am not expecting a rate change, but we may have some indication of when the Chairman is thinking about changing rates.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Wednesday 10:00 New Home Sales, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 2:15 FOMC Statement, 2:15 Federal Funds Rate. Thursday 8:30 Core Durable Goods Orders, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Durable Goods Orders, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Final GDP, 9:55 Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Revised UoM Inflation Expectations.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Wednesday pre market RAD, SMTS and after the bell BBBY, DRI, NKE, PAYX. Thursday pre market DFS, LEN, MKC and after the bell FINL, HRB, ORCL, PALM, RIMM, SMSC. Friday pre market AZZ, KBH and nothing after the bell.
NDX (Nasdaq 100) closed -15.30 at 1880.54. Support: 18709-1869.81, 1834.01 200dma. Resistance: 1901.57, 1919.17 50dma, 1943.75, 1970.70.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
20 June, 2009
Friday delivered a very narrow range day, the narrowest since April 26th which was the peak of the 2010 move up. Although Friday did close modestly green the tiny range was on higher volume than the market had seen on Thursday. The market was stalling and playing tug of war for quadruple witching to go out with a whimper. The TRIN closed at 1.00 and the VIX at 23.95 about 18% off the 10dma (watch for 23.14 200dma). Gold closed up $6.80 to $1258.30 and oil up 39 cents to $77.18 a barrel.
Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday all closed in range and left the three possible reversal candles in range. The Nasdaq 100 sits into the 50dma while the Nas Composite, S&P 500 and the Dow sit just under 50dma. The week closed higher and broke the three week range by a very small move up. Tuesday's advance was the gain on the week, every other day was so narrow it just held the move. That leaves the market ready for a move and the bulls in the right seat. Having said that with the VIX so far off the 10dma and the TRIN over 1 4 of the last 5 days. An early pullback into 38.2% of the weeks range would be an orderly pullback. If the market holds that level the continuation is to the upside and we'll need the upper Bollinger to open up for a test of the 50dma's on the SPX and Dow.
Futures did not test the weekly pivot last week. The daily were hit and miss throughout the week too. A gap up could be exhaustive and then bring a pullback. I would rather see the pullback without a gap, but that still leaves the market in need of a pullback. The winding move the market had for three days is leaving us ready to move in a volatile way.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Monday nothing due out. Tuesday TBA Geithner Testifies on TARP, 10:00 Existing Home Sales, 10:00 HPI m/m, 10:00 Richmond Manufacturing Index. Wednesday 10:00 New Home Sales, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 2:15 FOMC Statement, 2:15 Federal Funds Rate. Thursday 8:30 Core Durable Goods Orders, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Durable Goods Orders, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Final GDP, 9:55 Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Revised UoM Inflation Expectations.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Monday nothing pre market and after the bell SONC, SCS. Tuesday pre market CCL, JEF, WAG and after the bell ADBE, JBL, RHT. Wednesday pre market RAD, SMTS and after the bell BBBY, DRI, NKE, PAYX. Thursday pre market DFS, LEN, MKC and after the bell FINL, HRB, ORCL, PALM, RIMM, SMSC. Friday pre market AZZ, KBH and nothing after the bell.
SPX (S&P 500) closed +1.47 at 1117.51. Support: 1110.19 200dma-1108.79, 1090.89, 1072.29. Resistance: 1130.29, 1139.15 50dma, 1151.41
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
15 June, 2009
Tuesday brought a nice rally across the broader markets on heavier volume than the markets saw on Monday. That leaves us with an accumulation day on the NYSE and Nasdaq, the first since May 21st for both indexes. We've had such split volume it has been one sided and unbalanced. The TRIN closed at .25 the lowest level on the year and the VIX at 25.87 about 17% off the 10dma. Gold closed up $11.50 to $1236 and oil up $1.82 to $76.94 a barrel.
The bullish day closed on the highs and had a nice bullish A/D and U/D lines. The Semi's, hardware and internets took the lead today and never looked back. Financials underperformed and did keep the SPX on a slower track. Overall the day was healthy across the board and with this low TRIN close we can expect some follow through. The Dow and SPX also cleared the 200dma, the first close over since May 19th. NDX, COMPX, SPX and the Dow all closed just over the 38.2% fib resistance we have been watching since Monday. Now the broader markets have to stay over that key level that is not support. A close back under those levels would not confirm this break and put the bears in charge. (38.2% Dow 10330.70, SPX 1109.17, NDX 1872.30 and COMPX 2291.32)
The early data is likely to set the days tone. After the big advance on Tuesday we can also look for digestion and a pullback. The market has been very range bound and is not trying to move out of range. Breaking Tuesday's highs will take the market higher and closer to the 50dma's overhead. Only the NQ gave the daily pivot a look, the ES and TF did not take a look at them. It is very unusual to not test the daily pivot and now the Es has missed it for two days. I will look for 1104 to get many tests for a rotational zone on the ES Wednesday.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Wednesday 8:30 Building Permits, 8:30 PPI, 8:30 Core PPI, 8:30 Housing Starts, 9:15 Capacity Utilization Rate, 9:15 Industrial Production, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 CPI, 8:30 Current Account, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:00 CB Leading Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday nothing due out.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Wednesday pre market APP, FDX, SMTS and after the bell IHS. Thursday pre market ATU, DFS, KR, PIR, SFD, WGO and after the bell INXI, SMOD. Friday nothing due out.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Wednesday's pivot 1104, weekly pivot 1070. Intraday support: 1103.75, 1101, 1094.75, 1090.25, 1085.50 fills gap. Resistance: 1113.50, 1117.75, 1121, 1124.25, 1135.25, 1141.75
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
13 June, 2009
Friday left a nice move to the upside for the bulls, but on lackluster volume once again. This volume has been decreasing throughout the week. Going into quadruple witching we should see volume increasing so keep that on watch for next week. The TRIN closed at 1.07 which is bearish, giving me some concern about the days lift on light volume. The VIX closed at 28.79 which is almost 12% off the 10dma. Gold closed up $7.80 to $1230 and oil down $1.70 to $73.78 a barrel.
The weekly chart left support hammers right in the same range the market has parked for three weeks. Holding over the May lows is key and with Thursday and Friday's advance the market was able to hold and leave another support candle. Indicators on the weekly indexes look to be flattening out, they have been pointed down so a flattening out is needed to turn up when we sit in range. Not seeing that sharp �V� turn when you the market is range bound is normal and expected. That requires patience to break and move up for that cross up on the stochastics, MACD, CCI and RSI.
Looking at the daily charts the CCI moved into positive territory on Friday, RSI is moving up, stochastics are pointed up and the MACD turned up. The Nas 100 and Nas Composite closed just over the 200dma on Friday. Monday will have to see continuation with another advance and increasing volume to confirm this move. Not selling off Friday was the first step, the second is seeing continuation. The first spot of resistance is the June 3rd gap left open on the broader markets and then onto 38.2% fib resistance. Dow gap 10255.28, 200dma 10313.29, 10330.70 38.2% and support to hold over is 9757.55. SPX gap 1105.67, 1107.95 200dma, 1109.17 38.2% resistance levels and support 1042.17. NDX 1872.30 38.2% and 1895.66 fills gap for resistance and the support to hold over is 1824.48 200dma and 1770.46. COMPX 2291.32 38.2% and gap fills 2303.03 for resistance and support will be 2139.46.
Monday could be a light day on the market, with no economic data and plenty of reason to digest the advance on Friday could leave us a little on the quiet side. I don't expect any big surprises at this point, but we've woke to some very unusual Monday's lately. So expect anything is now the way we start out week. Barring any world wide �issues� we'll look for a quiet start on Monday. A minor pullback and continuation to the upside is my bias from here. My son informed me that the USA keeping England to 1-1 is a very lucky event for the world, so we'll go with that and look for a move out of the three week range this week. (By the way my son is 11 and sees the world through a soccer ball, so take the view Monday it is round and bounces).
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Monday nothing due out. Tuesday 8:30 Empire State Manufacturing Index, 8:30 Import Prices, 9:00 TIC Long Term Purchases, TBA NAHB Housing Market Index. Wednesday 8:30 Building Permits, 8:30 PPI, 8:30 Core PPI, 8:30 Housing Starts, 9:15 Capacity Utilization Rate, 9:15 Industrial Production, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 CPI, 8:30 Current Account, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:00 CB Leading Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday nothing due out.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Monday pre market CHDX and after the bell LZB, MDZ, RENT. Tuesday pre market BBY, FDS and after the bell CLC. Wednesday pre market APP, FDX, SMTS and after the bell IHS. Thursday pre market ATU, DFS, KR, PIR, SFD, WGO and after the bell INXI, SMOD. Friday nothing due out.
SPX (S&P 500) closed +4.76 at 1091.60. Support: 1073.12, 1061.30, 1052.89, 1040.78 5/25 lows, 1023.13, 1006.99. Resistance: 1107.95 200dma-1109.17 38.2%, 1130.29, 1145.15
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
9 June, 2009
Wednesday brought a nice opening with some buying to continue Tuesday's advance, however mid lunch the market started to drift lower and accelerated the sell off to close red. The volume was slightly lighter than Tuesday's. The VIX closed at 33.73 and the TRIN at 1.29 bearish on the day. Gold closed down $15.40 to $1230.20 an ounce and oil up $2.39 to $74.38 a barrel.
Into Thursday we'll kick off the morning with early data and get onto Futures rollover as the market opens. We can expect volume to be split between the June (M) and September (U) contracts. That can create a little tug of war with volume being split for the first hour. Once through that first 30-60 minutes we can look for things to settle in and be fairly normal. The June volume will decrease and be insignificant to us after that first hour.
The reversal on Wednesday pulled the rug on the bulls. The market remains in range and just over Tuesday's lows. A break of Tuesday's lows leaves the market to look for the February lows. The ES did test the weekly pivot Wednesday, the NQ and TF did not. The ES back over 1061.50 and onto 1067.75 should be looked at as bullish. The NQ 1792.75 and onto 1804.50 resistance targets for early strength. The market returned to the sell into strength, we'll watch for that until we see the weeks high break. That would convince us that the bulls are around for longer than a bounce. Otherwise we look for the lows and onto February lows.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Thursday 8:30 Trade Balance, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, 2:00 Federal Budget Balance. Friday 8:30 Core Retail Sales, 8:30 Retail Sales, 9:55 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, 10:00 Business Inventories.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Thursday pre market APWR, DLM, LULU, SCHS and after the bell FNSR, INXI, NSM. Friday nothing due out.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Thursday's pivot 1061.50, weekly pivot 1077.75. Intraday support: 1052.75, 1049, 1047, 1041.25, 1038.50 5/25 lows, 1031.25, 1025.25, 1021.25-1020.25. Resistance: 1061.50, 1067.75, 1072, 1077.75, 1080.25, 1085.75, 1090.75, 1094.25
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
6 June, 2009
Friday closed the day in the red on slightly higher volume. The day sold off and became heavier throughout the day with very shallow bounces until the bell finally saved the day. The TRIN closed at 2.34 very bearish and the A/D along with U/D lines closed near the lows. The VIX closed at 35.48 just over the 10dma. Gold closed up $7.20 to $1217.20 and oil down $3.10 to $71.51 a barrel.
The Nasdaq Composite is under the 200dma, Nas 100 closed just over it leaving us stuck in the tug of war still. The SPX and Dow fought with the 200dma all week and still remain under that key moving average. The indexes sit just over the May 25th lows, that is the key support. Below that support moves us back to the February 5th lows. The market still has fear and the unknown keeps rocking the boat with some of the EU countries. The RSI and CCI turned down on each index, the stochastics are tipping down and the MACD is also trying to turn down. Follow through to the downside would allow the stochastics and MACD to turn down and open up. The market has set in this range for two weeks marking time.
Into next week we have a lot of economic data and a very wound up market. After two weeks in range it is time to see some movement. Until the market breaks there is no clear direction, but after Friday's close an early bounce onto Monday should be watched for. The ES back over 1077, NQ 1853 and TF 646.20 would open the door to the bulls camp. A break of the May 25th lows will likely head significantly lower. The NQ still has a gap open at 1791.50 because it lagged the ES and TF in this drop, they filled those gaps already. The semiconductors hold just over the 200dma which has helped the NQ to hold up better than the banks or brokers. We will watch for any change in tech and a drop to 340.38 200dam on the SOX. Banks are into the 200dma 47.82, brokers have been under for weeks. A weak start Monday and an early bounce is where we look.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Monday 3:00 Consumer Credit. Tuesday 8:25 FOMC Member Duke Speaks, 10:00 IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, 7pm FOMC Member Hoenig Speaks. Wednesday 10:00 Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies, 10:00 Wholesale Inventories, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 2:00 Beige Book, 4:00 Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks. Thursday 8:30 Trade Balance, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, 2:00 Federal Budget Balance. Friday 8:30 Core Retail Sales, 8:30 Retail Sales, 9:55 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, 10:00 Business Inventories.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Monday pre market GIII and after the bell CHP, FCEL, PBY, THO. Tuesday pre market DG, TLB and after the bell PLL, TUTR, TTWO. Wednesday pre market CIEN, TITN, MTN and after the bell MW, SHFL. Thursday pre market APWR, DLM, LULU, SCHS and after the bell FNSR, INXI, NSM. Friday nothing due out.
COMPX (Nasdaq Composite) closed -83.86 at 2219.17. Support: 2193.28, 2176.26, 2140.53, 2100.17. Resistance: 2248.65, 2287.10-2291.32, 2322.07-2337.91 50%, 2384.49-2388.12 50dma.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
2 June, 2009
Wednesday erased the last two days of losses on the broader markets. Volume came in mixed again today with the NYSE lighter and the Nasdaq higher than Tuesday's performance. Futures were all lighter than Tuesday's volume. The TRIN closed very bullish at .29 and the VIX at 30.17 on the lows of the day. Gold fell $4.30 to $1222.60 and oil up 28 cents to $72.86 a barrel.
The day took the build the steam slowly approach to moving up and putting in nice gains across the board with very healthy market breadth. The indexes still sit under 38.2% fib resistance that will be key resistance to watch for. Dow 10341.20, SPX 1109.17, and the COMPX 2291.32 are the levels to watch for. The NDX 1872.30 38.2% did clear by 7 points. Now the index will need to stay over that level. The CCI is into 0 line on the daily charts, RSI is rising, stochastics are all pointed up and the MACD tipped up with the rally today. The market has set in range for four days and now has the job's data nearing. Our first glimpse will come from ADP and that is likely to give the market reason to move out of the four day range.
With the big VIX move and the incredibly low TRIN close I will look for some retracement into Thursday. Then for the trend to the upside to continue, UNLESS the ADP report gives the market something to worry about. I am not expecting any big surprises from Job's this week and leading into Friday's job's numbers from the government we are likely to see an active final 90 minutes. I don't think the market wants to get ahead of itself but we did see a nice test and hold of support below us on the 25th. That lets the bulls have the floor if we can move out of the four day range.
ES over 1106.75 last weeks high needs to clear for the ES to get moving into 1121. The NQ came through 1874.25 and now we can look for 1894.75 overhead. A drop through 1079.5 would give the ES a look down into the 1061.25 gap still open. The NQ should hold over 1849.25 or look for 1830.75 to get another test. The TF has 663.30-667.70 resistance and support at 646.60 and onto 636.40 gap fill if that doesn't hold.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Wednesday 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts, 10:00 Pending Home Sales, All day Vehicle Sales. Thursday 8:15 ADP Non Farm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Revised Nonfarm, Productivity, 8:30 Revised Unit Labor Costs, 10:00 ISM Non Manufacturing PMI, 10:00 Factory Orders, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, 11:00 Crude Oil Inventories, 11:15 Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks, 12:15 FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks, 1:15 FOMC Member Hoenig Speaks. Friday 8:30 Non Farm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Wednesday pre market DAKT, MDCI, ROLL, UNFI and after the bell APSG, CWTR, HOV, JOSB. Thursday pre market JOYG, STP, UTIW and after the bell COO, DCP, MATK, TTWO, ULTA. Friday pre market BTH, MPR and after the bell nothing due out.
NQ (Nas 100 e-mini) Wednesday's pivot 1845, weekly pivot 1826.50. Support: 1860.75, 1855, 1849.25, 1845, 1841, 1832.25-1831.50. Resistance: 1881.50-1883.25, 1891, 1894.75, 1903-1905, 1907.25, 1915, 1925
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
1 June, 2009
Friday closed the day red across the broader markets, the week closed the NDX, COMPX, SPX green and the Dow red. Volume fell off on Friday, going into a three day weekend that was to be expected even though it was the last day of the month. The TRIN closed at 2.38 very bearish and the VIX at 32.07 about 10% under the 10dma. Gold closed the day down 20 cents to $1211.70 and oil down 63 cents to $73.92 a barrel.
The Nas Composite, S&P 500, and the Dow had inside down days on Friday. The Nas 100 traded through Thursday's highs, but closed within Thursday's range and red. The indexes still have a gap open overhead from May 19th and one open from May 26th below Friday's close. Both will provide magnets for the market and also look to for support/resistance. The daily charts on the broader indexes have the CCI just under 0 line resistance, MACD the lines are together and tilted up, stochastics are crossed up, RSI is pointed up on each. That opens the door for the upside, but not without some drag on the move. The SPX and Dow both sit just under the 200dma, while the NDX and COMPX sit over the 200dma.
The final hour sold the market off and that was more nervousness about holding through a three day weekend. The market doesn't know what can happen so looks for profits in the unknown. Uncertainty makes the market nervous and not knowing if another Greece, Portugal or Spain could happen is unnerving. Also the South Korea incident wasn't far from investors mind and just getting through May was enough for the week. Moving into Tuesday we can look for a higher move on the markets IF there aren't any incidents over the weekend. NDX 1872.30, COMPX 2291.32, SPX 1109.17, Dow 10341.20 resistance should be watched for on any strength. The weekly pivot is under Friday's close and will be a rotational point on futures. Shortened weeks tend to move in spurts and take a little effort to get moving on Tuesday morning. So be patient and look for some upside early Tuesday.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Tuesday 10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI, 10:00 Construction Spending, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing Prices. Wednesday 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts, 10:00 Pending Home Sales, All day Vehicle Sales. Thursday 8:15 ADP Non Farm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Revised Nonfarm, Productivity, 8:30 Revised Unit Labor Costs, 10:00 ISM Non Manufacturing PMI, 10:00 Factory Orders, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, 11:00 Crude Oil Inventories, 11:15 Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks, 12:15 FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks, 1:15 FOMC Member Hoenig Speaks. Friday 8:30 Non Farm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Tuesday pre market nothing due out and after the bell PSS, SNDA. Wednesday pre market DAKT, MDCI, ROLL, UNFI and after the bell APSG, CWTR, HOV, JOSB. Thursday pre market JOYG, STP, UTIW and after the bell COO, DCP, MATK, TTWO, ULTA. Friday pre market BTH, MPR and after the bell nothing due out.
NQ (Nas 100 e-mini) Tuesday's pivot 1851.25, weekly pivot 1826.50. Support: 1847.50, 1842.50, 1835.75, 1826.50, 1822.25, 1817.50, 1809.25, 1796.25, 1786.50. Resistance: 1855, 1859, 1862.50, 1867.75-1868.25 fills gap, 1873.75, 1881.50, 1894.75
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
24 May, 2009
Tuesday closed the market with a modest loss on the Nas Composite and Dow, the S&P 500 along with the Nas 100 closed green. Although the day looks modest for the loss and gain, the days range was very large and a big reversal day. Closing on the days highs after being blood red on a very weak opening is a big day. The TRIN closed at .47 very bullish and the VIX at 34.61 just over the 34.20 10dma. Gold closed the day up $3.80 to $1197.80 and oil fell $1.46 to $68.75 a barrel.
The weak opening left the day looking for buyers on a big dip. It took the market a few running starts to get moving and it did take the full day to fill the gaps. However, that does show the bulls stepped in and the accumulation day on the SPX and NDX do show participation and the COMPX and Dow just missed the green close. The daily candles are nice support candles and possible reversal candles. Keep in mind we had that on Friday and that didn't confirm, so we need an up day to follow this move to confirm and give the market some confidence. Today's shake was off more European concerns and South Korea, that market now can digest this and try to advance.
The weak opening brought the market to very oversold levels and the day could be an oversold bounce and not confirm. The volume was steady throughout the day and the drop of last weeks low and to snap back in range is a good sign that it is more than shorts covering. A gap up on Wednesday could lead to a gap and go move, don't be quick to fade the move. If it sets up for us to fade we will, but the buying could come in and hold the gains. The daily pivots on futures did not test, that leads us to look for the PP to be more of a magnet into Wednesday. That would require a drop back into Tuesdays range and not let the market run to the upside with a pullback.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Wednesday 8:30 Core Durable Goods Orders, 8:30 Durable Goods Orders, 10:00 New Home Sales, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 8:30 Prelim GDP, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Prelim GDP Price Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Core PCE Price Index, 8:30 Personal Income, 8:30 Personal Spending, 9:45 Chicago PMI, 9:55 Revised Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 UofM Inflation Expectations.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Wednesday pre market AEO, FRED, TOL, ZLC and after the bell DBRN, HOKU, NTAP, TTWO, PAY. Thursday pre market BIG, COST, HNZ, SNSS, TIF and after the bell ESL, JCG, OVTI, SEAC. Friday pre market FRO and after the bell NCTY.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Wednesday's pivot 1062, weekly pivot 1094.50. Intraday support: 1061, 1056.50, 1052.25, 1049, 1046.25, 1044.25, 1038.50. Resistance: 1077.50, 1082, 1085, 1089.50, 1093.75, 1098.75, 1104, 1110 fills gap-1111.75, 1118.25
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
24 May, 2009
Monday kicked the week off with a modest loss across the broader markets. The volume was about half of Friday's on the NYSE and Nasdaq, futures came in about half as well. The COMPX and NDX traded in a very narrow range and left both indexes right into the 200dma. The SPX is still 30 points off under the 200dma and the Dow is 199 points under. The TRIN closed at 1.86 bearish and the VIX at 38.32.
The market still sits over the May 6th lows and with the Nasdaq indexes performing better than the SPX and Dow left the day in a tug of war. The RSI sits at 33-34, getting close to dropping 30 and becoming oversold. CCI and stochastics are still dropping but the action today started to narrow the bearish opening on them. Financials took the brunt of the days losses and led the SPX to the biggest loss on the broader markets. The days weak close leaves the market with the bears door open. With the market unable to take out Friday's high and the accelerated drop the bears are still holding the cards.
The ES and TF did test the daily pivots, the NQ did test the weekly and no daily. The market can see only the NQ test the weekly and not get the ES/TF to that same level. It doesn't happen often that the markets are so split that we see that, but the NQ was the stronger index today and had the lift while the other two just had no spring to that 1094.50/ 660.40 levels. The 30 and 60 minute futures charts still have a possible inverted head and shoulders, but to see that hold means last weeks low cannot break. The neckline is at Thursday's high and that would lead into the gap overhead. A drop of the lows from the 21st is likely to open the door to a bigger fall and let the market become very oversold before we see a bounce. A weak opening watch for exhaustion to bounce us back into the gap, but not necessarily fill. We've seen some nice reversals off weak openings, but that isn't required with the new sell the bounce we are seeing come into the market.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Tuesday 9:00 S&P/CS Composite 20 HPI, 10:00 Consumer Confidence, 10:00 HPI, 10:00 Richmond Manufacturing Index, 11:15 FOMC Member Bullard Speaks, 8:30 pm Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks. Wednesday 8:30 Core Durable Goods Orders, 8:30 Durable Goods Orders, 10:00 New Home Sales, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 8:30 Prelim GDP, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Prelim GDP Price Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Core PCE Price Index, 8:30 Personal Income, 8:30 Personal Spending, 9:45 Chicago PMI, 9:55 Revised Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 UofM Inflation Expectations.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Tuesday pre market AZO, FLO, MDT, and after the bell DY, TIVO. Wednesday pre market AEO, FRED, TOL, ZLC and after the bell DBRN, HOKU, NTAP, TTWO, PAY. Thursday pre market BIG, COST, HNZ, SNSS, TIF and after the bell ESL, JCG, OVTI, SEAC. Friday pre market FRO and after the bell NCTY.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Tuesday's pivot 1076.50, weekly pivot 1094.50. Intraday support: 1066.75-1065.50, 1062, 1059.25, 1051.25. Resistance: 1077, 1081.50, 1084.50, 1088.50, 1092.75-1093.75, 1097.50, 1104, 1110 fills gap-1111.75, 1118.25
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
19 May, 2009
Wednesday closed the day in the red across the broader markets. Volume once again came in for a distribution day. That is two consecutive distribution day's and four in the last eight trading days. The TRIN closed very low at .53 and the VIX at 35.32 mid range. That TRIN is very low for the losses the market had and given the mid level close tells us the selling had some buying mixed in there. Gold closed down $20.60 to $1194 and oil up 46 cents to $69.87 a barrel.
Into Thursday with the neutral close the market had with the spinning tops giving the market a rest day. The indexes closed and tested the gap support that was left open from the 7th. The SPX also fell into the 200dma and held that support. Retesting that drop on the 6th and 7th and holding that support is good for the market. Now it could also be a digestive pause, but the support held on the first test and pulled off the lows nicely. With the low TRIN I am not overly bearish with this drop and a little suspect of what we'll see. With the SPX getting to the 200dma before the Nasdaq or Dow, the market could very well find some buyers.
The Senate did not get a vote to move forward with the FINREG, which I think is a good sign for financials. We'll see if they find some relief early Thursday. HPQ held up well despite the rest of the big cap tech stocks closing red. That too can lead to some positive catch up movement. Semiconductors did close green on the day which is also optimistic. Now don't think I'm buying with two hands, I'm just not shorting quickly into Thursday. The market is holding ground and it was a digestive day after a reversal day Monday, trend day Tuesday, we deserved that today with some zigzag action.
Early data Thursday will likely create some nice movement and a bracket of Wednesday's range will let the market look for continuation into the second half of the week. The ES needs to hold over 1100.25 and the NQ over 1848.50 to hold the support. The SPX at 200dma 1102.16 is also a line in the sand for the market. A drop there would likely accelerate the market to test the lows from the May 6th drop.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:00 CB Leading Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, Friday 7:00pm FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Thursday pre market PLCE, CSC, DLTR, GME, ROST, SPLS, TGT, TTC, WSM, and after the bell BRCD, DELL, GPS, INTU, MRVL, SHLD, SKIL, WTSLA. Friday pre market ANN, HIBB and nothing after the bell.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Thursday's pivot 1110.50, weekly pivot 1143.75. Intraday support: 106.25, 1103, 1100.25 61.8%-1098.75, 1090, 1081 78.6%. Resistance: 1117.50, 1123.25, 1126.75, 1135-1137, 1144, 1147.50-1148.50, 1150.50
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
17 May, 2009
Monday started the day very weak and until 12:00 it looked like the day would be blood red. At noon the market started to crawl off the lows and finished the day green across the broader markets. The volume fell off from Friday's and left the market a little lackluster even on the reversal. The TRIN closed neutral at .94 and the VIX with a big shooting star on the day closed at 30.84. Oil fell $1.53 to $70.08 a barrel and gold down 50 cents to $1227.30 an ounce.
With Fridays close and such extremes on the TRIN and VIX we looked for the early bounce, which just did not come in. It was the noon reversal that brought the market some buyers, that is unusual to see a 3 TRIN close and no bounce, but the overnight session took some the wind out of that sail and just never gave us that pop. Very disappointing because it is usually an easy trade and gives a lot of opportunity for positioning on the day. Instead of being easy the bus was hard to find at times and very choppy along the way. The daily candle on the broader markets is a nice hammer or doji depending on which you look at. That is possibly support and reversal candles in place for this market. I would feel better about them had the market brought in volume for those strong candles, but now we look for confirmation with a higher closing candle to follow.
The strong close didn't have the volume or power I would like to see for follow through into Tuesday morning. However, good news out of the economic data could help to see a stronger opening. The 50dma's are still over head and confirmation of Monday's support candle is needed with follow through into Tuesday. Futures did test the daily pivot and did not test the weekly. Which leaves those still overhead with the ES at 1143.75, NQ 1921.25 and TF 690.80.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Tuesday 8:30 Building Permits, 8:30 PPI, 8:30 Core PPI, 8:30 Housing Starts, 12:20 FOMC Member Pianalto Speaks. Wednesday 8:30 CPI, 8:30 Core CPI, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 12:00 ECB President Trichet Speaks, 2:00 FOMC Meeting Minutes. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:00 CB Leading Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, Friday 7:00pm FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Tuesday pre market ANF, DKS, HD, KIRK, SKS, TJX, WMT and after the bell ADI, DY, HPQ. Wednesday pre market BJ, DE, and after the bell AMAT, ADSK, HOTT, KONG, NTES, PETM, SNPS. Thursday pre market PLCE, CSC, DLTR, GME, ROST, SPLS, TGT, TTC, WSM, and after the bell BRCD, DELL, GPS, INTU, MRVL, SHLD, SKIL, WTSLA. Friday pre market ANN, HIBB and nothing after the bell.
COMPX (Nasdaq Composite) closed +7.38 at 2354.23. Support: 2339.35, 2310.02, 2280.69, 2265.64 fills gap. Resistance: 2384.63, 2420.98 50dma, 2432.87, 2460.48, 2535.28
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
13 May, 2009
Thursday closed the day red across the broader markets on split volume. The NYSE came in lighter than Wednesday and the Nasdaq was slightly heavier than Wednesday's participation. The ES and TF were lighter and the NQ was heavier. The TRIN closed at 1.90 on the days highs and the VIX closed at 26.68 on the days highs. Gold fell $10.10 to $1233 an ounce and oil fell $1.25 to $74.40 a barrel.
After breaking the 50dma yesterday we went into Thursday looking for confirmation, however that didn't come with this drop. The broader markets dropped below the 50dma and leaves the market under resistance. The day also engulfed yesterdays lift, another down day would confirm a reversal pattern and leave a higher low on the markets. That would leave the market looking for lower ground. The 50dma does leave a very good line in the sand for the upside, a break there would open the bulls door back up.
Futures watch 1930.50 for the NQ, ES 1150 and the TF 693.60 for support on any weakness into Friday. Friday is the biggest economic day of the week and some of the data can be market moving. That is likely to be where our volatility comes from into the final day of the week. With Thursday's action spending most of the day neutral and the late day drop accelerating, I will look for early weakness to find support and then a range to finish the day in. I thought the TRIN might get us over 2 for an early bounce but not quite there but that doesn't mean we won't see some nice retracement once we hit support under us.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover) Friday 8:30 Core Retail Sales, 8:30 Retail Sales, 9:15 Capacity Utilization Rate, 9:15 Industrial Production, 9:55 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, 10:00 Business Inventories.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Friday pre market JCP and nothing
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Friday's pivot 1160.75, weekly pivot 1121.75. Intraday support: 1154.75-1153.75, 1151.50 fills gap-1150, 1144.75-1144.25, 1136.50, 1127.50. Resistance: 1160.75, 1165, 1169.50, 1172.50-1173, 1182-1183.25-1185.50, 1188.25, 1193.50, 1198.50, 1200
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
10 May, 2009
Friday finished the day with an inside down day helping to digest Thursday's drop. The Nas Composite, Nas 100, S&P 500 and Dow held just over the 200dma after piercing that support on Thursday. Volume was lighter than Thursday's but still enough to see participation in the market and more than we had in the first half of the week. The TRIN closed at 2.37 bearish and the VIX 40.95, which was not an inside day. Gold closed up $15.70 to $1213 and oil down $2.00 to $75.11 a barrel.
Daily charts on the broader markets have the RSI at 28-29, stochastics turning up and the CCI coming off -200+. With Friday closing lower that leaves stochastics and the CCI with divergence and the RSI oversold. On the weekly charts this drop confirmed the prior weeks bearish engulfing candle. The drop also left the market back to the February 28th range. The slow crawl higher was erased in a few trading sessions. On the weekly charts the CCI is crossing the 0 line into negative territory for the first time since the first week of February. The RSI has fallen off the 76 level two weeks ago to 48. Stochastics came off the overbought conditions and crossed down along with the other indicators after the last two weeks of selling.
Now we know where we sit and can look forward to next week. Economic data is lighter this week and we are seeing more second tier stocks report earnings throughout the week. Friday's range although an inside bar was still very wide. That makes bracketing the inside bar difficult because we are well beyond our average daily range with the move on Thursday and Friday. Volume was also skewed with this big moves, which makes Monday harder to read. Greece is still hanging out there too and will keep us a little wary until there is some resolution with their debt. Outside of any big news event I expect to see upside retracement on Monday.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover) Monday nothing due out. Tuesday 10:00 IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, 10:00 Wholesale Inventories. Wednesday 8:30 Trade Balance, 10:15 FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 1:15 FOMC Member Bullard Speaks, 2:00 Federal Budget Balance. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Import Prices, 9:00 FOMC Member Kohn Speaks, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, 12:30 Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks. Friday 8:30 Core Retail Sales, 8:30 Retail Sales, 9:15 Capacity Utilization Rate, 9:15 Industrial Production, 9:55 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, 10:00 Business Inventories.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Monday pre market BRK.B, DF, NGS, PETS, TSN, TSN, USM and after the bell DENN, DOLE, IPAR, LM, PAAS, PCLN, TWTC, WINN. Tuesday pre market ABK, BPZ, NICE, and after the bell ERTS, SPWRA, TIE, DIS. Wednesday pre market M, XIDE, and after the bell CSCO, DRYS, WFMI. Thursday pre market CAE, KSS, SNE, URBN, WEN and after the bell ADPT, BBOX, CA, DDS, JWN, NVDA,VSAT. Friday pre market JCP and nothing
SPX (S&P 500) closed -17.27 at 1110.88. Support: 1095.74 200dma, 1082.01-1081.65, 1065.79. Resistance: 1142.80, 1160.97-1170.36, 1186.84
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
6 May, 2009
Thursday the market sold off all morning and the after session brought in a huge move with the markets literally jumping off a cliff and rebounding to recoup some of the losses. At 2:35 the market started on a fall that was one like falling off a cliff, the market did recoup those losses by the close on futures, but it was one wicked drop. We still closed very red and the ride down was one that triggered stops on any long folks were holding and definitely struck a nerve around the world. The cause is said to be a fat finger erroneous trade, but there is no fat or skinny finger pointing at exactly who or what at this point. The after hours did bring news out of the NYSE and Nasdaq about busting trades. Any trade on the NYSE and Nasdaq at 2:40-3:00 that traded more than 60% off will be canceled. Volume left a distribution day across the broader markets. The TRIN closed at 1.43 and the VIX at 32.80 the highest close since May 15th, 2009. Gold rallied $18.70 to $1193.70 and oil down $2.86 to $77.11 a barrel.
Into Friday the market is likely to be very jittery and slow to do a lot with conviction. If this was really an error, retracement of the move is likely to come in. This left the market with divergence, oversold conditions and about any extreme you can think of. Even if this last move of the day had not come in, the market was already blood red and heavy enough so that would have closed ugly even without the additional move off whatever really did cause it. I've seen a handful of trading errors in my career and it is always some HUGE order that stirs the pot that causes the problem, but in addition to those type of moves I've also seen fund usually a hedge fund of some sort liquidating and causing huge moves. This is by far the largest single day move though. So we can assume this is another odd event and move on from it.
I would expect some upside early on and for the market to have a hard time finding any momentum. So I'll look for a choppy trading day and for the Job's data that isn't likely to be front and center with this going on. Greece is still hanging over the market and until we see a vote on a bailout, which is suppose to come Friday we won't know where we stand. Keep in mind it could fail like the TARP in the US did the first time around. The market didn't like that as I recall, so that could deliver a rollercoaster. Once we have the upside move the market may sit and even chop lower. Usually these moves retest, that low is along way off so it won't happen in a day is my thought on that. But it is likely to happen over a period of time.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover) Friday 8:30 Non Farm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings, 3:00 Consumer Credit.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Friday pre market AES, CF, HUN, SUG, TTI and nothing after the bell.
SPX (S&P 500) closed -37.75 at 1128.15. Support: 1111.46, 1094.96 200dma, 1082.01. Resistance: 1142.80, 1160.97-1170.36, 1186.84
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
5 May, 2009
Wednesday closed the day red across the broader indexes. Volume came in mixed with the NYSE slightly heavier than yesterday and the Nasdaq was slightly lighter. Futures came in lighter too. The VIX closed at 24.91 after rejecting 26.22 78.6%. The TRIN stayed in a very narrow range to close at .96 neutral on the day. Gold closed up $5.80 to $1175 and oil fell $2.77 to $79.97 a barrel.
The Nasdaq Composite at 2402.29 closed just 5 points under the 50dma. The Nasdaq 100 closed at 1958.26 about 2 points over the 50dma. The S&P 500 closed at 1165.87 about 2.5 points under the 50dma. The Dow closed about 34 points over the 50dma. All indexes pierced the lower Bollinger band on daily charts and all have the CCI over -200, RSI 41- 44, MACD and stochastics are pointed down and still have some room to move. That CCI is oversold, the RSI is close and the piercing of the lower Bollinger along with the 50dma and 38.2% supports so close. The market is sitting very near key support at those 38.2% levels -- COMPX 2369.07, NDX 1927.05, SPX 1152.84 and Dow 10714.50.
Tuesday the market had a nice VIX/TRIN bounce early on to fill the gaps off the weak opening. Now the VIX has a big spinning top off 78.6% resistance, that along with the spinning tops we have on the broader markets leaves the market with indecision and nearby support. Unless the VIX can clear 26.22 a pullback should come in that would push the market higher. Greece is still headline news and oil sinking kept the bulls from taking hold of the market today. However, the expansion on Tuesday left us to look for a narrow range on Wednesday and that was delivered to us. Thursday and Friday the market has economic data to push it around and we'll continue to watch the Greece news unfold as the EU comes to a vote on aid.
Futures did not test the daily pivot, Tuesday didn't test either. That is unusual to not see the daily pivot for two days. Which leaves Thursday to be a key area and a magnet most likely. We will probably see a lot of rotation off the daily pivots ES 1164, NQ 1954.25 and TF 699.80. Es back over 1178.25, NQ 1981.5 and TF 712.60 would likely ignite the bulls, but rejection there will give us another leg down.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover) Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Prelim NonFarm Productivity, 8:30 Prelim Unit Labor Costs, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Non Farm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings, 3:00 Consumer Credit.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Thursday pre market ATPG, FNM, FTO, MGM, OMG, OHI, QLTI, SLE, SKYW, and after the bell ADPT, AIG, BEBE, NILE, CEC, HANS, KFT, MRX, NVDA, TS, WTW. Friday pre market AES, CF, HUN, SUG, TTI and nothing after the bell.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
2 May, 2009
Friday closed the day down, the week marked the biggest loss since the week of January 31. Nervousness over the global financial pressures sparked some profit taking. Volume was split again today with the NYSE higher and the Nasdaq lower on the day. Thursday the NYSE was lighter and Nas higher. We are just seeing some rotation and nothing real consistent in this drop. However, the semiconductors (SOX) lost 4.54% on the day putting the weight on the Nasdaq. The TRIN closed at 2.20 and the VIX at 22.05, 20% off the 10dma. Gold closed up $12.20 to $1181 and oil up 98 cents to $86.15 a barrel.
The weeks drop engulfed last week leaving a possible bearish engulfing pattern. CCI, RSI and Stochastics all closed down on the broader indexes. The drop also brought the weekly charts off the upper Bollinger band that we've been skating up for weeks. This was the biggest VIX move the market has seen since the week of January 31st. The Nas Composite, Nas 100, S&P 500 and Dow have all been trading on the years lows alternating days in a channel on the high but with no follow through on pullbacks. Friday marked the first close under the 10dma and 20dema since February on the indexes.
Nas Composite watch 2441.65-2416.19 support, Nas 100 1988.07-1968.68, SPX 1178.44-1167.20, and the Dow at 10932.70. With a drop like we saw on Friday the mid point on the day is now key resistance. Monday an early bounce is likely to come in with the TRIN over 2 and the VIX so extreme. That mid point is the key, if the market can't retrace beyond that point we'll look for continuation to the downside. The supports outlined above would provide a ledge for another move lower. If the Goldman probe continues and we keep seeing downgrades like Spain, Portugal, and Greece this week. This market may continue to show some nervousness and give us some correction. The week ahead will give us some insights into the Job's numbers. The market needs to see improvement and will look to Wednesday to start seeing that data released.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover) Monday 8:30 Core PCE Price Index, 8:30 Personal Spending, 8:30 Personal Income, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI, 10:00 Construction Spending, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing Prices, Total Vehicle Sales all day. Tuesday 10:00 Pending Home Sales, 10:00 Factory Orders. Wednesday 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts, 8:15 ADP Non Farm Employment Change, 10:00 ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Prelim NonFarm Productivity, 8:30 Prelim Unit Labor Costs, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Non Farm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings, 3:00 Consumer Credit.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Monday pre market DNDN, GAS, and after the bell APC, EOG, PFG, UTI, VOLC. Tuesday pre market ADM, BZH, BYD, COCO, CVS, DPZ, DUK, EE, HNT, MRO, MMC, MA, MRK, NYX, OSG, PFE, PNCL, SU, THC, TEVA, and after the bell ATML, CEPH, DLLR, ERTS, ESLR, IPI, JCOM, ONXX, TIE, TRLG, XL. Wednesday pre market AGU, DVN, GRMN, ICE, PHM, Q, TWX, UPL, WCG, XTO and after the bell BMC, CECO, ERES, GDP, JDSU, LVS, MCHP, MUR, NVEC, ONNN, PACR, PRU, QSFT, SMSI, RIG. Thursday pre market ATPG, FNM, FTO, MGM, OMG, OHI, QLTI, SLE, SKYW, and after the bell ADPT, AIG, BEBE, NILE, CEC, HANS, KFT, MRX, NVDA, TS, WTW. Friday pre market AES, CF, HUN, SUG, TTI and nothing after the bell.
COMPX (Nasdaq Composite) closed -50.73 at 2461.19. Support: 2441.65, 2416.19, 2394.59 50dma, 2369.07 38.2%. Resistance: 2518.29, 2535.28, 2549.94 6/1/8 swing high, 2617.29.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
30 Apr, 2009
Thursday closed the day on the highs and right back to the area we fell from on the Greece/Portugal news on Tuesday. The advance left the market with a lighter volume lift on the NYSE and heavier volume on the Nasdaq. The TRIN was high until the final hour and it fell off to close at .79. The VIX closed at 18.44 just off the 17.94 lows from Tuesday. Gold closed the day at $1166 down $5.80 and oil closed up $1.95 to $85.17 a barrel.
The action was a little choppy off the opening today, the market was at a tug of war with sellers and buyers. That was evident by the high TRIN throughout the first half of the day. After the bell CSTR, PWER, WYNN all traded up nicely off earnings, MFE, QLGC, MXIM, MET all traded lower off earnings. The big shocker for the market after the bell came with Goldman Sachs (GS), yep more BS with GS (sorry that was too easy). The fed's are now involved and looking into criminal wrong doing, not just the civil case that the market was already digesting. GS closed at $160.18 and barely a change after the initial drop and then rebound. Futures didn't hold as steady and showing some concern. We may see more as Europe opens with the Greece, Portugal and Spain problems leaving the market with wobbly legs and now this.
Going into a Friday with uncertainty is the last thing the market wants. I will look for some pressure early on the market. If there isn't any we look for the bulls to say�SEE none of it matters. I won't hold my breath awaiting that comment, but you all know what I am saying. We have shrugged off some really surprising stuff lately, so this may or may not be another blip on the screen. We are likely to find out early in the day just how much the market can shrug off. I think we see selling pressure and then find some range to finish the day in. I don't have a lot technically to base that off, the market is trending up and strong. Indicators are still headed up and if we clear Tuesdays highs that erases the week's drop and the ship sails north. So my thought it we see the pressure off the uncertainty.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover) Friday 8:30 GDP, 8:30 Advanced GDP Price Index, 8:30 Employment Cost Index, 9:45 Chicago PMI, 9:55 Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Revised UoM Inflation Expectations.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Friday pre market AGN, CVX, DHI, LPNT, NDAQ, VFC and nothing after the bell.
NQ (Nas 100 e-mini) Friday's pivot 2033.50, weekly pivot 2030.50. Support: 2032.25, 2028.75, 2022.75, 2016.50, 2010, 2006.75, 2001. Resistance: 2042.75, 2046.50, 2053, 2057.25, 2060.50
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
27 Apr, 2009
Tuesday brought in the turn around like we haven't seen since February 4th. The market was hit in the head with the Greek Tragedy, mid morning Sovereign debt was downgraded on Portugal and Greece. The market used the news as a catalyst to pullback. The fall pushed the VIX to 22.81, which was the largest percentage gain in a single day in over 18 months. Volume came in fast and furious, it is a game of musical chairs when the market starts to rollover. Gold picked up some safe haven action and closed up $8.20 to $1162.20 and oil closed down $1.76 to $82.44 a barrel. The Goldman Sachs hearings were ongoing throughout the day and just ended about an hour ago into the late evening. I think they will send Greece some money for a bailout with the distraction that provided the market with�that is a joke. The almost 11 hours of testimony was crazy, but I don't think the market learned anything to scare it into a drop. It was the downgrade off Greece that did it for the market and the 8 weeks of UP action.
Futures fell through support level after support level, even closed below S3 and that is a very rare occasion. The weekly pivots were tested and we fell through those. We finally got the pullback we need to see. Now as the ES sits on 1179.5 support the next key level is 1171 and onto 1167.75. The NQ watch the 1997.75 and then onto 1983.50. The TF has 716.90 and onto 709.30 levels to watch for below us. Early on I would expect some relief bounce to come in. For the ES look for 1189.5-1192.50, the NQ 2017.50-2021 and the TF 727.10-728.60 as we bounce early on.
The TRIN closed at 3.38 and the VIX is about 32% off the 10dma. That gives us every reason to look for a bounce early on. Now that doesn't mean we won't see the selling resume once we bounce or a weak opening and the market bounce and sit. It is a Fed day and the afternoon could be volatile. However, when we have a big range expansion following a NR7 day some digestion is usually needed. An opening move to retrace some of the losses and then sit in range would not be that surprising. Hearing from the Fed maybe another catalyst for the market though, so we will wait for that statement to see if any changes were made.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover) Wednesday 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 2:15 FOMC Statement, 2:15 Federal Funds Rate. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 GDP, 8:30 Advanced GDP Price Index, 8:30 Employment Cost Index, 9:45 Chicago PMI, 9:55 Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Revised UoM Inflation Expectations.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Wednesday pre markets APU, BCRX, GLW, DOW, GD, HES, IACI, JBLU, MSO, MHS, PFCB, SAP, SO, S, WLP, and after the bell BIDU, CRA, FSLR, GG, LSI, OII, RYL, SUNH, TSRA, VAR, V, XLNX. Thursday pre market AEP, BJS, BG, CAH, CELG, CME, COP, XOM, HP, HURN, IMAX, IP, K, MOT, MYL, GAS, NS, OMX, ZEUS, PTEN, POT, PG, HOT, TSM, WM, and after the bell AEM, HIG, KLAC, MXIM, MET, PDLI, QLGC, SUN, TSO. Friday pre market AGN, CVX, DHI, LPNT, NDAQ, VFC and nothing after the bell.
NDX (Nasdaq 100) closed -42.84 at 2006.25. Support: 2003.80, 1988.37, 1927.05 38.2%. Resistance: 2023.33, 2037.11, 2046.92, 2072.34, 2100, 2196.17, 2239.23 Oct highs.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
25 Apr, 2009
Friday closed the day/week on the highs. The week has some weak starts on the day and each day managed to shake it off and lift. The range wasn't huge, but still left the market sitting at new highs on the week for the year across the broader markets. Friday's volume came in lower than Thursday's and left the day a little lackluster. The TRIN closed at 1.23 on Friday and had a weeks average of 1.16. Gold closed the day up $10.40 to $1153.30 and oil up $1.42 to $85.12 a barrel.
On the weekly charts the Nas Composite closed at 2530.15 just over 2519.97 78.6% resistance. Another week over that key fib resistance would open the door to the 2861.51 October 2007 highs. The Nas 100 spent another week over 1982.68 78.6% confirming the prior weeks break. 2205.18 is the October 2007 on the Nas 100 for the next big level, but before we get to that level we have the May/June 2008 highs here at 2055.82. The market spent 5 weeks at that level and ended up falling. The RSI on the Nas Composite and Nas 100 closed the week at 76, the CCI is flat at 117ish, MACD is pointed up and stochastics are flat at 96. Both indexes are into the upper BB on the weekly and over extended.
The weekly on the SPX has an RSI at 72, stochastics at 94, MACD open to the upside, CCI flat at 114 with divergence on the week and into the upper Bollinger band. The SPX is into 1226.74 61.8% fib off the October 2007 highs to the March 2009 lows. While the Nasdaq indexes are well ahead of the SPX this is still a key level. The Dow is also lagging back and sits at 11246 61.8%. The Dow had divergence on the CCI for the week, RSI is at 72 and stochastics are at 95. These two indexes are also extended on the weekly chart with the Nasdaq.
Being extended isn't necessarily a sign of the top, it is just a sign the market is rising with some struggle. The intraday pullbacks kept working the shorter term intraday overbought conditions off. Which helps the market to keep lifting in small steps and will keep volatility low which is just off the 15.23 lows from 4/12/10. With a Fed meeting this week and a lot of other economic data due we should see similar action to what we had last week. Earnings will continue to roll out and be watched closely for forward guidance.
Futures closed Friday well over the upcoming weeks weekly pivots. A flat opening would be ideal on Monday but with the Greece news still hanging out there Sunday's globex session could change our view into Monday. As we sit now I will look for a pullback Monday and for the session to quiet down into Wednesday's Fed announcement. A test of the weekly pivots Monday would allow for a nice pullback and setup for another leg up. It is the final week for April and that should help volume to come in and stay steady throughout the week. Watch the 61.8% levels close on the SPX and Dow and the NDX needs to stay over 78.6% for this advance to continue.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover) Monday nothing due out, Tuesday 9:00 S&P/CS Composite 20 HPI, 10:00 Consumer Confidence, 10:00 Richmond Manufacturing Index. Wednesday 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 2:15 FOMC Statement, 2:15 Federal Funds Rate. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 GDP, 8:30 Advanced GDP Price Index, 8:30 Employment Cost Index, 9:45 Chicago PMI, 9:55 Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Revised UoM Inflation Expectations.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Monday pre market BLK, CAT, HUM, SOHU, TZOO, and after the bell ALB, AMP, BSX, ELX, RSH, TXN, VECO, WMS. Tuesday pre market MMM, BP, CIT, CMI, DD, F, LXK, MHP, NEM, ODP, OXPS, TLAB, TYC, X, UAUA, UA, UPS, LCC, VLO, and after the bell BRCM, DWA, NSC, PNRA, ULTI. Wednesday pre markets APU, BCRX, GLW, DOW, GD, HES, IACI, JBLU, MSO, MHS, PFCB, SAP, SO, S, WLP, and after the bell BIDU, CRA, FSLR, GG, LSI, OII, RYL, SUNH, TSRA, VAR, V, XLNX. Thursday pre market AEP, BJS, BG, CAH, CELG, CME, COP, XOM, HP, HURN, IMAX, IP, K, MOT, MYL, GAS, NS, OMX, ZEUS, PTEN, POT, PG, HOT, TSM, WM, and after the bell AEM, HIG, KLAC, MXIM, MET, PDLI, QLGC, SUN, TSO. Friday pre market AGN, CVX, DHI, LPNT, NDAQ, VFC and nothing after the bell.
SPX (S&P 500) closed +8.61 at 1217.28. Support: 1204.44, 1190.87, 1154.79 50dma- 1151.28. Resistance: 1228.74 61.8%, 1265.12, 1309.67.
TradeWithLogic's Daily Market View Point - Teresa (Teresa's Profile)
21 Apr, 2009
Wednesday another narrow range day that spent most of the day chopping around. The Nas Composite, Nas 100, and the Dow closed slightly green on the day on heavier volume than Tuesday delivered. The S&P 500 closed modestly red on heavier volume than Tuesday delivered. The TRIN closed bearish at 1.74 and the VIX at 16.32 which is about mid range on the day. Gold closed up $4.80 to $1144 and oil down 17 cents to $83.68 a barrel.
The market continues to sit under the years highs, although Apple did help to prop the market up today. Mixed results after the bell with SNDK, SBUX, NFLX up nicely and EBAY, QCOM, ISIL all selling off. Futures reacted mildly to the downside off the releases after the bell, unlike the huge reaction on AAPL yesterday. Market breadth did not support the upside move today with the TRIN at 1.74, that is certainly showing there was some profit taking going on. The U/D and A/D lines were neutral throughout the day.
Into Thursday the market has the first look at economic data this week. Earnings continue to rollout and the range is stuck digesting near the years highs. The Semi's were weak on the day and that should be closely watched into Thursday. The Nasdaq will struggle to get far without that participation. The ES continues to wrestle with 1204 and until that clears we won't be looking for the bulls. Through 1204 and onto 1211 and 1214.75 would be where the bulls head. Under 1185.5 and we look for 1179.5 and onto 1171 for support on the ES. The NQ under 2005.75 look for 1997 and 1985.75 is likely.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover) Thursday 8:30 PPI, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Core PPI, 10:00 Existing Home Sales, 10:00 HPI, 10:30 Natural Gas. Friday 8:30 Core Durable Goods Orders, 8:30 Durable Goods Orders, 10:00 New Home Sales. Saturday IMF meetings (Greece concerns likely to be a focus).
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Thursday pre market ALK, ABC, BG, CAL, CY, FITB, F, ESI, LLL, MAR, NOK, NUE, BTU, PENN, PEP, PNC, PFS, RS, LUV, SU, TASR, TRA, UNP, VZ, WSO, ZMH and after the bell AMZN, AXP, COF, CAKE, DECK, IGT, LSCC, MSCC, OSIP, PMCS, RMBS, STMP, STM. Friday pre market CMS, HON, IR, SLB, TRV, XRX and nothing after the bell.
SOX (semiconductor) closed -4.29 at 391.42. Support: 388.98, 385.03, 381.07. Resistance: 394.10, 395.88, 397.47, 398.58
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